Are We Turning the Corner on Global Trade Wars?
There were a few very prominent, positive developments on the trade war front this past week, but is it enough to systemically change the course of the global economic standoff back towards the cooperative growth of the past? Throughout the past week, there was a building din of unconfirmed reports that US President Donald Trump would delay the decision on whether or not to apply tariffs on auto and auto part imports at the May 18th initial d
Overnight action: Wall Street equities closed effectively flat, while bond yields climbed, commodities generally lifted, and currency markets shuffled into place, as markets continue to position for this week’s massive G20 meeting in Osaka. Market activity was relatively high, and sentiment does seem to be balancing on a knife’s edge: US President Trump flippantly suggested his “Plan B” from this weekend’s trade-talks is to slap on China “billions and billions” of more tariffs. Meanwhile, bond m
Is Trump Responding to the Dow – and Would He Prioritize Index Over Dollar?
This past week generated another heavy round of criticism from the US President. In both ad hoc press conferences and tweets, Donald Trump scrutinized a number of economic and financial hurdles that he believes is threatening the health of the US economy. The most familiar critique continued to target the Federal Reserve and specifically its Chairman, Jerome Powell. Trump took to the wires to levy blame against the
Two Important Trade War Votes and A Lurking Threat
We have had a few weeks of relative respite from the 2019’s constant headline generator: trade wars. That hiatus is past, however, as we are expecting key updates on global trade relations over the next few weeks. In an unusual twist though, the developments may be positive ones. Dead ahead on Wednesday January 15th we are expecting two opportunities to improve the collective growth trajectory. The most prominent of these is the planned sig
Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia
America votes: Now we play the waiting game, it seems. The US electorate have set off to the polls to vote in their mid-term elections, and the world now awaits their decision. Financial markets aren’t exempt from the interlude, trading on very thin volumes, as traders opt to stick to the sidelines until a result is revealed. There appears a very general unwillingness to jump-in to markets ahead of the crowd on this event, presumably owing to the incredi
Fed raised rates as expected last night, and sees more hikes likely this year.
Trade war tensions between US and China continue. Trump to meet top trade advisors today.
Surprisingly weak data out from China regarding retail sales.
South African rand hits a 6 month low whilst the Mexican peso continues to fall to a 16 month low.
Oil largely unchanged, but larger than expected decline in US inventories, and an unexpected drawdown in g
A night loaded with information: The pointy end of the week is under-way, and if only relatively speaking, markets are moving on the back of several key stories. Naturally, the centrepiece of this is Wall Street; and there’s been a timely mix of corporate data, economic developments, central bank meetings, and politics for market participants to digest. The intra-day battle of these narratives has caused some modest, but interesting enough, price action in financial markets overnight; with Apple
The Office of the United States Trade Representative has posted a list of goods that the US is considering to impose tariffs on from the EU, which includes aircraft, motorbikes, cheese and wine. The tariffs on some $11bn products from the EU is in response to the subsidies the bloc gives to Boeing's rival Airbus, which has caused "adverse effects to the Unites States".
US equities had a mixed session on Monday coming of the back of a strong growth last week. Both the S&P and Nasdaq ed
China recorded its slowest growth in a quarter for almost a decade. GDP growth year-on-year came in at 6.5% down from estimates of 6.6%, largely down to the continued trade war with the U.S. and high debt levels.
MSCI Asia Pacific Index recorded its worst three week decline since the start of January 2016 with volatility approaching similar levels seen in 2012, mainly due to China's performance and the recent equities' fallout.
US indices further declined on Thursday as market vola
Overnight: The benchmark S&P500 reached new record highs overnight, as the record bull run on Wall Street continued. The S&P briefly touched the 2873-mark in the US session, led higher by consumer discretionary stocks, before selling-off in late trade following the news ex-Trump advisor Paul Manafort has been found guilty of financial crimes. The milestone achieved on Wall Street punctuated a respectable day on global equity markets, which were trading-off greater risk appetite until ear
Chinese stock have rallied with the Shanghai Composite Index gaining more than 4% as officials attempt to support the market as GDP figures last week fell short of the 6.6% growth target by 0.1%
The rest of the APAC region followed suit with all major indices apart from Australia's ASX 200 making gains.
Dominic Raab has stated there may be some flexibility on the Irish border issue. The Brexit Secretary made the comment in an interview which may allow negotiations continue for a s
Trade Wars Between the US and China – Perhaps the US and the World
The world seemed to be on a very different path a week ago. Through the close on Friday, May 3rd, the rhetoric serving as forward guidance for the US-China trade war was clearly being directed to suggest the end to the economic conflict was at hand. That took a dramatic turn two days later when US President Trump contradicted the leaks of an impending compromise and deal by stating clearly that the United States would raise
Soft start to the week: The weak lead from Wall Street combined with US Labor Day holiday kept trading within financial markets soft and subdued overnight. The return of trade war concerns following the disintegration of talks between the US and Canada weighed heavily on markets in the Asian region, with the Nikkei, Hang Seng and the major Chinese indices sustaining considerable losses. It places traders in a starkly different position compared to last week when it was hope that perhaps US Presi
IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde commented that U.S. stock valuations have been “extremely high”, possibly implying a correction. On a similar line, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin insisted that the stock sell-off wasn’t “surprising”, while insisting that U.S. fundamentals remain strong. Lagarde also advised to be ready for more market volatility
During IMF U.S.-China trade tension was cited as a major reason for cutting its outlook for global growth.
Intense Brexit t
May will start her two-week campaign to sell her historic Brexit deal to MPs as EU leaders have agreed on the UK's Brexit deal during the summit held in Brussels over the weekend, outlining it is "the best and only deal possible".
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker explained that anyone who thinks that the EU will offer improved terms if MPs reject the deal will be left "disappointed" - MPs are expected to vote on the 12th of December.
Asian equity markets had a mixe
Earnings solid coming from the US continues to push futures up overnight.
Oil prices held steady, supported by a report of rising U.S. crude inventories as well as the introduction of sanctions against Iran.
Elon Musk tweeted last night regarding taking Tesla private. Stock up as he quoted a $420 price target.
Crypto markets slump following SEC bitcoin ETF delay.
Today there’s a 39.1 point FTSE div (updated from 39.0 on the dividend adjustment post) and a 25.8 Dow div
US jobs report preview: will NFP follow ADP rise?
The September US jobs report released on Friday provides traders with a fresh opportunity to scrutinise the economic recovery after months of improvements that have followed the first quarter (Q1) economic collapse.
Coming at a time when we have seen a resurgence for the dollar, the jobs report will be released at 1.30pm on Friday 2 October.
Tune in to IGTV live announcement and analysis this Friday at 1.25pm UK time on the IG plat
Global political economy in focus: International diplomacy, politics and global trade are at centre of attention to begin the new week. Indeed, that’s in part due to the corporate and economic calendar appearing relatively lighter, being the final week of the month; as well as the fact the UK and US are off on public holidays on Monday. But even in the absence of other hard-hitting, high impact news, the confluence of politics-related headlines merits attention in their own right. And it spans t
Theresa May has scheduled another vote on her Brexit deal following the latest round of voting on the house of commons as MP’s voted last night to extend article 50. It still remains to be seen whether this extension will be agreed to by the EU.
The US senate has voted to prevent funding for Trump’s border wall, the main sticking point of the government shutdown at the beginning of the year, potentially setting up a veto from the president.
The FTSE was up 0.5% yesterday but most o
Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia
Sentiment cooling: Sentiment is cooling and the drivers that have sustained global equity's recovery are subsiding. It's no cause for alarm (yet) by any means. The markets are demonstrating a level of short-term exhaustion after its chaotic December. The same risks remain; traders have just shifted their views. The concerns regarding a slow-down in global growth have abated somewhat, though the issue is still simmering. The outlook for how the Fed will a
MSCI All-Country Index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, hit the lowest level since August '16 overnight
Crude hovers above $74 a barrel on concerns Hurricane Michael in the US may affect supply
USD down as it does not keep pace with SGD. Trump comments that FED is moving rates too quickly
Iron Ore Benchmark breaks back into $70s amid speculation over further stimulus from Chinese policymakers
Trump accepted the resignation of Nikki Haley as US ambassador to UN. C
ECB Didn’t Live Up to Lofty Speculation, Will the Fed?
There is a span of high-level rate decisions this coming week, but only one of these updates carries serious potential to not only move its domestic assets but further potential to generate reaction from the entire financial system: the FOMC. This past week, the European Central Bank offered us a look into how far the dovish reach of the largest central banks is currently stretching. Against heavy speculation that the group was going t
Theresa May faces a crucial cabinet meeting today at 14:00 UK time as she seeks support from senior ministers for her draft Brexit deal between the EU and the UK.
In light of the news of a potential Brexit deal being agreed, the pound rose 0.12% against the dollar on Wednesday morning and 0.16% against the Euro.
The US equity markets generally ended down as Wall Street fails to claw-back earlier losses from the lackluster performance of the energy sector. The S&P slipped 0.2%,
Geo-political troubles in Turkey push the lira lower, whilst selling in EM currencies spreads to South African rand and Argentine peso.
Asian stocks fall further.
Euro slips as the usual safe haven yen, the Swiss franc, and the dollar bid up.
Cryptocurrencies mixed in the aftermath of the ETF rejection by the SEC.
Asian overnight: Asian markets exhibited a clear risk-off mood, with the fallout from the recent Turkish and Russian led selloff continuing to impact on ma
Sentiment and Wall Street: Risk appetite appears to be slowly returning to the bellies of investors, with global equity markets experiencing a synchronized push higher to start the week. Wall Street has led the charge of course, overnight adding to the all-time highs achieved at the end of last week. The S&P500 posted a remarkable gain of 0.72 per cent as that index entered rarefied air, while the Dow Jones added 1 per cent to crack the 26,000-mark once more. Trade wars and emerging market t
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