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Wake up and smell the coffee; Starbucks beats sales expectations - EMEA Brief 25 Jan

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GeorgeIG

  • Coffee giant Starbucks announced that same-stores sales grew by 4% in its home US market, with overall revenue also beating expectations. Speaking about the results, CEO Kevin Johnson said that "Our streamline efforts over the past six quarters are paying off by allowing us to bring more focus and discipline to our three strategic priorities".
  • Talks are continuing in the US as the Senate tries to reach an agreement to end the government shutdown, which is now in its 34th day. The White house is pushing for "large down payments" for Trump's wall, however the Senate has already rejected two proposals as a deal including wall money "is not a reasonable agreement between senators". 
  • CEO of Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, has warned that investment into the UK could take a hit due to a hard Brexit as he told the BBC that Goldman has stopped hiring in the UK over the last two years. Westminster is due to vote on the withdrawal agreement from the EU again next week.
  • Asian equities rose due to a rally in the technology sector, despite the continued uncertainty over US-China trade talks. The Hang Seng increased by 1.3%, followed by a 1% rise in both the MSCI Asia Pacific Index and Japan's Topix.
  • Brent crude futures jumped 1.2% to $61.80 followed by WTI crude which rose by 1.3% to $53.82 per barrel, as the US indicates that they may impose sanctions on Venezuela's oil exports due to the continued political turmoil within the country.
  • Gold remained steady at $1,282.08 per ounce.

UK, US and Europe: Airbus issued a warning yesterday over Brexit, the company indicated that they may shift future wing-building out of the Britain if the UK end up in a no-deal scenario. As stated above, Goldman Sachs support the view of Airbus both of whom employ a considerable number of people in the UK, with the aerospace group employing around 14,000 people alone. Despite the doom and gloom the pound is up around 1.8% since Monday, due to investors speculating that the UK will likely avoid a hard Brexit.

US markets continue to flounder, having essentially gone nowhere all week, as trade concerns remain at the forefront of investors' minds. One bright spot was the semiconductor index, which rose 5.7%, enjoying its best day since 26 December. Markets are still unable to establish a clear direction, although the lack of any renewed sell-off similar to what we saw in December is helping to calm nerves. 

The German IFO index is the one event of note today, with the week otherwise set to end on a quiet note. There seems no end in sight to the US government shutdown, with Monday's scheduled barrage of US data unlikely to take place unless a resolution is found over the weekend. 

South Africa: We expect a positive start to equity markets this morning as US Index Futures trade firmer, led by the Nasdaq, while Asian markets trade firmer led by the tech sector as well. Comments that US President Donald Trump is optimistic about the current trade negotiations have helped lift sentiment in the near term. However the US secretary of Commerce is less optimistic and has commented that US and China remain far away from reaching a trade deal. The US dollar has since weakened against a broad basket of currencies. In turn we see the rand gaining ground to trade at its best levels of the week. Tencent Holdings is up 3.27% in Asia suggestive of a strong start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Group is up 1.3% higher in Australia suggestive of a positive start for local resource counters.

 

Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT)

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Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar

9am – German Ifo business climate index (January): expected to rise to 101.5, from 101. Market to watch: EUR crosses

Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades

  • Vodafone reported a 6.8% drop in revenue for the final three months of 2018, to €11 billion, but annual underlying organic adjusted earnings growth is still expected to be around 3%.  
  • AG Barr said that it expected full-year revenue to be up 5% over the year, thanks to strong performance across all brands.
  • Indivior said that a US court had granted a temporary restraining order to prevent rival Alvogen from launching copycat drugs for its opioid addiction treatments.  

Deutsche Boerse Upgraded to Hold at Bankhaus Lampe
Iberdrola Upgraded to Buy at HSBC
NCC Upgraded to Buy at Citi
AstraZeneca Upgraded to Buy at Shore Capita

Swiss Life Downgraded to Neutral at MainFirst
Intu Downgraded to Sell at Goldman
Adecco Downgraded to Reduce at Oddo
Fevertree Drinks Cut to Hold at Jefferie

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I don't know about other people but it's certainly seems like my radar is getting hit up with companies left right and centre moving away with the whole brexit chat. Do you think this is just media attention or actually legit?

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