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Equities Q4 Fundamental Forecast: Short-Term Uncertainties But Longer-Term Fortunes

S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 Outlook. China’s So-Called Lehman Moment. Global Tapering Underway.   Throughout the third quarter, there had been somewhat of a reversal in the reflation trade as concerns over the peak in the global growth lingered, alongside the continued spread of the Delta variant. However, despite this, life after lockdown continues as vaccination rates across the globe pick up and while the latest concerns stemming from China have catalysed m

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FTSE 100 Price Outlook: Global Stock Market Rally May be Short-Lived

FTSE 100 PRICE, NEWS AND ANALYSIS: Several factors are lifting stock markets near term, including hopes that an agreement on the US debt ceiling is close, Putin’s offer to stabilize the world energy markets and a potential meeting of Xi and Biden. However, worries about China persist, and this rally may just reflect some short-covering and dip-buying before stock markets head lower again.   FTSE 100 RALLY MAY NOT LAST LONG World stock markets, including London’s,

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USD Breaking News: Bullish Dollar Environment Holds as ADP Beats Estimates

U.S. DOLLAR ANALYSIS 568K ADP print favors further dollar gains. Higher yields giving impetus to further dollar upside. Focus shifts to Friday’s NFP data.   DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP ADP SURPASSES EXPECTATIONS The ADP employment change data for September hit 568K, significantly exceeding forecasts. Leading up to the ADP announcement, the U.S. dollar index lessened slightly as markets awaited the data print but quickly regained its upside momentum. A

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GBP/USD At Risk of Being a Victim to BoE Rate Bets, Why is NZD Weak After RBNZ Hike?

NZD, GBP ANALYSIS AND NEWS RBNZ Hikes Rates for the First Time in 7yrs, NZD Underperforms The Pound is Likely to be Another Victim of Aggressive Tightening Bets RBNZ HIKES RATES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 7YRS Overnight, the RBNZ raised interest rates by 25bps to 0.75%, marking the first hike in 7-years. The Bank also signalled that further withdrawal of stimulus will be needed. However, the initial move higher in the Kiwi had been quickly pared with the currency subsequen

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Canadian Dollar Caged in by Inflation Favouring USD on Energy. Where to for USD/CAD?

CANADIAN DOLLAR, USD/CAD, US DOLLAR, INFLATION, US YIELDS - TALKING POINTS: The Canadian Dollar was overwhelmed by US yields despite sky-high crude oil. APAC equities lost ground as inflationary fears from energy markets grow. USD stronger, including against commodity currencies. Where to for USD/CAD?   The Canadian Dollar retreated today as the US Dollar found support, with yields moving aggressively higher on inflationary fears. The energy surge continues, wi

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British Pound Outlook: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY May Rise as Retail Traders Gradually Sell

BRITISH POUND, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, RETAIL TRADER POSITIONING - TALKING POINTS: Retail traders increasingly bet that the British Pound may weaken. Contrarian signals hint that GBP/USD and GBP/JPY could rise. Sterling rectangle breakout struggles, GBP/JPY facing triangle.   According to IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), retail investors are increasingly betting that the British Pound may weaken against the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. IGCS can at times

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S&P 500 and Dow Jones Stage Strong Rally as Dip Buyers Step In - Now What?

S&P 500 AND DOW JONES TALKING POINTS: S&P 500 and Dow Jones rally and wipe out most of Monday’s losses Tech and financial-oriented companies lead the charge higher Traders now await the September NFP report, which could influence the FOMC’s decision on when to taper assets purchases Most read: Nasdaq 100 Nears One-Year Channel Support, Key Technical Levels to Watch After a broad-based sell-off at the start of the week, U.S. stoc

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British Pound (GBP) Price Outlook: GBP/USD Downtrend May Resume

GBP PRICE, NEWS AND ANALYSIS: After its decent rally since the end of last month, GBP/USD now looks likely to fall back, although it could remain around the 1.36 level for a while first. Talk in the UK media of stagflation persists, and a dire set of new car registration figures will do nothing to counter that narrative.   GBP/USD COULD HOLD STEADY, THEN DROP GBP/USD is in an interesting position, having rallied from the September 29 low at 1.3412 to around 1.36.

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US Dollar Leaps as Energy Soars and Equities Struggle. Will USD Make a New High?

US DOLLAR, CRUDE OIL, AUD/USD, RBA, PBOC, RBNZ - TALKING POINTS: USD rallied as equities came under pressure amid a tech rout. RBA delivered as expected, RBNZ ahead may not be clear cut. Energy in hot demand. What does it mean for USD from here?   The US Dollar gained ground against all the majors on safe-haven buying. The commodity currencies – AUD, CAD, NOK and NZD – lost more ground than others as risk-off sentiment permeated markets. Crude oil maintain

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Oil prices trading at multi-year highs following OPEC-plus news

In this article we break down the OPEC+ decision to limit output increases and look at how crude prices are reacting to the news.    Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Tuesday 05 October 2021. IG Oil prices trading at multi-year highs on OPEC-plus news Oil prices have continued to gain, trading to multi-year highs following a meeting between the Organisa

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Markets Q4 Outlook: Dow Jones, US Dollar, Gold, Fed, Euro, ECB, Oil, Volatility Returns?

Markets Q4 Outlook As investors head into the fourth quarter, the VIX Volatility Index - often referred to as the market’s ‘fear gauge’ - is in an uptrend. In September, US benchmark stock indices saw some of the worst monthly performance since March 2020. In fact, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 finished the third quarter little changed. More importantly, they trimmed most of their gains. The Dow Jones declined. Most of the market jitters unfolded into the tail end of the third qu

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GBP/USD Bounce Rejected at Key Fibonacci Level as USD Sellers Struggle For Momentum

TALKING POINTS: GBP/USD faces strong resistance just below 1.36 With a light economic calendar this week, focus will be on NF data out on Friday. GBP/USD is struggling to break above a key Fibonacci level despite continued support from buyers. The pair has managed to stage a good comeback since last Thursday as the US Dollar has come off slightly from its impressive rally last week but there isn’t a clear path higher as resistance looms close by. The area between the

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Canadian Dollar Jumps on Energy Gains Ahead of OPEC+. Will USD/CAD Break Lower?

CANADIAN DOLLAR, USD/CAD, OPEC+, EVERGRANDE - TALKING POINTS The Canadian Dollar has been supported by higher commodity prices APAC equities, except ASX 200, went lower as Evergrande risks swirl High energy prices boost commodity currencies. Will USD/CAD go lower?   Asian equities were mostly softer today, despite a strong lead from the US on Friday. Uncertainties around Evergrande, OPEC+ and high energy price impacts appeared to weigh on investors’ minds. Main

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US Dollar Holds Gains Ahead of PCE, Consumer Confidence, and ISM Data

KEY TALKING POINTS: PCE, consumer confidence, and ISM data may give insight into USD positioning ahead of NFP next week. GBP/USD, NZD/USD and EUR/USD looking vulnerable despite small bounce.   The Dollar Basket (DXY) is at yearly highs after having its best weekly performance since June. The Dollar has been on a tear this week as currency traders position themselves for an earlier than expected rate rise after last week’s FOMC meeting left a hawkish feeling in markets

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S&P 500 Technical Damage Amid Deteriorating Sentiment, USD/JPY Slides

US Dollar, USD/JPY, S&P 500 Analysis and News: USD/JPY Slides Post Rebalancing. Sentiment in Equity Space Deteriorates. Equity markets are kicking off Q4 much how they closed off Q3, on the backfoot and continuing to follow its typical pattern (Figure 1). In turn, risk currencies are out of favour relative to safe-haven currencies and in particular the Japanese Yen. As I mentioned yesterday, I was tactically bearish USD/JPY, not only due to stretched topside momentum,

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Australian Dollar Grips on to Coal Train in Risk-Off Rout. Will AUD/USD Go Lower?

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, AUD/USD, COAL, CHINA, OPEC+ - TALKING POINTS The Australian Dollar had some yield support early, but not enough. China cracks the whip on their energy producers, adding to demand. High commodity prices, positive yields, what will break AUD/USD?   Overnight, US data was mostly in line with expectations. US GDP printed at 6.7% q/q growth for the second quarter against forecasts of 6.6% while initial jobless claims were a slight miss, coming in

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British Pound Technical Analysis - GBP/USD, GBP/CAD, GBP/NZD

BRITISH POUND, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/NZD - TALKING POINTS GBP/USD volatility took off as sterling plunged and now scopes new lows The move lower in GBP/CAD might have momentum but wider range is intact GBP/NZD has avoided Sterling weakness of late and consolidated. Will it last?   GBP/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The recent move down in GBP/USD saw 2 previous lows breached at 1.3600 and 1.3572. These 2 levels are pivot points and could offer resistance. Previous

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Dividend Adjustments 4th October 2021 - 11th October 2021

Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 4th October 2021. These are projected dividends and likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made. Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. Amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on

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FTSE 100 Technical Analysis: Can it Punch Through its Ceiling?

FTSE 100 TECHNICAL HIGHLIGHTS: The FTSE is coming off strong support, but… Has a fairly strong ceiling to punch through.   The FTSE 100 is making a strong comeback these days after hitting the bottom of a multi-month range and the 200-day moving average. The spring back has in focus a trend-line running lower from the January 2020 high created just before the pandemic roiled markets. In confluence with this trend-line, and perhaps more importantly, is the top-end

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