Ending a Trade War is a Windfall for Growth?
US and Chinese trade officials met this past week to lay the groundwork for another attempt to push for a breakthrough in the superpowers’ ongoing trade war. These are lower level meetings aimed at finding concessions and terms for which Trump and Xi would eventually sign off on. With over $350 billion in goods from both countries saddled with import taxes, the economic toll the engagement is exacting is starting to show through in data. In the
USDJPY falls on the back of an intensifying trade war dispute.
‘Fang’ stocks and the heavily tech centric Nasdaq slump on the same trade war fears.
Turkish lira gains from yesterday gives further reason for overseas investment in Turkey to remain wary. USDTRY looking like it could have entered a period of consolidation after rising nearly 25% from the beginning of the year.
Oil prices rise on the Libyan oil export uncertainty, however OPEC still the overarching dampener with
US and China meeting in Beijing 7th - 8th Jan, to hold trade talks at vice ministerial level, looking to end the trade war as both economies are affected
Theresa May warns the UK of an ‘uncharted territory’ if the Brexit deal is rejected by Parliament. May announces that she has agreed to some ‘changes’ whilst talking to European leaders including specific measures for Northern Ireland, a greater role for Parliament negotiations on the next stage of the future UK-EU relation and additiona
Theresa May declares to end austerity in the much anticipated Conservative party conference yesterday. Bloomberg has also reported this morning that the prime minister plans to rush her Brexit deal through parliament in a bid to stop the opposition voting down the treaty.
The DOW hits record highs of 26,951.81 but stocks close with minimal change on the day as rising interest rates have made investors wary.
The tension between the U.S. and China continues as China plans to sell $3b
Trading in Asia was mixed as US shares stabilized overnight. In the meanwhile, the ongoing discussions between China and the US adds uncertainty. The bottom performer among major Asian indices was the Nikkei, which fell 0.45%.
Oil climbed higher amidst resuming hopes following the 1.2 million barrels per day production cut agreed by OPEC+. However, concerns that the US could much further increase its shale production and the slowing global economy could make the output cut less effective.
The US government remains in shutdown as Donald Trump addressed the nation yesterday on border security in an attempt to gain support and funding for his wall, claiming that there is a "Humanitarian and National Security crisis" in the US.
A positive session for US equities yesterday amid US-China trade discussions optimism, the S&P increased by 0.97% whilst the Nasdaq rose 1.1%. The Dow climbed 250 points, as it registers its first three day positive streak since November last year.
Oil seeing volatility ahead of a crucial meeting for OPEC on production. 'History of Crude Oil' video below.
Emerging markets aren't helped by trade war talks and slip to a 9 month low.
Trade war fallout starting to be seen with Daimler's profit warning likely to be linked to the imposed tariffs.
Relatively large macro economic day today. Give a once over to the calendar below and plan your day.
Asian Overnight: Asian markets were largely back in the red overnight, as
Asian equity markets mixed overnight on better than expected Trump trade talks, but poor US futures - notably Facebook results.
Saudi Arabia is suspending the shipment of oil via the Red Sea following an attack from Yemeni Houthi.
Gold steady as dollar eases after US and EU trade talks.
Big results day for the European market with Shell, Diageo, Nestle, Daimler, and AB InBev set to give trading updates.
The corporate focus remains crucial for US markets of late, with
Alphabet, Google's parent company, saw its share prices fall over 3% in extended trading on the back of continuing pressure on advertising prices and decreasing margins - adding to the concern over the company's periodic surges in spending. This comes despite the company beat expectations across the board in its Q4 results.
Theresa May will travel to Ireland today to try to ease concerns over a hard border situation in Ireland upon Brexit. Meanwhile, UK Steel has warned that a no-deal Br
Asian equity markets have crept slightly higher overnight following on from a firm Wall Street finish yesterday.
Apple gains 4% on good results yesterday as it races with Amazon to be the world's first trillion dollar company.
Turkey sharply increased their inflation forecast yesterday to 13.4% just a week after keeping interest rates on hold.
Bitcoin pulls back to a one week low, however still ends the month about 20% higher MoM.
Oil has pulled back after industry da
Make or Break for Brexit?
There have already been so many twists and turns in the UK’s efforts to negotiate its separation from the European Union that that investors are getting dizzy. It is troublingly difficult to gain a reliable bead on a probable outcome for this stalemate, but the lack of time and dwindling hope of an outcome that will satisfy the majority of those involved raises the threat of a ‘bad’ outcome and even worse market response. This is not one of those events where igno
China trade war escalates as new tariffs kick in: U.S. economy set to slow from here on, damaged by trade war
EM ASIA FX soften as dollar recovers after falling for six straight sessions
Wall Street sets record for longest bull run in history; Key S&P 500 index passes landmark as it goes 3,453 days without major correction
Brexit contingency plan papers released; Brexit could be good news for Britain's farmers
Australian dollar drops as three government ministers
After twenty years as a prominent business leader in the global auto industry, Carlos Ghosn resigned the top job at Renault late on Wednesday. He will be replaced as Chairmen by Michelin chief Jean-Dominique Senard and as CEO by Thierry Bollore. The news could shake the unstable Renault stock, as markets would balance their trust on the restored leadership with the implied uncertainty.
It was an exciting trading session in Singapore as Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd plunged about 83% in pr
Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia
I'm mad as hell and I am not going to take this anymore! It was this sentiment in November 2016 that raised political-renegade and anti-establishment Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump from rank-outsider and laughing-stock to President of the most of powerful country in the world. No one seemed to see it coming, and as electoral college votes were slowly counted on Election Day almost exactly 2 year ago, the world sat in awe as what was consi
Asian overnight: Sharp declines overnight are pushing the bulls out the way and the overnight session looks to be paving the way for a bearish start to the week in Europe, with circa 2% losses across Japanese and Chinese markets. The Hang Seng market was closed for a bank holiday while the Australian ASX 200 managed to limit the losses. Trade wars are back on the agenda as a key concern for markets, with a European Commission statement against car tariffs making little difference to sentiment fo
The Turkish lira crashes yesterday as the central bank decided to keep rates unchanged despite soaring inflation.
The UK housing market looks to remain stagnant as figures released by HMRC showed housing transactions slipped last month by as much as 3%. House sales were down nearly 6% YoY. Housing market data in the US set to release today, so keep an eye out at 12 midday and 3pm for mortgage apps and new home sales figures.
Banking shares continue to gain globally. Metro bank has
Trump announces that the Fed is his biggest threat as they are increasing rates ‘too quickly’
Theresa May is to visit Brussels for an EU summit today to agree on the terms of the UK-EU agreement, in order for a final decision to be made in November
Netflix quarterly results show yet another rise in new subscribers, signing up 6.96 million customers in this quarter, totaling a global amount of 137.1 million
Canada becomes the second country to legalise the use of Cannabis and
Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia
The fallout: The US mid-terms have passed, and while there were signs throughout yesterday's trade that the vote would throw up a few curly situations, the outcome fell broadly in line with market expectations. The VIX has dropped and US equities, paced by the NASDAQ, have subsequently rallied, primarily on the knowledge that everything went according to plan -- proving the notion that the biggest drag in markets all-in-all is uncertainty. There are enum
Happy New Year everyone!
Coming to Terms with a Bear Market
We have experienced a remarkable level of volatility recently, which is particularly incredible from the past few weeks considering markets were distorted by holiday trading conditions. When volatility meets thin liquidity, the results can prove explosive. That said, the intensifying fluctuation in the global financial system is not just a phenomenon that could be attributed to shallow markets as we have seen both the price-ba
The G20 summit in Argentina begins today, where discussions around trade, Brexit, and tensions between Russia and Ukraine are expected to be the dominant topics to take centre-stage.
FOMC minutes released yesterday pointed towards another rate hike in December, with concerns that trade tensions and corporate debt could impact growth.
China’s official PMI fell to 50.0 in November from 50.2 last month, adding pressure on the country to implement more economic support measures amid t
Stocks have fallen whilst the dollar remains effected on trade tensions and tariff wars. The AUD has given up gains on GDP data.
Despite being the most shorted stock on Wall Street (even ahead of Tesla), Amazon pipped the $1 trillion valuation briefly yesterday as it surpassed the $2,050.27 a share requirement.
Its expected that there will be no change in the FTSE 100 for the first time in 12 years today with no individual constituents being upgraded or downgraded.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both set new records, passing the 2900 and 8000 mark respectively for the first time in their history.
Focus shifts on talks between the US and Canada on an updated NAFTA, which could be signed in the coming days.
Canada’s Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland is now in Washington to carry out negotiations.
The previously announced deadline for Brexit talks set for the 18th of October may not be feasible, as rumors spread that it may now be postpone
Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia
Friday’s trade: Activity in global markets was more settled on Friday. There isn’t a consensus yet whether the trading witnessed last week was a dead-cat bounce, or a true bottom. Nevertheless, perhaps the lack of substantial news flow was enough to keep the bulls and bears from clashing heads for one day. The ASX200 impressed the bullishly inclined, albeit once again on thin trade, to add 1 per cent during the Asian session. The index managed to chop th
Australian equity markets gain after leadership vote ends political uncertainty with the Australian leader Malcolm Turnbull ousted by Scott Morrison.
Hang Seng equity market slips after US-China trade talks end without progress.
Saudi Arabia has denied that its $2 trillion Aramco IPO has been cancelled, and that they’re instead waiting for “appropriate circumstances and appropriate time” for the listing.
Trade concerns continue to hit gold prices however they do make gains,
Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia
Week starts soft: Global equities are down to start the new week. The stories driving the overnight moves are slightly different, but the themes remain the same: the dual risks of higher global interest rates and the prospect of slower global growth has put the bears (at least momentarily) back in control. It can feel repetitive to keep having to reel-off this story. Slower growth, higher rates, slower growth, higher rates – the message keeps echoing thr
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