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Fed rate cut; another year of trade war; a currency war - DailyFX Key Themes

ECB Didn’t Live Up to Lofty Speculation, Will the Fed?  There is a span of high-level rate decisions this coming week, but only one of these updates carries serious potential to not only move its domestic assets but further potential to generate reaction from the entire financial system: the FOMC. This past week, the European Central Bank offered us a look into how far the dovish reach of the largest central banks is currently stretching. Against heavy speculation that the group was going t

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

A bearish day - APAC brief 4 Jan

A bearish day: It was a hectic day on the dealing floor, yesterday. Several surprises smacked markets during early Asian trade, and the subsequent 24-hours has since belonged to the bears. The “slower global growth” narrative is gaining momentum, driving traders from riskier assets into safe-havens, as fear snowballs. The VIX is well off its highs from last week, but it did lift overnight, nevertheless, with price action indicating the markets are bracing for further pain. Overall, it was mostly

MaxIG

MaxIG

Panic stations - APAC brief 7 Dec

Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia Panic stations, still: The behaviour in financial markets is resembling cats trapped in a burning room: the air is unclear, it’s unbearably hot, and people are scrambling to find an exit – or at least, somewhere appropriate to hide. The chaos is one thing, but the true issue – as is always the case, when these situations become particularly fraught – is no one can really describe why this is going on exactly. Now, we all know the stories: the Fed has equ

MaxIG

MaxIG

Global stocks - APAC brief 14 Jan

Global stocks: Global equities will be forced to prove their mettle this week. Price action suggests that for many equity indices, the market is ambling at a cross-road. The macro-economic challenges moving markets in general haven't been resolved. That remained true during last week's trade, which saw global stocks move higher, in general. The difference this week is there are more numerous and higher impact risk-events that could make or break the stock market's recovery. There will be no shor

MaxIG

MaxIG

The bulls are coming back: APAC brief 21 Jan

The bulls are coming back: Traders received the greenlight to jump into risk assets on Friday. It culminated in a substantial jump across global equities and a certain “risk-on” attitude to trading. The impetus was arguably more technical than fundamental. The boost in sentiment in being attributed mostly the leaked news that Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin was planning to lift US tariffs on China. Whatever the motive, nefarious or simply untrue, that story was quickly denied by the White Hou

MaxIG

MaxIG

A mixed day for global stocks: APAC brief 26 Apr

A mixed day for global stocks: It’s been a mixed 24 hours for global markets. A series of conflicting messages are being delivered to traders, after the release of some major corporate reports in the past 24-48 hours. Market participants are truly in the meatiest part of earnings season now. The trader’s eye has been fixed on earnings from US tech and industrial giants yesterday and overnight; with the former, thanks to Facebook and Microsoft, beating expectations overall, but with the latter, c

MaxIG

MaxIG

Price-action looks ominous for the S&P500: APAC brief - 20 May

A choppy week ends generally flat for Wall Street: Global stocks ended the week on softer footing. But if one narrows their attention to just the S&P500 as the bellwether, the past 5-days culminated in only a 0.76 per cent fall. Trade continues to dominate sentiment on a macro-scale. The US-China trade-war has deteriorated considerably, with positivity in the market currently being sustained by some vague hope that US President Trump and Chinese President Xi will meet on the sidelines of Jun

MaxIG

MaxIG

The future of Europe in question: APAC brief 27 May

Global political economy in focus: International diplomacy, politics and global trade are at centre of attention to begin the new week. Indeed, that’s in part due to the corporate and economic calendar appearing relatively lighter, being the final week of the month; as well as the fact the UK and US are off on public holidays on Monday. But even in the absence of other hard-hitting, high impact news, the confluence of politics-related headlines merits attention in their own right. And it spans t

MaxIG

MaxIG

Trader's View - APAC brief 16 Aug

Sentiment: Global risk appetite diminished once again overnight, sparking sell-offs across equity markets. The concerns about the fragile state of the Turkish financial system and what that might mean for markets was behind the fall, as traders sought out safe havens to park their money. The US Dollar held its advance consequently, but it was the JPY that saw the most activity, with the USD/JPY falling as low as 110.43. Following Tuesday’s relief rally, it would appear investors aren’t quite pre

JasmineC

JasmineC

Australia's slowdown - APAC brief 7 March

Australian data draws global interest: Australia’s remarkably weak growth figures captured attention, both locally and abroad. The numbers conveyed in yesterday’s GDP were truly disappointing. Growth in the final quarter of 2018 was a paltry 0.2 per cent, and after another set of revisions to previous data, the annualized growth rate fell to 2.3 per cent. Each figure was quite an undershoot of expectations: for one, economists were expecting the quarterly number to come-in-at 0.3 per cent in sea

MaxIG

MaxIG

Fed rescue expectations; trade wars; Euro stability - DailyFX Key Themes

It’s Okay, This One is On the Fed  There has been a notable shift in the market’s mood in just the past week. A sense of dull complacency that traders who were active during the first wave of the large scale, central bank stimulus infusions would recognize has bolstered key assets. After the benchmark S&P 500 and Dow topped at the beginning of May, a steady slide in the indices encouraged the same sinking feeling in conviction that was dependent on complacency. Evidence that we are the

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Are we on the verge of a No-Deal Brexit? - EMEA Brief 21 Mar

The EU has indicated that Theresa May needs to get backing from parliament on her Brexit deal before they agree to delay the UK's withdrawal from the EU. The Prime Minister is heading to Brussels today for the European Council meeting to try to force an extension in order to avoid a no-deal scenario. US bank stocks traded lower yesterday after the Fed's announcement that there will be no rate hikes in 2019, Goldman was down 3.4% whilst BoA, J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley

GeorgeIG

GeorgeIG

Wall Street clocks new highs: APAC brief 24 April

Wall Street clocks new highs: Wall Street achieved a milestone overnight: it registered an all-time closing high. It in some way punctuates one of the more bemusing runs in US equities, following (what felt like) the near-cataclysmic market correction at the end of 2018. The S&P500 closed at 2933 this morning – a mere 10 points from that index’s all-time intraday high. As had been expected, the catalyst for US stocks’ latest burst higher came directly from US reporting season. A series of co

MaxIG

MaxIG

American stocks fall - APAC brief 5 March

American stocks fall: Wall Street looks poised to register its worst daily performance since the start of the year. The technical action was sweet: another early challenge of 2815 – the price ran slightly above that – before the bears swooned, and traders “pulled the trigger”. It’s been a day of selling since, with the S&P500 down 0.6 - 0.8 per cent, at time of writing. It’s nothing to be too concerned about, of course. This is nothing like the behaviour witness at the end of last year. It’s

MaxIG

MaxIG

Trumps G20 summit - APAC brief 3 Dec

Trump’s G20 Summit: Love him or loathe him, Donald Trump seems to be able to get things done. Given he is the most powerful man in the word – at the very least, in a political sense – perhaps this isn’t such a difficult task. When you have the world’s largest economy, coupled with the world’s most potent military at your disposal, one would have all the leverage needed to get their way. But nevertheless, arguably not since Ronald Reagan has global politics experienced such a rapid ideological sh

MaxIG

MaxIG

Bullish week continues - APAC brief 10 Jan

Written By Kyle Rodda - IG Australia The bullish week continues: The pointy end of the week has arrived, and so far, the news flow is lining up well for the bulls. The big release, perhaps for the whole week, was this morning’s FOMC Minutes. Naturally, the information is old, relevant mostly to the December 19 period in which the central bank met. But given the market turmoil experienced since then, along with January’s nascent recovery, this set of Fed minutes has taken on slightly greater

MaxIG

MaxIG

Wall Street Slips After Lackluster Bank Earnings - EMEA Brief 16 Apr

Wall Street ended in the negative on Monday as investors digested mixed results from the latest batch of bank earnings. Goldman Sachs reported better than expected earnings, however its shares fell 3.8% due to first quarter numbers showing net profits fell by 21% YoY. Citigroup earnings also beat expectations, although saw a 2% fall in overall revenue.  The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% to 2,905.58 after having three consecutive weeks of gains. The Dow Jones ended the day down 27 points at 26,

JoeIG

JoeIG

Stocks higher, yields lower, growth concerns persist: APAC brief - 25 Jul

The S&P500 rallied to another record high, as Wall Street shrugged off poor earnings from industrial mega-companies Boeing and Caterpillar, and instead focused on solid-enough results from US-tech giants. The rally was supported by a new-leg lower in global bond yields, after European manufacturing PMI data greatly disappointed expectations, and reaffirmed the continued slowdown in the Eurozone economy. That gave the DAX a lift. The Euro slipped, the Dollar edged higher, and gold climbed by

KirbyIG

KirbyIG

Calmer trade, vigilance remains - APAC brief 9 Jan

Calmer trade, vigilance remains: The sense of cautious optimism in markets remains. Extreme swings in sentiment have been absent. Calm prevails, albeit within a mindset of greater vigilance. There hasn’t been a face ripping rally, nor a vertigo inducing fall, in global equities this week. The trading activity does feel distinct from that which was experienced in December. Fear and subsequent volatility is unwinding. The VIX continues to edge lower, though at a slower pace now. Several of the pan

MaxIG

MaxIG

The Brexit-vote fall-out - APAC brief 16 Jan

ASX’s looming recovery: The ASX200 has clawed itself to a level on the cusp of validating the notion that the market has bottomed. It might feel that we ought to already be at that stage, given we sit 7-and-a-half per cent of the markets lows. But turnarounds take time to be confirmed, and now having broken psychological-resistance at 5800, Australian equities are inches away from that point. There are counterarguments to be made, to be fair: the recent rally has come on the back of lower volume

MaxIG

MaxIG

APAC brief 14 Mar

Traders see “goldilocks” conditions in US: Both European and US shares rallied overnight. For the latter, the term “goldilocks” has been bandied around. That is: growth in the US, though not as strong as it has been in the recent past, is still solid, while inflation risk is presently low, meaning the US Fed will likely remain in a neutral position. A reminder of this dynamic came in the second of two major inflation releases out of the US this week. PPI data showed a weaker than expected print,

MaxIG

MaxIG

US elections, a round of rate decisions, global disputes - DFX Key Themes

Remove the Political Bias, Focus on the Volatility  There has been plenty of political risk keeping the markets at a steady simmer these past months. Some situations like Italy’s budget stand-off with the European Union and the Brexit negotiations are more overt concerns. However, the general rise of populism and the erosion of cross border diplomacy (trade wars, sanctions, failed trade deals, etc) represents a more systemic risk. Yet, despite the ubiquity of this fundamental influence, the

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

US traders return - APAC brief 27 Nov

Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia US traders return: It’s nice to be back to some normal programming. The big-wigs on Wall Street have returned to their desks and volumes across the market are looking far healthier. After last week’s sell-off and volatility, and well before the meaty part of trade this week, traders appear to have had their appetite for risk whetted. Only slightly, of course: there is an acute awareness that the next seven days will hurl up some major events and some sig

MaxIG

MaxIG

Mixed trade - APAC brief 18 Jan

Mixed trade across the globe: Global equity indices have traded mixed in the last 24 hours. Asian trade was soft, European trade was poor, while US indices look as though they will deliver another day in the green. This may not be such a bad thing: perhaps the differing performance across regional indices is a sign of a more discerning market place. Panic about the global economic landscape has subsided for now, allowing traders to take a more nuanced view of the asset class. There is a degree o

MaxIG

MaxIG

Oil Prices Surge as Trump Cuts Iran's Oil Exports - EMEA Brief 23 Apr

Oil prices have surged as Trump aims to cut Iran's oil exports after the White House announced that waivers from countries buying oil from Iran would end in May, a decision made to slash revenue for the Iranian government. Brent crude futures are trading at $74.29 a barrel, up 0.3%, whilst WTI crude reached its highest level since October last year currently trading at $65.95 per barrel. Shares in the US were muted on Monday as the market braces for a busy week of corporate earnings, more

GeorgeIG

GeorgeIG

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