It Can Be Difficult to Measure Complex Issues Like Trade Wars
When dealing with a complex fundamental theme – without a binary outcome, numerous inputs and important to different investors for different reasons – it can be difficult to both analyze and trade the subject. Those are certainly criteria that would fit the ongoing trade war. It is proving exceptionally difficult to keep a clear bead on the progress of the economic conflict and the market has started to veer back into its comfort
Trade Wars Between the US and China – Perhaps the US and the World
The world seemed to be on a very different path a week ago. Through the close on Friday, May 3rd, the rhetoric serving as forward guidance for the US-China trade war was clearly being directed to suggest the end to the economic conflict was at hand. That took a dramatic turn two days later when US President Trump contradicted the leaks of an impending compromise and deal by stating clearly that the United States would raise
Not with a bang, but with a whimper? Without all the fire and fury that we saw in December, markets are pricing in once again a slow down in global economic growth. It could be strongly argued this is evidence of how important US Fed support is to equity market strength – but that’s a drum to beaten (over-and-over-again) for another day. Fundamentally, traders are quietly re-pricing for a world where economic growth will be weaker than once thought. Such behaviour has been long evident in Chines
EU agrees to postpone Brexit until 22 May if MPs approve a deal next week, otherwise the UK will leave by 12 April, a much shorter deadline
Levi Strauss shares rocket, with initial public offering above expectations at $17, and closing at $22.5
China to potentially miss out on $5.5trillion growth opportunity in digital trade if they do not build effort on data privacy and intellectual property protection issues
Uber to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange and is predicte
Theresa May faces a crucial cabinet meeting today at 14:00 UK time as she seeks support from senior ministers for her draft Brexit deal between the EU and the UK.
In light of the news of a potential Brexit deal being agreed, the pound rose 0.12% against the dollar on Wednesday morning and 0.16% against the Euro.
The US equity markets generally ended down as Wall Street fails to claw-back earlier losses from the lackluster performance of the energy sector. The S&P slipped 0.2%,
Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia
Friday session: Friday capped off another horror week for Wall Street. It was US equities’ worst week since March. Traders are currently operating within a volatility trap – and there are few indications this will soon end. The VIX is elevated, above 23 at the last reading, but occupied time above the 25-mark at stages during the week. Volatility is an active trader’s friend, and for the most part the opportunities it has thrown have been relished. Liqui
Jackson Hole Symposium Has Too Much to Cover
There are two particularly important, multi-day summits scheduled for this coming week. Given the individual market-moving capacity of US President Donald Trump, the G7 Summit from August 24th through the 26th will be particularly important to watch. He has announced remarkable change in policy at or around such large events before – particularly when provoked by flabbergasted global counterparts. There are five general topics on the agenda whic
A night loaded with information: The pointy end of the week is under-way, and if only relatively speaking, markets are moving on the back of several key stories. Naturally, the centrepiece of this is Wall Street; and there’s been a timely mix of corporate data, economic developments, central bank meetings, and politics for market participants to digest. The intra-day battle of these narratives has caused some modest, but interesting enough, price action in financial markets overnight; with Apple
Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia
What’s making headlines: There’s an hour and a half to go in the US session and global equities are up. Let’s assume they finish that way – there is plenty of room for clarification (and rationalization) late-on, if need be. Traders have taken the new green shoots in the trade-war and spun them into a positive narrative. Sure, the old green shots lay trampled below the new ones, but perhaps this time around the positivity will be given a chance to thrive
Stocks sell-off in Europe and the US: Global equities appear in pull-back mode. Ignoring Asia’s solid-enough day, European and US stocks have tumbled. The Euro Stoxx 50 shed 1.78 per cent overnight, while the FTSE100 dropped 1.63 per cent, and the S&P500 has given-up 1.65 per cent. It looks as though just when one assumed the latest trade-war developments lacked true bite, the conflicts potential consequences have reared their head in price action. Trade talks this week take-on an even great
Reckless Acceleration of the Trade War
With the global (including the US and China) economy already straining under the weight of the ongoing trade wars, the two largest individual economies too steps this past week to leverage the pressure even higher. As expected, China felt it necessary to respond to the upgraded efforts announced by President Trump on a staggering $300 billion more in Chinese goods – the ‘rest’ of the country’s imports that weren’t already facing a tax. It seems the Wh
ASX overbought; but clear-air ahead: The ASX200 ought to add another 22 points this morning, according to SPI futures. There is a lot of enthusiasm about Aussie stocks presently – something surely attractive for the contrarians who like to run counter to prevailing market sentiment. It’s been said so much that it’s become facile: a pull-back must come soon to test the strength of the market’s recovery. Of course, it is a matter of when this eventuates – timing is always the toughest thing to pre
G20 Summit begins: Market attention turns, almost singularly, to this weekend’s G20 Summit, today. There are numerous issues with significant financial market and global economic implications to be discussed at the event – the general concern about a global economic slow-down the overarching one. But of course, at the centre of everything, almost eclipsing the Summit’s primary purpose, is the highly anticipated meeting on Saturday afternoon between US President Donald Trump, and Chinese Presiden
A shift in perceptions: The fundamentals shifted on Friday. It wasn't a complete "180", but enough to change market sentiment in favour of the Bulls. The highly anticipated monthly Non-Farm Payrolls figure, along with US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's interview, delivered the goldilocks outcome market participants were craving. For those holding hope for financial markets and the global economy, the information gathered from each event soothed nerves that a major global economic slowdown
Amazon's net income for its first quarter more than doubled to $3.6bn, or $7.09 a share, from $1.6bn in the same quarter last year, beating analysts' expectations of $4.72 a share. Revenue rose 17%, in line with consensus estimates, although it was the lowest YoY growth rate since the beginning of 2015. Operating expenses increased by 13%, down from 41% growth in the same quarter of 2018. Amazon plans to roll out one-day shipping worldwide for its Prime members this year, which will likely driv
The British economy managed to grow in the month of February as manufacturers are said to have increased stockpiling in preparation for the original Brexit deadline of March 29. GDP grew 0.2% MoM in February, despite predictions of economic stagnation amid fears of a global economic slowdown.
The UK and EU have agreed to extend the Brexit deadline until October 31. The "flextension", which allows the UK to leave before the deadline if a deal is approved in Parliament, means that the UK w
Tiger Woods achieved his fifth Masters victory. The victory is worth around $22,500,000 to his sponsor Nike (according to Aprx Marketing data).
Asian shares crept towards nine-month high after US treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin reported a positive outlook on trade talks. The Hang Seng rose 1.2% and the Nikkei climbed 1.4% to reach it's highest level in 2019.
USD/JPY dips from 112.09 high this morning (following mid week rise last week).
Volkswagen unveiled the ID Roomz
Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia
Risk? No, thanks: Markets have given a resounding “nope” to all varieties of risk overnight. Equities have been slogged on Wall Street, following to a sluggish day in European markets, that saw the FTSE drop 0.2 per cent and the DAX shed 0.85 per cent. Here it looks like this is the convergence punters have been calling: US shares are playing a rapid catch-up with their global counterparts. The losses are piling up. The NASDAQ has been hit the worst in t
Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia
A loaded menu: If this week in financial markets is a buffet of information, then yesterday’s session tasted like the entrée. The themes that were predicted to define this week’s trade all showed-up in one form or another, hinting at bigger things to come. US President Trump added heat to the trade war, then spiced up the Brexit debate; a speech from US Federal Reserve Vice President Richard Clarida had traders questioning how many Fed hike’s markets hav
Fear of an increase in protectionism from the United States causes Asian equity markets to dip.
Profit warnings rise 29% quarter on quarter to 58 FTSE listed companies. Retail sector leads the way, and its expected the earnings shall continue due to uncertainty in the future.
Brexit secretary Raab says that the ‘no deal’ option is still on the table. GBP opened marginally down, but came back and has now gained from the Friday close.
G20 central bank leaders have warned that
The control of the market: The bulls and bears are circling one another, with neither to take control in a meaningful way this week. There is a vacillating in sentiment, maybe as each side recognizes that not enough information has emerged this week to tip favour towards one camp or another. Moments like these can be opportunities whereby markets build to a breaking point. It becomes a matter now of waiting for the necessary evidence to buy-in or sell-out. Headlines are determining intra-day mov
Asia share markets mixed, China up on stimulus hopes
GBPUSD hits a one year low as Brexit fears continue.
Sterling’s slump guided the FTSE on a stellar rally.
USD/TRY poised for continued big volatility swings over US/Turkey meeting.
Oil price steady after sliding 3% yesterday.
Asian overnight: Asian stocks were largely higher, with Japanese indices providing the one outlier amid a wider rally led by rampant upside for Chinese and Hong Kong stocks. One major dra
Sentiment weaker; but ASX to rise: SPI Futures are indicating an 11-point gain at the outset for the ASX200 this morning. It's perhaps a surprising result, given overnight activity. The chorus of pundits calling an economic slowdown grew louder, backed up by weak data and some unfavourable headlines. The Australian Dollar is better reflecting the dynamic: it's fallen through the 0.7100 level to eye support at 0.7040. Perhaps the weaker A-Dollar is behind some of the expected lift in Aussie stock
Risk Trends Trembles, Is it the ‘Crazy’ Fed’s Fault
Market’s suffered a painful correction this past week. From peak-to-trough, the benchmark I like to refer to as a measure of hold-out enthusiasm, the S&P 500, dropped nearly 8 percent. That is still a ways from the technical ‘bear market’ designation which is a 20 percent correction from peak highs, but that scale of loss from a seemingly indefatigable climber rattles confidence. To be clear, the slump in sentiment was not isolated to
UK Competition and Markets Authority have formally blocked the proposed £7.3 billion takeover of Asda by Sainsbury's causing the merger to collapse.
Corporate earnings reports see European stocks set to open slightly higher. The FTSE 100 rising 9 points to 4780. Whereas Wall Street ended Wednesday's session lower following mixed US corporate results.
Despite beating analysts expectations UBS reported a 27% fall in net profit for it's first quarter when compared to the same period
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