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UK GDP today - EMEA brief 10 August

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JamesIG

  • Asian markets move lower on the rather tedious reiteration of trade war fears.
  • Huge volatility spike sees Turkish Lira dropping 13.5% against the USD.
  • Oil prices edged up on worries that reimposed U.S. sanctions against Iran would tighten supplies.
  • UK growth (Q2), trade (June) and production data (June) later today.

Asian overnight: Asian markets followed their US counterparts lower, as trade fears continue to impact market sentiment. Japanese markets where the biggest loser over the session, with a big outperformance in the Q2 GDP figure (0.5% from -0.2%) paving the way for a push higher for the Yen. Elsewhere, the Russian ruble and Turkish lira continue to fall amid strained relationships with the US and political concerns.

UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, GDP remains a focus, with the UK figures to watch out for. Given the new monthly growth readings, watch for that figure alongside the wider quarterly one. With UK manufacturing production, trade balance, and industrial production also being released, it is likely that the pound is set for a volatile morning. In the US session, keep an eye out for the Canadian jobs data alongside the US CPI inflation reading.

Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

2018-08-10 08_17_36-Forex Economic Calendar.png

Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar

9.30am – UK growth (Q2), trade (June) and production data (June): Monthly GDP reading expected to rise from 0.2% to 0.3%, YoY GDP 1.3% expected from 1.2%, and MoM expected to rise from 0.2% to 0.4%. Balance of trade expected to see a larger deficit of -£3 billion, from -£2.79 billion. Manufacturing production expected to fall from 0.4% to 0.3% (MoM), while industrial production is expected to rise from -0.4% to 0.4%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses, UK indices

1.30pm – Canadian jobs report (July): Employment change expected to fall from 31.8k to 24k. Unemployment exected to fall to 5.8% from 6%. Market to watch: CAD crosses

1.30pm – US CPI (July): YoY expected to remain flat at 2.9%, while MoM figure is expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.2%. Market to watch: USD crosses

Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades

  • SSP has launched a $175 million US bond offer to pay down existing debt. Private placement notes will be issued in October in five series, maturing between 2025 and 2028. 
  • Moneysupermarket.com has completed the acquisition of Decision Technologies, a home communications and mobile phone comparison business. 

BMW upgraded to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
Paddy Power Betfair upgraded to neutral at Credit Suisse
Renault upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley
Telefonica upgraded to buy at Jefferies

Bakkafrost downgraded to hold at SEB Equities
Basic-Fit cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
Rolls-Royce cut to underweight at JPMorgan
Hill & Smith downgraded to hold at Berenberg

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