Jump to content

Is it really just like last October?


Recommended Posts

S&P500 is now at levels last seen October 2019....a mere 6 months ago. When things were apparently very much like now. Totally similar, in fact.  Save 26 million more unemployed, govt debt that has gone into the stratosphere, whole market sectors on their knees with no sign of rapid recovery and a highly contagious, potentially deadly virus that still infects the planet. Apart from that, everything is the same and the S&P practically mirrors the economic reality and is definitely not an over exaggeration or bubble, plus the virus has gone and will not come back until after the election when it will be proven, beyond any reasonable doubt, to be some else's fault. 

So is it really just like last October? Are we due another melt up of equity and commodity values? Or are equities already over valued as things stand? Has unlimited QE simply funneled vast amounts of tax payer cash into the hands of those who know best how to profit from such federal and government largesse at the expense of the real? If the S&P were to be believed everything is just like October 2019. This is not the case surely? Is this another bubble ready to pop? Looks like it. Beware of ever increasing values of equities, they no longer reflect the reality of life lived by the majority, there is an imbalance. As usual, the markets are overcompensating. The mechanisms being used to fix current problems are only building greater ones down the road, at the expense of the taxpayer, naturally. The distribution between those that have and those that don't have enough will only widen, causing real future problems, not to mention ethical contradictions and matters of jurisprudence.

It is all too surreal and surely not at all like last October, no matter what the S&P infers. (That he garden is rosy once more).

Link to comment

As an addendum, one only has to look to China and see their reality on the ground. China is currently back to "normal", it is on a 3 day week (split shifts to avoid any rush hour), shops are open but sales are down considerably, bars are open but empty, flights are still grounded and the state and people are still very nervous of a second wave of infections coming from without.  Savings are down and spending is more parsimonious as folk suit their budget to new incomes.  In short not the "V" shaped recovery many expect or predict. 

Naturally, it will be different in the West, won't it?

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
49 minutes ago, 786Trader said:

Beware of ever increasing values of equities, they no longer reflect the reality of life lived by the majority, there is an imbalance.

Point being, company valuations are based on P/E, which have become less and less reliant on the E for earnings. It is as if the "E" is being viewed with binoculars rather than a microscope. 

  • Thought provoking 1
Link to comment

I believe in value investment.

The temporary up or down is caused by trader (Or called Speculator by Ben Graham)

At some point, stock price should return to the real value of the market, and I truly believe there will be a huge crash coming very soon, and the crash would probably deeper than what it should be, which will be caused by the same reason of the current situation. Traders in the market always overreacting.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Prepare for market shifts with the upcoming US core PCE data release. Understand its effects on FX markets, the US dollar, and major pairs through our in-depth analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and gold.   Source: Bloomberg   Forex Commodities United States dollar Gold EUR/USD GBP/USD Written by: Diego Colman | Market Analyst, New York   Publication date: Friday 23 February 2024 06:50 Market participants will be on tenterhooks in the coming days ahead of a high-impact item on the US calendar next week: the release of core PCE data – the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge. This crucial event on the agenda is likely to stir volatility within the FX space, so the retail crowd needs to be vigilant and ready for unpredictable price swings. In terms of consensus estimates, core PCE is projected to have risen by 0.4% in January, bringing the annual rate down to 2.7% from 2.9% previously, a small but welcome step in the right direction. Traders, however, shouldn't be taken aback if the numbers surprise to the upside, echoing the patterns and trends seen in last week's CPI and PPI reports for the same period. Interest rates and inflation: steering the course of the US dollar and commodities Sticky price pressures in the economy, together with solid job creation and hot wage growth, could compel the Fed to delay the start of its easing cycle to the second half of the year, resulting in only modest adjustments once the process gets underway. Such a scenario could push interest rate expectations in a more hawkish direction compared to their current status. Higher interest rates for longer could mean upward pressure on US Treasury yields over the coming weeks – an outcome poised to benefit the US dollar and reinforce its bullish momentum seen in 2024. With the greenback biased to the upside, pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD will face difficulties in maintaining positive performance in the short term. Gold prices could also struggle. Fundamentals aside now, the subsequent section of this article will revolve around examining the technical outlook for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and gold prices. Here, we'll explore critical price thresholds that traders need to keep on their radar to prepare potential strategies in the upcoming sessions. EUR/USD technical analysis EUR/USD has regained lost ground this week but has yet to fully recover its 200-day simple moving average, currently at 1.0830. Traders should keep a close eye on this indicator in the coming days, bearing in mind that a push above it could give way to a rally towards 1.0890 and possibly even 1.0950. On the flip side, if prices get rejected to the downside from current levels and begin a rapid descent, technical support emerges at 1.0725. followed by 1.0700. From this point onwards, additional weakness may prompt market focus to shift towards 1.0650. EUR/USD daily chart   Source: TradingView GBP/USD technical analysis GBP/USD consolidated to the upside on Thursday but fell short of clearing its 50-day simple moving average at 1.2680. Bulls may find it challenging to surpass this technical hurdle; however, a breakout could result in a move toward trendline resistance at 1.2725. Conversely, if sellers stage a comeback and trigger a market reversal, the first line of defense against a bearish attack lies around the 1.2600 mark. Additional losses beyond this point may create the right conditions for a slide toward trendline support and the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2560. GBP/USD daily chart   Source: TradingView Gold price technical analysis Gold rose modestly on Thursday but hit a roadblock around $2,030, a key resistance zone where a downtrend line aligns with the 50-day simple moving average. Sellers need to defend this area vigorously to prevent bulls from reasserting dominance; failure to do so could result in a rally toward $2,065. On the other hand, if sentiment reverses in favor of sellers and prices begin to retreat, support can be identified at $2,005, positioned near the 100-day simple moving average. Further downside pressure may then bring $1,990 into focus, followed by $1,995. Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart   Source: TradingView       This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
    • Explore the potential rebound of the Japanese yen in 2024 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) considers rate hikes. Analysing the yen against USD, EUR, and GBP, we uncover the implications of BoJ's policy changes.   Source: Bloomberg   Forex Bank of Japan Japanese yen Euro USD/JPY EUR/JPY Written by: Diego Colman | Market Analyst, New York   Publication date: Friday 23 February 2024 07:30 The Japanese yen has weakened significantly against its top peers in 2024, owing to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) dovish stance. While major central banks globally have aggressively raised rates over the past two years to combat inflation, the BoJ has remained steadfast, maintaining highly accommodative policy settings. However, the era of significantly relaxed monetary policy in Japan may be nearing an end, potentially as early as the early months of the second quarter. This shift could mark the beginning of a sustained upswing for the yen, suggesting the worst may be behind us. Wage negotiations spark hope: a turning point for Japan's monetary policy If annual compensation negotiations between major Japanese firms and unions, expected to conclude around mid-March, result in substantial pay increases above 4.0%, policymakers might gain the confidence needed in the sustainability of wage growth to finally move away from negative interest rates. We will learn more about the BoJ's monetary policy outlook in the coming weeks, but the indicators seem to be aligning for a rate hike in late March or, more likely, April. As markets begin to anticipate this scenario, the yen may gradually start to rally. USD/JPY technical analysis USD/JPY climbed on Thursday, approaching resistance at 150.85. If gains pick up pace in the coming days and break above the 151.00 handle, buyers may get emboldened to initiate a bullish assault on last year’s high near 152.00. On the flip side, if sellers return and drive the exchange rate lower, technical support appears around 149.70, followed by 148.90. Further losses from this point onward may usher in a pullback towards 147.50 in the near term. USD/JPY daily chart     Source: TradingView EUR/JPY technical analysis EUR/JPY extended its advance on Thursday, steadily approaching last year’s peak around the 164.00 handle. Bears need to strongly defend this ceiling; failure to do so might lead to an upward push toward trendline resistance at 165.00. In case of a bearish reversal, support is anticipated at 161.50 and 160.70 thereafter. On further weakness, all eyes will be on the 100-day simple moving average located near 159.60. Below this level, the 50-day simple moving average could act as the next shield against additional losses. EUR/JPY daily chart   Source: TradingView GBP/JPY technical analysis GBP/JPY rallied on Thursday, hitting a fresh multi-year high above 190.50. With bullish momentum intact, additional upside potential is likely in the short term, with the next resistance threshold at 192.50, followed by 196.00, marking the highs of 2015. Conversely, should the upward momentum wane, resulting in a market retracement, support is seen around the psychological 190.00 level, and subsequently at 188.50. Further down, bears are likely to set their sights on the 50-day simple moving average in the vicinity of 185.50. GBP/JPY daily chart   Source: TradingView       This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
    • COST Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Daily Chart, 23 February 24 Costco Wholesale Corp., (COST) Daily Chart COST  Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend   MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: Motive POSITION: Minor wave 3 of (1).   DIRECTION: Upside in wave {v} of 3.   DETAILS: We are in between Medium Level 650$ and TL 800$ in what could be the end of a major Minor wave 3. Looking for continuation higher towards 800$, knowing the trend is starting to get weak as we are in the final stage of a wave {v} Technical Analyst : Alessio Barretta         COST Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 4Hr Chart, 23 February 24 Costco Wholesale Corp., (COST) 4Hr Chart COST Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: Motive POSITION: Wave (v) of {iii}. DIRECTION: Upside into wave {v}. DETAILS: We are looking for either a wave (iv) in place or else a wave (iv) in the making, to then continue higher into wave (v). We can see RSI is showing signs of weakness which confirms the bias we are in the final stages of a trend.         Welcome to our COST Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge, your ultimate destination for comprehensive insights into Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) using Elliott Wave Technical Analysis. As of the Daily Chart on 23rd February 2024, we delve into significant trends guiding the market. *COST Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Daily Chart* In terms of wave dynamics, we identify a dominant impulse function with a motive structure. The current position is in Minor wave 3 of (1), indicating upside momentum in wave {v} of 3. As we hover between Medium Level $650 and TL $800, this could mark the potential end of a major Minor wave 3. We anticipate further continuation higher towards $800, although we recognize the weakening trend as we approach the final stage of wave {v}. *COST Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4Hr Chart* Here, the wave function maintains its impulsive mode with a motive structure. The present position is in Wave (v) of {iii}, signaling further upside movement into wave {v}. We anticipate either a completed wave (iv) or the formations of wave (iv), followed by continued upward momentum into wave (v). Notably, the RSI shows signs of weakness, confirming our bias towards the final stages of the trend.
×
×
  • Create New...
us