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China trade war escalates - EMEA brief 23 Aug

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  • China trade war escalates as new tariffs kick in: U.S. economy set to slow from here on, damaged by trade war
  • EM ASIA FX soften as dollar recovers after falling for six straight sessions
  • Wall Street sets record for longest bull run in history; Key S&P 500 index passes landmark as it goes 3,453 days without major correction
  • Brexit contingency plan papers released; Brexit could be good news for Britain's farmers
  • Australian dollar drops as three government ministers quit
  • Crude oil sees it's largest gains in two months on varying signs of ebbing supply

Asian overnight:  Another indecisive session overnight has seen weakness in Hong Kong and Australian stocks counteract the already unimpressive gains seen in Japan and China. The Australian dollar came under pressure after three main cabinet members resigned to switch allegiance to Peter Dutton, who aims to become the next Liberal leader and ultimately the next Prime Minister. The dollar also strengthened overnight following an optimistic outlook from the Fed, with yesterday’s minutes pointing towards a rate hike at the next meeting despite concerns over trade tensions. Trade talks in China continue into their second day today, yet with neither side likely to cede much ground, it seems likely we will see a positive resolution. 

UK, US and Europe:  A very busy economic calendar sees the day kick off with a host of eurozone PMI readings from the likes of the French, German, and eurozone services and manufacturing sectors. This does carry into the afternoon, with the US manufacturing and services PMI surveys due for release. Also keep an eye out for the eurozone minutes, alongside consumer confidence data, which will both bring expectations of heightened volatility for the euro.

Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

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Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar

8am – 9am – French, German, eurozone mfg & services PMI (August, flash): German mfg PMI to fall to 55.5 from 56.9, while eurozone mfg PMI to fall to 54.6 from 55.1. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

12.30pm – ECB meeting minutes: these could provide some support to a flagging euro if they reinforce the image of a bank moving towards tightening policy in the longer term. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 18 August): claims expected to rise to 217K from 212K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

2.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (August, flash): mfg PMI to fall to 55.2 from 55.3, while services PMI to fall to 54 from 56. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – US new home sales (July): forecast to rise 0.6% MoM from -5.3%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (August, flash): forecast to fall to -0.7 from -0.6. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
 

Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades

  • CRH said that first-half profits rose 4.6% to €497 million, while sales were 1% higher at €11.9 billion. Performance was affected by weather disruption in Europe and North America, and currency headwinds. The dividend was raised by 2.1% to 19.6 cents per share. 
  • Premier Oil reported pre-tax profit of $98.4 million for the first half, up from $40.7 a year earlier, while cash flow fell to $276.6 million from $282.7 million. Net debt was cut to $2.65 billion from $2.72 billion a year earlier. 
  • OneSavings Bank has upgraded tis growth forecast thanks to a good start to 2018. Pre-tax profit in the first half rose 17% to £91.8 million, with the loan book up 11% to £8.1 billion. Growth is now expected to be in the ‘high teens’, from a previous ‘mid-teens’ forecast.  

BNP Paribas upgraded to buy at Bankhaus Lampe
Masmovil upgraded to overweight at Barclays
Sunrise upgraded to overweight at Barclays
Zooplus upgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux

Deutsche Euroshop cut to hold at Berenberg
Terveystalo cut to underweight at Morgan Stanley

 

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Thank's @NadelinaIG for the inclusion of the video interview with Prof. Steve Hanke on the Venezuelan currency crisis. I haven't laughed so much in ages, a complete take down of Socialism and the Maduro government, plus an interesting aside on gold and oil at the end. 

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It’s the Summer Bank Holiday in the UK on the 27th August, so I just wanted to lay out the changes to our trading schedule as below (all times in UK time).

Monday 27th August

  • UK equities, index futures, soft commodities and interest rates will be closed.
  • We will be making an out-of-hours price on the FTSE 100 until futures re-open at 01.00 on Tuesday.
  • Brent Crude and London Gas Oil will be open as normal.
  • New York Cocoa, Coffee and Sugar contracts have a late open at 12.30.

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Doesn’t answer the question tho on what’s going to happen to the wider business landscape tho in the first half of the interview. 

 

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Hi Guest Phil, I got the impression Prof Hanke thought that the issuing of the new Bolivar Soberano would only make a small difference in the very short-term and that the general abandonment of the local currency in favour of US dollars would continue, presumably until the collapse of the regime. Also, the degradation of the country's oil industry was so advanced that there was no hope of it sustaining it'self let alone digging the country out of it's financial predicament.

 

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