With the Fed’s Language, Global Central Banks Signal Softening Policy
Global monetary policy has shifted more noticeably to the dovish extreme of the scale over the past months, but investors were overlooking this questionable support because the markets were under serious duress. Yet, after the three-month tumble leveled out into a meaningful recovery into January, market participants began to look for fundamental reasoning to justify their growing confidence for their exposure. With the F
Around the globe, geopolitics dominates: Political spot fires have captured the attention of market participants. From Washington, to Hanoi, to Kashmir, to Caracas, to London: the ugly machinations of power have dominated the headlines. Only, despite fleeting action, the impact to market activity has seemingly been muted. A facile logic might suggest that it is because of the geopolitical uncertainty in the world that markets have traded so dull overnight. It would be too long a bow to draw, tho
Asian markets move lower on the rather tedious reiteration of trade war fears.
Huge volatility spike sees Turkish Lira dropping 13.5% against the USD.
Oil prices edged up on worries that reimposed U.S. sanctions against Iran would tighten supplies.
UK growth (Q2), trade (June) and production data (June) later today.
Asian overnight: Asian markets followed their US counterparts lower, as trade fears continue to impact market sentiment. Japanese markets where the biggest
The US Government Shutdown is Over, Now What?
Late last week, US President Donald Trump announced from the White House that he would back a stopgap funding bill that would reopen the federal government in full. This would mark the end of a record-breaking (35-day) partial shutdown of the US government. Normally, that would be reason for a swell in market enthusiasm. An onerous pressure on the US economy – a 0.13 percentage point reduction in GDP – suddenly lifted would typically manifest in
Hedging activities in JPY are building up as the Golden week in Japan approaches. Japanese markets will be shut for 10 days from Friday’s close in occasion of the accession of the new emperor to the throne. The situation could prove risky as this was the sort of environment where we saw flash crashes in the JPY against USD and AUD back in January.
The S&P benchmark was up 0.9% on the day, following strong earnings releases on Tuesday. The performance could be moderate for the rest of
Are We Turning the Corner on Global Trade Wars?
There were a few very prominent, positive developments on the trade war front this past week, but is it enough to systemically change the course of the global economic standoff back towards the cooperative growth of the past? Throughout the past week, there was a building din of unconfirmed reports that US President Donald Trump would delay the decision on whether or not to apply tariffs on auto and auto part imports at the May 18th initial d
Is Trump Intentionally Stirring Market Volatility?
The dust is still settling from the most recent string of reciprocal retaliations between the US and China in their ongoing trade wars. As a brief synopsis, the White House frustrated by the lack of progress in negotiations as they were due to break for a month announced August 1st it would slap a 10 percent tariff on the remaining $300 billion in Chinese goods that it was not already taxing. China responded the following Monday by letting
Global markets: Global equities retreated overnight as investors turned their attention to the several risk factors affecting markets at present. The Dow Jones, S&P500 and NASDAQ are all lower for the day, backing-up the modest losses sustained in European shares. The risk aversion is justifiable and reflects the general confusion of investors in a week bereft of powerful good news stories. The focus instead has been on the several distractions bemusing markets, including the unfolding Presi
US stocks register new milestone: The S&P500 registered fresh all-time highs, and touched the 3000-mark for the first time in its history, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell, during his testimony before US Congress overnight, provided implicit assurances that the Fed is open to cutting interest rates at the end of this month. Chair Powell cited weakness in the global economy and trade-conflicts as being the primary reasons for this shift in his view – though he did stress that the fundamental out
It was a choppy day in markets as sentiment vacillated in response to the latest escalation in the US-China trade war. US President Trump made traders wait a little longer than was flagged for his administration's trade announcement, leaving it until well after Wall Street's close to drop the news. Upon the eventual release, initial reactions were unfavourable: though the $US200bn worth of tariffs would go ahead on September 24th at the rate of 10 per cent, this will be upped to 25% come the sta
New headlines to chase: The discourse in markets shifted early this week to where the next upside catalyst would come from. It needn't be substantial; just enough to fuel sentiment and attract buyers back into the market. In the last 24 hours, market participants received what they'd be yearning for: the combination of an in-principle deal in US Congress for border-security funding, along with the announcement that the US-China trade-truce deadline could be extended, has stoked bullish sentiment
Theresa May to visit Brussels today to meet with EU leaders. The visit will see May attend ceremonies marking 100 years since the end of the First World War and she will also have a working lunch with French President Emmanuel Macron which is expected to cover the Brexit deal following news of a draft withdrawal agreement this week.
US Fed holds rates as expected with a further hike anticipated in December which saw USD gains and Treasury yields hit highest level since 2008
IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde commented that U.S. stock valuations have been “extremely high”, possibly implying a correction. On a similar line, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin insisted that the stock sell-off wasn’t “surprising”, while insisting that U.S. fundamentals remain strong. Lagarde also advised to be ready for more market volatility
During IMF U.S.-China trade tension was cited as a major reason for cutting its outlook for global growth.
Intense Brexit t
Chinese stock have rallied with the Shanghai Composite Index gaining more than 4% as officials attempt to support the market as GDP figures last week fell short of the 6.6% growth target by 0.1%
The rest of the APAC region followed suit with all major indices apart from Australia's ASX 200 making gains.
Dominic Raab has stated there may be some flexibility on the Irish border issue. The Brexit Secretary made the comment in an interview which may allow negotiations continue for a s
US equity markets traded firmer overnight whilst Asian markets, for the most part, trade lower this morning
Fed rate hike and FOMC meeting later today seems priced in
US tariffs on Chinese goods reiterated by Washington
Bitcoin falls to a 2 and a half month low on regulatory concerns
PwC facing a £10m fine over their poor BHS audit
Tesla cuts 9% of staff with a refocused goal of profitability
UK, US and Europe: A mixed affair in Asia saw gains in Japan ov
A Habit of Cutting Down Progress Towards Ending Trade Wars
This past week, optimism was dangled in front of the markets and violently snatched away before it became too established. We have been dealing with the escalation of explicit competition in trade policies for the since March, and each hint of progress in turning the major players back from economic stalemate has been consummately dashed. This past week, there were two fronts on which it seemed we were heading for an important brea
China recorded its slowest growth in a quarter for almost a decade. GDP growth year-on-year came in at 6.5% down from estimates of 6.6%, largely down to the continued trade war with the U.S. and high debt levels.
MSCI Asia Pacific Index recorded its worst three week decline since the start of January 2016 with volatility approaching similar levels seen in 2012, mainly due to China's performance and the recent equities' fallout.
US indices further declined on Thursday as market vola
Overnight: The benchmark S&P500 reached new record highs overnight, as the record bull run on Wall Street continued. The S&P briefly touched the 2873-mark in the US session, led higher by consumer discretionary stocks, before selling-off in late trade following the news ex-Trump advisor Paul Manafort has been found guilty of financial crimes. The milestone achieved on Wall Street punctuated a respectable day on global equity markets, which were trading-off greater risk appetite until ear
Trading in Asia was mixed as investors wait for more clarity on the US-China trade deal. The top performer was Shanghai Composite which was up 0.7% while Japan’s Topix was down 0.2%.
Gold prices edged lower as the greenback gained from stronger than expected economic data. Spot contracts hit $1287.34 at 5:00 am GMT, having been almost flat on the day, as can be seen on the IG Web Platform. What is the short- and mid-term fate of the gold bullion, as investors seem to be rushing to equiti
The EU has indicated that Theresa May needs to get backing from parliament on her Brexit deal before they agree to delay the UK's withdrawal from the EU. The Prime Minister is heading to Brussels today for the European Council meeting to try to force an extension in order to avoid a no-deal scenario.
US bank stocks traded lower yesterday after the Fed's announcement that there will be no rate hikes in 2019, Goldman was down 3.4% whilst BoA, J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley
Is Trump Responding to the Dow – and Would He Prioritize Index Over Dollar?
This past week generated another heavy round of criticism from the US President. In both ad hoc press conferences and tweets, Donald Trump scrutinized a number of economic and financial hurdles that he believes is threatening the health of the US economy. The most familiar critique continued to target the Federal Reserve and specifically its Chairman, Jerome Powell. Trump took to the wires to levy blame against the
Written by Kyle Rodda, IG Australia
Global price action: The global equity sell-off continued during Wall Street's final trading session for the week, putting an end to a horrid 5 days for markets. True to form, it was the NASDAQ that led the losses in US trade, clocking a loss of 2.07 per cent, while the S&P500 shed 1.73 per cent itself. Volatility remained elevated and underscored the intense selling, maintaining a 24 reading throughout the session, prompting a flight to safety from i
China’s data inspires relief: The Middle Kingdom was at the centre of financial market focus yesterday. Informally dubbed the “monthly economic data-dump”, market participants were granted the opportunity to test the thesis that the global economy’s Q1 malaise is turning around. And though it was only one set of numbers, the answer received from the Chinese data to this quandary was to the affirmative. China’s GDP figures beat economist’s estimates, printing at 6.4 per cent against the 6.3 per c
May will start her two-week campaign to sell her historic Brexit deal to MPs as EU leaders have agreed on the UK's Brexit deal during the summit held in Brussels over the weekend, outlining it is "the best and only deal possible".
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker explained that anyone who thinks that the EU will offer improved terms if MPs reject the deal will be left "disappointed" - MPs are expected to vote on the 12th of December.
Asian equity markets had a mixe
Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia
2018 reaches a climax this week: It’s effectively the last serious trading week of the year, and the economic calendar reflects that. Indeed, there’ll be a handful of days between Christmas and New Years to keep across, but with little news and thin trade, it’s tough to imagine anything coming out of them. The markets are still ailing, with the bears firmly in control of price action. There’s so many risk-events coming up this week, traders with a bearis
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