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The Week Ahead On The Markets


AshishIG

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The Week Ahead

Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week

Week commencing 1 July

Chris Beauchamp's insight

US non-farm payrolls and the US election dominate the week ahead, though eurozone markets will be digesting the impact of the first round French elections that take place on 30 June, with the second round occurring on 7 July. Also on the calendar for the week are the monthly ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures. Meanwhile trading updates from Primark owner Associated British Foods and supermarket Sainsbury’s provide the only interest in a light week for corporate news.

                                                                                                                 Economic reports
  • Weekly view

Monday

2.45am – China Caixin mfg PMI (June): index expected to fall to 51.2 from 51.7. Markets to watch: CNH crosses

6am – Japan consumer confidence (June): 
expected to fall to 36 from 36.2. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

1pm – German Consumer Price Index (CPI) (June, preliminary): 
prices expected to rise 2.3% YoY from 2.4%, and 0.2% MoM from 0.1%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

3pm – US ISM mfg PMI (June):
 forecast to rise to 50 from the contractionary level of 48.7. Markets to watch: USD crosses


Tuesday

2.30am – RBA meeting minutes. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

10am – eurozone CPI (June): prices forecast to rise 2.4% YoY and 0.1% MoM, from 2.6% and 0.2%. Core CPI to rise 2.5% from 2.9%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

2.30pm – Fed chair Powell speaks: due to speak at ECB Forum in Sintra. Markets to watch: USD crosses


Wednesday

12.50am – Japan Tankan index quarter 2 (Q2): index to fall to 10 from 11. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

2.45am – China Caixin services PMI (June): index forecast to fall to 53.7 from 54. Markets to watch: CNH crosses

1.15pm – US ADP employment report (June):
 100K jobs expected to have been created, from 152K last month. Last month’s ADP number was wildly different to the non-farm payrolls number. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 29 June): 
claims expected to rise to 235K from 233K. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3pm – US ISM services PMI (June): 
forecast to fall to 53.5 from 53.8. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 28 June): 
previous week saw stockpiles rise by 3.6 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

7pm – FOMC minutes:
 policy was left unchanged at the last meeting. Markets to watch: USD crossers


Thursday

US Independence Day – US markets closed

UK General Election: 
polls close at 10pm, current polling gives the Labour Party a significant lead over the incumbent Conservatives. Labour highly likely to form the next government. Markets to watch: FTSE 100, FTSE 250, GBP crosses

9.30am – UK construction PMI (June): 
index forecast to fall to 51.7 from 54.7. Markets to watch: GBP crosses


Friday

1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (June): previous month’s figure smashed expectations at 272K, this month expected to see 160K jobs created. Unemployment rate to hold at 4%, and average hourly earnings expected to rise 0.2% from 0.4% MoM, and 3.6% from 4.1% YoY. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

1.30pm – Canada employment report (June): 
unemployment rate forecast to hold at 6.2%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

3pm – US Ivey PMI (June): 
index expected to rise to 53.4 from 52. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

 

Company announcements

 

Monday
1 July

Tuesday
2 July

Wednesday
3 July

Thursday

4 July

Friday
5 July

Full-year earnings

 

 

 

 

 

Half/ Quarterly earnings

 

 

 

 

 

Trading update*

Associated British Foods

Sainsbury's

Topps Tiles

 

 

 

 
 

Dividends

FTSE 100: Next

FTSE 250: Murray Int’l Trus, ICG Enterprise Trust, Bank of Georgia, Big Yellow Group, Paragon Banking, Workspace, Safestore

Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.

Index adjustments

 

Monday
1 July

Tuesday
2 July

Wednesday
3 July

Thursday
4 July

Friday
5 July

Monday
8 July

FTSE 100

 

 

0.68

 

 

 

Australia 200

 

0.1

 

 

0.1

 

Wall Street

 

 

 

14.8

3.0

 

US 500

0.02

0.16

 

0.88

0.18

0.08

Nasdaq

 

1.61

 

2.13

0.28

 

Netherlands 25

 

 

 

 

 

 

EU Stocks 50

 

 

2.9

 

 

 

China H-Shares

3.0

12.1

39.6

 

44.4

 

Singapore Blue Chip

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hong Kong HS50

6.8

18.9

74.9

 

84.1

 

South Africa 40

 

18.7

 

 

 

 

Italy 40

 

 

 

 

 

 

Japan 225

 

 

 

 

 

 

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