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Another last minute trade war fear, fundamental trading, the dark side of central banking - DFX key themes

Is There an Effort to Keep Markets Uneasy in Trade Wars? How many times does something unusual have to occur before it is considered a planned? I have noted a number of times over the past month that some unexpected policy development was announced hours before the markets closed for the weekend. There is an unspoken commitment by central bankers and global leaders to prevent volatility in their respective financial markets. Volatility is the general definition of risk, and there is a clear

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Market sentiment - APAC brief 17 Sep

The economic calendar is relatively light, and markets await guidance from US President Trump about his intentions regarding the next round of tariffs on China. This will likely be the headline theme this week with sentiment probably swinging on how this narrative unfolds. There isn’t a terrific lead being handed to us from Wall Street, which demonstrated its fundamental resilience at the end of last week’s trading but didn’t truly threaten new all-time highs. An easing of fears around emerging

JasmineC

JasmineC

Neverending trade wars - EMEA brief 17 Sep

Whilst the Tokyo markets are on holiday, most other Asian equity markets slip on reports that Washington are continuing their tariff roll outs with a focus once more on Chinese imports. Thin liquidity due to the closed Japanese market didn't help, however moves in currencies seem minor. Dollar steady against a basket of major currencies, whilst gold nudges up. Oil prices have generally eased as the trade war row potentially distorts the demand outlook. The cryptocurrency mar

JamesIG

JamesIG

Update on trade war - APAC brief 18 Sep

US President Trump’s administration has announced the next round of tariffs on $US200bn worth of Chinese imports. The tariffs will be at a rate of 10 per cent, increasing to 25 per cent by the end of the year. The tariffs will be implemented on the 24th of September. The Chinese have stated that they will not come to the negotiating table if this second round of tariffs were implemented. We will be awaiting their response in the coming days.   The price action quoted below is evolving,

JasmineC

JasmineC

Shifting sentiment - APAC brief 19 Sep

It was a choppy day in markets as sentiment vacillated in response to the latest escalation in the US-China trade war. US President Trump made traders wait a little longer than was flagged for his administration's trade announcement, leaving it until well after Wall Street's close to drop the news. Upon the eventual release, initial reactions were unfavourable: though the $US200bn worth of tariffs would go ahead on September 24th at the rate of 10 per cent, this will be upped to 25% come the sta

JasmineC

JasmineC

Markets defy expectations - EMEA brief 19 Sep

The rebound in Chinese stock markets has extended and US bond yields are steady after the market digested the trade tariff news. MSCI Asia-Pacific index up 0.95%, whilst the Japanese Nikkei rises 1.3% A reclassification of the S&P 500 will see tech behemoth such as Facebook and Alphabet move from 'information tech' stocks into 'communication services' along with about a fifth of the index. Oil prices are seen to consolidate after rally. Cryptocurrency markets are holding

JamesIG

JamesIG

ASX yesterday - APAC brief 20 Sep

ASX yesterday: SPI futures are indicating a 5-point jump at the open for the ASX200, as traders continue to ride the wave of relief washing-over global markets. The boost in global commodity prices has underpinned the bounce in the ASX, with the materials and energy sectors leading the charge higher. Commodities markets maintained their run overnight, collectively climbing 0.76 per cent according to the Bloomberg Commodity Index, while the price of oil also threatened to challenge new highs, hol

JasmineC

JasmineC

RIO buyback and industrial metal rally - EMEA brief 20 Sep

Stocks pull back in the Asian overnight market after a tepid close of Wall Street last night. Bellwether metals copper and zinc, along with other industrial metals, continue their rally as investors and traders focus on increasing demand rather than US-Sino relations. Rio Tinto announced a $3.2bn share buyback scheme, and whilst the Anglo-Australian miner saw 3.2% gain the ASX didn’t follow suit and ended down slightly. Potential swings on the UK Rio listing on the open. In

JamesIG

JamesIG

Tensions rising - APAC brief 24 Sep

Geopolitics is already shaping-up as the major driver of financial markets this week. Data is rather light, with the US Federal Reserve’s meeting on Thursday morning (AEST) the centrepiece of an economic calendar otherwise filled with a handful of central-bank-head speeches and a meeting of the RBNZ. Hence, traders will find themselves sucked into a vacuum that can only be filled by noise surround the global economy’s biggest contemporary international-political hot-points. The break-down in tal

JasmineC

JasmineC

Oil at 4-year high - EMEA brief 24 Sep

Oil prices at 4-year high after OPEC declines to raise supply  Bank holiday in China and Japan Trade Talks: Abe's trade discussion with Trump is "constructive" in second round, China will only hold trade talks once Trump stops threats Trade wars cause the European markets to dip, Brexit is also affecting  sentiment   Dollar remains steady, whilst Indian rupee drops  Asian overnight: A largely bearish affair overnight saw losses through the Hang Seng and ASX 200,

NadelinaIG

NadelinaIG

Trade War - APAC brief 25 Sep

Trade War: Markets were made to curb their enthusiasm overnight. Trade war realities bit again and the relief rally that had defined last week’s trade dissipated. It’s not a terrible cause for alarm yet, but it highlights how difficult to predict the impact on global trade disruption happens to be. It’s a debate that challenges orthodoxy, especially given that markets have done all they can to shrug off the potential consequences new-protectionism will have on global growth. Inefficiencies aboun

JasmineC

JasmineC

Instagram founders quit Facebook - EMEA brief 25 Sep

Asian equities diverge, as Chinese shares fall and Japanese shares climb. The Euro jumped on Monday after Mario Draghi of the ECB signalled that policymakers are on track to reduce stimulus measures. He stated that the bank was confident it could maintain inflation targets over the next few years. In the EM space, India's Nifty Fifty stock market is seeing a sell off after reports that a major lender is struggling to service $12.6bn of debt. The index is down 7% since highs seen in

JamesIG

JamesIG

From Trade War to Fed - APAC brief 26 Sep

The overarching narrative in global markets is transforming from one preoccupied with the trade war, to one focused on Thursday morning’s (AEST) meeting of the US Federal Reserve. As far as developments in the trade war go, in a week bereft other major stories, traders are demonstrating tentative signs of ease on the subject. Markets are strapping themselves in for the long haul, and a begrudging acceptance that this thing will take time to play out is the prevailing mentality. With that in mind

JasmineC

JasmineC

Fed raise rates, USD steady - EMEA brief 27 Sep

Yesterday the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the 3rd time this year. Asian stocks post negative sessions following the Fed announcement being led by the technology and energy sectors. Major currency pairs hold steady whilst the USD basket, despite initial volatility, traded largely flat. Minor gains have been made this morning putting the dollar about a quarter of a percent up. Oil continues to climb as investors continue to be cautiously optimistic that the Ir

JamesIG

JamesIG

Dividend Adjustments 1 Oct - 5 Oct

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 1 Oct 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a  cash neutral ad

JamesIG

JamesIG

Markets in 4Q, two-speed trade war, US dollar drivers - DailyFX Key Themes

Markets Heading into October and the Fourth Quarter With this past Friday, we closed out week, month and quarter. The shortest measure was a period of consolidation for most assets – from the top performing US equity indices to the EURUSD’s make over break technical move to trade back into range. More impressive for its deviation from character (statistical norm) was the performance for the month of September. Historically, this period is one of significant upheaval for the capital markets

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

ASX technicals - APAC brief 01 Oct

ASX: SPI futures are indicating a 23-point drop at the open for the ASX200 this morning, effectively wiping Friday's solid gains. It comes as no surprise, really, with the lion's share of activity centring around the embattled financial sector. Bank stocks underpinned the rally on the ASX on Friday, led by CBA, in signs that the market believed the sector's recent trend lower was overdone. It may be a case of jumping the gun for traders on that one, as sentiment appears sour once more following

JasmineC

JasmineC

USMCA replaces NAFTA, CAD rises - EMEA Brief 1 Oct

The U.S. and Canada agreed to a trade deal that would preserve a three-way bloc with Mexico, setting the stage for their leaders to sign the accord by the end of November. The new deal will be called the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA. Mexican peso and Canadian dollar gains as uncertainty is lifted and greater stability takes hold of the Americas. The euro was hit by worries about a rise in Italy's fiscal deficit after the Italian government agreed to set a higher than expe

IG-Andi

IG-Andi

Relief-rallies - APAC brief 02 Oct

Deal done: Hopes were whetted during overnight trade from the news that the US, Mexico and Canada had agreed to a revised “NAFTA” agreement. To be (re)named USMCA – the US-Mexico-Canada-Agreement, a clear declaration of the Trumpian neo-Nationalist, “America First” agenda – the trade agreement reconfigures the North American trade consensus, with a skew towards US economic interests. It was apparently the Canadian’s who finally caved in to political and economic pressure on the trade pact, backi

JasmineC

JasmineC

Conservative Conference, Cable in Spotlight - EMEA Brief 02 Oct

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index pulled back last night with gambling shares having a bad time after falling revenues in Macau's casino region. US-Sino tensions rise as a US ship enters Chinese territory. Stay on top of currency markets as trade war tensions rise with #IGForexChat. The financial and healthcare sectors pushed the ASX lower whilst China remained closed for another public holiday. Bank of Australia holds cash rate at 1.5%. Japan’s Nikkei was the lone star in the Asian over

IGAaronC

IGAaronC

Macro-drivers - APAC brief 01 Oct

Macro-drivers: Global markets endured a night of mixed trading, sandwiched between several risk factors, and the waning optimism of the USMCA. US indices were generally lower, although the large-cap Dow Jones managed to register new all-time highs. European markets were held back by grief surrounding Italian fiscal sustainability, coupled with lingering concerns about the outcome of Brexit. The general sense of risk aversion led to an appreciating USD and climb in US Treasuries, pushing yields o

JasmineC

JasmineC

Aston Martin IPO at £19 - EMEA Brief 03 Oct

Aston Martin looks set to miss out on a spot in the FTSE 100 after the luxury carmaker cut the maximum valuation it is seeking in its initial public offering today, bloomberg reporting IPO price at £19. Telecoms and industrials pushed the Japanese Topix, so watch their partners on the European open, whilst miners faired well in Australia. The miner heavy JSE is likely to follow suit this morning. The Dow Jones hit a record closing high, but a drop in Facebook shares weighed on both

DanielaIG

DanielaIG

Treasury sell-off - APAC brief 04 Oct

Economic data flow has been relatively light overnight, but activity on financial markets is especially rife. It’s begun with the bond market – not in Europe this time, but in the booming United States. There doesn’t appear to be a discernible flashpoint that’s sparked this, but nevertheless and for whatever reason, bond traders have hit the sell button on US Treasuries. The phenomenon can be witnessed across the curve, with US 2 Year Treasury yields climbing to levels not seen since 2008 at 2.8

JasmineC

JasmineC

Dividend Adjustment 08 Oct - 12 Oct

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 8 Oct 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a  cash neutral ad

JamesIG

JamesIG

Trade war measures, Dollar alternatives, risk trends and yields - DFX Key Themes

It Can Be Difficult to Measure Complex Issues Like Trade Wars When dealing with a complex fundamental theme – without a binary outcome, numerous inputs and important to different investors for different reasons – it can be difficult to both analyze and trade the subject. Those are certainly criteria that would fit the ongoing trade war. It is proving exceptionally difficult to keep a clear bead on the progress of the economic conflict and the market has started to veer back into its comfort

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

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