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  4. Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia A (relatively) settled session: It’s been a soft day for global equities. With almost exactly two-hours to go in the US session at time of writing, another modest rally has apparently been faded by traders. Indications are that Wall Street will close lower. If proven true, this will punctuate a mixed day for Europe, and quite a solid day for the Asian region. The former found little impetus to be bid higher, while the Asian session showed the ebullience of diminishing trade tensions. Scanning the major indices, volumes were up compared to their 100-day average, however were slightly down when compared to their 10-day and 20-day average. It reveals a market that is more settled than what it has otherwise been seen during the global share-market correction – but remains vigilant and prepared to turn at the sight of bad-news. Global growth: Given price action in last night’s trade was relatively more subdued, traders and analysts seemed able to take the clearer air to reflect on current market drivers. The theme that’s popped up consistently in the last 24 hours can be crudely articulated as “downside risks to growth”. It was a theme adopted by ECB President Mario Draghi during his press conference following last night’s ECB Meeting; and it was also referenced by PBOC last night in relation to China’s economic fortunes. It bears repeating: October, November and December in markets have been characterizes by bearishness, of course. However, the causes throughout this period have shifted. What was initially a sell-off catalysed by fears regarding higher US interest rates has transformed into one driven by fears about slower global economic growth. ECB meeting: Last night’s headline event captures this well. The ECB met and broadly met traders’ expectations: rates were of course kept on hold, and the central bank’s QE program will come to an end. As always, the commentary and press conference were where the interest lay, and ECB President Draghi delivered a cautious but stark message. The balance of risks to the EU economy have shifted to the downside. The ECB lowered its forecasts for growth and inflation, even further below what could be considered objectively strong figures. Overall, President Draghi was judged as quite dovish about the prospects for European monetary policy. Though it was not stated explicitly – central bankers rarely communicate in such a way – the subtext of the speech strongly implied that any true policy normalization from the ECB is some way off. Whatever it takes: It’s a fascinating conundrum for the ECB. After a decade of experimental monetary policy, on balance the central bank’s greatest endeavours haven’t seemed to work. President Draghi’s “whatever it takes” attitude has supported markets, but evidence for his success is scant. The counter-argument to this pessimistic take on the Eurozone and ECB always seems to go something like “yes, things aren’t good, but imagine how bad things could have if the ECB hadn’t done what it did!”. It could be a valid point – one better for the historians to take care of somewhere down the line. However, the situation is poised to be this: the global economy will eventually experience a recession, and the ECB will more-likely-than-not be at effectively negative interest rates. The whole affair engenders very little hope or confidence in the future of the European economy. The news flow: That reality considered, traders tipped their hat and gave a sympathetic nod to the ECB after its meeting, and more-or-less moved on. There wasn’t much bullishness to be found in markets last night, however it wasn’t a risk-off night either. A lot of commentary overnight has pointed to the trade-war being behind the session’s softness. China has reportedly detained another Canadian citizen on national security grounds, presumably in retaliation to Canada’s arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou. While on the other side of the world, members of the Trump administration declared that China ought to concede more to resolve the trade dispute. Overall, there was little substantial or game-changing revealed to markets – mostly just noise relating to the familiar and ongoing concerns that have been long-rattling markets. Today’s big Chinese data dump will be now be the one to watch. Not risk-off; but not risk-on: The price action communicated this reasonably well. US Treasury yields have stayed (fairly) still: the US 10 Year note held at 2.90 per cent, and the US 2 Year note dipped 1 point to 2.75 per cent, widening the spread there to 15 points. Wall Street is heading for a flat day, though with an hour to go in trade, the Dow Jones is a skerrick higher. The DAX and FTSE were both down 0.04 per cent. The greenback pushed-higher, mostly due to a weaker EUR, which fell to 1.1364. The Pound is up a skerrick, while the Yen, reflecting the day’s sentiment, fell slightly, just like gold, which is holding support above $US1240. The Australian Dollar is practically trading sideways at 0.7220. Credit spreads narrowed on the perception of diminished risk. And in commodities markets, copper is flat, and oil and iron ore rallied. ASX200 today: This is the context for Australian trading today, and with all of that digested, SPI futures are telling us we are set for a 14-point drop at the open for the ASX200. The ASX took the momentum generated by the improved sentiment about global growth yesterday, with the cyclical mining, consumer discretionary and industrial sectors some of the best performing. The rally lost legs throughout the day, as traders seemingly opted to fade the run once again. Volumes were high, but breadth was uninspiring. The foundations are set for another lower-high for the ASX200 index, reinforcing the notion the market is in some bearish down trend. Some contrary evidence suggests the worst is behind us: the RSI is still showing bullish divergence, and downside momentum is moderating. As it currently stands, a new low, as far above 5510 as possible, and/or a rally through resistance at 5705, is broadly the challenge the market needs to overcome to demonstrate evidence of a possible bullish turn in this market.
  5. Caseynotes

    Christmas Rally 2018 thread WIP

    Can't see what the problem is here, @psycho has researched a topic the results of which back up previous stats and for some strange reason you guys are calling it a 'myth' 👹. Recorded historical data is not mythological. Or are you saying the math is mythical? Are the gains stunning - no though probably averaging around 2% since 2000 is not bad, would you bet the farm on it - no, is it guaranteed - of course not, but historically the math points to a generously positive probability. In refutation please don't forget to show your working out.
  6. lgstubbings

    Christmas Rally 2018 thread WIP

    Hows this for the Santa rally.
  7. TrendFollower

    Technical Trading is not Trend Following

    Yes and to trade using the theory behind the 'hard right edge' would be extremely difficult. Hindsight is a wonderful thing! All we can do is merely identify indicators based on trends and patterns which we can use to make a decision on whether to enter a trade on the 'long' side or 'short' side or even not to enter at all. We can let the strength of the trend, volume, price action and momentum assist us to make an informed decision. It can still be the wrong decision based on hindsight but this is where the element of risk comes into trading. It is not easy and is extremely difficult and anyone who suggests otherwise is either lying or does not know what they are talking about.
  8. @LeoTrader, Yes, quite right. You make a very important point that a lot of traders do not realise about IG paying interest credit on short positions that are held overnight. This is why shorting can be lucrative if you identify and trade the right shorting opportunity. Excellent point. Not only do you profit from the trade but receive interest credit so seriously worth considering. A lot of traders on IG Community do not seem to discuss shorting much at all. They identify reasons using technical analysis, charts, arrows and everything under the sun as to why not to enter a long trade but they do not seem to discuss shorting that very trade.
  9. Im looking for an accurate section of technical and fundamental analysis that I could rely in my tradings.
  10. TrendFollower

    Account activation

    @Sxoiu, I may be wrong but sometimes in these instances IG may be conducting some checks before activating. Due to Money Laundering Regulations that it has to adhere to, IG has a responsibility and obligation to conduct necessary checks. May I advise that you contact IG Customer Services and simply ask them when your account will be activated and what the reason for any delay is? They should be able to provide you with an explanation which is not a best 'guesstimate' like what I have just provided. 🤔
  11. TrendFollower

    Christmas Rally 2018 thread WIP

    @Mercury, Quite agree with your last sentence. Trade the price action and forget about the 'market noise' which is what such sayings are.
  12. Mercury

    Christmas Rally 2018 thread WIP

    Yeah ok @psycho, probably a good move. I could probably find other time periods that had an even better result, especially in the raging bull market we have seen since Bretton Woods. If you go back further than that things are different. Maybe there is an element of self fulfilling prophesy about the Santa Clause rally. Maybe it wont exist during the coming Bear market. I don't ever hear anyone talking about the Chinese New Year Rally, and why would the Chinese or Japanese have a Santa Claus rally..? The key point is whether the Santa Claus phenomenon (if it exists) is at all relevant. Well you can't trade it without signals so not relevant at all is my opinion. And this year we do not look like we are going to get one but if we do it will be a relief rally at best (which is in the so-what category). So ok for fun we discuss it but in reality it falls into the same category as received wisdom like "sell in May and go away". A pure distraction at best and a false life line to those holding losing positions at worst. Trade the price action, forget about the market myths.
  13. My account is not activate till time. How can i activate it.
  14. I have found , alas, that the only drawings that are transferable between time frames with any accuracy are the horizontal ones
  15. Thank you for your suggestion @GavinB . Unfortunately it doesn't help as there are other drawings on the chart I want to see
  16. Caseynotes

    Online Platform: bar length

    Hi @PhiloBeddoe, Yes, if you click on the 3 dots tab then 'show' > HLOC then hover the curser over the bar.
  17. Regarding overnight funding charges, there are two sides to the coin. A few weeks ago I had DFB positions on Silver and EUR/USD which both ran for weeks. Because I was short, I received the daily funding as a credit to my account each night. If I had been long then I would've been debited, but then I wouldn't have traded the spot price for positions open that long. Of course, not all markets pay out a funding credit for trading in a particular direction, so it's important to check the rates first. Exploiting this to your advantage is something all traders should consider when planning to hold a trade overnight, just as @TrendFollower says:
  18. Is there a way i can tell the exact level the wick of a (5 minute) bar touched other than zooming in and guestimating where it ended?
  19. Hey @psycho, I think drawings are not per interval. However, you can toggle drawings visibility in the "Show" menu. Does that help?
  20. UPDATE: All push notifications are working again for me. If this was due to staff intervention then thank you. I hope a permanent fix comes soon.
  21. Turnip230248

    Crude Oil (WTI)

    What I look at - the five minute chart for small ranges AND 1 Minute chart for triggering trades. Keeps it simple.
  22. Turnip230248

    Ichimoku Trading

    Dax today One loss one win
  23. DanielaIG

    Abbreviation "CR" meaning

    Hi Sudhanshu, CR means Controlled Risk. When a stock is listed as No CR it means that you are no able to place a guaranteed stop when opening a position. It is usually due to low liquidity, so we cannot guarantee our clients a specific price as it is too risky. I hope you find this useful. Regards
  24. Turnip230248

    Scalping

    Scalping dax -one loser one win
  25. Balance of probabilities -no one knows the future at the hard right edge
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