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Australian Dollar Technical Outlook Ahead: AUD/USD, AUD/CAD, EUR/AUD


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AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, AUD/USD, AUD/CAD, EUR/AUD – TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

AUD/USD 4-HOUR CHART

The Australian Dollar faces its next potential opportunity to reverse the near-term downtrend against the US Dollar since the beginning of this month. AUD/USD is facing a combination of a rising trendline from August and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.7249. This is making for a critical area of support as positive RSI divergence shows that downside momentum is fading.

The latter can at times hint at a turn higher. Still, the 20- and 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA) remain downward-sloping. This follows a bearish ‘Death Cross’ from earlier this month. Clearing these lines could be a signal that the Aussie is ready to mount a recovery against the Greenback. Otherwise, clearing immediate support exposes the September low at 0.71660 towards the August low at 0.7103.

 
Australian Dollar Technical Outlook Ahead: AUD/USD, AUD/CAD, EUR/AUD

Chart Created in TradingView

AUD/CAD 4-HOUR CHART

The Australian Dollar continues to trade within the boundaries of a Descending Triangle against the Canadian Dollar. As such, AUD/CAD could remain in a consolidative state, with a slight downward bias, until a breakout is achieved. For now, the pair has recently tested the upper bound of the triangle floor, which seems to be a range between 0.9096 and 0.9141.

The 50- and 100-period SMAs seem to be offering a downward bias, with a ‘Death Cross’ having been established earlier this month. Clearing the 50-period line and 0.9190 could be a signal that prices may turn higher towards the ceiling of the triangle. Otherwise, diving deeper into the floor of the triangle will bring the pair closer to a breakout and the 100% Fibonacci extension at 0.9057.

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook Ahead: AUD/USD, AUD/CAD, EUR/AUD

Chart Created in TradingView

EUR/AUD 4-HOUR CHART

All things considered, the Australian Dollar remains on the offensive against the Euro since August. This is despite recent consolidation in EUR/AUD. The broader downtrend still remains intact, especially with a falling trendline from late August maintaining the downside focus. Still, a bullish ‘Golden Cross’ remains in play from earlier this month between the 50- and 100-period SMAs.

Immediate resistance seems to be 1.5745, where clearing the point would expose the trendline highlighted earlier. On the flip side, immediate support seems to be at 1.5444. Breaking under the latter may open the door to retesting the October low at 1.5351. Just under the latter sits the 1.5247 – 1.5287 support zone. These are current 2021 lows set earlier this year.

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook Ahead: AUD/USD, AUD/CAD, EUR/AUD

Chart Created in TradingView
 

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com
19 November 2021

To contact Daniel, use@ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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      Since breaking lower, the price has not managed to reclaim 0.9804 and it may continue to offer resistance. The 21-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA)is currently at that level, potentially adding resistance.

      Further up, the recent peak of 0.9957 might offer resistance ahead of the break point at 0.9973.

      In the last session, the price has crossed below the 10-day SMA and remains below the 21-, 55-, 100- and 200-day SMAs.

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      Chart created in TradingView 

      USD/CHF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

      USD/CHF has bounced off low made at the start of this month at 0.9470 to trade in a wide range of 0.9545 – 0.9650. These levels might provide support and resistance respectively.

      While the price is below all short-, medium- and long-term Simple Moving Averages (SMA), they have positive and negative gradients. This may suggest a lack of conviction for directional momentum that might see further range trading.

      Re-iterating this possibility is the price criss-crossing the 10-day SMA. Recent history has shown that when the price crosses the 10-day SMA, momentum in that direction continues. That is not the case over the last week.

      The recent low of 0.9470 may provide support ahead of the break point at 0.9460. On the topside, resistance might be at the break point of 0.9710 or the July peak of 0.9886.

       Chart created in TradingView

      Daniel McCarthy, Strategist Daily FX

      Source: Daily FX
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