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Is it really just like last October?


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S&P500 is now at levels last seen October 2019....a mere 6 months ago. When things were apparently very much like now. Totally similar, in fact.  Save 26 million more unemployed, govt debt that has gone into the stratosphere, whole market sectors on their knees with no sign of rapid recovery and a highly contagious, potentially deadly virus that still infects the planet. Apart from that, everything is the same and the S&P practically mirrors the economic reality and is definitely not an over exaggeration or bubble, plus the virus has gone and will not come back until after the election when it will be proven, beyond any reasonable doubt, to be some else's fault. 

So is it really just like last October? Are we due another melt up of equity and commodity values? Or are equities already over valued as things stand? Has unlimited QE simply funneled vast amounts of tax payer cash into the hands of those who know best how to profit from such federal and government largesse at the expense of the real? If the S&P were to be believed everything is just like October 2019. This is not the case surely? Is this another bubble ready to pop? Looks like it. Beware of ever increasing values of equities, they no longer reflect the reality of life lived by the majority, there is an imbalance. As usual, the markets are overcompensating. The mechanisms being used to fix current problems are only building greater ones down the road, at the expense of the taxpayer, naturally. The distribution between those that have and those that don't have enough will only widen, causing real future problems, not to mention ethical contradictions and matters of jurisprudence.

It is all too surreal and surely not at all like last October, no matter what the S&P infers. (That he garden is rosy once more).

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As an addendum, one only has to look to China and see their reality on the ground. China is currently back to "normal", it is on a 3 day week (split shifts to avoid any rush hour), shops are open but sales are down considerably, bars are open but empty, flights are still grounded and the state and people are still very nervous of a second wave of infections coming from without.  Savings are down and spending is more parsimonious as folk suit their budget to new incomes.  In short not the "V" shaped recovery many expect or predict. 

Naturally, it will be different in the West, won't it?

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49 minutes ago, 786Trader said:

Beware of ever increasing values of equities, they no longer reflect the reality of life lived by the majority, there is an imbalance.

Point being, company valuations are based on P/E, which have become less and less reliant on the E for earnings. It is as if the "E" is being viewed with binoculars rather than a microscope. 

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I believe in value investment.

The temporary up or down is caused by trader (Or called Speculator by Ben Graham)

At some point, stock price should return to the real value of the market, and I truly believe there will be a huge crash coming very soon, and the crash would probably deeper than what it should be, which will be caused by the same reason of the current situation. Traders in the market always overreacting.

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