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Stocks higher, yields lower, growth concerns persist: APAC brief - 25 Jul

The S&P500 rallied to another record high, as Wall Street shrugged off poor earnings from industrial mega-companies Boeing and Caterpillar, and instead focused on solid-enough results from US-tech giants. The rally was supported by a new-leg lower in global bond yields, after European manufacturing PMI data greatly disappointed expectations, and reaffirmed the continued slowdown in the Eurozone economy. That gave the DAX a lift. The Euro slipped, the Dollar edged higher, and gold climbed by

KirbyIG

KirbyIG

Dividend Adjustments 29 Jul - 5 Aug

Expected index adjustments Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 29th July 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.     NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 

KirbyIG

KirbyIG

Index Dividend Adjustments 5 Aug - 12 Aug

Expected index adjustments Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 5th Aug 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.     NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a ca

JamesIG

JamesIG

Trump stokes trade wars; side effects of economic wars; central banks strain credibility - DailyFX Key Themes

Another Massive Escalation of the US-China Trade Wars The White House continues to double down on its aggressive posturing against China in a bid to force the county to yield to its demands at the negotiation table. This approach follows a few patterns in economics, sociology and debate whereby the commitment to escalation persists despite growing risks and diminishing return when or if a compromise is struck – such as the ‘escalation of commitment’ behavior. Late this past week, President

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Stocks recover losses on rate-cut hopes: APAC brief - 8 Aug

Stocks recover losses on rate-cut hopes: Wall Street equities climbed into the close, after an ugly open for the US market overnight, while global bond yields continued to fall, on increased bets of interest rate cuts from the world’s largest central banks. When market action is still foggy, it can be hard to draw firm conclusions about cause-and-effect in price action. But it would strongly seem that the latter was responsible for the former during last night’s trade. Hence, US stocks were up o

KirbyIG

KirbyIG

Trump trying to stir volatility?; seasonal lull; Pound near decades low - DailyFX Key Themes

Is Trump Intentionally Stirring Market Volatility? The dust is still settling from the most recent string of reciprocal retaliations between the US and China in their ongoing trade wars. As a brief synopsis, the White House frustrated by the lack of progress in negotiations as they were due to break for a month announced August 1st it would slap a 10 percent tariff on the remaining $300 billion in Chinese goods that it was not already taxing. China responded the following Monday by letting

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Dividend Adjustments 19 Aug - 26 Aug

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 19 Aug 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neu

KirbyIG

KirbyIG

Trade war hits the gas; recession signals increase; Jackson Hole let down - DailyFX Key Themes

Reckless Acceleration of the Trade War With the global (including the US and China) economy already straining under the weight of the ongoing trade wars, the two largest individual economies too steps this past week to leverage the pressure even higher. As expected, China felt it necessary to respond to the upgraded efforts  announced by President Trump on a staggering $300 billion more in Chinese goods – the ‘rest’ of the country’s imports that weren’t already facing a tax. It seems the Wh

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Dividend Adjustments 26 Aug - 2 Sept

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 26 Aug 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral ad

KirbyIG

KirbyIG

Trump focus on Dollar vs Dow; RBA and BOC decisions; a volatility September - DailyFX Key Themes

Is Trump Responding to the Dow – and Would He Prioritize Index Over Dollar?  This past week generated another heavy round of criticism from the US President. In both ad hoc press conferences and tweets, Donald Trump scrutinized a number of economic and financial hurdles that he believes is threatening the health of the US economy. The most familiar critique continued to target the Federal Reserve and specifically its Chairman, Jerome Powell. Trump took to the wires to levy blame against the

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Dividend Adjustments 9 Sept - 16 Sept

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 9 Sept 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral ad

KirbyIG

KirbyIG

ECB rate decision; Brexit no-deal probabilities; Fed anticipation - DailyFX Key Themes

The Global Importance of the ECB Rate Decision  Top event risk - both for concentrated volatility potential for its local currency and global influence via systemic means – over the coming week is hands down the ECB (European Central Bank) rate decision. Under normal circumstances, the monetary policy decision by the world’s second largest central bank is occasion for significant response from local currency and capital markets. For the Euro, the event is made far more potent at this partic

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Questionable central bank objectives; short-term economic objectives; recession signals - DailyFX Key Themes

What are Central Banks Attempting to Achieve at This Point?  Over the past two weeks, we have seen major central banks loosen the reins on monetary policy or otherwise set the stage to move further into unorthodox policies. The most notable moves were made by the European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve. The latter cut its benchmark by 25 basis points to bring its range down to a high level of 2.00 percent – though it maintained its increasingly dubious position that it expects no fu

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Politics and market pricing; trade war deadlines; and recession responses - DailyFX Key Themes

Politics and Markets  There are numerous, open political fissures around the world – including the approaching Brexit deadline; the ongoing flux of Euro-area stability and Chinese social pressure arising from economic concerns. Each of these represents significant headline fodder both within their respective country as well as in the international press. Yet, as many newspaper column inches or top headlines in online news aggregators these issues may represent, they don’t naturally adapt to

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Dividend Adjustments 30 Sept - 7 Oct

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 30 Sept 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  Special Dividends         I

KirbyIG

KirbyIG

Dividend Adjustments 7 Oct - 14 Oct

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 7 Oct 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  Special Dividends         Ind

KirbyIG

KirbyIG

Trade wars; recession fears grow; gold's position - DailyFX Key Themes

The Trade War Spreads to More Critical, Global Growth Organs  We have been unofficially engaged in a global trade war since March 2018. That is when the United States moved forward with a tariff on imported metals (steel and aluminum) from any destination outside of the country. Since this opening salvo, there have been small actions against countries outside the singular focus of China, but the incredible escalation between Washington and Beijing has drawn most of the global attention. Wit

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

APAC brief - 11 Oct

Markets spinning in circles as trade-talks get underway: It’s been a slightly dizzying 24-hours for the financial markets. Speculation is on overdrive regarding the likeliest outcomes for the US-China trade talks. Though it seems like chaos, it all amounts to little more than noise, as short-term traders have fun with trying to profit from the swings in sentiment. Fundamentally, little about the talks can be known yet. However, it seems investors’ cautiousness is turning to hope once again. Amid

KirbyIG

KirbyIG

A US-China trade deal?; hope for Brexit breakthrough; IMF updates on economic outlook - DailyFX Key Themes

Is This a US-China Trade War Turn We Can Rely In?  The market was struck with a broad sense of enthusiasm through the second half of this past week. There were a number of developments – or expectations for forthcoming events – that contributed to this buoyancy. The theme stirring the most optimism was anticipation that the United States and China were finally making progress in their 15-month trade war. Just before the New York close on Friday, officials announced that indeed they had foun

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Brexit next steps; EU-US trade war; EURUSD rally - DailyFX Key Themes

UK Parliament Votes to Delay Brexit Deal, Now What?  Heading into the weekend, overnight implied volatility behind the Cable and other Pound crosses had charged to their highest level in over two years. That reflected well the fundamental weight represented by the first Saturday sitting in the Commons in 37 years. Parliament convened to debate the government’s withdrawal agreement bill which Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to hash out with European negotiators during the EU leaders sum

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Data overload; FOMC and extreme monetary policy; Brexit election vs deadline - DailyFX Key Themes

Market Conditions in Data Overload  Markets often struggle for traction when there is a lack of a clear motivator such as meaningful event risk or an evolving systemically important theme. On the other hand, there are times when a surfeit of important events, indicators and headlines overwhelm the clear speculative picture, leaving us with an abundance of volatility without the benefit of a reliable course. We have dallied with this latter scenario these past weeks, but the constant redirec

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Trade war traction; seasonal risk trends; top events - DailyFX Key Themes

Critical Fundamental Themes to Keep Watch For Next Week: Volatility Slipping Back into Habit of Complacency as Liquidity Fills [Indices, VIX] US-China Trade War – Beyond the Point of De-Escalation? [AUDUSD, USDCNH, Indices]  A Climb in Risk Appetite as More Fundamentals Fall Away [S&P 500, Dow] Recession Warnings In the Market Converging with Those in Data [Indices, Yields, Gold]  Monetary Policy Ability to Stabilize Growth, Markets [EURUS, ECB, Fed, BOJ, G

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

 

Trade war hole; European economic health; no more Fed cuts? - DailyFX Key Themes

The Cost of Drawing Out Trade Wars, Even If They Lift  As with most global military wars of the past, economic engagements exact a toll on the participating countries – and their peers – long after the ceasefire is struck. That is what we need to remember as officials on both sides of the table in the US-China negotiations offer rhetoric that attempts to keep local confidence buoyant. In reality, both governments are trying to walk the fine line whereby local consumers, businesses and inves

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Dividend Adjustments 11 Nov - 18 Nov

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 11 Nov 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral ad

MaxIG

MaxIG

 

Trade war rumor and blackout; Dow breakout or blow off; assuming volatility extremes - DailyFX Key Themes

We Have Unresolved Trade War Issues Guided by Rumor or Complete Blackout  We closed out this past week to a broad swell in risk appetite. This enthusiasm wasn’t consistent for the global markets throughout the week, however, with most of the asset benchmarks that I follow for scope were struggling until the Friday pop. The exception to the rule was once again the seemingly impervious US equity indices. Whether you were evaluating sentiment for the Dow and S&P 500 through the week or the

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

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