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USMCA replaces NAFTA, CAD rises - EMEA Brief 1 Oct

The U.S. and Canada agreed to a trade deal that would preserve a three-way bloc with Mexico, setting the stage for their leaders to sign the accord by the end of November. The new deal will be called the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA. Mexican peso and Canadian dollar gains as uncertainty is lifted and greater stability takes hold of the Americas. The euro was hit by worries about a rise in Italy's fiscal deficit after the Italian government agreed to set a higher than expe

IG-Andi

IG-Andi

Volatility - APAC brief 11 Oct

Volatility is up, and risk appetite has been dulled. The VIX traded towards the 22 figure overnight, while currency safe havens such as the Yen were sought amid a somewhat remarkable sell-off across global equities during the European and North American sessions. It’s a matter of markets continuing to adjust to a world of higher interest rates and US Treasury yields – coupled with the expected panic when prices recalibrate to evolving fundamentals. A strong enough argument can be made that we ar

JasmineC

JasmineC

Hurricane Michael hits the US - EMEA Brief 10 Oct

MSCI All-Country Index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, hit the lowest level since August '16 overnight Crude hovers above $74 a barrel on concerns Hurricane Michael in the US may affect supply USD down as it does not keep pace with SGD. Trump comments that FED is moving rates too quickly Iron Ore Benchmark breaks back into $70s amid speculation over further stimulus from Chinese policymakers Trump accepted the resignation of Nikki Haley as US ambassador to UN. C

IG-Andi

IG-Andi

Growth v. Risk - APAC brief 10 Oct

The growth-versus-risk paradigm shifted further in favour of the latter in the last 24 hours, as a multitude of stories compounded the bearish sentiment mounting in global markets. Though Chinese markets were more stable yesterday, an IMF report downgrading global growth forecasts for the first time since 2016 reinforced the possible growth-sapping impacts of the unfolding US-China trade war. Risks in Europe piqued again, following renewed inflammation of tensions between the Italian government

JasmineC

JasmineC

Asian Markets Decline - EMEA Brief 09 Oct

Asia stocks at 17-month low as China lets yuan slip. China’s central bank fixed its yuan at 6.9019 per dollar on Tuesday. Dow: After 3-day downtrend and a drop of 200 points the Dow rises for the first time. Sovereign debt markets were calmer overnight whilst the 10 yr US Treasury maintained its 7 and a half year high. Oil prices are steady but up 0.6% after a late boost on Monday. Supply side shortages from Iranian sanctions claims the move. Google bug caused Shares

MichaelaIG

MichaelaIG

Blue Monday - APAC brief 09 Oct

Markets welcomed back the Chinese from holiday and all the bad news came together at once. That’s not to say the world’s problems, at least as it applies to global markets, can be rooted in China. Frankly, it was a hapless start for the week, by any measure. The build-up of trader fears simply over flowed during yesterday’s Asian session, as China’s markets attempted to digest a whole week of news all at once. Most of these issues sit beyond Chinese borders, with the fundamental issue remaining

JasmineC

JasmineC

PBoC reduces capital reserves- EMEA Brief 08 Oct

Chinese stocks decline and the renminbi devalued overnight, despite the PBoC reducing requirements for capital reserves. China's central bank to cut down Reserve Requirement Ratio, releasing 1.2tn Yuan in liquidity, and putting 750bn Yuan ($109bn or £83bn) in cash into the financial system. CSI300 down 3.7%. The Australian ASX also saw sell offs moving the mining and finance centric index down 1.2%. US employment figures out on Friday caused a flurry of Treasury sell offs, however

KatherineIG

KatherineIG

Trade war measures, Dollar alternatives, risk trends and yields - DFX Key Themes

It Can Be Difficult to Measure Complex Issues Like Trade Wars When dealing with a complex fundamental theme – without a binary outcome, numerous inputs and important to different investors for different reasons – it can be difficult to both analyze and trade the subject. Those are certainly criteria that would fit the ongoing trade war. It is proving exceptionally difficult to keep a clear bead on the progress of the economic conflict and the market has started to veer back into its comfort

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

The new week - APAC brief 08 Oct

It’s likely global markets will sway to begin the week, in a bid to find some semblance of equanimity following a raucous week. The international bond rout will be the essential force underpinning price action, with other markets and asset classes to take cues from there. Anxieties regarding trade wars and global growth will probably become more present too, as Chinese traders return from holiday, adding a layer of uncertainty on-top of increasingly volatile fundamentals. The shaky sentiment wil

JasmineC

JasmineC

Dividend Adjustment 08 Oct - 12 Oct

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 8 Oct 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a  cash neutral ad

JamesIG

JamesIG

NFP day as US Treasuries reach 7 year high - EMEA brief 05 Oct

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.3 percent, while Japan's Nikkei dropped 0.5. Global bond sell-off triggers the biggest decline in US equities in nearly four months. As 10-year treasury yields surge to the highest level since 2011, fears that current rates could restrain growth has hit stocks across the US, Europe and Asia. FTSE 100 posting its biggest drop since August yesterday. The Dow Jones drops more than 250 points as treasury yield rat

JoeIG

JoeIG

Smooth Sailing for Brexit? - EMEA Brief 04 Oct

Theresa May declares to end austerity in the much anticipated Conservative party conference yesterday. Bloomberg has also reported this morning that the prime minister plans to rush her Brexit deal through parliament in a bid to stop the opposition voting down the treaty. The DOW hits record highs of 26,951.81 but stocks close with minimal change on the day as rising interest rates have made investors wary. The tension between the U.S. and China continues as China plans to sell $3b

GeorgeIG

GeorgeIG

Treasury sell-off - APAC brief 04 Oct

Economic data flow has been relatively light overnight, but activity on financial markets is especially rife. It’s begun with the bond market – not in Europe this time, but in the booming United States. There doesn’t appear to be a discernible flashpoint that’s sparked this, but nevertheless and for whatever reason, bond traders have hit the sell button on US Treasuries. The phenomenon can be witnessed across the curve, with US 2 Year Treasury yields climbing to levels not seen since 2008 at 2.8

JasmineC

JasmineC

Aston Martin IPO at £19 - EMEA Brief 03 Oct

Aston Martin looks set to miss out on a spot in the FTSE 100 after the luxury carmaker cut the maximum valuation it is seeking in its initial public offering today, bloomberg reporting IPO price at £19. Telecoms and industrials pushed the Japanese Topix, so watch their partners on the European open, whilst miners faired well in Australia. The miner heavy JSE is likely to follow suit this morning. The Dow Jones hit a record closing high, but a drop in Facebook shares weighed on both

DanielaIG

DanielaIG

Macro-drivers - APAC brief 01 Oct

Macro-drivers: Global markets endured a night of mixed trading, sandwiched between several risk factors, and the waning optimism of the USMCA. US indices were generally lower, although the large-cap Dow Jones managed to register new all-time highs. European markets were held back by grief surrounding Italian fiscal sustainability, coupled with lingering concerns about the outcome of Brexit. The general sense of risk aversion led to an appreciating USD and climb in US Treasuries, pushing yields o

JasmineC

JasmineC

Relief-rallies - APAC brief 02 Oct

Deal done: Hopes were whetted during overnight trade from the news that the US, Mexico and Canada had agreed to a revised “NAFTA” agreement. To be (re)named USMCA – the US-Mexico-Canada-Agreement, a clear declaration of the Trumpian neo-Nationalist, “America First” agenda – the trade agreement reconfigures the North American trade consensus, with a skew towards US economic interests. It was apparently the Canadian’s who finally caved in to political and economic pressure on the trade pact, backi

JasmineC

JasmineC

Markets in 4Q, two-speed trade war, US dollar drivers - DailyFX Key Themes

Markets Heading into October and the Fourth Quarter With this past Friday, we closed out week, month and quarter. The shortest measure was a period of consolidation for most assets – from the top performing US equity indices to the EURUSD’s make over break technical move to trade back into range. More impressive for its deviation from character (statistical norm) was the performance for the month of September. Historically, this period is one of significant upheaval for the capital markets

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

ASX technicals - APAC brief 01 Oct

ASX: SPI futures are indicating a 23-point drop at the open for the ASX200 this morning, effectively wiping Friday's solid gains. It comes as no surprise, really, with the lion's share of activity centring around the embattled financial sector. Bank stocks underpinned the rally on the ASX on Friday, led by CBA, in signs that the market believed the sector's recent trend lower was overdone. It may be a case of jumping the gun for traders on that one, as sentiment appears sour once more following

JasmineC

JasmineC

Fed raise rates, USD steady - EMEA brief 27 Sep

Yesterday the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the 3rd time this year. Asian stocks post negative sessions following the Fed announcement being led by the technology and energy sectors. Major currency pairs hold steady whilst the USD basket, despite initial volatility, traded largely flat. Minor gains have been made this morning putting the dollar about a quarter of a percent up. Oil continues to climb as investors continue to be cautiously optimistic that the Ir

JamesIG

JamesIG

Trump and Rouhani exchange words - EMEA brief 26 Sep

Asian stocks are broadly higher ahead of the Fed rate decision later today, whilst the NZ dollar is buoyed by higher business confidence.  Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani came to a head at the UN General Assembly on Tuesday with the US President vowing more sanctions against Tehran, whilst President Rouhani suggested that Trump suffers from a "weakness of intellect." Trump is really trying to bring the price of oil into play before the midterms as high oil prices could hit the

JamesIG

JamesIG

Expected Index Dividend Adjustments 25 Sep - 01 Oct

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 25 Sep 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral ad

JasmineC

JasmineC

From Trade War to Fed - APAC brief 26 Sep

The overarching narrative in global markets is transforming from one preoccupied with the trade war, to one focused on Thursday morning’s (AEST) meeting of the US Federal Reserve. As far as developments in the trade war go, in a week bereft other major stories, traders are demonstrating tentative signs of ease on the subject. Markets are strapping themselves in for the long haul, and a begrudging acceptance that this thing will take time to play out is the prevailing mentality. With that in mind

JasmineC

JasmineC

Trade War - APAC brief 25 Sep

Trade War: Markets were made to curb their enthusiasm overnight. Trade war realities bit again and the relief rally that had defined last week’s trade dissipated. It’s not a terrible cause for alarm yet, but it highlights how difficult to predict the impact on global trade disruption happens to be. It’s a debate that challenges orthodoxy, especially given that markets have done all they can to shrug off the potential consequences new-protectionism will have on global growth. Inefficiencies aboun

JasmineC

JasmineC

Dividend Adjustments 17 Sep - 21 Sep

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 17 Sep 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a  cash neutral a

JamesIG

JamesIG

Instagram founders quit Facebook - EMEA brief 25 Sep

Asian equities diverge, as Chinese shares fall and Japanese shares climb. The Euro jumped on Monday after Mario Draghi of the ECB signalled that policymakers are on track to reduce stimulus measures. He stated that the bank was confident it could maintain inflation targets over the next few years. In the EM space, India's Nifty Fifty stock market is seeing a sell off after reports that a major lender is struggling to service $12.6bn of debt. The index is down 7% since highs seen in

JamesIG

JamesIG

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