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ECB rate decision; Brexit no-deal probabilities; Fed anticipation - DailyFX Key Themes

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JohnDFX

The Global Importance of the ECB Rate Decision 

Top event risk - both for concentrated volatility potential for its local currency and global influence via systemic means – over the coming week is hands down the ECB (European Central Bank) rate decision. Under normal circumstances, the monetary policy decision by the world’s second largest central bank is occasion for significant response from local currency and capital markets. For the Euro, the event is made far more potent at this particular meeting owing to the market’s aggressive speculation for a further infusion of support to their – and the economy’s – cause. Looking to overnight swaps, market participants are certain of a further lowering to the benchmark rate that is already set at -0.40 percent. Further, the group is expected to restore quantitative easing (QE) having only ended the previous effort back in December and failing to wean appetite for extreme accommodation with another TLTRO (targeted long-term refinancing operation). This would represent a virtual ‘all-in’ upgrade to an already-extreme support effort and is likely aimed at surpassing the market’s expectations. Yet, it would be difficult to live up to such lofty forecasts – much less best them. The Euro has already pushed to a more-than two-year low against the US Dollar so is already pricing in a substantial dovish view. Yet, beyond besting or falling short of the market’s expectations for the Euro’s purposes, we start to get into potentially systemic matters.

If the central bank does depress the accelerator fully, outgoing President Mario Draghi will leave incoming Christine Lagarde with few reasonable options left to navigate any further tumultuous waters that occur early in her term. Just this past week, she was attempting to sooth German officials skeptical of unorthodox policies such as negative rates saying she would investigate the costs more thoroughly alongside the presumed benefits. She remains a firm advocate of easy policy however. That said, regardless of her commitment to carrying on Draghi’s regime, the question of the market’s willingness to respond to the effort is far more important to the health and stability of markets moving forward. We are already seeing the ‘effectiveness’ of central banks’ efforts wane in more recent iterations, a dangerous scenario if we ever genuinely need their (the ECB and its peers) support to stave off a crisis. If the ECB earns its near-term relief, all will not be immediately fine. If the markets respond favorably, economists adjust for the ‘stimulus effect’ and the Euro drops; it will instantly catch the attention of US President Donald Trump. He already uses the European authority’s policy as evidence of what he considers manipulation to afford an artificial advantage in his regular badgering of the Federal Reserve. Chairman Powell and crew have weathered the accusations thus far, but the President is being pushed by the pressure of an economy weighed by trade wars. If the Fed doesn’t indicate its willingness to follow the ECB down, he is likely to take measures into his own hands to – perhaps inadvertently – start a currency war. 

Brexit: All We Need Is More Time for a Pound Rebound 

The British Pound mounted an impressive rally this past week – and with no technical time to spare. GBPUSD through Tuesday dove to levels not seen since the post-Brexit flash crash back in October 2016. In fact, sliding any further would have put this benchmark currency cross back to its lowest levels in over three decades – more than just a simple drift in contrasting value and much more a statement on the troubled view of the British currency. Yet, just as the markets were nervously eying the exchange rate for perspective on the British currency, a short-term relief rally kicked in Wednesday. Part of this pair’s performance has to be assigned to the Greenback which started to slip across the board. Nonetheless, the Pound was rallying universally and it had a very clear fundamental cue with which to anchor its performance.  Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been maneuvering these past weeks to ensure a ‘no deal’ option on Brexit be kept firmly in the mix in a bid to keep pressure on the EU to force concessions – if at all possible. Yet, his move to suspend Parliament for weeks before the official Brexit deadline on October 31st spurred new problems when his support from a razor thin majority in Parliament faltered. 

Now, the two institutions – government and parliament – are jostling for position in chess-like moves and countermoves. There is still significant risk that the country leaves the Union without an agreement to offer some economic and financial access – especially with weekend reports that France has no interest in offer an extension to negotiations even if the UK requests as they believe there is little sign they will work towards a genuine compromise. That said, merely tempering the threat of high probability ‘no deal’ outcome can afford significant lift for the Sterling. While it is possible the currency can always drop lower given its own situation and the context of its global counterparts, it is generally pricing in the ‘worst case scenario’ of the known circumstances at present. While buying time would not reset its long-term course, it can bleed some of the aggressive, short-term (short side) speculation and inspire more of the optimists to be opportunists. 

What Matters More to Fed: Consumer Inflation, Sentiment or the ECB 

While this week will be topped by the ECB’s monetary policy decisions, the looming event scheduled for Wednesday the 18th will pull at global investors’ fears and anticipation. There is even more riding on the US central bank’s policy choices. Beyond the practical consideration that it is directing the world’s largest economy and financial system, Jerome Powell and crew are directing the pace of retreat from the most progressive effort to ‘normalize’ extreme policy among the major central banks. This reflects how far the world’s monetary policy authorities are willing to go in a bid to prop growth, which will contribute to risk trends; but it will also set the baseline for effectiveness/ineffectiveness of their collective efforts. With 200 basis points available to ease and a reduced balance sheet that can carry the sentiment-based impact of a rebound, there is reason to watch even the fine tune adjustments in expectations. With that attention, there will be considerable weight afforded to the interim event risk that could possibly alter the ultimate decision a week forward. Through this week, the most traditional measure to keep tabs on will be the market’s favorite inflation indicator, the consumer price index or CPI. If there is an allowance for the group to resort to policy that under normal circumstances would be labeled ‘extreme’, they would have to find it in the price measures of their dual mandate as employment trends are on a decade-long expansion. As it stands, the Chairman and minutes have projected inflation pressures to reach target levels through the medium-term – which would suggest they do not intend to meet the market’s (and Trump’s) demands for aggressive easing. 

Another tangible event that isn’t part of the Fed’s official policy criteria but is of significance to the group’s forecasts and market’s divergent expectations is the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence survey. When the central bank says it is evaluating trends in employment and price growth through ‘the medium-term’, they are projecting out over the next two years on average. Of course, a lot goes into the change in these measures over that period, but few things are as informative of the outlook as sentiment surveys that state intention to alter course. Given the consumer is the backbone of the US economy and this particular survey has so many beneficial components – including measures like expectations for market performance – there is considerable influence in this indicator. Intention to reduce consumption, lower inflation expectations and fear of a financial retrenchment could sway the Fed to act ‘preemptively’. Now, even more untraditional but what may ultimately be the most important driver of US monetary policy moving forward is the actions of the ECB. Officially, the US central bank (and most of its largest counterparts) do not take into consideration external factors when making their own policies. In practice, the disparity in course of these major banks can lead to issues such as capital diversion. If the European authority cuts rates deeper into negative territory and restarts QE, further charge in the Dollar and market demand for US support to balance out the global spectrum could raise pricing risk to levels that trigger volatility and speculative fallout if the Fed doesn’t act. 
 

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