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Economic stagnation; ECB and other central banks; range trading - DailyFX Key Themes

Growth Takes Center Stage with Peoples’ Congress and OECD Forecasts  Most investors and traders attempt to project into the future in order to take advantage of large market moves before they are priced in and the trend potential is spent. That is perhaps the most basic precept of speculation, yet it also brings with it a range of collective cognitive biases. One such mass psychological distortion is a prioritization of the means over the ends. When looking back to the 2008 financial crisis

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

China-US cease-fire in jeoprady as Huawei CFO is arrested in Canada - EMEA Brief 06 Dec

Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Canada where she faces extradition to the US for violating US sanctions, leading to growing tensions between the China and US that create further doubt about the cease-fire on the tariff war declared over the weekend. Shares in Asian suppliers to Huawei sank on Thursday after the arrest was made pubic. Asian markets fell on Thursday ahead of the highly awaited OPEC meeting to be held in Austria today. The Hang Seng was down 2.62%, the Nikkei fell 1.

DanielaIG

DanielaIG

Deutsche Bank kicks-off European Banking Season - EMEA Brief 24 Oct

Deutsche Bank has kicked off the banking season in Europe today as the bank announced a net profit of €229 million, with analysts expecting a profit of €149 million, as the investment bank branch loses ground. Barclays has followed by beating expectations as net income came in at £1 billion vs. £723 million expected, Jes Staley announced he is "very pleased" with the Q3 results. The EU continues to mount pressure on the Italian government as Valdis Domborvskis, vice-president of the Europ

GeorgeIG

GeorgeIG

Risk appetite despite trade wars; Dollar motivation; political risks rises - DFX key themes

Trade Wars Update: It No Longer Matters?  Seemingly a routine occurrence for the global financial markets, we saw the state of global trade deteriorate yet again through the past week. As expected, the United States went forward with tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese goods. The terms are for a 10 percent rate on a range of imports that will increase to 25 percent by the end of the year. The standard, immediate response from China was quickly implemented, but only on $60 billi

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Tariffs spook markets - EMEA brief 11th July

The Trump house looks to impose 10% tariffs on $200 bln of Chinese goods. Shanghai and Hong Kong equity markets drag down the wider overnight Asian session. The bidding war on Sky continues with Murdoch's Fox offering £14/share beating Comcasts previous £12.50. Copper and zinc slide to 1-year low, oil also sharply lower on trade war fears. Asian overnight: Asian markets were back in the red overnight, as Donald Trump has once again ramped up trade war fears, driving awa

JamesIG

JamesIG

APAC brief - 11 Oct

Markets spinning in circles as trade-talks get underway: It’s been a slightly dizzying 24-hours for the financial markets. Speculation is on overdrive regarding the likeliest outcomes for the US-China trade talks. Though it seems like chaos, it all amounts to little more than noise, as short-term traders have fun with trying to profit from the swings in sentiment. Fundamentally, little about the talks can be known yet. However, it seems investors’ cautiousness is turning to hope once again. Amid

KirbyIG

KirbyIG

Earning season continues - EMEA brief 17th July

A sharp decline in oil prices has caused a lower Asian equity market session as energy sector is hit. Netflix share tumble 14% late last night in after hours trading on poor quarterly results, helping to pull down the S&P futures. The IMF has warned that tariffs imposed by the White House could initiate a $440bn knock to global growth and coined it the “greatest near term threat to global growth". Yesterday BoA beat earning expectations, Deutsche Bank share jumped in sur

JamesIG

JamesIG

Smooth Sailing for Brexit? - EMEA Brief 04 Oct

Theresa May declares to end austerity in the much anticipated Conservative party conference yesterday. Bloomberg has also reported this morning that the prime minister plans to rush her Brexit deal through parliament in a bid to stop the opposition voting down the treaty. The DOW hits record highs of 26,951.81 but stocks close with minimal change on the day as rising interest rates have made investors wary. The tension between the U.S. and China continues as China plans to sell $3b

GeorgeIG

GeorgeIG

Dow Pares Losses Following Worst Christmas Eve Ever - EMEA Brief 27 Dec

The three main American indices: the Dow, the S&P and the NASDAQ all rose over 4% on boxing day following the Dow’s worst Christmas eve ever. Asian markets followed the trend with the Nikkei also raising 4% Oil saw its largest daily gain since 2016 with an 8% rally. Oil related companies in Australia also climbed on the price increase. The dollar basket rose almost 0.6% in the main session but finished the day with a strong gain of 0.29% Huawei concerns deepen as

IGAaronC

IGAaronC

BoE Super Thursday - EMEA brief 2 Aug

Poor EoY results helped  pushed the FTSE lower yesterday as miners sold off, whilst the White House threat for further Chinese tariffs had a negative impact on the S&P energy and industrial sector which also suffered. In the US the Fed decided to hold rates ahead of a likely September hike. Range remains in the 1.75 to 2 per cent channel. According to a US trade representative, the refusal of China to meet US demands, along with implementation of retaliatory tariffs on US goods

JamesIG

JamesIG

Oil booms, China bust? - EMEA brief 27th June

Chinese markets hit with yuan slipping to 6 month low and stock market and leading index falling. Oil sees significant positive price action as US pressures allies on Iranian crude oil. Trump hits out at Harley Davidson motorcycles for planning a move of U.S shores on the back of trade tariffs. 'Trading the trade wars' video by IGTV and Bryan Noble is today's featured video below. Gold slips as investors turn to rival safe haven assets. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency cons

JamesIG

JamesIG

Is Gold heading down? - EMEA Brief 08 Jan

Trading in Asia was mixed as investors try to balance macro risks with optimism towards trade talks. The top performers were Japan’s Topix and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 both rose about 0.5%, while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.3%. Gold prices edged lower as the greenback’s descendant spiral seem to have stopped and amidst the possibility of a pause in further rate hikes. The February contracts hit $1291.4 around 1:10am GMT before dropping consistently during the following hours, a

IG-Andi

IG-Andi

Does volatility affect IPOs?

The music entertainment arm of Tencent, which has 800 million users across a variety of platforms in China, had originally planned to go public in the United States imminently. The IPO was initially set to launch as soon as this week but has now reportedly been delayed because of the recent global sell-off. It is not the first company to pull out or postpone an IPO in the recent weeks, and whilst Tencent have declined to comment on the decision, it’s likely to be on the back of volatility seen i

DanielaIG

DanielaIG

TRY gains on Erdogan win - EMEA brief 25th June

Global equity markets falter on trade war talk. Turkish lira gains on a presidential win for Recap Tayyip Erdogan. Oil sheds it's gains as OPEC agree on output hike. Saudi Arabia lifts the ban on female drivers which could generate up to $90bn for their economy according to Bloomberg Finance Britain sees its two year anniversary from the Brexit referendum vote. GBP down 11% in that time helping buoy the FTSE and companies who generate the majority of their revenue fro

JamesIG

JamesIG

May Battles for Brexit Agreement and Party Backing - EMEA Brief 16 Nov

Theresa May continues to back her Brexit deal despite deep divisions in her party, 16 members of which have openly called for a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister Brexit draft agreement led to several resignations including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and cabinet minister Esther McVey The GBP fell 1.7% against the dollar and 1.9% against the Euro yesterday, the lowest in over two weeks. However, this morning has seen a slight rally The Trump administration are rep

MichaelaIG

MichaelaIG

'Flash Crash' as Apple Releases Revenue Warning - EMEA Brief 03 Jan

US Index Futures fell and Asian shares toppled on Thursday after a revenue warning from Apple on its Q1 results adds to fears of slowing global growth. Dow futures point to a decline of over 400 points at the open.  The Dow is currently trading at 23015, the S&P at 2476 and the Nasdaq at 6211.  MSCI's Index of  Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan dropped 0.6%, whilst the Nikkei futures fell 2.2%.  The news from Apple sparked a 'flash crash' in the currency markets, sendi

JoeIG

JoeIG

A little bit of everything - APAC brief 15 Feb

A little bit of everything: It certainly wasn’t the highest-impact day market participants have experienced so far this year, but there was a spoonful of everything, thematically speaking that is, driving the macro-economic outlook for markets in 2019. To keep it high level, there was a series of significant growth-related data released out of all three of the world’s major economic geographies – China, Europe and China – plus a healthy smattering of geopolitics and corporate news to keep trader

MaxIG

MaxIG

Trade War Progress Ripples Through Markets - EMEA Brief 25 Feb

Developments have been made in the US-China trade war with Trump announcing ‘substantial progress’ has been made by both sides resulting in the hike on Chinese imports being delayed. Theresa May is set to meet world leaders in Egypt later today. Yesterday she announced there will be a new vote on her deal by the 12th of March but has faced criticism that this is just 17 days before the deadline. Asian markets have rallied on the back of the trade war announcement, with the Shanghai

IGAaronC

IGAaronC

ECB rate decision; Brexit no-deal probabilities; Fed anticipation - DailyFX Key Themes

The Global Importance of the ECB Rate Decision  Top event risk - both for concentrated volatility potential for its local currency and global influence via systemic means – over the coming week is hands down the ECB (European Central Bank) rate decision. Under normal circumstances, the monetary policy decision by the world’s second largest central bank is occasion for significant response from local currency and capital markets. For the Euro, the event is made far more potent at this partic

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Risk aversion intensifies; Euro and Pound fundamentals, FX measures - DFX Key Themes

Risk Trends – Monitor Liquidity Closely  Sentiment is turning increasingly septic across the financial markets. This past week certainly wasn’t the first week that signs of trouble were starting to show. However, a clear capitulation by one of the favorite benchmarks of hold-out bulls – US indices – has undermined one of the few reliable backstops left. The S&P 500 and Dow have been in retreat through much of October after hitting their respective record highs. Up until this past week,

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Over Exposed Traders, Global Taper Tantrum, Jackson Hole - DFX key themes

Positioning Extremes Grow More Extreme  There are a few undisputable and universal forces when it comes to the financial markets. One of those all-powerful winds is the concept of risk trends which is referred to by many names such as ‘risk on, risk off’ or referenced unknowingly when we blindly attribute market wide movement to animal spirits through technical cues, smart versus dumb money, panic to greed. Another of these truisms is the allocation of capital. While total wealth does grow

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Brexit speech to be announced to Parliament- EMEA Brief 15th Nov

Brexit draft has been backed up by the cabinet where Theresa May will announce a speech on Thursday to the Parliament, however, there are assumptions that this could end with a vote of no confidence  China delivering a written response to the US demands for wide-ranging trade reforms, which could potentially end the trade war between the two countries Bitcoin market capitalisation declines to its lowest level since October 2017, falling to under $100billion. Ethereum and XRP also d

KatherineIG

KatherineIG

Friday’s trade: APAC brief - 31 Dec

Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia Friday’s trade: Activity in global markets was more settled on Friday. There isn’t a consensus yet whether the trading witnessed last week was a dead-cat bounce, or a true bottom. Nevertheless, perhaps the lack of substantial news flow was enough to keep the bulls and bears from clashing heads for one day. The ASX200 impressed the bullishly inclined, albeit once again on thin trade, to add 1 per cent during the Asian session. The index managed to chop th

MaxIG

MaxIG

London's house prices - EMEA brief 21 Aug

Asian stocks generally up on hopes trade tensions may ease. Hopes of a China - US trade resolution pushed up copper, often seen as a barometer for the economic outlook, dragging behind it miners such as BHP Billiton and Glencore. Venezuela have debased their currency taking off five zeros, along with increase minimum wage by 3000% in and effort to prop up their economy. Yesterday the world trade organisation confirmed that Turkey had lodged a trade dispute against the US.

JamesIG

JamesIG

Is the sell off over? - APAC brief 15 Oct

Rout over? There are tentative signs that the global equity rout witnessed last week has subsided, at least for now. The tone shifted during Asian trade on Friday, and despite a weak day for European markets, Wall Street ended the week on a positive note, led by a bounce in the major tech stocks. It’s not to say that there isn’t the risk that this sell-off may not continue at some stage this week: in fact, futures markets are indicating a sluggish start for Asia today. More to the point, the fun

JasmineC

JasmineC

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