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A lackluster night of market action: APAC brief - 5 Jul

A lacklustre night of market action: The Independence Day holiday in the US kept trading activity relatively thin. The ASX200 clocked another new-high, breaking the 6700-level for the first time since November 2007, led by a big, broad-based bounce in the shares bank’s stocks. Equity markets across the global generally eked-out gains for the day, while bond yield were reasonably steady. The Yen and Swiss Franc were the slight outperformers in the G10 currency space, while commodity currencies sl

KirbyIG

KirbyIG

Trump stokes trade wars; side effects of economic wars; central banks strain credibility - DailyFX Key Themes

Another Massive Escalation of the US-China Trade Wars The White House continues to double down on its aggressive posturing against China in a bid to force the county to yield to its demands at the negotiation table. This approach follows a few patterns in economics, sociology and debate whereby the commitment to escalation persists despite growing risks and diminishing return when or if a compromise is struck – such as the ‘escalation of commitment’ behavior. Late this past week, President

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Growth vs monetary policy; top thematic catalysts; December trading Conditions - DailyFX Key Themes

What Matters More to Risk: Healthy Growth or More Stimulus?  This seems like it would be a simple question to answer from a textbook perspective; but if you’ve been active in your investment these past years, reality has clearly deviated from the theoretical. We have seen economic activity the world over progressively struggle for traction. This is not a question of interpretation or the reliability of the signals being triggered. There have been far too many realized indications of strain

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Rate rises slowing - APAC bried 29 Nov

A game of chicken: Did Powell just blink? That’s how last night’s speech from the Fed chair is being interpreted. Debate has raged whether in the face of financial market turmoil, the Fed will be forced to cool its rate-hike rhetoric. Powell’s speech – and this is speculative – may have represented this. Gone was the talk of rates being “a long way” from neutral, and that rates may need to move “past (the) neutral” rate. Instead, it was replaced with the key comment interest rates are “just belo

MaxIG

MaxIG

Markets in 4Q, two-speed trade war, US dollar drivers - DailyFX Key Themes

Markets Heading into October and the Fourth Quarter With this past Friday, we closed out week, month and quarter. The shortest measure was a period of consolidation for most assets – from the top performing US equity indices to the EURUSD’s make over break technical move to trade back into range. More impressive for its deviation from character (statistical norm) was the performance for the month of September. Historically, this period is one of significant upheaval for the capital markets

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

APAC brief - 21 Mar

Relief-on? It’s a trifle difficult to describe last night’s trade simply. On the surface, risk assets are being reasonably well supported, and there are a few signals suggesting market participants are in a slightly more bullish state of mind. Rather than “risk-on” however, one might describe the last 12 hours in markets as “relief-on”. This is mostly due to the fact that, at least for now, the global bond market rally has stalled. Markets had worked themselves into a frenzy this week, fretting

MaxIG

MaxIG

Aussie growth underwhelms: APAC brief 7 June

Aussie growth underwhelms: Australian GDP data was the highlight of the economic calendar yesterday. All-in-all, the data was of minimal impact, though it did for make big headlines: the growth rate came-in at 1.8 per cent on an annualized basis, as expected – the slowest rate of economic growth since the GFC. A poor print undoubtedly, but one that had been priced into the market well in advance. Hence, markets were little moved upon the release. The ASX200 hardly budged. The Australian Dollar l

MaxIG

MaxIG

Bullishness rolls on - APAC brief 17 Jan

Bullishness rolls on: The bullish correction in financial markets continues, and global equity markets are rolling on. It’s a matter of contention as to why this rally hasn’t been faded, just in the short term. Stocks were oversold on a technical basis, and the market internals were very over-stretched at the deepest trough of the recent sell-off. An elastic band effect was expected – a brief snap back in to place. Perhaps complacency will bite at some stage, and the rally in risk-assets will pr

MaxIG

MaxIG

Trade war end and recession; central bank testimony; another Brexit milestone - DailyFX Key Themes

Pricing in Trade Wars Versus Pricing in Recession Risks Investors are starting to see a path form for the United States and China to find a way out of their economically and financially-damaging trade war. After months of little more than a few words of optimism from only one side of the table – which was frequently reversed only days later – we are starting to see conviction from high level officials on both the American and Chinese sides. This past week was the most encouraging period for

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Wall street pull back - APAC brief 22 Feb

Wall Street pulls back: On balance, and with Wall Street a few hours from ending its session, it's been a soft 24 hours for equities. The often heard calls of a looming "new-peak" in the market in the shorter term can be heard from some. Momentum has certainly slowed down. The S&P500 has its eyes one 2815 again - that crucial area where that index sold off on three occasions from October to December last year. It could be a slow drive to arrive at a challenge of that level now. The dovish Fe

MaxIG

MaxIG

Wall Street trade - APAC brief 27 Feb

Wall Street trade: Rolling into Wall Street’s close and the S&P500 is battling it out with the 2800-mark. There’s two hours to go in trade as this is being written, and the crucial last half-hour of trade is what analysts will be breaking down today. It’s been for all intents and purposes a flat day for US stocks, but another bout of selling into the close will add credence to the idea that the buyers are thin at these levels. Market internals don’t appear too stretched for the S&P, and

MaxIG

MaxIG

The bulls keep control - APAC brief 6 Feb

The bulls keep control: SPI futures are indicating that the ASX200 will climb another 20 points at the open, adding to yesterday’s bank-led 1.95 per cent rally. Another solid day on Wall Street can also be pointed-to for the market’s start in the green, with US shares continuing their run-higher. Quietness in Asia courtesy of the Chinese New Year holiday has kept some negative headlines way, aiding the bullishness. Global bond markets are steady, gold is off its highs, and credit spreads keep na

MaxIG

MaxIG

Brexit pains - APAC brief 11 Dec

Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia Day 1 of 5: Monday looks like it may be one of those days where Wall Street hesitantly pulls itself up out of the dirt in the final hours of trade. There is just under two-hours to go in the US session, and at a high level, things appear not-too-bad. Let's return to America a little later. Whichever way we happen to end the first 24 hours of trade for the week, heightened risk, growth fears and bearishness is still driving sentiment. There has been no sh

MaxIG

MaxIG

Political Risks Increase, Sentiment as a Theme, The Liquidity Dearth - DFX key themes

Add Political Risks to Our Long List of Market Concerns It isn’t like we are lacking for fundamental motivation for the global financial markets. If anything, there is a surplus of critical themes that could – if properly induced – could single-handedly turn the universal tide. Nevertheless, it seems we will have to add another principal concern to our list alongside trade wars and the transition away from emergency monetary policy: political risk. This is not an unfamiliar market concern.

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

A (relatively) settled session - APAC brief 12 Dec

Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia A (relatively) settled session: It’s been a soft day for global equities. With almost exactly two-hours to go in the US session at time of writing, another modest rally has apparently been faded by traders. Indications are that Wall Street will close lower. If proven true, this will punctuate a mixed day for Europe, and quite a solid day for the Asian region. The former found little impetus to be bid higher, while the Asian session showed the ebullience

MaxIG

MaxIG

MPs Vote to Take Control of Brexit Process - EMEA Brief 26 Mar

In the latest round of voting in the House of Commons, MP’s voted to set up a series of votes on Wednesday to see which approach to Brexit has the most support. Later, am amendment on whether another extension could be requested if no progress is made on a deal by the 5th of April. European indices finished the main session down with the FTSE losing 0.42% and the DAX losing 0.15%, 17 points down from the previous day. Meanwhile, US indices traded relatively flat with less that 0.1% change

IGAaronC

IGAaronC

China's Manufacturing PMI Beats Expectations - EMEA Brief 01 Apr

Confidence returns to the markets as Asian stocks rallied on Monday over positive Chinese factory gauges and signs of progress in US-China trade talks boosted investor sentiment. Manufacturing activity in China expanded at its fastest pace in eight months in March, reading 50.8 and beating analysts' expectations of 49.9. Bloomberg has announced that Chinese government bonds will be included in its Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate index, a global benchmark of government securities. This

JoeIG

JoeIG

Market stress - APAC brief 05 Sep

Market stress: The world economy and financial markets are displaying further signs of duress as traders enter the mid-part of the week. Trade War fears hang over markets like a darkening cloud, and emerging markets are wobbling and appear on the verge of a greater crisis. Of the two prevailing concerns, the problems within emerging market economies is slowly taking greatest attention. The South African economy looks to be slipping into recession and Argentinian policy makers are scrambling rega

JasmineC

JasmineC

ASX missed the party yesterday - APAC brief 14 Feb

ASX missed the party yesterday: The ASX bucked the trend yesterday, at least across the Asian region, closing 0.26 per cent lower at 6063. Ostensibly, Australian shares missed-out on the party: global equities were noticeably higher across the board, with the other major regional indices in China, Japan and Hong Kong adding well in excess of 1 per cent for the day. Though a step-back for the Bulls, it's no cause for alarm: the price action speaks of a few idiosyncratic quirks on the ASX200 yeste

MaxIG

MaxIG

Bullishness settles - APAC brief 22 Jan

Bullishness settles: The ASX200 was sold into the close on a day where the market's bullishness stalled. Nevertheless, the index ended the day in the green, adding 10 points. It's a very headline driven market currently, and the finger is being pointed to news that the US and China are squabbling over intellectual property protections as the cause for the cooler sentiment. US markets were closed for the Martin Luther King Day public holiday, so the lack of tradeable information probably hindered

MaxIG

MaxIG

US-China deadline risk; Fed and ECB risks; UK election - DailyFX Key Themes

Anticipation and Scenarios Into the Sunday US Deadline for China Tariff Escalation  The active week of trade ahead will be pocked by a few very high profile events which will tap into key themes. Monetary policy and Brexit updates – both with explicit growth implications – are top listings while liquidity is readily available. Yet, one of the most potent potential events ahead has a deadline that occurs over the weekend. The United States warned some months ago that it would increase the ta

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Asian Equities Sell-Off; Oil Plunges - EMEA Brief 25 Mar

Shares in Asia fell more than 2% amid growing fears that a recession is on the horizon, Japan's Topix was impacted the most as the index dropped 2.5% at the close. The Hang Seng, ASX 200 and the Shanghai Composite followed and all fell by at least 1%. Numerous reports over the weekend suggested that senior ministers were plotting to oust Theresa May as doing so could enhance support of her Brexit deal, although this has been denied. Mrs May is set to meet cabinet ministers today to update

GeorgeIG

GeorgeIG

A night of mixed trade: APAC brief - 17 Jul

A night of mixed trade: Overnight trade might be considered an elegant microcosm for the affairs of financial markets right now. The news flow shifted from mixed, to bearish, to bullish, then back to mixed again. The story began with a US Retail Sales data-beat, that cast doubts on the Fed’s need to cut interest rates. That doubt was compounded by more soft-ish bank earnings in the US. The mood then turned decidedly nervous on headlines US President Trump stated his willingness to increasing tar

KirbyIG

KirbyIG

Wall Street eyes all-time highs - APAC brief 1 April

The start of something new: A new day, week, month and quarter today; and what a difference a little time can make. 3 months ago, at least for some, global financial markets stood at the brink of ruin. It was December 24 last year that the S&P500 hit its low, but it wasn’t until the start of January that something resembling a turnaround in US stocks transpired. Fast forward to now, and Wall Street is over 12 per cent higher, and though at stages has looked extremely vulnerable to turnaround

MaxIG

MaxIG

President’s Day: APAC brief 18 Feb

President’s Day: It’s Trump’s market – and we are all just trading in it. It’s perhaps for some – especially market-purists – the uncomfortable reality that, as far as short-term movements and sentiment goes, US President Trump and his policy making is the greatest determinant of the current macro-economic outlook. It cuts in both directions, and certainly the US President is just as prone to deflating the market as he is to inflate it. But almost by his own admission, Trump’s modus operandi is

MaxIG

MaxIG

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