Jump to content

US trade showed greater equanimity: APAC brief - 7 May

Sign in to follow this  
MaxIG

A rocky start to the week: The first day of the week’s trade can be reasonably said to have ended – and it was a tumultuous one. US President Trump’s tweeting of new tariffs on the Chinese economy sparked a level volatility not experienced in the financial markets for several months. It certainly had the effect of waking some (perhaps) complacent market participants from their slumber. And although the panic has abated somewhat, sentiment has been dented again this morning, after an announcement from Robert Lighthizer this morning that US tariffs on Chinese goods will be increased this coming Friday.

US trade showed greater equanimity: Wall Street was closed when this information became public. However, during US trade, the S&P500 progressively climbed over night, after gapping considerably at its open. On any other day, one would suggest that the action seen in US equities overnight was negative: the S&P500 is down just shy of 0.5 per cent, with market breadth a lowly 26 per cent. But considering the circumstances, along with lead handed to US traders from Europe and Asia, the price action ought to be viewed with a silver lining. The buyers in the market still seem to outweigh the sellers in the big picture, for now.

Volatility is re-awoken: Volatility has spiked and remains elevated globally. That dynamic may linger for some time yet, too. Arguably, measures of volatility were mispriced anyway, with the VIX trading as low as 11 up until only recently. It’s at 15 now, after lifting above 19 at stages yesterday. The dust will settle this morning in Asia’s trade, despite this morning’s new trade-war developments. So much is being portrayed in futures markets: our ASX200 for one, after shedding 0.82 per cent in rapid fashion in yesterday’s trade, will regain 25 points at today’s open, according to the SPI Futures contract.

1.jpg

Chinese stocks at the forefront: The real interest for macro-watchers today, though, will be how Chinese stocks perform. For reasons that need no explanation, they got whacked in Asian trade yesterday, with the CSI300 sustaining losses close to 6 per cent. The extension of this was an underperformance in risk assets everywhere. It was especially true for the Australian Dollar, which traded at an intraday low of 6963 overnight. Safe havens have naturally prospered in this environment, driving gains in high-grade government bonds, lifting currencies such as the Japanese Yen, US Dollar, and Swiss Franc.

Letting the dust settle: For the discerning punter, today’s trade should reveal far more about the truth of the impact of US President Trump’s policies. The trade-war after all disproportionately impacted Chinese and European equities when trade-tensions were last this high. On top of this, it will be curious to see how participants in Chinese markets, who’d more-or-less priced out an escalation of a trade-war, approach equities. The turnaround in trade overnight (seemingly) came consequent to news that China would still be attending trade negotiations in Washington, with interest now as to whether this news alone is enough to settle bearish sentiment in Chinese markets.

The RBA to seize focus this afternoon: All other news was practically washed out overnight by the reaction to US President Trump’s trade-war Tweets. But today, for Aussie traders, the RBA, at least momentarily, will be the centre of attention. For the first time in several years, market participants approach an RBA meeting with its outcome genuinely unknown. On the one hand, pro-cutters suggest that given the recent poor CPI data, and softer overall economic activity, the RBA should stick strictly to its mandate and cut rates. On the other hand, pro-holders possess a “wait and see view” suggesting more rate-cuts will yield diminishing (and insufficient) returns, anyway.

What are the markets expecting? Interest rate markets are very marginally pointing to a hold decision from the RBA. Around 12 basis points of cuts are baked into the market right now. It’s expected to be a relatively volatile event no matter what: either the RBA cuts, and the market must rapidly price-in the extra 13 basis points of cuts not “in the market”; or they hold, and the market must price-out the 12 basis points of cuts. If the former proves true, the AUD and bond yields will likely tumble, and stocks should get a solid lift; while if the latter proves true, the inverse ought to occur. 

2.jpg

Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia

Sign in to follow this  


0 Comments

Recommended Comments

There are no comments to display.

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Add a comment...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Blog Statistics

    • Total Blogs
      3
    • Total Entries
      555
  • Latest Forum Topics

  • Our picks

    • A night of mixed trade: APAC brief - 17 Jul
      A night of mixed trade: Overnight trade might be considered an elegant microcosm for the affairs of financial markets right now. The news flow shifted from mixed, to bearish, to bullish, then back to mixed again. The story began with a US Retail Sales data-beat, that cast doubts on the Fed’s need to cut interest rates. That doubt was compounded by more soft-ish bank earnings in the US. The mood then turned decidedly nervous on headlines US President Trump stated his willingness to increasing tariffs on China if he wanted. Before sentiment was salvaged by a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during which he re-affirmed his openness to lowering rates.

       
      • 0 replies
    • Dividend Adjustments 15 July - 22 July
      Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 15th July 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  
      • 0 replies
    • US stocks register new milestone - APAC brief - 11 Jul
      US stocks register new milestone: The S&P500 registered fresh all-time highs, and touched the 3000-mark for the first time in its history, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell, during his testimony before US Congress overnight, provided implicit assurances that the Fed is open to cutting interest rates at the end of this month. Chair Powell cited weakness in the global economy and trade-conflicts as being the primary reasons for this shift in his view – though he did stress that the fundamental outlook for the US economy is strong. Chair Powell’s testimony plays firmly into the “insurance-cut narrative” prevailing in markets currently, with a Fed-cut at the end of this month all-but-certain.

      • 0 replies
×
×