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Yield curves and recessions; starting the second quarter; we've officially passed the original Brexit date - DailyFX Key Themes

The US Yield Curve Flipped Back to Normal, Is the Recession Off? A lot of attention was paid this past week by the financial media to the inversion of the yield curve. To understand the signal, it is important to define the circumstances. The yield curve is a comparison of the yield – in this case, on US Treasuries – of different durations. Normally, the longer the duration, the higher the yield should be owing to the longer tie-up of exposure. When a curve inverts, we have an atypical circ

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Will the US midterm elections result in a political Gridlock? - EMEA Brief 6 Nov

The US Dollar is holding within tight margins as investors are showing discretion ahead of the US Midterm elections that take place today. The Dow closed up 190.87 points at 25,461.7 and the S&P rose 15.2 points closing at 2738.31 led by the financial and energy sectors. The Nasdaq fell 0.38% lower at 7328.85 as Apple and Amazon both fell more than 2% Apple has had its second downgrade since its earning report last week, as Rosenblatt Securities followed Bank of America

DanielaIG

DanielaIG

Will the New Year Blues continue? - EMEA Brief 11 Jan

Yesterday saw further pessimism from corporate giants as the likes of Jaguar Land Rover, Macy's Inc and BlackRock Inc cut profit forecasts. Geely Group halves 9.7% stake in Daimler AG.  Virgin Atlantic and Stobart Group to buy Flybe for £2.2million after Flybe profit warning saw shares prices tumble in October 2018. A fall from which it hasn't recovered.  Trump announced intention to bypass Congress by declaring a national emergency in order to fund wall. This comes as gover

MichaelaIG

MichaelaIG

Will 2018's turbulence continue into the New Year? - EMEA Brief 31 Dec

China's stock market leads 2018 losses with both major indexes, the Shanghai composite and the Shenzhen component each facing annual declines of over 24%. 2018 saw both Australia and Hong Kong's benchmark indexes face annual declines. The ASX 200 falling 6.9% compared to its 2017 closing, whilst the Hang Seng index saw around a 13% decline compared to 2017.  China's manufacturing sector contracted for the first time in two years.. The official Purchasing Manager's Index reporting a

MichaelaIG

MichaelaIG

When it rains, it pours; Amazon shares decline - EMEA Brief 01 Feb

Amazon announced a rise in investments, causing shares to fall over 5 percent , however beats earnings per share expectations and revenue, reporting $6.04 per share in comparison to an estimate of $5.68 per share and a revenue of $72.4billion versus %71.9billion. Caxin Manufacturing PMI falls below expectations to 48.3 in January in comparison to 49.7 in December, its lowest reading since 2016 Stocks in Asia mostly traded higher, with the Shanghai Composite increasing around 1.3 pe

KatherineIG

KatherineIG

What’s making headlines - APAC brief 13 Dec

Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia What’s making headlines: There’s an hour and a half to go in the US session and global equities are up. Let’s assume they finish that way – there is plenty of room for clarification (and rationalization) late-on, if need be. Traders have taken the new green shoots in the trade-war and spun them into a positive narrative. Sure, the old green shots lay trampled below the new ones, but perhaps this time around the positivity will be given a chance to thrive

MaxIG

MaxIG

What will happen to the price of bitcoin if the SEC approve an ETF?

Cryptocurrencies have been going through a period of relative stability, which is almost unheard of for the asset class that gained notoriety for its volatile price movements. The stock market selloff that punished the tech sector in the first half of October coincided with Bitcoin losing 7.5% of its value in a single day. Does this correlation in market movements suggest that as Bitcoin and other cryptos have become more mainstream, and adoption by centralised financial institutions has r

IGAaronC

IGAaronC

Week US jobs data - APAC brief 11 Mar

US NFPs: The final bastion of global economic growth is showing cracks in it walls. Arguably last week’s key-release, US Non-Farm Payrolls disappointed market participants over the weekend, printing well below expectations. It wasn’t a clear-cut, poor print. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8 per cent and wage-growth climbed to 3.4 per cent. The shocker was the headline number: forecast to reveal a jobs-gain of 180,000, the US economy only added 20,000 last month. It’s given rise to concerns t

MaxIG

MaxIG

Week starts soft: APAC brief 13 Nov

Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia Week starts soft: Global equities are down to start the new week. The stories driving the overnight moves are slightly different, but the themes remain the same: the dual risks of higher global interest rates and the prospect of slower global growth has put the bears (at least momentarily) back in control. It can feel repetitive to keep having to reel-off this story. Slower growth, higher rates, slower growth, higher rates – the message keeps echoing thr

MaxIG

MaxIG

Weaker sentiment - APAC brief 19 Nov

Weaker sentiment: Risk aversion continues to plague global markets. Despite some positive developments on Friday regarding the US-China Trade War and US Federal Reserve policy, confidence appears to be lowly, resulting in a general flight to safety. It was telling that the NASDAQ couldn't close higher along with the Dow Jones and S&P500 on Friday: the desire to jump into growth stocks keeps diminishing in this market. It raises the risk that market participants have internalised the idea tha

MaxIG

MaxIG

Walmart/Sainsbury's Merger Blocked - EMEA Brief 25 April

UK Competition and Markets Authority have formally blocked the proposed £7.3 billion takeover of Asda by Sainsbury's causing the merger to collapse.  Corporate earnings reports see European stocks set to open slightly higher. The FTSE 100 rising 9 points to 4780. Whereas Wall Street ended Wednesday's session lower following mixed US corporate results.  Despite beating analysts expectations UBS reported a 27% fall in net profit for it's first quarter when compared to the same period

MichaelaIG

MichaelaIG

Wall Street’s follow-through - APAC brief 8 Jan

Wall Street’s follow-through: Markets have basked in the afterglow of Wall Street's bull-friendly Friday session. They've gotten what they've been screaming for: some strong data and a more-dovish US Federal Reserve. For the first time in a month, perhaps more, trade has been characterised by a relative sense of calm. The VIX is drifting lower and toward the 20-mark. Stocks are up on Wall Street after a solid day in Asia, and global bonds are down. This could all change in an instant, that much

MaxIG

MaxIG

Wall Street trade - APAC brief 27 Feb

Wall Street trade: Rolling into Wall Street’s close and the S&P500 is battling it out with the 2800-mark. There’s two hours to go in trade as this is being written, and the crucial last half-hour of trade is what analysts will be breaking down today. It’s been for all intents and purposes a flat day for US stocks, but another bout of selling into the close will add credence to the idea that the buyers are thin at these levels. Market internals don’t appear too stretched for the S&P, and

MaxIG

MaxIG

Wall Street Slips After Lackluster Bank Earnings - EMEA Brief 16 Apr

Wall Street ended in the negative on Monday as investors digested mixed results from the latest batch of bank earnings. Goldman Sachs reported better than expected earnings, however its shares fell 3.8% due to first quarter numbers showing net profits fell by 21% YoY. Citigroup earnings also beat expectations, although saw a 2% fall in overall revenue.  The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% to 2,905.58 after having three consecutive weeks of gains. The Dow Jones ended the day down 27 points at 26,

JoeIG

JoeIG

Wall Street rout - APAC brief 24 Dec

Wall Street rout: Wall Street capped-off last week with another day of considerable losses, even despite Europe posting an okay day. Come the end of the trading session, the Dow Jones had lost 1.81 per cent, the S&P500 had lost 2.06 per cent and the NASDAQ had lost 2.99 per cent. The fact markets are entering the thin holiday period doesn’t help. One assumes that many-a investor would be rather reluctant to be sitting at Christmas lunch this year holding open-positions in equities given this

MaxIG

MaxIG

Wall street pull back - APAC brief 22 Feb

Wall Street pulls back: On balance, and with Wall Street a few hours from ending its session, it's been a soft 24 hours for equities. The often heard calls of a looming "new-peak" in the market in the shorter term can be heard from some. Momentum has certainly slowed down. The S&P500 has its eyes one 2815 again - that crucial area where that index sold off on three occasions from October to December last year. It could be a slow drive to arrive at a challenge of that level now. The dovish Fe

MaxIG

MaxIG

Wall Street momentum - APAC brief 27 Dec

Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia A big bounce, but a bottom? There’s little shortage of folks calling a bottom in the market this morning, but in truth it’s too early to tell if we are there yet. Sentiment indicators and other market internals suggest that the market could be oversold right now, however a short squeeze here-and-there and a shake-out of a few opportunistic bears doesn’t necessarily mark a change of trend. It’ll be returned to towards the end of this note, but in the inte

MaxIG

MaxIG

Wall Street eyes all-time highs - APAC brief 1 April

The start of something new: A new day, week, month and quarter today; and what a difference a little time can make. 3 months ago, at least for some, global financial markets stood at the brink of ruin. It was December 24 last year that the S&P500 hit its low, but it wasn’t until the start of January that something resembling a turnaround in US stocks transpired. Fast forward to now, and Wall Street is over 12 per cent higher, and though at stages has looked extremely vulnerable to turnaround

MaxIG

MaxIG

Wall Street clocks new highs: APAC brief 24 April

Wall Street clocks new highs: Wall Street achieved a milestone overnight: it registered an all-time closing high. It in some way punctuates one of the more bemusing runs in US equities, following (what felt like) the near-cataclysmic market correction at the end of 2018. The S&P500 closed at 2933 this morning – a mere 10 points from that index’s all-time intraday high. As had been expected, the catalyst for US stocks’ latest burst higher came directly from US reporting season. A series of co

MaxIG

MaxIG

Wake up and smell the coffee; Starbucks beats sales expectations - EMEA Brief 25 Jan

Coffee giant Starbucks announced that same-stores sales grew by 4% in its home US market, with overall revenue also beating expectations. Speaking about the results, CEO Kevin Johnson said that "Our streamline efforts over the past six quarters are paying off by allowing us to bring more focus and discipline to our three strategic priorities". Talks are continuing in the US as the Senate tries to reach an agreement to end the government shutdown, which is now in its 34th day. The White ho

GeorgeIG

GeorgeIG

Volatility lower; risks remain - APAC Brief 12 Nov

Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia Volatility lower; risks remain: Financial markets face far fewer risk events this week, but as has been repeatedly observed in recent months, that does not preclude the possibility of ample volatility. If anything, with so much global economic and political uncertainty at present, the absence of news can make already murky circumstances appear murkier. Traders are still jumpy and rather trigger happy, though implied volatility has been downgraded over the

MaxIG

MaxIG

Volatility - APAC brief 11 Oct

Volatility is up, and risk appetite has been dulled. The VIX traded towards the 22 figure overnight, while currency safe havens such as the Yen were sought amid a somewhat remarkable sell-off across global equities during the European and North American sessions. It’s a matter of markets continuing to adjust to a world of higher interest rates and US Treasury yields – coupled with the expected panic when prices recalibrate to evolving fundamentals. A strong enough argument can be made that we ar

JasmineC

JasmineC

USMCA replaces NAFTA, CAD rises - EMEA Brief 1 Oct

The U.S. and Canada agreed to a trade deal that would preserve a three-way bloc with Mexico, setting the stage for their leaders to sign the accord by the end of November. The new deal will be called the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA. Mexican peso and Canadian dollar gains as uncertainty is lifted and greater stability takes hold of the Americas. The euro was hit by worries about a rise in Italy's fiscal deficit after the Italian government agreed to set a higher than expe

IG-Andi

IG-Andi

USD soft going into FOMC - EMEA brief 5th July

Asian markets fall for the fourth day and major currencies are generally trading in a tight range.  MSCI Asia-Pacific index down 0.5% whilst Japan's Nikkei (the Japan 225) loses 1%. USD slightly softer going into US Initial Jobless Claims and FOMC minutes later today. Gold is holding steady before Fed minutes, whilst copper and zine are stuck near their one year lows on trade woes. Oil prices fall as Trump slams OPEC on twitter and blames the cartel for rising gas pri

JamesIG

JamesIG

US/EU trade talks go well - EMEA brief 26th July

Asian equity markets mixed overnight on better than expected Trump trade talks, but poor US futures - notably Facebook results. Saudi Arabia is suspending the shipment of oil via the Red Sea following an attack from Yemeni Houthi. Gold steady as dollar eases after US and EU trade talks. Big results day for the European market with Shell, Diageo, Nestle, Daimler, and AB InBev set to give trading updates. The corporate focus remains crucial for US markets of late, with

JamesIG

JamesIG

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