Jump to content

Blogs

Dividend Adjustments 09 July - 13 July

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 9th July 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  NB: Special Divs are highlighted in orange  Special Dividends No special dividends this week. How do dividend adjustments work?  As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is effected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

JamesIG

JamesIG

'Bellwether' copper slides - EMEA brief 6th July

Trump tariffs now in effect, however markets have generally priced this in. Fed hints at last nights FOMC that it could raise rates twice more this year. Greenback gains removing some of the earlier gains from GBPUSD. Carney warns that Trumps trade tariffs could damage the global economy knocking up to 2.5 percentage points of global growth over three years, but has warned Trump that these tariffs will hurt the US the most. Carney still upbeat about UK growth. New figures show that UK high street retailers could suffer the ‘worst year on record’. Copper extends losses on worries about global growth. The metal, seen as a bellwether of economic health, has hit a fresh 11 month low in London's LME. This week alone the metal has shed nearly 5% which has put it on it's steepest weekly drop since mid November 2017. Asian overnight: Asian markets were in surprisingly positive mood overnight, as a dovish Fed meeting helped ease any fears over the ramp up in tariffs between the US and China today. The imposition of tariffs on $34 billion worth of goods in either direction have done little to market sentiment, with much of the implications seemingly priced in. However, we have since seen Donald Trump mention the possibility of adding another $300 billion on top of the $200 billion in goods already mentioned in the past. Markets are however gaining despite this trade war result, suggesting that perhaps the news has already been priced in. The rebound in global markets should be treated with caution as we await further retaliation from China and the suggested escalation from the US regarding this matter. Overnight data saw Japanese household spending fall, while average cash holding improved significantly. UK, US and Europe: A busy day for the US follows a relatively quiet economic calendar in Europe, with one of the main figures already released in the form of the German industrial production number (2.6% from -1.3%). The focus for most will be the US and Canadian jobs report, with markets set to see whether the headline NFP number will follow the ADP figure lower. With market expectations of a September already elevated, todays jobs figures will add another important piece of that puzzle for traders. South Africa: South Africa's local equity market is expected to initially follow gains in the US and Asia, although could trade tentatively into the US employment data releases this afternoon. South Africa's gold and foreign exchange reserves for June 2018 were reported to have been recorded at slightly lower levels than in the previous month. The rand has managed to claw back some strength today which is expected to aid gains in local banking and retail counters. BHP Billiton is trading 0.85% higher in Australia this morning suggestive of a positive start for local resource counters. Tencent Holdings is up 0.26% in Asia, suggestive of a marginally positive start for major holding company Naspers, although the stronger rand may temper some of these gains.  Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) 1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (June): payrolls expected to fall to 190K from 223K, while the unemployment rate holds at 3.8%. Average hourly earnings forecast to be 0.2% higher MoM, from 0.3%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

1.30pm – Canada employment data (June): 17,500 jobs expected to have been created, from a 7500 fall in May. Unemployment rate to hold at 5.8%. Market to watch: CAD crosses

3pm – Canada Ivey PMI (June, seasonally-adjusted): forecast to fall to 60.7 from 62.5. Market to watch: CAD crosses Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Glencore, the copper, nickel and iron ore mining specialist, announced it will initiate a $1bn share buy back scheme. Stobart said that it had started the year ‘satisfactorily’, and has also announced a new five-year lease partnership with Ryanair.  Rolls-Royce has sold its commercial marine business to Norwegian firm Kongsberg for £500 million.  Eurazeo upgraded to buy at HSBC
ITV upgraded to buy at SocGen
Petra Diamonds raised to buy at Panmure Gordon & Co
Shell upgraded to buy at DZ Bank Daily Mail downgraded to sell at SocGen
Direct Line cut to equal-weight at Barclays
Esure downgraded to underweight at Barclays
Pearson downgraded to hold at SocGen Featured Video from IGTV Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

JamesIG

JamesIG

Chart updates, crypto pairs, and weekend funding

IG Product Update July 2018 We recently made a post on Community showcasing a number of ways you can leave feedback and suggest improvements regarding our products and services. I wanted to follow up with our first ever ‘Product Update’ post so you can see some of the recent improvements we have made on the back of our continued two way communication which has helped IG become the global leader.    The recent updates include, Partially close positions via charts Market name watermarks for all charts New ether/bitcoin (ETH/BTC) crypto pair (and vote on which NEW crypto asset you are most interested in) Changes to weekend overnight funding An improved way to get in contact with Trading Services   Partially close positions via charts This brand new feature is now available on charts for both the web trading platform and on mobile. When ‘1-click dealing’ is not enabled you will be able to confirm whether or not you want to close the whole position, or to partially close via a pop up dialogue box. To use this functionality click 'close' (1) on the chart, change the 'Sell' value (for example in this screenshot you can change 4 to 2 to only close half the position), followed by 'Submit'. The window will show the ‘Closing P&L’ as well as the ‘Margin Returned’.    Market name watermarks for all charts To add clarity and ease of use it is now possible to display the name of the market in the background of the charts. This feature is disabled by default but can be activated from the “customise appearance” menu which is brought up by right clicking on the chart, ticking the “show watermark” checkbox, and clicking 'Apply'. Once activated every charts will start showing the market name. The watermark will also be displayed on the image produced using the “export chart” option. This should be an incredibly useful feature for those who have a number of charts open at the same time, as well as those who share their chart set ups online, with friends, and on IG Community.   New ether/bitcoin cryptocurrency pair The ETH/BTC pair has been a tradable cryptocurrency asset on the IG platform for a couple of months and is calculated by taking the mid-price of ether and dividing it by the mid-price of bitcoin. We then adjust the decimal (in much the same way as we do for our FX pairs) to make the number easier to trade on the IG platform. A single point is anything to the left of the decimal. For example; Ether price:   440 USD
Bitcoin price:   6150 USD
ETH/BTC:   440 / 6150 = 0.07154
IG platform price:   715.4
One point means:   A price move from 715.4 up to 716.4 (or down to 714.4) would be one point.
  This is a great addition to our cryptocurrency offering as it gives a new way to gain exposure to the sometimes volatile market conditions of virtual currencies. Unlike trading other highly correlated cryptos, the ETHBTC pair gives a different trading opportunity which trend followers, technical analyst, and fundamental traders alike may enjoy.  We are also looking to our IG Community members and other IG clients to see which new crypto asset they are interested in (which IG doesn't currently offer). You can check out this poll to vote on which new crypto asset you are most interested in. Feel free to add comments and questions to the post if you would like to chat further. 
  Changes to weekend overnight funding We have also changed overnight funding on cryptocurrency positions held over the weekend. Previously, we were charging three nights funding on Wednesday to account for the weekend (in the same way as the majority of conventional FX pairs are calculated on a T+2 basis), but seeing as we offer these markets on Saturday and Sunday it is more appropriate to charge on a daily basis. We will also begin charging overnight funding for weekend index positions held through 10pm (UK time) Saturday and Sunday. The charges will be calculated in exactly the same way as our weekday indices. It’s also worth noting that anyone with AUD denominated contracts will be charged based on their positions at 10pm (UK time).   An improved way to get in contact with Trading Services If you have ever had a query relating to your IG account, your trade activity, or the financial markets then it’s likely you’ve spoken to one of our Trading Services representatives. Over the last couple of years we have also rolled out IG Academy, a Help and Support Centre, and a new IG Community to better answer your questions. Recently we have rolled out a brand new ‘Contact Us’ page on IG.com. This page contains a web browser contact form which will automatically allocated your contact query to the correct department, increasing the speed of a resolution and reply.     I hope you find the above updates useful.
You can find out how to submit feedback to IG here if you want to continue to help shape the future of IG.
Any questions, just ask.   

JamesIG

JamesIG

USD soft going into FOMC - EMEA brief 5th July

Asian markets fall for the fourth day and major currencies are generally trading in a tight range.  MSCI Asia-Pacific index down 0.5% whilst Japan's Nikkei (the Japan 225) loses 1%. USD slightly softer going into US Initial Jobless Claims and FOMC minutes later today. Gold is holding steady before Fed minutes, whilst copper and zine are stuck near their one year lows on trade woes. Oil prices fall as Trump slams OPEC on twitter and blames the cartel for rising gas prices. This issue has been raised a number of times over the last few weeks as it could cause a major issue for the 'Trumphouse' going into the November midterms. Meanwhile China's duty on U.S. crude looms. Goldman Sachs are still bullish on Commodities as a whole and believe trade war fears have been overdone. "All of these concerns have been oversold. Even soybeans, the most exposed of all assets to trade wars, is now a buy." Clarification by the FCA on PPI compensation could means UK banks may have to add to the £45bn they’ve already set aside for claims. FMOC later today. Asian overnight: Asian markets traded lower once more, as market sentiment continues to suffer in anticipation of the impending Sino-US tariffs on $34 billion worth of goods. Yesterday’s tweet from Donald Trump calling for lower oil prices has had a knock on effect to the equity markets and tempered some of the gains seen through the week thus far. UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the focus shifts from the UK to the US, with yesterday’s Independence Day meaning we will see markets on the other side of the Atlantic play catch up with Europe. Appearances from BoE governor Carney and ECB member Mersch will be the highlights for Europe, with markets more focused on the plethora of data points out of the US. ADP payrolls data, composite, manufacturing and services PMI figures in the afternoon pave the way for the latest FOMC minutes. Keep an eye out for the dollar for the impact of the days economic releases, while stock markets will be closely followed for how much they will follow yesterday’s lead in Europe. South Africa: After yesterdays public holiday, US futures are trading flat this morning while Asian markets continue to find short term pressure lending itself to a flat to lower start on our local bourse this morning. The dollar is trading relatively flat while commodity prices, which have a relatively large impact on the local SA index, trade mostly lower ahead of the US implementation of trade tariffs on China. BHP Billiton is trading 0.54% lower in Australia furthering the notion that we will see a softer start on locally listed resource counters today. Tencent Holdings is trading 0.5% lower on the Hang Seng, suggestive of a similar start for major holding company Naspers this morning.  Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) 1.15pm – US ADP employment report (June): expected to rise to 180K from 175K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 30 June): forecast to be 221K from 227K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3pm – US ISM non-manufacturing PMI (June): forecast to fall to 58.2 from 58.6. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 4pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 29 June): expected to see stockpiles fall by 1.6 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI 7pm – FOMC minutes: these will provide further insight into the Fed’s decision to raise rates, as well as the shift on the committee that resulted in the dot-plot suggesting four rate hikes in 2018, from the previous three. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades China’s ZTE has received a 30 day trade ban relief from Trump. The US provide a third of the components needed by the smartphone manufacturer who have seen a 60% decline in share price wiping off $11bn from the company valuation since the trade war talks. Anglo American sees volatility spikes on take over rumours. Anglo American Platinum Limited (SA) has accepted an offer from Royal Bafokeng Platinum Limited ("RBPlat") to purchase its 33% interest in the Bafokeng Rasimone Platinum Mine joint venture (“BRPM JV") for a total purchase consideration of R1.863 billion. Associated British Foods said its full-year outlook was unchanged, as improvement at Primark is cancelled out by weakness in its sugar division. Group revenue for the 40 weeks to 23 June was up 3% overall, and 2% at actual exchange rates. Primark sales were up 6% on last year, but AB Sugar revenue was 17% lower.  Purplebricks suffered an adjusted operating loss of £21.3 million, despite strong growth in the UK and Australia. This compares to a £5.1 million loss in 2017.  Glencore has announced a $1 billion share buyback, which will run from today until the end of the year.  EasyJet carried 7.9 million passengers in June, up 2.3% from a year ago, while the load factor rose to 95.4% from 94.8%.  Aegon upgraded to buy at HSBC
Bauer upgraded to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
Tullow upgraded to overweight at Barclays
Daimler upgraded to buy at Bankhaus Lampe Hapag-Lloyd downgraded to neutral at Citi
Kappahl downgraded to reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
Munich Re downgraded to neutral at JPMorgan
Soco downgraded to underperform at RBC Featured Video from IGTV Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

JamesIG

JamesIG

US markets closed - EMEA brief 4th July

Asian overnight: Another bearish session overnight saw Chinese and Hong Kong indices lead the decline, with the first round of tariffs on Chinese goods set to take effect on Friday. The recent decline in the yuan was arrested, with strong dollar selling pressure from Chinese banks looking like intervention from the Chinese authorities. Australian data came in mixed, with a strong retail sales reading counteracted by a lower than expected trade balance figure. Meanwhile, the Chinese Caixin services PMI rose sharply, driving the measure to rise from 52.9 to 53.9.

UK, US and Europe: The services PMI theme looks set to continue, with European nations releasing their own version throughout the morning. The big focus will be upon the UK services PMI figure, with the release playing a key part in dictating GDP estimates for Q2. Meanwhile, the US markets are closed as the country celebrates Independence Day. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) 9.30am – UK services PMI (June): expected to fall to 53 from 54. Markets to watch: FTSE 100/250, GBP crosses Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Sainsbury’s said that sales rose 0.8% in Q1, and were up 0.2% on a like-for-like basis. Price cuts had helped to boost performance.  SIG reported a 0.6% rise in first-half revenue, with currency improvements offsetting bad weather. Revenue was flat on a like-for-like basis.  National Express has secured a €1 billion contract to operate buses in Morocco, with 500 buses carrying 109 million passengers a year across 61 routes.   Topps Tiles suffered a 2.3% drop in like-for-like sales in the 13 weeks to 1 July. BN FP upgraded to outperform at RBC
GFT upgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
Petra Diamonds upgraded to outperform at RBC Brunello Cucinelli downgraded to hold at Berenberg Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.  

JamesIG

JamesIG

Sharp Asian declines - EMEA brief 2nd July

Asian overnight: Sharp declines overnight are pushing the bulls out the way and the overnight session looks to be paving the way for a bearish start to the week in Europe, with circa 2% losses across Japanese and Chinese markets. The Hang Seng market was closed for a bank holiday while the Australian ASX 200 managed to limit the losses. Trade wars are back on the agenda as a key concern for markets, with a European Commission statement against car tariffs making little difference to sentiment for now. Data wise, we saw the Japanese Tankan manufacturing survey fall from 24 to 21, while the Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI number moved slightly lower, to 51.0 (from 51.1).

UK, US and Europe: The manufacturing focus remains today, with a host of final manufacturing PMI readings from a host of eurozone countries leading into the initial UK figure for June. With Canadian markets on holiday, the focus is on the US, where once again it is the manufacturing surveys which take precedence. South Africa: After strong gains on Friday, the local bourse looks set to open up weaker today after the Asian markets poor performance on Monday. Friday's gains can in part be attributed to quarter end window dressing, although the underlying market pressures of trade war concerns and a flight from emerging markets remain. A strengthening dollar is seeing precious metals, the rand, and oil trading lower this morning. BHP Billiton is trading 0.9% lower in Australia, suggestive of a softer start for local resource counters. The weaker rand is expected to weigh on local banking and retail counters on open.  Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) 9.30am – UK mfg PMI (June): expected to fall to 53.5 from 54.4. Market to watch: GBP crosses 10am – eurozone unemployment rate (May): forecast to fall to 8.4% from 8.5%. Market to watch: EUR crosses 3pm – US ISM mfg PMI (June): expected to fall to 58.3 from 58.7. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Tesco has announced a strategic buying partnership with Carrefour, that will involve joint purchasing of own brand products and goods.  Meggitt upgraded annual revenue guidance, thanks to a stronger than forecast performance in Q2. Organic revenue growth for the year through December is expected to be 4-6% from 2-4%.  Aeroports de Paris raised to overweight at JPMorgan
Chargeurs upgraded to buy at AlphaValue
Cloetta upgraded to buy at SEB Equities
Novo Nordisk upgraded to outperform at Bernstein
Investec upgrade Capitec Holdings (SA) to buy with a target price of 103400c
Investec upgrade Impala Platinum (SA) to buy with a target price of 2500c Eurofins Scientific cut to reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
Infineon downgraded to underweight at Barclays Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

JamesIG

JamesIG

Dividend Adjustments 02 July - 06 July

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 2nd July 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 
NB: Special Divs are highlighted in orange  Special Dividends You can see the special dividends listed below. Unfortunately we do not have granular insight on the effect on the index for the index in question, however the below maybe helpful for some. Please note the dates below are the stock adjustments in the underlying, whilst the index div adjustments are taken out the day before on the IG platform at the cash close. How do dividend adjustments work?  As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is effected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

JamesIG

JamesIG

Big macro data day - EMEA brief 29th June

Asian overnight: A wildly varied session overnight saw losses for the likes of the Nikkei 225 and ASX 200 counterbalanced by strong gains in the Shenzhen composite (2%) and Hang Seng (1.3%). The euro gained sharply overnight, as an agreement at the EU summit over immigration was seem to appease hard line anti-immigration leaders, and crucially ease the pressure on Angela Merkel. On the data front, a raft of Japanese economic figures saw improved inflation, unemployment, industrial production, and housing starts.

UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the economic calendar looks to set up a busy day, with the release of the final UK GDP reading, alongside the flash eurozone CPI reading for June. With yesterday’s GDP reading from the US was revised lower from 2.2% to 2.0%, there is going to be of particular interest for this UK figure. Meanwhile, with the ECB heavily reliant upon the trajectory of inflation, traders should be watching out for the CPI figure as a driver of euro volatility. In the US session, watch out for the release of US personal income and spending, which will be hugely important given the influence of domestic consumption as a driver of US growth. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar   Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Serco said that it expects underlying trading profit for the first half to rise by 20%, but that revenue for the period would be around £1.35 billion, down from £1.51 billion a year earlier.   BAE Systems has won a $35 billion contract to provide nine new frigates for the Royal Australian Navy. Production is expected to begin in the early 2020s.  Allianz raised to overweight at JPMorgan
BAE upgraded to neutral at JPMorgan
Swatch upgraded to buy at Citi Ageas downgraded to hold at SocGen
Amer Sports downgraded to reduce at Inderes
Bpost cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
Hunting cut to underweight at Morgan Stanley Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

JamesIG

JamesIG

EU summit discussion - EMEA brief 28th June

Asian overnight: A mixed session in overnight markets came after the White House pulled plans to restrict Chinese acquisition of US technology, helping ease trade war fears that continue to dominate market sentiment. Interestingly, we still saw Chinese stocks fall, with the Shenzhen and Shanghai composite indices trading within the red. Once again, we saw the Australian ASX 200 gain ground amid a resurgence for crude prices. The Yen was largely flat over the session, with a weak retail sales reading (0.6% from 1.5%) offset by demand for the haven currency. Meanwhile, the RBNZ decided to keep rates unchanged as expected, with no shift in rates expected for some time yet.

UK, US and Europe: The focus for the European session will be the latest EU summit, where Brexit is likely to remain one of the key topics of discussion, alongside immigration issues which are a thorn in the side of Angela Merkel. The US session sees the final US GDP reading released alongside unemployment claims. However, for the most part markets are likely to instead look to Donald Trump and China for a lead on market bias. South Africa: We are seeing a firming US dollar and US Treasury Yields trading while emerging market currencies and commodities (excluding oil) under pressure once again. In turn we are expecting a lower open on the Jse Top 40 Index this morning. Tencent HOldings is 0.3% lower on the Hang Seng, suggestive of a softer start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton on the other hand has extended short term gains which is expectant of a positive start for its local listing in South Africa.  Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 10am – eurozone business confidence (June): forecast to fall to 1.2 from 1.5. Market to watch: EUR crosses
1pm – German CPI (June, preliminary): expected to fall to 1.9% from 2.2% YoY. Market to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US GDP (Q1, final), initial jobless claims (w/e 23 June): growth expected to be 1.2% YoY and 0.1% QoQ. Jobless claims to rise to 219K from 218K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades JD Sports said that it continued to be confident about the outlook for the current financial year. Further expansion, with emphasis on new international stores, suggest the group is on track to meet full-year expectations.   Greene King reported an 11.2% fall in adjusted pre-tax profit for the full year, to £243 million, in line with forecasts.   BP is to acquire Chargemaster, the UK’s largest charging network for electric cars. It operates more than 6,500 charging points across the UK.   Tullow Oil said that it continued to perform well in 2018, with first-half production averaging 87,400 barrels per day, in line with forecasts.  Wilson Bayly Holme - Ovcon Ltd has said that Lower activity levels persist within local (Africa) building markets, particularly in Gauteng. Performance from the Byrne Group in London was in line with expectations over the second six months.Construction and materials saw strong competition and aggressive pricing persisted during the second half of the year which combined with an increase in non-payment by contractors due to the challenging environment. BP upgraded to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
Infineon upgraded to buy at DZ Bank
KAZ Minerals upgraded to outperform at BMO
OMV upgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux Suez downgraded to hold at Berenberg
Summit Therapeutics cut to hold at Panmure Gordon & Co IGTV - promoted video Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

JamesIG

JamesIG

Oil booms, China bust? - EMEA brief 27th June

Chinese markets hit with yuan slipping to 6 month low and stock market and leading index falling. Oil sees significant positive price action as US pressures allies on Iranian crude oil. Trump hits out at Harley Davidson motorcycles for planning a move of U.S shores on the back of trade tariffs. 'Trading the trade wars' video by IGTV and Bryan Noble is today's featured video below. Gold slips as investors turn to rival safe haven assets. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency consolidating at the support, however no signs or reasons for a bounce as presence. Shares in Tesco and Sainsburys slide on loss of market share.  Asian Overnight: Chinese and Hong Kong indices led Asian markets lower overnight, with a sharp drop in the Shenzhen composite and Hang Seng providing the stand out underperformers amid largely flat trade in Japan and Australia. Rising oil prices provided a boost to energy stocks, with the US putting pressure on other countries to end the purchase of Iranian crude. In particular, this rise in crude prices helped shift the Australian ASX 200 out of the red, with the energy sector rising 1.3%. UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the European session looks likely to focus on the Bank of England once again, coming off the back of last week’s rate decision. An appearance from Carney accompanies the latest BoE financial stability report. The US session will look towards core durable goods orders for their lead, with the latest trade balance data also taking on an important role given recent disagreements over trade. The crude market is also back in focus, with the latest US inventories due out later in the day. NZD traders should also be aware of the latest RBNZ rate decision tonight. When it comes to the Trump trade war tariffs JPMorgan economist David Hensley has stated that they "remain of the view that a large scale "trade war" remains a low probability though the odds of it happening appear to have increased". US Futures and Asian equity markets are trading lower this morning while the dollar and US treasury yields trade firmer. The trade war rhetoric generally continues, although US President Donald Trump looks to have softened his stance slightly saying that he may look to a less confrontational approach with China. South Africa: Precious and base metals trade mostly lower this morning while the rand is slightly softer against the majors. Oil prices have gained post the OPEC decision to raise output as well as supply disruptions in Canada. Tencent Holdings is trading 1.2% lower on the Hang Seng suggestive of a softer start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is up 1.8% in Australia suggestive of a positive start for the local listing thereof.  Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) 1.30pm – US durable goods orders (May): expected to rise 0.2% from -1.7% MoM, while excluding transportation orders forecast to rise 0.5% from 0.9%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – US pending home sales (May): forecast to rise 0.1% from -1.3% MoM. Market to watch: USD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 22 June): stockpiles expected to fall by 5.1 million barrels after falling 5.9 million barrels a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Inmarsat drops over 12% as Eutelsat, the company who were poised for a take over bid, back out just hours after their initial interest as reported in the IG Community EMEA morning briefing yesterday.  Whitbread reported a 3.2% rise in Q1 sales, thanks to new hotel capacity and additional Costa stores. However, sales were down 1.3% in the UK on a like-for-like basis. Progress continues on the Costa de-merger, with progress on core infrastructure and efficiency work.   Ultra Electronics downgraded its first-half profit guidance due to cost overruns at its US defence unit. Expectations for full-year operating profit has been cut by £4-6 million.  Bunzl said that it expected revenue for the first half to be 11% higher at constant exchange rates, while spending on acquisitions so far this year has been £105 million.  Global Credit Ratings (“GCR”) has affirmed the national scale ratings of A-(ZA) and A1-(ZA) to Transaction Capital Limited (SA) in the long term and short term respectively, with the outlook accorded as Stable. Deutsche Bank maintains buy rating on Vodacom (SA) but reduces target to 15000c Adecco upgraded to outperform at RBC
Sainsbury upgraded to overweight at Barclays
Carnival Plc upgraded to buy at Berenberg
Petrofac upgraded to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux BMW downgraded to reduce at AlphaValue
Gima TT downgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
Rubis downgraded to hold at Berenberg
ICG Enterprise Trust downgraded to hold at Jefferies Featured video Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

JamesIG

JamesIG

Nasdaq and USDJPY fallout - EMEA brief 26th June

USDJPY falls on the back of an intensifying trade war dispute. ‘Fang’ stocks and the heavily tech centric Nasdaq slump on the same trade war fears. Turkish lira gains from yesterday gives further reason for overseas investment in Turkey to remain wary. USDTRY looking like it could have entered a period of consolidation after rising nearly 25% from the beginning of the year. Oil prices rise on the Libyan oil export uncertainty, however OPEC still the overarching dampener with plans to raise output.  Gold inching down on US rate hike expectation. Bitcoin at critical level of support previously hit in April and February 2018, and previously November 2017. Asian Overnight: Asian markets traded largely in the red overnight, as marginal gains throughout Japanese indices provided the one standout performer of the session. This follows yesterday's significant market declines where US Indices fell in excess of 1% (Nasdaq more than 2%). Continued fears over the impending breakdown in trade between China and the US ensured that Chinese equities were the worst performer, with the Shenzhen composite trading over 1% lower. On the data front, the BoJ core CPI reading failed to rise as expected, with the data set showing underlying inflation remaining at 0.5%. UK, US and Europe: Another quiet day on the economic calendar sees the release of US consumer confidence this afternoon as the only major event of note. That is not to say that market volatility is going to be low, as evident by yesterday’s sharp selloff throughout European and US indices despite a near empty economic calendar. South Africa: While trade war talks still linger markets look to have stopped the hemorrhaging for now and the local bourse looks to have already priced in much of the overnight weakness. Commodity prices remain depressed and the dollar firm. The rand remains weak although off its worst levels finding directional catalysts from factor external rather than domestic at the moment. BHP Billiton is trading 1% lower in Australia suggestive of a softer start for local diversified resources. Tencent Holdings is 0.3% lower on the Hang Seng suggesting a flat to slightly lower start for major holding company Naspers.  Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) 3pm – US consumer confidence (June): expected to hold at 128. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Inmarsat, the privately listed communications company, has confirmed its considering a bid from Eutelsat. This has helped push the stock, which previously saw prices of 1100p in 2015 and as low as 340p in April of this year, trade above 630p. Eutelsat has until 5pm on the 23rd July to confirm an intention or rule itself out for 6 months. Health conscious millennials have pushed Whittards of Chelsea back in the black yesterday to a net profit of just over a quarter of a million pounds, up from a net loss of £1.4m in 2016. The craze for herbal teas amongst the younger generation, for many at the cost of caffeine based drinks such as coffee, has been an important factor in the turn around. Petrofac said that it continued to trade in line with forecasts, with the year-to-date order book reaching $1.8 billion.  Carpetright said that it suffered an annual loss of £71 million for the year, while borrowing rose sharply due to restructuring costs. Debt rose from £10 million to £54 million.  Polymetal has started its new gold mine in Kazazkstan ahead of schedule. Mining activities had reached full design capacity, and ‘significant’ cash flow and net income contribution should start in Q4 this year.  ASML upgraded to add at AlphaValue
Andritz upgraded to buy at Goldman
Renault upgraded to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
Royal Mail upgraded to sector perform at RBC Eutelsat downgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
Gazprom GDRs cut to neutral at JPMorgan
Deutsche Bank maintains buy rating on Vodacom (SA) but reduces target to 15000c Featured video Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

JamesIG

JamesIG

TRY gains on Erdogan win - EMEA brief 25th June

Global equity markets falter on trade war talk. Turkish lira gains on a presidential win for Recap Tayyip Erdogan. Oil sheds it's gains as OPEC agree on output hike. Saudi Arabia lifts the ban on female drivers which could generate up to $90bn for their economy according to Bloomberg Finance Britain sees its two year anniversary from the Brexit referendum vote. GBP down 11% in that time helping buoy the FTSE and companies who generate the majority of their revenue from overseas. Asian Overnight: Asian markets traded in the red once again overnight, as trade wars fears continue to take their toll on global risk sentiment. With the US said to be preparing to restrict Chinese investment into US business, while warning they could place 20% tariffs on EU cars, there are no signs to say that the trade war is letting up any time soon. China has also announced plans to free up another $100bn in the banking system, perhaps another admission of a slowing economy. The weekend election in Turkey has seen the incumbent president win as expected, with sweeping changes being implemented that will now ensure he holds substantially more powers, and for an unlimited term. Nevertheless, the stability that this promises to bring over the near-term has helped boost the lira, which rose 2% overnight. UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the German Ifo business climate figure represents the biggest data point on a day that is light of any particularly significant releases. As such, there is likely to be a continue focus on trade considerations with the US. South Africa: Commodity prices are under pressure, including oil which has offset Fridays gains which followed the OPEC announcement to increase production by 1m barrels per day (Saudi Arabia and Russia had previously suggested raising output by 1.5m barrels per day). The rand has managed to claw back some strength after trading around oversold territory for the last few weeks. Tencent Holdings is trading 1.5% lower on the Hang Seng suggestive of a similar start today for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is trading 1.4% higher in Australia, suggestive of a firmer start for local diversified resource counters.   Shares look ahead this week: Carnival in America will release second quarter earnings today, whilst Tuesday will see the UK listed Northgate release full year results and IHS Markit and the US Lennar will publish quarterlies. Costa Coffee owned Whitebread have a trading update on Wednesday which is worth looking out for, whilst America will yield General Mills and Bed, Bath and Beyond. Hunting and Tullow Oil have Thursday trading statements, whilst Walgreens Boots Alliance will report on Thursday.  Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) 9am – German IFO index (June): business climate index expected to fall to 101.7 from 102.2. Market to watch: EUR crosses 1.30pm – US Chicago Fed index (May): forecast to fall to 0.1 from 0.3. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3pm – US new home sales (May): expected to rise 0.5% MoM from -1.5%. Market to watch: USD crosses Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Stobart Group has said that it has issued a note convening an EGM next month relating to its boardroom dispute. It has recommended that investors vote against the resolution to change the chairman.  IWG has confirmed that it has received an approach from Terra Ferma.  Petards Group has won a contract renewal for provision of software licences and support services for Network Rail.  Accor upgraded to hold at Berenberg
BinckBank upgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
Rexel upgraded to buy at HSBC
Rolls-Royce upgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux Heidelberger Druck downgraded to reduce at AlphaValue
Suedzucker downgraded to sell at Goldman Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

JamesIG

JamesIG

Dividend Adjustments 25 June - 29 June

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing the 25th of June 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 
NB: Special Divs are highlighted in orange  Special Dividends No special dividends expected this week.  How do dividend adjustments work?  As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is effected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

JamesIG

JamesIG

OPEC oil talks - EMEA brief 22nd June

Oil seeing volatility ahead of a crucial meeting for OPEC on production. 'History of Crude Oil' video below. Emerging markets aren't helped by trade war talks and slip to a 9 month low. Trade war fallout starting to be seen with Daimler's profit warning likely to be linked to the imposed tariffs.  Relatively large macro economic day today. Give a once over to the calendar below and plan your day. Asian Overnight: Asian markets were largely back in the red overnight, as the market fear that has been dictating the state of play globally returned once more. Japanese markets also traded lower, despite a rise in the manufacturing PMI survey overnight, with the May figure also revised higher. Oil is going to be the talk of the town today, with the OPEC meeting reaching its conclusion. The question is whether we see a production rise by above or below 1M bpd. This is a rough the threshold that differentiates a result that is seen as a victory for Iran (below 1M), or Saudi Arabia (above 1M).

UK, US and Europe: The PMI theme is going to stick around throughout the morning today, with a whole host of eurozone PMI figures released from the likes of France, Germany, and the eurozone. The big event of the day is certainly going to be the OPEC meeting in Vienna, where volatility across the energy space looks all but guaranteed. In the US session, look out for the Canadian CPI figures, alongside manufacturing and services PMI readings out of the US. South Africa: The dollar has softened overnight to give some relief to the rand and emerging market currencies. BHP Billiton is trading 0.7% lower in Australia suggesting a weaker open for the local listing and perhaps diversified resource counters. Tencent Holdings is trading 0.2% lower in Asia, suggestive of a flat to softer start for major holding company Naspers.  Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) 8am – 9am: French, German, eurozone mfg & services PMIs (June, flash): these initial readings provide a gauge of activity in key parts of these economies. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

1.30pm – Canada CPI (May): price growth expected to be 2.2% YoY, in line with last month, and 0.2% MoM, from 0.3% in April. Market to watch: CAD crosses

2.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (June, flash): manufacturing PMI to fall to 54 from 56.6, and services to rise to 56.5 from 56.4. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Featured video Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Playtech has received approval from the Italian regulator to buy the rest of the shares of Snaitech not currently owned by the firm.  Allianz Upgraded to Buy at Berenberg
Telenor Upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan Zurich Ins. Downgraded to Hold at Berenberg
Ceconomy Downgraded to Hold at Commerzbank
Equinor Downgraded to Sell at DZ Bank
Heidelberger Druck Downgraded to Reduce at AlphaValue   Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

JamesIG

JamesIG

EU joins trade war - EMEA brief 21st June

Trade war continues with EU initiating retaliatory tariffs from tomorrow. 25% will be levied against products from whiskey to jeans and motorbikes. GBPUSD hits 7 month low on fears May will be ousted as PM over Brexit. FTSE index buoyed by a depreciated Sterling.  Disney ups the bid to eclipse Comcast’s $35 a share cash offer for Fox with a $71bn deal, about $38 a share. Trump crumbles to international pressure and signs an executive order stopping the separation of immigrant children from their families. Goldman Sachs looks to expand bitcoin involvement according to COO in a Bloomberg interview. Asian Overnight: Another mixed session in Asia saw Chinese stocks steady themselves after yesterday’s losses despite continued fears over a trade war with the US. Crude remains at the forefront of the market agenda, with weekly US crude inventories falling by the highest amount since January. Meanwhile, a weaker New Zealand GDP figure sent NZDUSD lower overnight.

UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the BoE rate decision is certainly the main event of the morning session, while the SNB monetary policy announcement will also grab some headlines. Look out for FTSE / Sterling correlation. The weaker the Queens pound, the higher the overseas earnings are for companies when they convert back into pounds. The BoE announcement is likely to cause some GBP volatility so make the appropriate risk management alterations to combat this. US Philly Fed manufacturing index, and unemployment claims round off the day in the US. South Africa: The US Dollar has strengthened to weigh on commodity prices, in particular that of precious metals. The rand has resumed weakness as a result and we expect financial counters to bear the brunt of initial weakness. BHP Billiton is trading 0.5% higher in Australia which combined with a softer rand could help local diversified resources find a bid this morning. Tencent Holdings is down 2.5% on the Hang Seng, suggestive of a soft start for major holding company Naspers.  Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) 12pm – BoE interest rate decision: no change in rates expected, but watch for any changes in the voting pattern from the last vote which was 7/9 in favour of leaving rates unchanged. Market to watch: GBP crosses

1.30pm – US Philadelphia Index (June), initial jobless claims (w/e 16 June): Philly Fed index expected to fall to 28 from 34.4, initial jobless claims expected to rise to 223K from 218K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

9.30pm – Fed publishes bank stress test results: the US central bank will issue the results of these tests, so bank and other financial stocks will be in focus. Market to watch: US bank stocks Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Featured video: What is scalping? Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Dixons Carphone said that pre-tax profit for the full year was down 23.6%, to £382 million, while like-for-like revenue rose 4%. Slower growth in the UK and Ireland was blamed for the weaker performance.  Saga traded in line with forecasts in the four months to 31 May 2018. Saga-branded retail insurance policies were up 1% year-on-year.  Lloyd’s Banking Group announce hundreds of job cuts yesterday citing a change in customer behaviour. Tesla files lawsuit against Martin Tripp, the former employee who allegedly orchestrated a hack and data breach of Tesla operating software. Essity upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley
Nornickel GDRs upgraded to buy at Citi
Peab upgraded to hold at DNB Markets
Rio Tinto upgraded to buy at HSBC Euronext downgraded to equal-weight at Barclays
Hypoport downgraded to neutral at Oddo BHF
Veolia downgraded to hold at Jefferies
Virgin Money cut to neutral at JPMorgan Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

JamesIG

JamesIG

Roundtable discussions - EMEA brief 20th June

Asian market bounced a little on Wednesday morning on continued trade war talks. In the Chinese markets regulators sought to calm the markets. Those with large Chinese export books such as Boeing and machinery manufacturers Caterpillar were hit the hardest with Trump's threat of further tariffs. These may be ones to watch going forward as the trade war unfolds. The ‘big four’ accounting scandal continues with internal report from a Lloyd’s bank employee detailing allegations of misconduct by senior bank staff and KPMG auditors. A drop in US crude inventories and the loss of storage capacity in Libya provided some recovery to oil prices. Bitcoin down around 2am BST after a South Korean exchange was hacked, however we have broadly seen consolidation around these levels for the last 10 daily candles. Think tanks in the UK call on legalisation of cannabis for medical use after high profile case of a young boy who was hospitalised after his cannabis oil, used to aid severe epilepsy, was confiscated. You can see the best marijuana stocks to watch on IG.com Asian Overnight: A largely bullish session overnight saw gains for a number of markets, despite the continued concern over a potential trade war between the US and China. The reasons for this mornings gains are as yet unclear, although there is some suggestion of easing trade war tensions as being the catalyst (we are however not yet convinced of this). This breather in the recent global stock market decline has provided welcome respite, yet issues remain. Oil prices also moved higher, with the OPEC meeting looking increasingly likely to provide volatility, with Iran expected to refuse any production increase, as proposed by Saudi Arabia. 

UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, a roundtable discussion including governors from the RBA, BoE, BoJ, and Fed will be a significant event which will certainly be watched closely for signs of any clues as to future monetary policy changes. Also keep an eye out for the latest existing home sales and crude inventory figures. South Africa: Global markets are finding some short term reprieve as US Futures and Asian markets rebound this morning.  The rand has clawed back some strength after the severe weakening we saw yesterday, which could help a partial rebound in local financial counters this morning. BHP Billiton has added 0.75% in Australia this morning, suggestive of a positive start for local retailers. Tencent Holdings has added 1.3% on the Hang Seng suggestive of a similar gains for locally listed Naspers.  Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) 2.30pm – ECB Central Bank Forum, Portugal: the ECB will host central bankers from around the globe, with speeches from RBA governor Lowe, ECB president Draghi, BoJ governor Kuroda and Fed chair Powell. Markets to watch: AUD/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, US Dollar Index 3pm – US existing home sales (May): forecast to rise 1.5% MoM from a 2.5% drop. Market to watch: USD crosses 3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 15 June): expected to rise by 690,000 barrels from a 4.14 million barrel drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Featured video: BCC predicts worst UK growth since 2009 Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Sports Direct has sold its interest in US retailer Finish Line.  Sirius Minerals has signed an agreement to sell its fertiliser product to African firm Intercontinental Trade DMCC Dubai. The agreement will last for seven years.  Berkeley Group has raised profit guidance for the two years to 30 April 2019, by £75 million to £1.575 billion. Pre-tax profit for its full-year was up 15.1% to £934.9 million, Revenue was £2.7 billion from £2.72 billion a year earlier.  Tesla has seen volatility the first half of the week as Musk accuses employees of hacks and code changes to production line software under false usernames and unauthorised data exports to third parties. Disney and 21st Century Fox pledge increases to sky and sky news funding, with the later being divested to Disney, to help push through the Fox/Sky merger. Footasylum down over 50% after profit warnings and slashed 2019 growth forecast by Analysts. Full year results show profit before tax down to £1.9m from £8.1m last year due to cost on the back of the companies inclusion in the AIM market. Grindrod (SA) Shareholders are advised that total earnings per share for the six months ending 30 June 2018 is
expected to be positive (an increase of more than 100%). The prior year comparative period, being
the six months that ended 30 June 2017, reflected a loss per share of 11.5 cents Sandvik Upgraded to Buy at Goldman
JP Morgan maintain overweight rating on Naspers (SA) with a target price of 450000c SSE Downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC
Ringmetall Downgraded to Hold at Montega
SKF Downgraded to Sell at Goldman Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

JamesIG

JamesIG

Trump Tariff 2.0 - EMEA brief 19th June

Asian stocks slide on further trade war tariffs. Yen, treasuries and gold gain as traditional safe havens. UK incomes for those in employment rise at the highest rate since the financial crisis according to IHS Markit yesterday. CYBG confirmed yesterday it had agreed a £1.7bn tie up with Virgin Money. Oil prices whiplash, but ultimately fall on expectations that OPEC and Russia will gradually increase output after withholding supply since 2017. Payment company Square has been awarded a BitLicence to operate in New York. BTC trades at $6700, and ETH at $515 Asian Overnight: Weakness in overnight markets came as no surprise after Donald Trump declared another $200 billion worth of goods that would be hit by a 10% tariff after China imposed a like for like $50 billion package of US goods to be targeted. This trade war is set to kick in on July 6, and instead of making progress towards a solution, it looks as if relations between the two biggest economies in the world are instead deteriorating. Meanwhile, crude prices rallied ahead of Fridays OPEC meeting, with rumours that a production hike will be smaller than expected.

UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the current themes impacting markets are likely to remain in focus, with few major economic events of note. Appearances from ECB economist Praet, and Fed member Bullard will provide a central bank focus. Meanwhile, the US session sees a focus on construction with the release of building permits and housing starts data. South Africa: The local bourseis expected to open up significantly lower this morning following on from soft US Futures and a rampant decline in China (-3.45%) and Hong Kong (-2.76%). Emerging markets are bearing the brunt of the weakness today from the 'Trump Tariffs', as reflected in their respective currency declines. The rand looks to be fast approaching the R14/$ mark. Tencent Holdings is trading 3.17% lower on the Hang Seng, suggestive of a similar move in major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is trading 1.2% lower in Australia , which combined with weaker base metal prices is suggestive of an initial decline in local diversified miners.  Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Featured video: 'Be wary’ of Carney’s guidance Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Ashtead said that underlying pre-tax profit was 21% higher at £927.3 million for the full year, and revenues were up 21% at £3.42 billion. The dividend was boosted 20% to 33p.  McCarthy & Stone has issued a profit warning, downgrading its forecasts and announcing the departure of the CEO. Legal completions are forecast to be in the 2100-2300 range, compared to 2302 year-on-year.  Debenhams has issued another profit warning, saying that full-year pre-tax profit will now be £35-40 million, versus consensus forecasts of £50.3 million.  Beiersdorf upgraded to neutral at JPMorgan
Ferrexpo upgraded to buy at HSBC
Verbund upgraded to reduce at AlphaValue
JP Morgan maintain overweight rating on Naspers (SA) with a target price of 450000c Edenred downgraded to neutral at MainFirst
Galp downgraded to sector perform at RBC
Hornbach Baumarkt cut to reduce at Commerzbank
Informa downgraded to hold at Peel Hunt Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

JamesIG

JamesIG

Oil in the limelight - EMEA brief 18th June

Asian shares fall as the Trump 'tit-for-tat-tariff' goes ahead. China responds. Ex-Japan Asia down 0.5%, Nikkei down 0.7%. China and Hong Kong markets on holiday. Dollar eased from it's 3 week high, whilst euro remains subdued. The World Cup has kicked off with a record 32 teams taking part. Pared with great weather so far this month, and a strong forecast going forward, pubs have the potential to thrive. OPEC members in Vienna are to meet this week to decide on whether or not to end the oil production freeze. Members are split so a decision either way is likely to increase volatility and present a potential trade opportunity. BoE to set interest rates on Thursday. The banks MPC to meet earlier this week. Asian Overnight: Asian markets traded lower once again overnight, as fears over a trade war between the US and China continue to set the tone. Friday’s confirmation that we will see tariffs imposed of $50 billion worth of Chinese goods prompted the Chinese to set out a similar package in return imposing tariffs on 659 American products such as cars, soybeans and seafood. With both the Chinese and Hong Kong indices closed for a bank holiday, the focus thus turned to Japan, which fell sharply overnight despite a rise in imports and exports. UK, US and Europe: Crude prices will be one of the main markets to watch for the week, with prices tumbling ahead of Friday’s OPEC meeting. With the Chinese also indicating that their tariffs would include US crude, this further enhanced Friday’s selloff. A quiet day on the calendar front throughout Europe and the US sees markets retain focus on trade considerations. Central banks are likely to be the theme though, with appearances from Fed members Duke, Dudley, Bostic and Williams, coming alongside a Bundesbank monthly report and speech from Mario Draghi. South Africa: The local bourse looks set to open up lower this morning as global markets find short term pressure on the back of escalating trade war tensions. Commodity prices are trading lower with gold testing the $1280/oz level,  platinum the $885/oz and brent crude the $73/barrel mark. Base metals copper, zinc and aluminium all trade lower on the day. The rand is slightly firmer although still trading around its worst levels of the year. Conditions look particularly unfavourable for diversified resource counters today, further evidenced by BHP Billiton trading 2.4% lower in Australia.  Stock look ahead: Ashtead and Flybe are the ones to watch tomorrow as they release full year figures, whilst FedEx and Oracle in the US will release quarterly figures. Annual results for Severfield and Berkley will also be released on Wednesday and Micron Technology in the US publishes their quarterlies. Dixon Carphone will follow with annuals on Thursday. Quarterlies are expected from the UK's Carnival and the American Kroger on Thursday as well.  Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Featured video: How to trade a stock market crash Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Virgin Money has agreed an all-share takeover by CYBG, worth around £1.7 billion. CYBG will offer 1.2125 new shares for each Virgin Money share.  DS Smith reported a 17% rise in revenues for the year in constant currency terms, to £5.7 billion, while pre-tax profit was 8% higher at £292 million. The firm said it had seen good momentum so far in its new year.  PPC Ltd (SA) FY18 results showed headline earnings per share to have increased by 114c. Flybe expected to reveal widening losses tomorrow after a tough year and the 'beast from the east' remaining responsible for grounding nearly 1000 flights in the three months leading into March 31st. Other airlines worth watching. AB Foods upgraded to outperform at RBC
Repsol upgraded to outperform at BBVA
Cobham upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley
Enav upgraded to overweight at Barclays
JP Morgan maintain overweight rating on Naspers (SA) with a target price of 450000c Pernod Ricard downgraded to underperform at RBC
Robit downgraded to hold at SEB Equities Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

JamesIG

JamesIG

Dividend Adjustments 18 June - 22 June

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 18th June 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 
NB: Special Divs are highlighted in orange  Special Dividends No special dividends expected this week.  How do dividend adjustments work?  As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is effected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

JamesIG

JamesIG

Your feedback helps to improve IG

Why your feedback matters Here at IG we want to make sure your suggestions help shape our direction and future. We appreciate that the best businesses are built around two-way communication with clients. That's why we provide a number of different ways for clients to quickly and easily talk to us. There is nothing worse than submitting feedback and feeling like your comments and suggestions have been jettisoned into the void of some unread inbox. We want to take this opportunity to lay out how you can easily submit feedback, a few things we do on a daily basis with those communications, and finally a few recent instances of how we're reacted to things our clients have told us.    How to submit feedback to IG Dealing Platform: If you're logged into the platform you'll notice a 'quick feedback' option in the top right hand corner under 'Help'. When you submit your comments our systems will automatically book that against your account and file it in a report which we periodically collate and send to the relevant parties.  Community: One of the easiest ways to submit feedback is via the IG Community. If you head over to the forums page you'll notice a 'Suggestions' section where you can have a search to see if your idea has been submitted before. If it hasn't you can simply start a new topic, pop in your request, and post it publically on Community. The best thing about this being public is that if other clients are also looking for the same thing, they can up vote your suggestion or add a comment. The more clients that want something, the higher the likelihood of it happening. Reports will be collated and passed to the relevant teams.  Direct Message: While the methods described above are generally easier, you may sometimes want to send us a direct message. You can check out our Contact Us page to send a message via a browser contact form.   A few things we do with your feedback Daily feedback reports: When a feedback item comes into our client facing trading services team we first see if any immediate action is required (e.g. if there is an easy resolution or different way to get the same desired result). We then tag the contact with a 'feedback' tag. All items tagged in this way are collated daily and sent to the appropriate business owners. Staff with various specialisms, from those who deal with user experience to our charting developers and data scientists, receive these reports.  Steering committees: Client feedback is also fed directly back to the appropriate areas within the business via meetings set up to decide the rollout roadmap for specific products. We also regularly meet with third party vendors such as Pro Real Time or Signal providers to discuss feedback points and figure out how to resolve any client pain points.  Client communication meetings: Every couple of weeks our communication teams meet with client-facing managers. Both trading services and our dealing desk give an update regarding inbound contacts and the wider market movements, and any client feedback (direct or implied) is discussed.    Examples of recent changes due to client feedback All-sessions chart data: A pain point for clients was the bad spikes on all session pre-market data for big stocks like Apple, Amazon etc. A working group including representatives from the shares desk, our trading services technical support team, and pricing, implemented some solutions to filter the bad data, and correct historical data. Almost all chart updates on the new platform: The charts roadmap is strongly influenced by client feedback. Things like customisable colours, new drawings, extra Fibonacci levels, and features like the dark theme, have all been implemented thanks to feedback from our clients. PRT Wizards: We get a lot of clients telling us that using Pro Real Time for the first time can be quite difficult because of the flexibility, complexity, and customisation options of the charts. Pro Real Time has now implemented walkthrough wizards to guide clients through using PRT for the first time (and for specific features like customising deal templates).    Keep an eye out for product updates Not every suggestion we receive can be implemented as we need to balance the business roadmap with client feedback and requests, but every feedback item will be documented and reviewed by the appropriate team. We also have a brand new 'Products Update' blog on Community where we will be updating all clients on recent rollouts and additions to the IG platform. Some of these changes will be implemented as a direct result of your feedback, so please make sure you keep your comments coming using the above methods.    All the best
IG Community Moderator Team  

JamesIG

JamesIG

The new IG Community forum is live

A trading forum and help and support network for IG clients Over the last few months we have been working on a new layout for your Community, as well as adding greater functionality and new content areas. Today is the 'go live' date and we hope you like what you see. Have a browse, and if you have any feedback or suggestions please add a comment below. Maybe take this opportunity to make your first Community post if you haven't already? This purpose of this forum is for like-minded clients to share trade ideas and discuss market opportunities, ask questions, and provide help and support to others. Learn strategies and trade ideas from experienced traders Give tips to the Community and share your market knowledge Perfect your trading by discussing ideas with others Get the most out of IG and ask the Community anything regarding trading or IG Anyone can browse the trading forum, but you will need a live IG account to post or interact on Community. If you're new to Community and looking for a first step maybe check out the forum, or have a once over of our Community tutorials. We're also curious for any feedback you may have, so add a comment below to have your voice heard. We're always looking to improve our offering based on what traders want - so let us know!
We migrated the old forum (and added some new features) We have migrated over all the posts, likes, 'kudos' and private messages from the previous version of the forum, as well as integrated the Community login with the wider IG eco system so you can enjoy a seamless digital experience between the platform and forum. You should be able to see all your previously posted content under the same Community username as you currently use.  New content areas... Blogs: We have three blogs which we will be updated periodically.  Market News - Daily morning briefings, index dividend adjustments, and one off articles IG Product Updates - A place to let you know about all the things we roll out IG Community Blog - Competitions, 'Ask the Expert' series, and Community updates Calendar: A way for discussion to be relevant and anchored to a specific date / time / macro event Our Picks: A hand picked showcase of the best IG Community has to offer. If individual client forum posts or comments get a significant number of upvotes then they may also be featured More to be rolled out shortly! ...and a few new features. Activity streams: If you're logged in you'll notice you can easily browse things such as 'unread' or 'followed' content. You can save individual search streams so they're available for the next time you log in  Advanced search: An updated and intuitive search functionality Leaderboard: The Leaderboard keeps track of the hottest content and best users each day based on reputation received. You'll increase your chances of getting on here if you post more, receive more likes, and help others Community Profile: Your space in Community. Check yours out by clicking on your username in the top right hand corner
Access IG Community - anytime, anywhere IG Community will be up 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The easiest way to access IG Community is using the top right hand 'Help' drop down in the dealing platform, but you can also access via our mobile apps (look under the help and support section - try it now), or by simply going to community.ig.com This initial rollout is only phase one of 'the big Community plan', and we'd love to hear your feedback. What do you like? What would you change if you had the chance? What new areas would you like to see? Let us know using the comments section below.  Happy chatting
IG Community Moderator Team  

JamesIG

JamesIG

ECB to end QE - EMEA brief 15th June

The ECB announced the end of QE with plans to half asset purchases starting in September. ECB interest rates left unchanged, but hints at "the summer of 2019" for a change. Euro slides. Trump plans to impose $50bn in tariffs on China, met with a pledge of retaliation.  BoJ to keep stimulus unchanged. Brent continued declines as Saudi Arabia and Russia hint that production figures could rise. Unilevel is "extremely unlikely" to remain in the FTSE after it's planned move to Rotterdam. Netflix share price at record high, doubling in value over the last 6 months. UK, US and Europe: Asian markets were down across the board overnight, as the expected US imposition of $50 billion worth of sanctions on Chinese goods stoked fears of an impending trade war. With the possible breakdown of US trade relations with China, alongside a host of G7 allies as seen earlier in the week, it comes as no surprise that we are seeing risk-off sentiment take hold as we move towards the end of the week. The dollar has gained against a broad basket of currencies, while the Euro has weakened considerably following yesterdays dovish ECB press conference. Meanwhile, the BoJ has finished off a week of major central bank announcements, with the widely expected decision to keep their stimulus unchanged.

Looking ahead, a final eurozone CPI reading has the potential to grab headlines in the morning, with the recent sharp rebound clearly having an influence on ECB thinking. The US session sees a focus on tier two releases such as the Empire state manufacturing survey, industrial production, and the Michigan consumer sentiment number. South Africa: The rand has renewed weakness which is expected to weigh on locally listed financial and retail counters, whilst perhaps aiding gains on rand hedge industrial counters. Tencent Holdings is up 0.5% in Asia suggestive of a positive start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton has added 0.5% in Australia suggestive of a slightly positive start for diversified resource counters.  Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Featured video: History of the US Dollar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Tesco Q1 sales rose 1.8% on a like-for-like basis, and were up 2.3% overall. Like-for-like sales rose 14.3% at the newly-acquired Booker.   Rolls-Royce said that the job cuts announced yesterday would cost £500 million in redundancies and system investments. It said that it remained well-placed to exceed free cash flow of £1 billion by 2020, with a mid-term target of free cash flow per share to exceed £1.  Glencore has agreed to settle a dispute with its former partner in the Democratic Republic of Congo, who had been seeking $3 billion in damages for unpaid royalties.   Carrefour upgraded to neutral at Credit Suisse
InterContinental raised to neutral at JPMorgan
SGL upgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
Umicore upgraded to buy at Berenberg Bossard downgraded to sell at Research Partners
OHL downgraded to hold at Bankinter Securities
Campari downgraded to neutral at Citi
IAG downgraded to neutral at MainFirst Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

JamesIG

JamesIG

ECB rates and euro crosses - EMEA brief 14th June

Fed raised rates as expected last night, and sees more hikes likely this year. Trade war tensions between US and China continue. Trump to meet top trade advisors today. Surprisingly weak data out from China regarding retail sales. South African rand hits a 6 month low whilst the Mexican peso continues to fall to a 16 month low. Oil largely unchanged, but larger than expected decline in US inventories, and an unexpected drawdown in gasoline. ECB rate decision later today. Keep an eye on euro crosses from midday. Related video below. UK, US and Europe: A hawkish Fed meeting yesterday has led to a downbeat session overnight, with much of Asia and Australasia trading in the red as a result. The 25 basis point hike was widely expected, yet it was the shift in the dot plot which signalled that we are now looking at a likely four rate rises in 2018, rather than three. Trade war tensions have however weighed on the dollar overnight, despite the hawkish guidance from the Fed. On the macroeconomic data front, Australian jobs data saw a sharp drop in unemployment (5.4% from 5.6%), although the employment change figure fell to 12,000 from 18,300. In China, the fixed asset investment, industrial production, and retail sales figures all disappointed, with a rise in foreign direct investment providing the only bright element of this data deluge.

Looking ahead, European markets will no doubt be looking towards the ECB for guidance, with market expectations shifting towards an increased likeliness that the committee will lay out a pathway to the end of QE. Also watch for UK retail sales in the morning, and US retail sales in the afternoon. South Africa: The weaker US dollar has aided some gains in precious metal prices while the rand is clawing back some of its recent losses against the greenback. The stronger rand is expected help financial counters stem their recent currency related losses. BHP Billiton is up 0.4% in Australia, while Tencent Holdings is trading 1.2% lower in Asia. Naspers, a major holding company of Tencent, is expected to trade weaker in line with its Asian counterpart perhaps extending losses with the stronger rand.    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Featured video: Is the ECB near the end of easy money? Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Rolls Royce has confirmed that it will undertake ‘fundamental restructuring’, cutting 4600 jobs and aiming to save £400 million a year. Further details will come at tomorrow’s capital markets event.   Rathbones has completed the acquisition of Speirs & Jeffrey, Scotland’s largest independent wealth manager, and it will raise £60 million to help finance the deal.  PZ Cussons said that trading in the first half of the year had been constrained by weakness in the UK and Nigeria, and that conditions in Nigeria and Indonesia will mean the second half will remain challenging as well.   Volkswagen have been hit by a 1 billion euro fine over the emissions cheating scandal.  Comcast have topped Disney with a $65bn bid for 21st Century Fox which is an offer of $35 a share in a full cash bid. This represents an increase of 19% over Disney's share bid. Banco Santander upgraded to buy at HSBC
Verbund upgraded to hold at HSBC
Oxford Instruments upgraded to buy at Berenberg
Tele2 upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley
(SA) Investec upgrades Sibanye to buy with a target price of 1600c
(SA) Investec maintain buy recommendation on BHP Billiton with a target price of 26900c Acciona downgraded to neutral at Goldman
Grifols cut to neutral at JPMorgan
Orion downgraded to underperform at Jefferies
Pearson downgraded to underweight at Barclays Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

JamesIG

JamesIG

×