US NFPs: The final bastion of global economic growth is showing cracks in it walls. Arguably last week’s key-release, US Non-Farm Payrolls disappointed market participants over the weekend, printing well below expectations. It wasn’t a clear-cut, poor print. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8 per cent and wage-growth climbed to 3.4 per cent. The shocker was the headline number: forecast to reveal a jobs-gain of 180,000, the US economy only added 20,000 last month. It’s given rise to concerns t
The Euro was nearing a 21-month low yesterday as the ECB was perceived to be dovish after its speech, ahead of US jobs data to be released today. During Thursday's session the EURUSD hit $1.1176, its lowest since June 2017, as the ECB announced it had pushed back the first rate increase to at least 2020 and announced a new round of TLTRO funding for European Banks.
China has reported worse than expected trade data for the month of February. Its dollar-denominated exports fell by 20.7 per
Global tensions reach new heights as Chinese tech giant Huawei files a lawsuit against the U.S, claiming that a law that bans government agencies from buying the company's equipment is unconstitutional. This comes after Huawei's CFO also filed legal proceedings against Canada. Meanwhile, there has been a report that North Korea are moving to rebuild a nuclear missile site, following a break down last week in the summit between Trump and Kim Jong Un.
In Europe, there is the ECB's board me
Australian data draws global interest: Australia’s remarkably weak growth figures captured attention, both locally and abroad. The numbers conveyed in yesterday’s GDP were truly disappointing. Growth in the final quarter of 2018 was a paltry 0.2 per cent, and after another set of revisions to previous data, the annualized growth rate fell to 2.3 per cent. Each figure was quite an undershoot of expectations: for one, economists were expecting the quarterly number to come-in-at 0.3 per cent in sea
Trading in Asia was mixed as investors wait for more clarity on the US-China trade deal. The top performer was Shanghai Composite which was up 0.7% while Japan’s Topix was down 0.2%.
Gold prices edged lower as the greenback gained from stronger than expected economic data. Spot contracts hit $1287.34 at 5:00 am GMT, having been almost flat on the day, as can be seen on the IG Web Platform. What is the short- and mid-term fate of the gold bullion, as investors seem to be rushing to equiti
Trump is subject of large-scale investigation by the House Judiciary Committee who have sent requests for documents to 81 individuals. The investigation will look into alleged obstruction of Justice, corruption and potential abuses of power.
Despite positive outlook of US and China trade war, as parties appear closer to reaching formal agreement, U.S stocks saw a downturn after positive opening. The S&P fell 0.4% to 2,792.62, The Dow tumbled 206.67 points to 25,819.65 and the Nasdaq
American stocks fall: Wall Street looks poised to register its worst daily performance since the start of the year. The technical action was sweet: another early challenge of 2815 – the price ran slightly above that – before the bears swooned, and traders “pulled the trigger”. It’s been a day of selling since, with the S&P500 down 0.6 - 0.8 per cent, at time of writing. It’s nothing to be too concerned about, of course. This is nothing like the behaviour witness at the end of last year. It’s
Reports over the weekend have indicated that the US and China are in the later stages of trade talk discussions in a deal which could see tariffs and sanctions lifted on both sides. Donald Trump tweeted over the weekend asking China to remove all tariffs on agricultural products and that trade talks are "moving along nicely".
Asian equity markets reacted positively to the trade talk progress; the Nikkei rose 1%, whilst the Shanghai Composite increased by 2.5% and the Hang Seng jumped 1.2
Growth Takes Center Stage with Peoples’ Congress and OECD Forecasts
Most investors and traders attempt to project into the future in order to take advantage of large market moves before they are priced in and the trend potential is spent. That is perhaps the most basic precept of speculation, yet it also brings with it a range of collective cognitive biases. One such mass psychological distortion is a prioritization of the means over the ends. When looking back to the 2008 financial crisis
Are things not so bad after all? It appears there’s emerged a self-reinforcing belief that economic fundamentals aren’t as bad as once thought. There’s not a simple binary that can be reduce out of this – a clear “risk-off” or “risk-on” signal. It’s clear there remains a general sense that the global economy is entering a soft-patch. But in that, is the key: slower growth is taken as granted, however the extent of such a slowdown is ostensibly being revised. There isn’t quite (just for the momen
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 4 Mar 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neut
Chinese factory activity reduces for the third month in a row with Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI at 49.9 for February. A reading above 50 shows expansion
Rolls-Royce announces a pre-tax loss of £2.9billion for 2018, after a profit of £3.89billion in the previous year
Minister George Eustice quits the government in relation to Theresa May’s promise allowing MPs to vote on delaying Brexit, if the deal is rejected
Asia stocks slightly higher with the Hang Seng higher by 0.45
“A tale of two cities”: As far as Australian markets go, they’ll be defined, broadly-speaking, by the unfolding “tale of two cities” story in global markets. That is: the renewed optimism about the US growth outlook, versus the deterioration in global economic prospects, led by the slowdown in China’s economy. The Australian economy is heavily geared to the latter, so the hunch is our fortunes will be more greatly impacted by that variable. But it won’t be clear cut, and that’s where the uncerta
Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un summit cut down to 30 minutes with no agreement reached and the joining signing ceremony cancelled, however, both parties are “looking forward to meeting in the future”
Tensions rise as India and Pakistan confirm attacks on both sides, with India admitting to conducting strikes against a militant camp on Tuesday and Pakistan claiming to have shot down Indian jets. This has led to worries of a potential South Asia war with the US, France, Australia and China ur
Around the globe, geopolitics dominates: Political spot fires have captured the attention of market participants. From Washington, to Hanoi, to Kashmir, to Caracas, to London: the ugly machinations of power have dominated the headlines. Only, despite fleeting action, the impact to market activity has seemingly been muted. A facile logic might suggest that it is because of the geopolitical uncertainty in the world that markets have traded so dull overnight. It would be too long a bow to draw, tho
Marks & Spencer and Ocado have officially confirmed a deal whereby M&S will buy a 50% share of Ocado's retail business in a £750m home delivery deal, a huge transformational step for the iconic retailer. M&S will finance the deal by offering a £600m rights issue to shareholders and cutting dividend payouts by 40%.
President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un are set to meet today in an attempt to end North Korea's nuclear program in exchange for a relief in sanctions by
Wall Street trade: Rolling into Wall Street’s close and the S&P500 is battling it out with the 2800-mark. There’s two hours to go in trade as this is being written, and the crucial last half-hour of trade is what analysts will be breaking down today. It’s been for all intents and purposes a flat day for US stocks, but another bout of selling into the close will add credence to the idea that the buyers are thin at these levels. Market internals don’t appear too stretched for the S&P, and
Barrick Gold has announced an unsolicited plan to merge with Newmont Mining in a $19 billion all-share transaction. The merger, if successful, would create the world's largest gold mining company and could potentially re-shape the industry, along with gold prices. This comes after Barrick completed their $6.1 billion acquisition of Randgold Resources last month.
Tesla shares fell almost 5% yesterday after the SEC asked a judge to hold CEO, Elon Musk, in contempt for failing to abide by a
Trump-Tweet #1: US President Trump announced yesterday what had long been assumed: the trade-truce will be delayed, because of the “very productive talks” going on between his administration and Chinese policymakers. Understandably, the formal recognition that tariffs won’t be hiked to 25 per cent (from their current rate of 10 per cent) on $US200bn of Chinese goods stoked risk sentiment. The overall impact wasn’t quite as deep and broad on one might have hoped, however. The reasoning is logical
Pricing in Trade Wars Versus Pricing in Recession Risks
Investors are starting to see a path form for the United States and China to find a way out of their economically and financially-damaging trade war. After months of little more than a few words of optimism from only one side of the table – which was frequently reversed only days later – we are starting to see conviction from high level officials on both the American and Chinese sides. This past week was the most encouraging period for
Developments have been made in the US-China trade war with Trump announcing ‘substantial progress’ has been made by both sides resulting in the hike on Chinese imports being delayed.
Theresa May is set to meet world leaders in Egypt later today. Yesterday she announced there will be a new vote on her deal by the 12th of March but has faced criticism that this is just 17 days before the deadline.
Asian markets have rallied on the back of the trade war announcement, with the Shanghai
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 25 Feb 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral ad
Stocks finish week on solid footing: Global equities finished last week on a solid footing. Across Asia, Europe and North America, the major share indices closed both Friday and the week in the green – the only notable exception being the FTSE100, which has dipped (typically) because of a stronger Sterling. The solid run into the week’s close came courtesy of more friendly-trade-war headlines, suggesting that significant progress is being made in US-China trade negotiations. A bit of headline ju
The AUD continues to trade lower following the Chinese ban of Australian coal to its Dalian port. The ASX has benefited for the weaker exchange rate as it is trading at its highest level since October.
Trump yesterday tweeted about not inhibiting technology from coming to the US with specific references to 5G networks implemented by the Chinese firm Huawei. This suggests a softer stance towards the Chinese firm which recently saw governments stating they would no longer allow the company
Wall Street pulls back: On balance, and with Wall Street a few hours from ending its session, it's been a soft 24 hours for equities. The often heard calls of a looming "new-peak" in the market in the shorter term can be heard from some. Momentum has certainly slowed down. The S&P500 has its eyes one 2815 again - that crucial area where that index sold off on three occasions from October to December last year. It could be a slow drive to arrive at a challenge of that level now. The dovish Fe
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