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Emerging market FX selloff likely to continue for USD/ZAR, USD/RUB and USD/MXN


MongiIG

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Emerging market currencies look likely to reverse recent gains before long, with long-term USD/RUB, USD/MXN and USD/ZAR uptrends expected to return before long.

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 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 26 August 2021. IG

Emerging currencies at risk despite recent rise in yields

Emerging market currencies provide a key area for traders to utilize throughout periods of boom and bust. Typically, we see emerging currencies lose ground against the dollar over time, with those periods where that trend reverses largely coming as economic fears are allayed and treasury yields rebound.

That can be seen below, where falling yields are correlated with three inverted EM FX pairs (USD/RUB, USD/MXN, USD/ZAR). This negative correlation means that as long as yields continue to fall, we are likely to see further downside for emerging market currencies against the greenback.

With that in mind, this recent counter-trend move looks likely to continue if the outlook becomes clearly positive. However, any ongoing fears around the Delta variant or the recovery could seem FX hit once again.

EM FX chartSource: TradingView

USD/ZAR

USD/ZAR provides the first chart of note, with price having dropped perfectly into the 76.4% Fibonacci support level.

With the stochastic breaking out of the oversold territory, there is a clear signal that the bulls are coming back into dominance once again here. As such, another move higher looks likely here, but ultimately the bullish trend holds unless R11.51 low is taken out.

USD/ZAR monthly chartSource: ProRealTime

 

The daily chart highlights how we have broken from the downtrend established after the initial pandemic surge for this pair.

That push through trendline resistance does provide an initial signal that the bulls might be back in charge, yet a move through R15.57 would bring greater confidence that this downtrend is over.

USD/ZAR daily chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/RUB consolidates within long-term uptrend

A similar story for USD/RUB, although the uptrend is somewhat less convincing. Nonetheless, we have seen price fall back towards the 76.4% Fibonacci support level at ₽71.08.

We have typically seen this market consolidate and drift lower for extended period of time, only to surge higher every once in a while. With that in mind, it looks likely we are in that latest consolidation phase, with another break higher expected to come down the line. A break below ₽68.03 would bring a more signal that we are due a more prologued period of downside.

USD/RUB monthly chartSource: ProRealTime

 

This pair is clearly still well within a consolidation phase, although a break up through the ₽75.35 level would bring greater confidence that we are starting to build a more bullish move.

USD/RUB monthly chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/MXN finding support on Fibonacci level

Once again we are looking at the 76.4% Fibonacci support level to come into play here for USD/MXN. The long-term uptrend provides a signal of further gains to come, with the recent inability to break below the MX$19.42.

Fibonacci support level highlighting the potential for another leg higher before too long. Much like USD/ZAR, we are looking at another break out of the oversold territory for the stochastic, with momentum clearly reversing in favour of the bulls.

The past three such signals have all provided strong long-term buying opportunities for the pair. A break below MX$17.45 would be required to negate that bullish long-term trend.

USD/MXN monthly chartSource: ProRealTime

 

That recent basing effect can be seen clearly on the daily chart, with price failing to break below MX$19.54 bringing some initial confidence for bulls.

However, a push through the MX$20.75 level would be required to start building a more confident view that the next leg higher is taking shape.

USD/MXN daily chartSource: ProRealTime

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