Jump to content

#IGEMChat - an Emerging Markets live broadcast - submit your questions

Sign in to follow this  
JamesIG

Who has an interest in Emerging Markets? How would you like the opportunity to have direct access to a panel who will be able to answer your questions directly? You can be part of the latest IG chat by leaving your EM question on social media using the #IGEMchat hashtag, or by simply leaving a comment on this blog post. Even if you don't have an account with IG you can leave your comments below! The live broadcast will be available within the dealing platform, or on this page, on Wednesday the 6th of February at 1pm GMT. We would also look to post the video after the event, as well as here

 

What will we talk about?

The discussion will cover a wide range of topics that relate to emerging market economies, including:

  • The emerging markets to watch in 2019
  • The relationship between EMs and the US dollar
  • The impact of the US-China trade war
  • How to trade EM assets

 

 

Who's on the panel?

Paul McNamara, Investment Director, GAM Investments: Paul McNamara is an Investment Director, and is the lead manager on emerging market bond and currency long only and hedge fund strategies. He joined GAM Investments following its acquisition of the fixed income and foreign exchange specialist, Augustus, in May 2009, where he started managing most of the funds he runs to date. He joined Augustus (then Julius Baer Investments Limited) in 1997 from the Export Credits Guarantee department of the UK Government Economic Service, where he was an economist. He began his career as a lecturer. Paul holds an MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics and is a CFA charterholder. He is based in London and you can get an insight into his journalistic style via Twitter or on the Financial Times.

Gavin Serkin, Managing Editor, Frontier Funds Media & Intelligence: Gavin Serkin has been a prominent writer, broadcaster and commentator on emerging markets for over two decades. His book, Frontier: Exploring the Top Ten Emerging Markets of Tomorrow (Bloomberg/Wiley) – an investment travelogue across 10 countries – was acclaimed as a “must read” by the Financial Times. Serkin’s leadership of Bloomberg’s credit markets coverage and his focus on the derivatives that triggered the global financial crisis won him the Society of American Business Editors & Writers’ Best in Business Award and the Society of Professional Journalists’ Deadline Club Award. Subsequently creating and leading Bloomberg’s emerging markets team, Serkin founded Frontier Funds Media & Intelligence in 2015 to help deepen understanding of the opportunities and challenges in developing countries through his own writing, and through constant and proactive dialogue with journalists, investors and leaders.

Sign in to follow this  


14 Comments

Recommended Comments

@JamesIG,

I have an interest in both Emerging Markets and Frontier Markets from a long term investment perspective to create wealth through capital growth. 

I do not want to trade Emerging Markets. I only want to invest in them and invest in Frontier Markets. I see Gavin Serkin is involved in Frontier Markets yet this GEM Chat does not really mention anything to do with Frontier Markets. 

Africa is the last large Frontier Market which has huge potential in the future to become an Emerging Market should it seriously reduce corruption, improve living standards, create jobs, create vibrant economies, improve education, reduce poverty, etc. 

I have invested in both Emerging Markets and Frontier Markets for many years now and believe these increase the chances of an investment portfolio performing better and more profitable over a longer period of time.

Here are some articles which may be of interest to those who are interested in Frontier Markets on the IG Community: 

Frontier markets offer high growth and low valuations

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/funds-etfs/2019/01/31/frontier-markets-offer-high-growth-and-low-valuations-but-at-a-high-risk/

'Fortune and glory, kid': the untapped potential of frontier markets

https://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/news/fortune-and-glory-kid-the-untapped-potential-of-frontier-markets/a1191427

I personally like Asian Frontier Markets and African Frontier Markets.

@JamesIG, I do not really have any questions but may well listen to the broadcast to see what if anything they suggest in relation to Frontier Markets. The one thing I do know is that they are long term investments and extremely high risk investments. I am not sure what if anything they can offer me so hence cannot really come up with any questions. I have been disappointed before on the Cryptocurrency broadcasts where they waffle and do not tell us anything some of us already so not know. I suppose these broadcasts are more for new and inexperienced traders?

Anyway please do let us know when the broadcast can be viewed as I am sure some of us will forget!

  • Like 1

Share this comment


Link to comment

Will try and remember to notify the Community @TrendFollower - may set up the banner ads now. In regards to longer term EM investing I could always ask questions relating to long term holdings in EM ETF's etc? That sort of thing? The most financially efficient way to do it etc?

Share this comment


Link to comment

EM has been smashed recently. Given the potential for a major global correction, wouldn’t EM be first to go? Longer term wouldn’t it be better to wait for the pull back then get in? 

What top 3 macro events (excluding political) do we need to monitor. Eg price of metals, specific countries GDP etc. 

Whats an EM hedge? 

Share this comment


Link to comment

@PandaFace,

Yes you are quite right. In any downturn in equities, Frontier Markets, will go down the most, followed by Emerging Markets of course. Risk On / Risk Off investor sentiment. 

I invest monthly into my investment fund portfolio which includes Emerging Market, Frontier Markets and many other areas. I use the 'Pound Cost Averaging' methodology. Where I have tweaked my investment strategy and approach based on acquired knowledge and experience is to invest lump sums only where there are major corrections, pullbacks, drops, etc. Otherwise I continue every month investing into these funds. Recessionary periods and economic instability are the best times that Emerging and Frontier Markets fall which is a good time to invest lump sums in my personal opinion.

I have been executing the above strategy for many years now and it has served me well. I am yet to come up with a better investment strategy that is more effective and profitable over a number of years than this. Yes if you were to invest lumps sums only at the lowest point and sell that the highest point then it would provide better returns which actually doing this is very difficult without a 'crystal ball'. 

  • Like 1

Share this comment


Link to comment

@JamesIG,

I am not a huge fan of ETF investing as yes it has lower costs but I would much rather pay additional fees to acquire better returns. Specialist fund managers who can stock pick the right companies within their Emerging Market funds offer the potential of increased returns. I accept during downturns ETF's in this area may go down slightly less but over the past 10 years or even 20 years have any Emerging Market or Frontier Market ETF's achieved better returns over 3, 5, 10 or 20 years than actual investment funds?

I am not aware of any but if you or the panel are in the broadcast and they can evidence this then this may be a question to ask. I would be very much interested in high performing ETF's which outperform in terms of returns against traditional investment funds.

It is not simply about lowest cost options. When buying a car it can be cheaper to purchase a Kia as it gets you from A to B. But if you want to get from A to B quicker, be more comfortable, enjoy the drive, listen to better quality sound, have heated massaging seats then you have to pay more for a better experience car. This was just a mere example so I urge any Kia owners not to take offence. 

Edited by TrendFollower

Share this comment


Link to comment

there is substantial evidence out there which shows categorically that fund managers have no advantage what-so-ever in beating the market in the long run. Active fund managers are out there for kick backs. Even buffet hates them and that says a lot!

Also, the kia analogy doesn't make any sense.

Edited by cryptotrader

Share this comment


Link to comment

@cryptotrader,

Apologies if the Kia example did not make any sense. 

I have not stated anything about evidence. 

@cryptotrader, are you able to actually demonstrate or evidence any ETF's which have outperformed traditional Emerging Market or Frontier Markets investment funds or investment trusts over the past 1 yr, 3yr, 5yr or even 10yr?

If you are then please do share with the IG Community. I am struggling to find any so I doubt there are many but if you know of any then please do share. I will keep an open mind and will personally consider investing in those ETF's which you suggest and bring to our attention. 

The point I am making is yes we all know about the 'extra' fund charges for investment funds and even investment trusts to a certain degree. Investing in hedge funds usually entail some form of performance fee. It is well documents that ETF's offer a cheaper and lower cost alternative to investing in those products. The question is on whether they offer superior performance and better returns? If they do then great they should be seriously considered over my examples. If they do not then I would rather pay extra fees and costs to obtain better returns as they is why I invest!

  • Like 1

Share this comment


Link to comment

Should EM worry about quantitative tightening and if so to what extent? Significant i would imagine? 

When US interest rates rise - are EM buggered? Can they withstand the inevitable? 

Do non conventional assets such as bitcoin have an effect on EMs? 

 

Share this comment


Link to comment

@ProjengENG,

Yes there could well be implications for both EM and FM in relation to quantitative tightening. One would expect a decrease in investment in those markets. When US interest rates rise can the US markets withstand the inevitable? I think in today's world of globalisation EM's are part of a diversified portfolio. They could see their allocation in portfolio's decline but I can only see investment increasing into EM's going forwards in the long term with a few setbacks along the way. This would be normal and expected. 

Even if EM's and FM's decline or there is a large downside then what an investment opportunity! There would be compelling reasons for investing when near a bottom for 'value investing' reasons. If this was to happen then I would like to think I am greedy enough to invest when others are panicking. 

Share this comment


Link to comment

Thanks all for your questions - they have been uploaded to our IGTV teleprompter. Don't forget this will go live today at 13.00pm GMT. 

 

Share this comment


Link to comment

@JamesIG,

Thanks for the reminder. Will have a look this evening as will not be able to see the live broadcast. I assume it will be available this evening for all to see?

Share this comment


Link to comment
28 minutes ago, TrendFollower said:

@JamesIG,

Thanks for the reminder. Will have a look this evening as will not be able to see the live broadcast. I assume it will be available this evening for all to see?

absolutely. 

Share this comment


Link to comment

so there you have it, Argentina, Turkey and Vietnam before the teacher noticed and sounded the alarm

Share this comment


Link to comment

Your content will need to be approved by a moderator

Guest
You are commenting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Add a comment...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Blog Statistics

    • Total Blogs
      3
    • Total Entries
      389
  • Our picks

    • Asia Markets Rise as Trade Talks Move to Washington - EMEA Brief 18 Feb
      Asia share markets began the week with strong gains as investors hope for both further progress at US-China trade talks in Washington this week and more stimulus from major central banks. Trump stated in a White House news conference that he would be "honored" to remove current tariffs if an agreement can be reached, and to possibly extend the March 1st deadline for a deal.
      • 0 replies
    • President’s Day: APAC brief 18 Feb
      President’s Day: It’s Trump’s market – and we are all just trading in it. It’s perhaps for some – especially market-purists – the uncomfortable reality that, as far as short-term movements and sentiment goes, US President Trump and his policy making is the greatest determinant of the current macro-economic outlook. It cuts in both directions, and certainly the US President is just as prone to deflating the market as he is to inflate it. But almost by his own admission, Trump’s modus operandi is to implement policy and spout rhetoric that feeds the US equity market. For market bulls, there is the argument that this is a welcomed dynamic: we’ve seen the exercise of the Powell-put, and perhaps now traders are witnessing the execution of something resembling a Trump-put.


      Where does Trump want the market? The risk is that President Trump’s temperament and agenda can be difficult to gauge. He giveth to the market, and he taketh, depending on his personal, political priorities. For stages of his Presidency, Trump needn’t pay close attention to the US share market: he inherited improving economic conditions, then fuelled it with massive tax cuts, and stood back to observe the records falling in US stock indices. His hawkishness on international trade and bellicosity towards domestic political wrangling brought much of it undone, as the US President turned a cyclical slowdown in China into a possible trigger for recession in Asia and Europe. The global growth outlook is as downbeat as it has been in several years, and this has manifested in market-pricing.
      • 0 replies
    • Another blow to economic growth - EMEA Brief 15 Feb
      Weak retail figures in the US have spilled over to most major stock markets, with European stocks set to open lower this morning. The 1.2% decline in retail sales for the month of December, the biggest drop in almost ten years,  have brought new fears that we are facing a global economic slowdown. The DJIA closed 104 points lower at 25,439.39, the S&P 500 closed 7 points lower at 2,745.73, whilst the Nasdaq managed to close in the positive with a gain of 6.6 points at 7,426.96.
      • 0 replies
  • Latest Forum Topics

×