Bullishness settles: The ASX200 was sold into the close on a day where the market's bullishness stalled. Nevertheless, the index ended the day in the green, adding 10 points. It's a very headline driven market currently, and the finger is being pointed to news that the US and China are squabbling over intellectual property protections as the cause for the cooler sentiment. US markets were closed for the Martin Luther King Day public holiday, so the lack of tradeable information probably hindered
Amid the political uncertainty surrounding Brexit, the Bank of England has advised UK lenders to triple their holdings of liquid assets in the run-up to Brexit to prepare for a forecast market meltdown if the UK leaves the EU without a deal later this month. Banks are also being told to adjust their balance sheets on the assumption that they will not be able to swap sterling for USD.
Worries over an economic slowdown intensified on Friday after US jobs data significantly missed forecasts,
A good end to last week; a rough start to this week: Markets are going to be digesting some conflicting information to begin the week. Wall Street ended last week’s trading with a boost, following another economic release, this time Non-Farm Payrolls figures, that could reasonably be dubbed “goldilocks”. However, the weekend proved to bring with it some tumult that market participants thought they’d left behind in 2018: an agitated North Korea has gone back to firing missiles into the ocean, and
Chinese growth has officially fallen to its slowest in 28 years. Fourth quarter figures have been announced which confirm analysts’ expectations that growth would be 6.4%, averaging 6.6% for the year.
The US shutdown has now entered its 30th day. Trump offered protections for ‘Dreamers’ in an attempt to negotiate but this was quickly rejected by democrats as inadequate. Analysts now believe the shutdown will cause a 0.25% reduction in growth figures for the first quarter of 2019.
Lyft, the ride-hailing company and one of Uber's main competitors, has begun its investor roadshow to pitch its Nasdaq listing as it looks to raise $2bn at a valuation of around $23bn. The company suggested a price range between $62 and $68 per share in its filing to the SEC on Monday, and will use the ticker symbol LYFT when it begins trading. This is a first indication of what ride sharing companies could be worth in public markets as we await Uber's IPO in the coming months.
Relief-on? It’s a trifle difficult to describe last night’s trade simply. On the surface, risk assets are being reasonably well supported, and there are a few signals suggesting market participants are in a slightly more bullish state of mind. Rather than “risk-on” however, one might describe the last 12 hours in markets as “relief-on”. This is mostly due to the fact that, at least for now, the global bond market rally has stalled. Markets had worked themselves into a frenzy this week, fretting
Theresa May has announced that she has secured "legally binding changes" to the withdrawal agreement ahead of the pivotal vote on her deal in the House of Commons this evening. Specifically, the changes mean that the Irish backstop would not "become permanent".
The pound soared after the news broke rising to a high of $1.3290 before falling back down to its current level of $1.3208, still up over 2% from Monday's low.
Boeing shares have fallen over 5% after the fatal plane crash in
Politics and Markets
There are numerous, open political fissures around the world – including the approaching Brexit deadline; the ongoing flux of Euro-area stability and Chinese social pressure arising from economic concerns. Each of these represents significant headline fodder both within their respective country as well as in the international press. Yet, as many newspaper column inches or top headlines in online news aggregators these issues may represent, they don’t naturally adapt to
China’s data inspires relief: The Middle Kingdom was at the centre of financial market focus yesterday. Informally dubbed the “monthly economic data-dump”, market participants were granted the opportunity to test the thesis that the global economy’s Q1 malaise is turning around. And though it was only one set of numbers, the answer received from the Chinese data to this quandary was to the affirmative. China’s GDP figures beat economist’s estimates, printing at 6.4 per cent against the 6.3 per c
Monday’s Open: Trade Wars Status Quo That Really Isn’t
The G-20 Summit has passed and by the accounts of the key players, the results were encouraging. I guess no new fronts have been added to the global economic conflict after the two-day meeting, so that is a silver lining we can hold onto if we wanted to be optimistic to the point of true enthusiasm. According to President Trump’s account of his meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, their discussion was a success as it repor
Risk-assets up, but trade was tepid: The overnight session was, on balance, positive for risk assets, though the conviction behind market-moves was missing. The S&P500 – the natural barometer for market-mood currently – experienced a middling day. It’s closed more-or-less flat, having made a failed foray higher throughout Wall Street trade, to have sold off right-below crucial resistance at 2800. For the bulls in the market, circumstances didn’t fundamentally change last night. The short-ter
Market stress: The world economy and financial markets are displaying further signs of duress as traders enter the mid-part of the week. Trade War fears hang over markets like a darkening cloud, and emerging markets are wobbling and appear on the verge of a greater crisis. Of the two prevailing concerns, the problems within emerging market economies is slowly taking greatest attention. The South African economy looks to be slipping into recession and Argentinian policy makers are scrambling rega
Activity lifts to end last week: A risk laden week has ended with a pop. Asian and European trade was solid, albeit dull. However, it was a clear-cut-case of risk-on during the North American session. The new fuel to the S&P500s fire came as US earnings season kicked-off in earnest. JP Morgan, and a handful of America’s other big-banks, reported and generally surprised to the upside. The catalyst served two purposes: one, it supported (granted prematurely) the view that assumed earnings grow
Stocks finish week on solid footing: Global equities finished last week on a solid footing. Across Asia, Europe and North America, the major share indices closed both Friday and the week in the green – the only notable exception being the FTSE100, which has dipped (typically) because of a stronger Sterling. The solid run into the week’s close came courtesy of more friendly-trade-war headlines, suggesting that significant progress is being made in US-China trade negotiations. A bit of headline ju
Fed sparks bullish sentiment: Traders were bullish overnight, but as far global equities go, the ultimate results were mixed. Activity has been very high, that’s irrefutable. Volumes flowing into stocks have been much higher than average, no matter where you look. Fundamentally, the Fed has lit a fire under markets, and traders are repositioning to adjust to a new set of circumstances. The fundamentals have shifted in quite a meaningful way. It’s the notion that the Fed will maintain monetary po
Lyft, the most recent high profile IPO, shares have seen huge trading activity over the first two days of trading as over 41.5 million shares were traded, well over the 32.5 million offered in the IPO. However, the ride-hailing company saw it's shares slump 12% on its second day of trading down to $69.01, below the official IPO price of $72. The downturn comes after the stock rallied to a high of $88.60 on Friday.
US equities surged on Monday due to strong manufacturing data as factory ac
Markets returning to normal trade: Traders in the US and UK returned to their desks overnight, and if price action is any guide, their verdict of the weekend news flow is “not much has really changed”. This isn’t to say the movements in financial markets in the past 12-18 hours have been ones of major conviction. Afterall, volumes are still light and the extent of the moves in price witnessed were modest. Nevertheless, despite what was notionally a tranquil weekend for financial market news, mar
Trump is subject of large-scale investigation by the House Judiciary Committee who have sent requests for documents to 81 individuals. The investigation will look into alleged obstruction of Justice, corruption and potential abuses of power.
Despite positive outlook of US and China trade war, as parties appear closer to reaching formal agreement, U.S stocks saw a downturn after positive opening. The S&P fell 0.4% to 2,792.62, The Dow tumbled 206.67 points to 25,819.65 and the Nasdaq
Growth fears ease; risk taking subdued: Risk appetite wasn't terribly high overnight. But in saying this, the persistent, vexatious concerns regarding the global growth outlook has continued to abate. Markets have become used to modifications in the growth outlook manifesting in a powering of risk-on behaviour. Given the economic backdrop, the reasons for this are pretty intuitive. Just as far as last night's trade, though, this relationship didn’t hold quite so strongly. There were clear signs
US GDP data capped-off last week’s trade: Trade closed last week on something of a puzzling note. The attention, from a macro-economic point-of-view, was fixed in on US GDP data. Amidst all the fears of slower global growth on one hand and hope for a nascent global economic turnaround on the other, the US growth figures were being viewed as a tangible insight into the cogency of each point of view. Ultimately, the data provided little support for one over the other – and perhaps even deepened th
President’s Day: It’s Trump’s market – and we are all just trading in it. It’s perhaps for some – especially market-purists – the uncomfortable reality that, as far as short-term movements and sentiment goes, US President Trump and his policy making is the greatest determinant of the current macro-economic outlook. It cuts in both directions, and certainly the US President is just as prone to deflating the market as he is to inflate it. But almost by his own admission, Trump’s modus operandi is
Chinese factory activity reduces for the third month in a row with Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI at 49.9 for February. A reading above 50 shows expansion
Rolls-Royce announces a pre-tax loss of £2.9billion for 2018, after a profit of £3.89billion in the previous year
Minister George Eustice quits the government in relation to Theresa May’s promise allowing MPs to vote on delaying Brexit, if the deal is rejected
Asia stocks slightly higher with the Hang Seng higher by 0.45
Delaying the pain of uncertainty: The pain of uncertainty, when it comes to two of the world’s big macroeconomic issues, looks likely to persist for a little while yet. Two stories, to be elaborated on in a moment, defined market-headlines overnight: a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping won’t happen until at least April; while the UK House of Commons has voted overwhelmingly to extend the Brexit-deadline, though with no clear path forward from here. The fr
In the latest round of voting in the House of Commons, MP’s voted to set up a series of votes on Wednesday to see which approach to Brexit has the most support. Later, am amendment on whether another extension could be requested if no progress is made on a deal by the 5th of April.
European indices finished the main session down with the FTSE losing 0.42% and the DAX losing 0.15%, 17 points down from the previous day. Meanwhile, US indices traded relatively flat with less that 0.1% change
A three-year legal battle has concluded with the EU enforcing stricter copyright laws that could affect the business models of tech giants like Google and Facebook. The new reform plans to protect artists and publishers whose work has been widely spread on the internet, by making the tech firms responsible for detecting and removing content that infringes copyright law. Google will has been very critical about the new reform saying that it will restrict freedom of expression, as its video-sharin
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