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Trade War Progress Ripples Through Markets - EMEA Brief 25 Feb

Developments have been made in the US-China trade war with Trump announcing ‘substantial progress’ has been made by both sides resulting in the hike on Chinese imports being delayed. Theresa May is set to meet world leaders in Egypt later today. Yesterday she announced there will be a new vote on her deal by the 12th of March but has faced criticism that this is just 17 days before the deadline. Asian markets have rallied on the back of the trade war announcement, with the Shanghai

IGAaronC

IGAaronC

Trade war measures, Dollar alternatives, risk trends and yields - DFX Key Themes

It Can Be Difficult to Measure Complex Issues Like Trade Wars When dealing with a complex fundamental theme – without a binary outcome, numerous inputs and important to different investors for different reasons – it can be difficult to both analyze and trade the subject. Those are certainly criteria that would fit the ongoing trade war. It is proving exceptionally difficult to keep a clear bead on the progress of the economic conflict and the market has started to veer back into its comfort

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Trade war hopes; US government shutdown; key Brexit vote - DailyFX Key Themes - EMEA and Americas

Ending a Trade War is a Windfall for Growth?  US and Chinese trade officials met this past week to lay the groundwork for another attempt to push for a breakthrough in the superpowers’ ongoing trade war. These are lower level meetings aimed at finding concessions and terms for which Trump and Xi would eventually sign off on. With over $350 billion in goods from both countries saddled with import taxes, the economic toll the engagement is exacting is starting to show through in data. In the

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Trade war hits the gas; recession signals increase; Jackson Hole let down - DailyFX Key Themes

Reckless Acceleration of the Trade War With the global (including the US and China) economy already straining under the weight of the ongoing trade wars, the two largest individual economies too steps this past week to leverage the pressure even higher. As expected, China felt it necessary to respond to the upgraded efforts  announced by President Trump on a staggering $300 billion more in Chinese goods – the ‘rest’ of the country’s imports that weren’t already facing a tax. It seems the Wh

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Trade war end and recession; central bank testimony; another Brexit milestone - DailyFX Key Themes

Pricing in Trade Wars Versus Pricing in Recession Risks Investors are starting to see a path form for the United States and China to find a way out of their economically and financially-damaging trade war. After months of little more than a few words of optimism from only one side of the table – which was frequently reversed only days later – we are starting to see conviction from high level officials on both the American and Chinese sides. This past week was the most encouraging period for

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Trade War 'Relief', Key Rate Decisions and Apple Earnings - DailyFX Key Themes

Trade War Relief, But How Much? Finally, some trade war respite. Or at least, what looks like relief. Following week after week of steadily escalating threats and a few decisive actions (and retaliations) along the way, there was finally a joint statement of agreement between key global leaders. Following their meeting in Washington DC, US President Donald Trump and European Union President Jean Claude-Juncker issued a statement of success this past Wednesday. Any pause in this quickly bal

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Trade War - APAC brief 25 Sep

Trade War: Markets were made to curb their enthusiasm overnight. Trade war realities bit again and the relief rally that had defined last week’s trade dissipated. It’s not a terrible cause for alarm yet, but it highlights how difficult to predict the impact on global trade disruption happens to be. It’s a debate that challenges orthodoxy, especially given that markets have done all they can to shrug off the potential consequences new-protectionism will have on global growth. Inefficiencies aboun

JasmineC

JasmineC

Trade Talks Restart - EMEA Brief 29 Mar

US-China trade talks have restarted in Beijing as U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Friday that he had a "productive working dinner" the previous night. Investors are hopeful that progress will be made to resolve the bitter trade dispute between the two largest global economies, amid growing concern of a slowing economy as the bond market signals a possible incoming recession.  Theresa May is set to make a third attempt to pass a Brexit deal today, as the MPs are asked to vot

JoeIG

JoeIG

Trade talks knocked as Trump threatens to quit NAFTA - EMEA brief 03 Sep

Asian markets were largely negative, dropping for a 3rd consecutive session on further trade escalation US - Canada trade talks knocked as Trump threatens to quit NAFTA altogether US markets closed for Labor Day Oil prices dipped lower on Monday on the back of rising supply from OPEC and the U.S Asian overnight: The two main rounds of negotiation on Friday have come back to bite markets at the start of this week, with the breakdown in US-Canada trade talks and UK-EU Br

ChrisWa

ChrisWa

Trade negotiations - APAC brief 29 Aug

Trade negotiations: Global markets ended last week on the back foot, after trade talks between the US and Canada stripped traders of some hope that the global trade-war may be de-escalating. It was figured that following the relatively positive developments in US-Mexico trade negotiations early last week that perhaps a change of tact was emerging from US President Trump’s administration regarding global trade. Hopes were quashed upon news that negotiations between the US and Canada had broken do

JasmineC

JasmineC

Theresa May survives, Second Canadian diplomat apprehended in China - EMEA Brief 13 Dec

Prime Minister Theresa May won a vote of no confidence in her leadership of the Conservative party last night. The results showed that Mrs May won the vote by 200 to 117, securing 63% of the total votes, she is now immune from any further vote's of no confidence for a year. GBP has fallen back from Wednesday's highs despite Theresa May successfully defending her leadership as investors believed she would win by a larger majority, the pound is currently trading at $1.2617 against the dolla

GeorgeIG

GeorgeIG

Theme overload, Fed's Powell's testimony, China data - DFX key themes

So Much Risk, Status Quo is an Improvement In individual trading sessions or entire weeks where there is an overwhelming amount of important, scheduled event risk; we often find the market frozen with concern of imminent volatility. Even as a remarkable surprise prints on the docket early in the week, the impact it generates is often truncated by the concern that the subsequent release can generate just as much shock value but in the opposite direction. Many opportunities have been spoiled

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

The Turkish lira squeeze - EMEA Brief 28 Mar

Gold prices edged higher after falling on Wednesday. Globally declining treasury yields could increase demand for the yellow-metal if a stock rout were to take place. Spot contracts hit $1311.54 at 6:00am GMT on the IG Web Trading Platform.  Palladium slumped 6% on Wednesday on concerns of slowing demand from the automotive and electronic appliances sectors. Slowing global growth could drown the metal, which hit a record $1620.52 last week. Oil slumped on Wednesday on reports that

IG-Andi

IG-Andi

The tone of overnight trade - APAC Brief 9 Nov

Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia The tone of overnight trade: All eyes back on the fundamentals – that’s the attitude now. The post US mid-term election rally stalled overnight, as investors turn their attention to this morning’s US Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed have kept interest rates on hold – that much was already baked into the price. Market activity to close the week will primarily be dictated now by how market participants interpret the language in the Fed’s accompanying polic

MaxIG

MaxIG

The tariffs get hiked: APAC brief 13 May

The tariffs get hiked: The latest round of trade talks didn’t have the desired outcome. But nevertheless, the always forward-looking equity market closed last week on something of a high-note. It was a choppy day’s trade in Asia as the news filtered through that an agreement between the US and China in Washington wouldn’t be reached. Ultimately though, and just like the last time tariffs were hiked, financial markets handled the news with aplomb. The simplest explanation for why there wasn’t a h

MaxIG

MaxIG

The pull-back is here - APAC brief 23 Jan

The pull-back is here: The pull-back markets were waiting for – the one we inevitably had to have – has arrived. It’s risk-off across financial markets and the optimism that drove global stocks off their December lows has subsided. Relatively speaking, it’s been a day of significant downside, but nothing yet to warrant tremendous fear. It should be common knowledge, but it bears repeating: proper validation that global equities have truly established a recovery ought to be judged not by the late

MaxIG

MaxIG

The pattern continues - APAC brief 12 Dec

Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia The pattern continues: Wall Street indices have been swinging about madly again. The pattern continues: an open, a rally or fall, then a retracement or recovery. Today we’ve had an open, a rally, then retracement, then a recovery again. There were stories behind this price-action. Everything that happened overnight appeared perfectly explicable. One wonders though if the swings in trading activity are being overly attributed to headlines. Or perhaps it’s

MaxIG

MaxIG

The new week - APAC brief 08 Oct

It’s likely global markets will sway to begin the week, in a bid to find some semblance of equanimity following a raucous week. The international bond rout will be the essential force underpinning price action, with other markets and asset classes to take cues from there. Anxieties regarding trade wars and global growth will probably become more present too, as Chinese traders return from holiday, adding a layer of uncertainty on-top of increasingly volatile fundamentals. The shaky sentiment wil

JasmineC

JasmineC

The meaningful vote: not-so-bad outcome or disaster? - EMEA Brief 15 Jan

Crude oil bounced higher overnight after a free-fall since Friday. WTI floated past $51.50 a barrel, after gaining 1.29%, as the markets struggle to balance out the OPEC production cuts with concerns over global growth and increased US production.  Gold prices held steady as investors balance out the strong trading session in Asia with expectations of fewer interest rate hikes by the US Fed. The yellow metal lost about 0.2%, trading at $1,291.33 at 6am GMT. Asian equities gained as

IG-Andi

IG-Andi

The latest from Trump - APAC brief 4 Mar

Are things not so bad after all? It appears there’s emerged a self-reinforcing belief that economic fundamentals aren’t as bad as once thought. There’s not a simple binary that can be reduce out of this – a clear “risk-off” or “risk-on” signal. It’s clear there remains a general sense that the global economy is entering a soft-patch. But in that, is the key: slower growth is taken as granted, however the extent of such a slowdown is ostensibly being revised. There isn’t quite (just for the momen

MaxIG

MaxIG

The future of Europe in question: APAC brief 27 May

Global political economy in focus: International diplomacy, politics and global trade are at centre of attention to begin the new week. Indeed, that’s in part due to the corporate and economic calendar appearing relatively lighter, being the final week of the month; as well as the fact the UK and US are off on public holidays on Monday. But even in the absence of other hard-hitting, high impact news, the confluence of politics-related headlines merits attention in their own right. And it spans t

MaxIG

MaxIG

The EUR takes a hit as ECB is dovish - EMEA brief 08 March

The Euro was nearing a 21-month low yesterday as the ECB was perceived to be dovish after its speech, ahead of US jobs data to be released today. During Thursday's session the EURUSD hit $1.1176, its lowest since June 2017, as the ECB announced it had pushed back the first rate increase to at least 2020 and announced a new round of TLTRO funding for European Banks. China has reported worse than expected trade data for the month of February. Its dollar-denominated exports fell by 20.7 per

DanielaIG

DanielaIG

The ECB to announce its monetary policy amid growing tensions within the Eurozone - EMEA brief 25 Oct

The European Central Bank is announcing its monetary policy today, with expectations that Mario Draghi will confirm that the ECB stands by its plan to end its quantitative easing program by the end of the year. The euro plunges on Wednesday as concerns over the Eurozone growth continue. Italian government bonds remain at year-highs as the EU has rejected the country's deficit plan. Yields are expected to remain high over the next few weeks as the Italian government says that the bu

DanielaIG

DanielaIG

The control of the market - APAC brief 24 Jan

The control of the market: The bulls and bears are circling one another, with neither to take control in a meaningful way this week. There is a vacillating in sentiment, maybe as each side recognizes that not enough information has emerged this week to tip favour towards one camp or another. Moments like these can be opportunities whereby markets build to a breaking point. It becomes a matter now of waiting for the necessary evidence to buy-in or sell-out. Headlines are determining intra-day mov

MaxIG

MaxIG

The bulls keep control - APAC brief 6 Feb

The bulls keep control: SPI futures are indicating that the ASX200 will climb another 20 points at the open, adding to yesterday’s bank-led 1.95 per cent rally. Another solid day on Wall Street can also be pointed-to for the market’s start in the green, with US shares continuing their run-higher. Quietness in Asia courtesy of the Chinese New Year holiday has kept some negative headlines way, aiding the bullishness. Global bond markets are steady, gold is off its highs, and credit spreads keep na

MaxIG

MaxIG

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