It’s Okay, This One is On the Fed
There has been a notable shift in the market’s mood in just the past week. A sense of dull complacency that traders who were active during the first wave of the large scale, central bank stimulus infusions would recognize has bolstered key assets. After the benchmark S&P 500 and Dow topped at the beginning of May, a steady slide in the indices encouraged the same sinking feeling in conviction that was dependent on complacency. Evidence that we are the
EU agrees to postpone Brexit until 22 May if MPs approve a deal next week, otherwise the UK will leave by 12 April, a much shorter deadline
Levi Strauss shares rocket, with initial public offering above expectations at $17, and closing at $22.5
China to potentially miss out on $5.5trillion growth opportunity in digital trade if they do not build effort on data privacy and intellectual property protection issues
Uber to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange and is predicte
There is Way Too Much for the G20 to Cover
Typically, the G-20 summits that brings together leaders for some of the world’s largest developed economies cover matters that are important but not especially urgent. For the meeting in Osaka, Japan this coming Thursday and Friday (June 28-29), the members will officially and unofficially have to cover topics of exceeding importance. That would seem unusual considering we are still in the longest bull market on record and the closest state to ge
US mid-term elections have resulted in a gridlock in Washington, Trump's Republican Party hold the senate having had key victories in Texas, Indiana and North Dakota.
The Democrats have gained control of the House of Representatives which has set up a divided Congress until the next presidential election in 2020.
The dollar has dipped as the dust settles on the results of the mid-terms, the Euro and Yen both rose 0.2% against the dollar. The dollar index, which measures the value o
Wall Street’s follow-through: Markets have basked in the afterglow of Wall Street's bull-friendly Friday session. They've gotten what they've been screaming for: some strong data and a more-dovish US Federal Reserve. For the first time in a month, perhaps more, trade has been characterised by a relative sense of calm. The VIX is drifting lower and toward the 20-mark. Stocks are up on Wall Street after a solid day in Asia, and global bonds are down. This could all change in an instant, that much
Gold prices edged higher after falling on Wednesday. Globally declining treasury yields could increase demand for the yellow-metal if a stock rout were to take place. Spot contracts hit $1311.54 at 6:00am GMT on the IG Web Trading Platform.
Palladium slumped 6% on Wednesday on concerns of slowing demand from the automotive and electronic appliances sectors. Slowing global growth could drown the metal, which hit a record $1620.52 last week.
Oil slumped on Wednesday on reports that
Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia
A bullish Monday: That big uplift we were all expecting after the weekend’s events at the G20 has transpired. The trade-war truce, as fleeting as it may prove to be, has supported a substantial enough boost in sentiment. Risk appetite has been teased, and risk assets across the global, beginning in the Asian session yesterday, and carrying through European and North American trade, have dutifully rallied, consequently. It’s a synchronized boost, prevaili
The Fed Finds Themselves in a Market, Economic and Credibility Quandary
There is a lot of high-profile event risk – both data and events – on the docket this week. The distinction of importance for these potential catalysts is defined by their capacity to tap into more systemic fundamental themes. By that evaluation, there is a lot that can further shape our collective interests/concerns through trade wars, concerns over stalled global growth and the inadequacies of monetary policy as a fi
Another ‘Brexit Breakthrough’ Falls Apart
Yet another potential breakthrough in the Brexit stalemate seemed to be hashed out at the beginning of this past week following hours of legal negotiation and closed doors discussions. Supposedly, a draft bill was worked out that both the Prime Minister and top European Union negotiators were comfortable moving forward with. If there were only two parties which needed to be satisfied in this divorce, that would be that. However, there are multiple p
Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia
What’s making headlines: There’s an hour and a half to go in the US session and global equities are up. Let’s assume they finish that way – there is plenty of room for clarification (and rationalization) late-on, if need be. Traders have taken the new green shoots in the trade-war and spun them into a positive narrative. Sure, the old green shots lay trampled below the new ones, but perhaps this time around the positivity will be given a chance to thrive
Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia
Risk? No, thanks: Markets have given a resounding “nope” to all varieties of risk overnight. Equities have been slogged on Wall Street, following to a sluggish day in European markets, that saw the FTSE drop 0.2 per cent and the DAX shed 0.85 per cent. Here it looks like this is the convergence punters have been calling: US shares are playing a rapid catch-up with their global counterparts. The losses are piling up. The NASDAQ has been hit the worst in t
A shift in perceptions: The fundamentals shifted on Friday. It wasn't a complete "180", but enough to change market sentiment in favour of the Bulls. The highly anticipated monthly Non-Farm Payrolls figure, along with US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's interview, delivered the goldilocks outcome market participants were craving. For those holding hope for financial markets and the global economy, the information gathered from each event soothed nerves that a major global economic slowdown
Politics and Markets
There are numerous, open political fissures around the world – including the approaching Brexit deadline; the ongoing flux of Euro-area stability and Chinese social pressure arising from economic concerns. Each of these represents significant headline fodder both within their respective country as well as in the international press. Yet, as many newspaper column inches or top headlines in online news aggregators these issues may represent, they don’t naturally adapt to
American stocks fall: Wall Street looks poised to register its worst daily performance since the start of the year. The technical action was sweet: another early challenge of 2815 – the price ran slightly above that – before the bears swooned, and traders “pulled the trigger”. It’s been a day of selling since, with the S&P500 down 0.6 - 0.8 per cent, at time of writing. It’s nothing to be too concerned about, of course. This is nothing like the behaviour witness at the end of last year. It’s
What are Central Banks Attempting to Achieve at This Point?
Over the past two weeks, we have seen major central banks loosen the reins on monetary policy or otherwise set the stage to move further into unorthodox policies. The most notable moves were made by the European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve. The latter cut its benchmark by 25 basis points to bring its range down to a high level of 2.00 percent – though it maintained its increasingly dubious position that it expects no fu
Earnings optimism tempers the markets’ mood: Financial market participants curbed their enthusiasm yesterday. Friday’s brief excitement on Wall Street relating to a handful of earnings beats from some of the US’s big banks failed to translate into meaningful momentum to begin the new trading week. Such a dynamic was also evident throughout the Asian session. The ASX200 closed flat for the day, and Chinese stocks rallied and retraced all in the space of a few hours. The Nikkei was higher for the
The headline news: The trade-war headlines are coming in thick-and-fast, with none of them truly substantial. Nevertheless, they have proven sufficient to belt market sentiment around, and dictate financial market activity, once again. A re-cap of the (dis-jointed) narrative is handy, for the benefit of context. Yesterday our time, markets trembled on news that, at one of his notorious “MAGA” rallies, US President Trump announced he thought the Chinese “broke a [trade] deal”. Stock markets fell.
A thus far settled start to the week: It was a day of low activity and mixed results, generally across global markets in the last 24-hours. Equities were patchy in their performance, on much lower than average volumes, while a retracing in bonds revealed stable risk-sentiment. It hasn't been so for some time, but yesterday market participants behaved in a classic "Monday" way. There was a lack of a unifying theme to drive market activity in a macro-sense, leaving traders to trade-off the idiosyn
A Return to Extreme Volatility and Realization It Won’t Stay This Quiet for Long
Any way you cut it, the markets are experiencing extreme levels of inactivity. And, for those that are satisfied with the superficial and textbook interpretations of the mainstream measures, this seems like a cue to leverage exposure and commit to the decade-long bull trend which blossomed under the controlled conditions. Previously, traders would have been readily satisfied by the readings and thrown in with
ASX’s looming recovery: The ASX200 has clawed itself to a level on the cusp of validating the notion that the market has bottomed. It might feel that we ought to already be at that stage, given we sit 7-and-a-half per cent of the markets lows. But turnarounds take time to be confirmed, and now having broken psychological-resistance at 5800, Australian equities are inches away from that point. There are counterarguments to be made, to be fair: the recent rally has come on the back of lower volume
Elevated volatility and choppy trade: Volatility is still elevated. It's one moment up and one moment down. Price action and sentiment is shifting all in the space of a single session. The extreme vacillations in price and sentiment are wrung by the twisting fortunes of the global economy's two major forces: the Chinese and US economies. Day-to-day, markets are playing out like a game of pong, with one side rising only to strike the ball in the opposite direction to send the other diving lower.
Fear of an increase in protectionism from the United States causes Asian equity markets to dip.
Profit warnings rise 29% quarter on quarter to 58 FTSE listed companies. Retail sector leads the way, and its expected the earnings shall continue due to uncertainty in the future.
Brexit secretary Raab says that the ‘no deal’ option is still on the table. GBP opened marginally down, but came back and has now gained from the Friday close.
G20 central bank leaders have warned that
Not with a bang, but with a whimper? Without all the fire and fury that we saw in December, markets are pricing in once again a slow down in global economic growth. It could be strongly argued this is evidence of how important US Fed support is to equity market strength – but that’s a drum to beaten (over-and-over-again) for another day. Fundamentally, traders are quietly re-pricing for a world where economic growth will be weaker than once thought. Such behaviour has been long evident in Chines
UK Competition and Markets Authority have formally blocked the proposed £7.3 billion takeover of Asda by Sainsbury's causing the merger to collapse.
Corporate earnings reports see European stocks set to open slightly higher. The FTSE 100 rising 9 points to 4780. Whereas Wall Street ended Wednesday's session lower following mixed US corporate results.
Despite beating analysts expectations UBS reported a 27% fall in net profit for it's first quarter when compared to the same period
Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia
A relief rally, now onto the next risk: The relief rally for market-bulls was sweet, but fleeting: it’s on to the next risk event now. Traders are being inundated by information, much of it speculative. Against this backdrop, volatility reigns: while off its highs still, the VIX is up 2.7 per cent on the day. To be clear, the Fed’s dovishness and Mr. Powell’s-famous-Put is underwriting the potential for future bullishness. But market participants can’t a
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