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THT Market Education - How to WIN

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1 last post - couldn't help myself!!!

Simple 1 x 1 Gann Angles projected from the high/low price points - I'll admit that this is ultra advanced trading stuff here, the message here is two-fold

  1. The markets regardless of what you think or have been told are NOT random, they HAVE no choice but to work out a pre-set course according to their growth or decay
  2. Gann Angles are far far better at identifying support/resistance levels - BECAUSE the market or specifically price action is NOT 2D, we can clearly see price conforms to a grid system movement - that ain't 2Dimensional!

You could blindly trade those gann angles if you have the right level of expertise and knowledge of them - look at the blue circles - price rallied then fell back to them and bounced pretty accurately, they won't all work and the highest swing high is under threat at which you can't project further levels from

Again here's the secret of success - you could of skewed the R value into your favour by having a 20/25pt stop underneath, trailed a stop and made fantastic R value returns

Gann said over 100 years ago "Markets are financial points of force and that EVERY low/high is connected to another low/high point of force in the FUTURE, as well as in the past" As you can clearly SEE - he was absolutely right - very few people look at the markets right, when you do you see things completely differently to most other traders/investors

There's some real science behind markets moves - I might do a post in future months as understanding what is actually going on helps you see through the fog and makes things a bit clearer 

I'll admit I've studied Gann for years and it is not easy, it is very hard to grasp - he hides hidden messages in his course that can throw you off for months and when you to apply his methods some just do not work

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Right - Here's a very highly profitable and highly accurate trading method - misuse it and you'll lose as with any method!

I've personally used this for over 10 years very successfully on multiple markets trading ETF's in my SIPP and ISA

You CAN massively **** this up - It does NOT work in ALL market conditions - I'm showing you how it works in an UPTREND - it performs differently in a downtrend and a sideways market!

Charts shown are the DAILY Nasdaq100 Index:

This is how you use an Indicator properly and with precision

There is no other Indicator better than the 2 period RSI Indicator for Identifying market cycles of price in the market

The best thing to do in an UPTREND is to BUY the DIPS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

They KEY to this is having a method for knowing when an UPTREND is starting, in play and potentially ending

Here's what out old friend WD Gann says "The safest place to buy is on the second reaction following a down trend" - (This is the 1st black up arrow on the chart)

"Watch out for a change in trend when a correction EXCEEDS BOTH in time and price any correction of the previous trend"

Remember - markets won't always trend like this either - the only way you're going to know is by being in it!

How would you of guessed the Nasdaq100 would trend?

You wouldn't but you WOULD of known that following a 30+% correction the obvious direction is upwards bias, remember the USA stock markets have a bias upwards - so does the FTSE250 index - Then end of March as I'm polishing off another slice of birthday cake market rallies from the lows, retraces 1 bar, then rallies 2 bars, then retraces causing a higher swing low than the low of March  = making a secondary reaction swing low AND the 2RSI trade set-up signal = possible change of trend from down to UP - which is what happened

If this set-up up is of Interest to you are going to have to Investigate it - markets don't trend nice and flowery as I've shown below

Also note - as previously mentioned in this thread - you define a trending a market as having higher highs and higher lows

As you can SEE - the ONLY trade (not marked on the chart - I'll let you find it) that you would have got stopped out on was 3 bars following the highest high on the chart 

8 winning trades out of 9 (The win rate is NOT always as good as this shown!)

IMPORTANT:

In a corrective pullback of a few bars - 2RSI will be FALLING - It will NOT have ticked upwards until the trade has triggered and you're long into it!

The tick UPWARDS of 2RSI IS CONFIRMATION of a cycle LOW - the MINIMUM expectation is of a price close HIGHER than the swing high preceding the cycle low - as you can SEE, this happened in EVERY occurrence 

Ignore the reversals in 2RSI above 25% level - They signal the half cycles and generally give less bang for your buck

You'll notice I've not mentioned targets or selling prices - UP to YOU, how you trade it

As this is a very very high probability trading method - I like to trade 2 units (i.e. 4% Initial risk) Sell 1 unit at 1-2R just in case we're wrong! and then let the other unit just run, placing the stop under each valid swing low point until stopped- by that I mean the swing low confirmed by the 2RSI - Then pyramid the position with each new signal if funds permit

If you do the above with a SB then the 1st unit needs to be a daily DFB type and the 2nd unit a longer futures contract

What you should notice is that most of the time when you are WRONG your buy order entry WON'T trigger (the market is likely to make lower lows and lower highs as it pullback), the typical pullback for this is 4 bars max, any more and its odds on the trade will get stopped if you're taken in - If this happens WAIT until the next swing UP forms a secondary reaction low and then start again

Also - SOMETIMES the 2RSI does NOT make it <25% on a secondary reaction - these secondary reactions are in themselves another very high probability trading opportunity in their own right without an Indicator

"Skew the Risk:Reward into YOUR favour (which is a KEY to winning) and you'll make decent returns from the markets" I've mentioned and shown the WORST stop placement for you by skewing reward to you this would be improved

There is NO logical sense in having a stop more than 1 price bars range from the low of the set-up bar to the high of the set-up bar - if price goes below the set-up bars low then the trade would be VOID

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Details: just showing you 2 trades here so not to clutter the chart with lines

Green = Entry level + 1 penny

Red = Stop placement level -1penny (worst case)

How many other methods do you know that get you into a trade within 1-2 bars of the actual low?

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Further.....

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Check out the 2017 trending section too and the messy 2016 period - you can ONLY trade what the market gives you, sometimes its messy and other times such as 2020 its perfect - that's why Patience is a KEY to success

Now in UPTRENDS - that are VERY FAST this method will not register a <25% 2RSI reading - there was a very fast price rise in Oct 2014 where price just kept 2RSI >40 - nothing you can do here but watch or have other trading methods to trade during fast markets

Kudos has to go to Walter Bressert (RIP) who published details of cycles and using RSI to identify cycle lows etc and WD Gann who over 100 years ago was trading secondary reaction points 

People think that today's markets are different to 100 years ago - they are NOT, the very SAME market formations show up time after time after time - Secondary Reaction points are just 1 of them

DISCLAIMER: - You are 100% responsible for your own trading - no liability can be attributed to THT if you **** up a perfectly workable trading method, If in doubt then do not take a position! If you cannot make money in 1 year trading this method then I would take stock and quit trading, some rip off merchants would charge you £1,000's for a course/method like this

Hope it helps

Happy Trading

THT

 

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Here's the settings to fix for the slow STOCHASTIC Indicator to match the 2RSI Indicator - the only diff is the lower level line for the Stoch needs to be @ 30     

All Indicators do is tell you past momentum of price bars and ultimately show the same thing  - using it to identify cycles in the market is a unique technique 

UPTRENDS = Higher Highs and Higher LOWS along WITH a CLOSE above the prev swing high

DOWNTRENDS = Lower Highs and Lower LOWS along WITH a CLOSE below the prev swing low

Also NOT all Indicators are the same regardless of what they are called on a trading platform - which could result in mis-reading of said Indicator - It's up to you to make sure it's as accurate to what is required as possible

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Posted (edited)

Thank you, I've really enjoyed this thread.
On the RSI-2 strategy I saw a similar one from Larry Connor, except he suggests a very low RSI level of below 10, and only trading it short-term until the price is back above the 5MA - this is a very tight trade and in reality in UK markets I don't see how that could be profitable, even though it has a high probability, as you are grabbing such small gains.

Back to my actual question. I assume you have tested your method in downtrends, using the reverse strategy of RSI2 above 75 and selling below the low of the trigger bar.? Not had chance to look at that, but will do over the weekend.

Thanks again.

Edited by Monions
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3 hours ago, Monions said:

Thank you, I've really enjoyed this thread.
On the RSI-2 strategy I saw a similar one from Larry Connor, except he suggests a very low RSI level of below 10, and only trading it short-term until the price is back above the 5MA - this is a very tight trade and in reality in UK markets I don't see how that could be profitable, even though it has a high probability, as you are grabbing such small gains.

Back to my actual question. I assume you have tested your method in downtrends, using the reverse strategy of RSI2 above 75 and selling below the low of the trigger bar.? Not had chance to look at that, but will do over the weekend.

Thanks again.

You're welcome, thanks for the comment

Yes I could never get Larry Connors RSI2 to work as the UK markets aren't set-up for ultra tight trading - I think with his method too if you remove the stop it improves hit rate too, I might be wrong as I last read Street Smarts about 8 or so years ago

DOWNTRENDS:

Test it - It's not a direct inverse of the long only method - The reason for this and why I didn't show it, is depending on where you are in the overall cycle of the market will mean you'll need to trade this differently 

When the long term direction of the market is UP - corrections won't last long - you can't let profits run to the downside, you'll need hard and fast price targets or a defined trailing stop

As the market will always fight upwards - stock market that is

You need to define what a downtrend is and for how long, as it will work >75% (2RSI) but if the downtrend is a quick event you'll not have many signals and you do run the risk of being stopped out much more frequently than the long method

Give me a few weeks and I'll write another thread on how to trade it in down trending and sideways trading ranges/markets etc as its not exactly an Inverse of the Long method

I don't want to bamboozle with too much info

Watch this space....

 

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Did some work over the weekend!

The main Idea with 2RSI is to catch the cycle turns in the market - notice the "triangles" that show up at times and in varying shapes of triangle/arches - the reason these aren't perfect is your viewing multi-dimensional price and time data forced into a 2 dimensional price chart

Rather than bog you down with the markets, just have to have a pre-established method for determining if a market in in an UPTREND / DOWNTREND or going SIDEWAYS and then trade according to what condition you think the market is in

As you will see in the trade below the market was "potentially" transitioning from up to down, but in the end it didn't, HOWEVER, the R:R was more than acceptable to have a crack - bear in mind I'm showing R:R worst case on the charts, in reality you can easily DOUBLE it, so a 3R profit potential trade then becomes 6R+ for 6R anything is worth a crack/punt

If you do that you will be able to effectively trade 2RSI in those market conditions - In UPTRENDS buy the dips only and in DOWNTRENDS sell the rallies - In a sideways range you can do both buy the dips and sell the rallies

the thing to remember here is that if you're using the 2RSI correctly you WILL catch the cycle turns and that means that the high or low of that cycle turn whichever it may be WILL be the high/low bar of it until the cycle ends and the next cycle forms - notice how when trading in the right market condition's you're very rarely caught out by a "stray" stop, this is BECAUSE you're catching the high/low of the cycle!

Obviously at some point you're going to get caught out - but this is trading, you need to manipulate the risk:reward into your favour to offset such times

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Not all violations of a swing low change a trend, but they DO open up some short trading opportunities for you - see very recent action in the Nasdaq100 below

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Zoomed in chart of the chart above:

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Chart below shows a temp downtrend in an overall up trending market - lower highs and lower lows are the confirmation, but remember when trading we are always best guessing the blank space to the right of the chart, all I can show you is perfect conditions to utilise the methods - you WILL get caught out occasionally, its just part of being a trader which is why you HAVE to accept losses will happen!

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Next swing:

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Next swing down: Here's a decision you have to make about how you trail stops as too tight and you'll easily miss the trade potential, too loose and on other trades that don't hit target you'll end up giving profits away! If its a genuine downtrend then by the laws of nature the prev swing low HAS to be hit - HAS to be

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Right Targets:

IF you trade 2RSI correctly, in the right WAY in the right market conditions and you improve on the stop placement shown which means you'll improve the R:R significantly, then you will not be too concerned about scrabbing for a few extra R profit as you'll be making enough profits not to be too concerned

Swings often make 100%-200% of the prior swing - it is IMPOSSIBLE to know what % level price will stop on - so here you need to decide in your trading plan what level if any you're going for and devise risk management around it - as you can see in these charts sometimes levels are hit, other times they're not - also you will notice that once the swing lows are hit sometimes theres a big retracement in the opp direction followed by % levels being hit

I personally make enough from Rvalue profit that I don't often chase the % target levels - its entirely your choice

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Next

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Last chart in shorting post

Read this carefully as there's 2 projection methods on this chart - 100+% retracements of the UP swings and then 100+% projections of DOWN swings projected from the high of the trade in question

In this case if you chased the projections you'd be well rewarded - once the swing low was hit only a small retracement occurred then crash

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I don't want to confuse you too much as lots has happened in this post - make sure you get your head around it 1st

In the 2 charts above you could have trade 3 units - sold 1 unit @ 1-2R profit to ensure a profit, sold another unit @ the swing low price target and then used the 3 unit to trail loosely down aiming for those price targets

Up to you - there's no real right or wrong way to do this - as we've seen sometimes price targets get hit, other times they don't, but you sit there thinking "If only" when they hit and you're not in on it

This is for DOWNTRENDS - as downtrends aren't like uptrends, especially in the stock market as its natural bias is to go upwards!

In the stock market uptrends you can let unit 2 just run as the profit returns when this happens (which is often) MASSIVELY outweighs the limitations of doing this method in a non-trending sideways market  - as you will see in the next post on sideways market - unit 2 doesn't work that good

Again this is why you need to know exactly what you're doing trade wise before you even enter a position and just follow your rules

For example-  If I have a holiday or time away for days coming up from the market, then I will only trade 1 unit and use targets of the swing high/low, but if I'm not away from my screen then I will trade 2 units   

and its up to you to trade markets in the conditions you want - that's your job as a trader to seek out

DISCLAIMER: - You are 100% responsible for your own trading - no liability can be attributed to THT if you **** up a perfectly workable trading method, If in doubt then do not take a position! If you cannot make money in 1 year trading this method then I would take stock and quit trading, some rip off merchants would charge you £1,000's for a course/method like this

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SIDEWAYS market / trading range:

ANYONE telling you that you cannot trade professionally and profitably using an Indicator, quite simply does not know what the hell they are talking about

REMEMBER - VERY VERY few people actually make money trading, even fewer manage to make a living from it

As with EVERY trading method out there - proof is in the pudding

Notice the swing lows were often NOT exceeded - especially by the % ratios I've previously mentioned that happen in uptrends and downtrends - REASON IS market condition has changed

For those of you like ME and want to know WHY = You are now viewing price action either "square on or very nearly square on"! In uptrends and downtrends the price action is "twisted" away/towards our view as viewed from on a 2 Dimensional price chart!

NOTICE all the very near perfect double/triple bottoms and double/triple tops - If we could "SEE" price action square on then it would do this all the time, bumble, bumble, then whoosh up/down, bumble, bumble, whoosh etc!

This is WHY you NEED a trading method/rules for an UPTREND, a DOWNTREND and a SIDEWAYS market - because price acts differently in each one of them!  To start with, have all this info in mind, but just trade one market conditions, become an expert in it, then and only then move on to the next market condition, do the same, then the next then once you an expert in it you will see opportunities within 3 seconds of looking at a chart, know the market condition and be able to formulate expectations followed by trades that WIN and are PROFITABLE

I just love using swing high/lows as my trend identifier simply because it works!

Notes under the chart:

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This one had a slight upwards BIAS

Right I've labelled the sideways action swings:

# Blue 1 = This would be traded as a uptrend as its Gann Secondary reaction and long trade - it worked and you'd of been stopped out on a trailing stop as the prev swing high was never exceeded or closed above
# Blue 2 = Even though the perceived trend was UP - this one could have been shorted as it is a Gann Double TOP potential which turned out to be right - target = #1 low, not reached came within 1 point of the low! 
you'd of been stopped out on a trailing stop
# Blue 3 = Double Bottom, you'd of traded this long - you'd of been stopped out on trailing stop - this is your warning that a sideways range could be forming - the confirmation of the cycle and swing high in 
between #3 and #(A) is warning that market could be in a range - you would Not have traded short this mid swing high as with DB's you expect the trend to continue upwards
# (A)      = Triple bottom - you'd of also traded this long, the close above the prev swing high (not labelled) suggests long side has the bias - you'd of been stopped out on trailing stop on this trade
# Blue 4 = Although this turned out to be a triple top and you could have gotten away with shorting it in reality it was not strong enough for me to be a triple top even though it turned out to be one! Catches us all 
out sometimes!
# Blue 5 = Gann says 4th time @ same level and it usually goes through - I had a short on that triple bottom, it was not touched and as we had a 2RSI cycle low in = long trade - this was a messy one and you'd of 
been stopped out of the trade a couple of times - However, we now have a a confirmed triple bottom with a failed 4th time lucky trade that did not trigger causing a higher low or secondary reaction point @ #5 and if 
price rallies we also have a triple top in place and Gann says 4th time at a level and it should go through, so we want to be in that 
# (B) = short trade = stopped - this would have triggered the 4th time lucky trade long when stop hit = rallied up to # Green 1
# Green 2 = long as secondary reaction trade = stopped on trailing stop
# Green 3 = double top = short (yes we can have both a active long and short in place
# Green 4 = double bottom = long = stopped on trailing stop
# Green 5 = no trade
# (C) = triple bottom and we go long
# (1) = No trade as expected direction is long 
#(2) = Long = secondary reaction again - stopped on trailing stop
#(3) = you could have risked a short here, but in reality no trade as you'd be thinking long direction 
#(4) = Long = stopped - price gapped and you'd of been stop for a loss
#(5) = Short - double top - stopped on trailing stop as #(4) was not reached
# Black a = Long secondary reaction low - stopped on trailing stop
# Black b = Short - stopped on trailing stop as # Black a swing low not reached
# Black c = Long double bottom = stopped on trailing stop
# Black d = the range formation is now very well established so as its a double top short - price target hit @ # Black c low
# Black e = Long - stopped out for loss - then long again as price diverges with the Indicator - technically this would NOT be a trade taken in a trending section as you've got a violation of a prior swing low, BUT as 
we are in a range those rules go out the window as its clear price is trying to rally throughout this multi month sideways market = stopped out on trailing stop
# Black a = no trade trend was up good so assumption is long uptrend starting but not on a secondary reaction
# Black b = Long = Secondary reaction - stopped on trailing stop
 

Also note that the **** of WD Gann from the 1930's does actually work

It also poo poo's those traders or would be traders on here that say you can't make money from daily charts - just massively proven that you can within in this thread as all the charts are daily charts - If a market does not give enough opportunities per year, guess what you do? Trade multiple markets! or you could also drop time-frames again its all up to you as the trader

DISCLAIMER: - You are 100% responsible for your own trading - no liability can be attributed to THT if you **** up a perfectly workable trading method, If in doubt then do not take a position! If you cannot make money in 1 year trading this method then I would take stock and quit trading, some rip off merchants would charge you £1,000's for a course/method like this

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Shouldn't have to do this - and I'm unlikely to be do this much going forward, but as I'm making claims, they need to be backed up by factual evidence

Trade one is a what you could class as a Gann Secondary reaction that fired off the other Friday 2nd the market is ISF which is the ETF of FTSE100 Index

Now this trade did NOT meet the 2RSI criteria for the trade, It is however another method that I trade and it was that set-up that got me into the trade which happened to be also a Gann 2ndry reaction 

There was also another Gann Secondary reaction that the 2RSI failed to meet in early August - The tick UP above 25% with an Inside Bar is OK to trade too but you need the swing high taking out fast 

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Proof of trade = Unleveraged inside a normal trading account SIPP account

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Trade Two is another Gann Secondary Reaction in the GOLD market, taken this one as a SB - This is now @ BE and will trail the stop up  or target hit

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THT

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Thank you for adding the extra posts around downtrending markets. This is an interesting strategy which I am testing at the moment. I usually use a Stochastic.MACD combination to determine entries, the 2RSI approach should compliment those nicely.

Thanks again for your time in putting this together.

 

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Really appreciate the input THT. I'm not a trader but it intrigues me. Maybe one day I may try. Burnt badly on crypto in the early days but have since learned to take a step back and look at the bigger picture.

Thanks

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3 hours ago, Monions said:

Thank you for adding the extra posts around downtrending markets. This is an interesting strategy which I am testing at the moment. I usually use a Stochastic.MACD combination to determine entries, the 2RSI approach should compliment those nicely.

Thanks again for your time in putting this together.

 

No problem, your welcome

 

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2 hours ago, Navarone said:

Really appreciate the input THT. I'm not a trader but it intrigues me. Maybe one day I may try. Burnt badly on crypto in the early days but have since learned to take a step back and look at the bigger picture.

Thanks

Never looked at crypto - your welcome

Happy to help

Markets are doing something entirely different to what most people think they are doing, so it pays to take a big step back and view the bigger picture then drill down 

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Hey THT, Reading Gann atm, it's very nineteenth century reading and quite heavy going...  for 2020  his notes suggest market and stock highs...... as markets can be viewed as cyclical does that not suggest 2021 US Indices will be lower? Question being how high can or will the US indices go? Are we currently at resistance before reversal or resistance to the upside, with more market euphoria in the wings upto new all time highs beyond the 30000 for the Dow even up to 31000+- 500? My personal bias is the peaks have been hit and resistance will prove too much; translating to  bearish trends, where there may be sense in buying, then selling the "dip"....However, I have been consistently confounded by the Dow movements. Less so FTSE which has behaved pretty much as expected and has failed to weather the nexus of Covid and Brexit (potentially bad and hard) and lost a full 30% from market highs in Feb 2020. It could go much lower... US equities (Dow) have lost 3% by comparison. 

To return to markets, I appear to understand (Oil and gasoline) am generally bullish over the medium and long term. (Counter to equity).  Suggest there may be a shift to commodities when equity fails to shine. Bear in mind also there has been an irreversible shift between how people live and  how and where they work, how they purchase (bye bye cash) what they value and what is of value. (USD anyone?No I'll take gold thanks, or bitcoin?). A paradigm shift. Folk are going into equity because it is seems to be the only game in town (it isn't) and there seems to be pent up tensions that need to be released, so equity seems the only logical answer.  Even if earnings are down 20% year on year, for example. It's counter intuitive. Big time. Just curious to hear your thoughts.

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11 minutes ago, 786Trader said:

Hey THT, Reading Gann atm, it's very nineteenth century reading and quite heavy going...  for 2020  his notes suggest market and stock highs...... as markets can be viewed as cyclical does that not suggest 2021 US Indices will be lower? Question being how high can or will the US indices go? Are we currently at resistance before reversal or resistance to the upside, with more market euphoria in the wings upto new all time highs beyond the 30000 for the Dow even up to 31000+- 500? My personal bias is the peaks have been hit and resistance will prove too much; translating to  bearish trends, where there may be sense in buying, then selling the "dip"....However, I have been consistently confounded by the Dow movements. Less so FTSE which has behaved pretty much as expected and has failed to weather the nexus of Covid and Brexit (potentially bad and hard) and lost a full 30% from market highs in Feb 2020. It could go much lower... US equities (Dow) have lost 3% by comparison. 

To return to markets, I appear to understand (Oil and gasoline) am generally bullish over the medium and long term. (Counter to equity).  Suggest there may be a shift to commodities when equity fails to shine. Bear in mind also there has been an irreversible shift between how people live and  how and where they work, how they purchase (bye bye cash) what they value and what is of value. (USD anyone?No I'll take gold thanks, or bitcoin?). A paradigm shift. Folk are going into equity because it is seems to be the only game in town (it isn't) and there seems to be pent up tensions that need to be released, so equity seems the only logical answer.  Even if earnings are down 20% year on year, for example. It's counter intuitive. Big time. Just curious to hear your thoughts.

I would not use his cycles - Gann wrote a huge amount of his work veiled in secrecy or double meaning - a lot of what he wrote doesn't work - but some of it does on his basic form reading - I've disclosed most of it in this thread above - I have left out though a couple of the more profitable methods as I've not seen then produced anywhere else - the methods above are highly profitable if you use the right Risk and stop placement

I DO use cycles, but I use my own that I stumbled upon when trying to get Gann's cycles to work (years of testing here) - you'll get very frustrated if you blindly follow Gann's courses on cycles, as you mention some of it is heavy going - that's because he isn't telling you the full story, he gave you part of the key

There's been a few (I've never been a member) very serious Gann dedicated online work groups who have tried to crack his code and ended up wasting years of time - don't waste your time down that route

For cycles I ONLY look at the most speculative freely traded stock market which is the USA markets and specifically the NASDAQ100 Index - check out my Time Cycle thread I posted the other week

The reason the markets defy common logic is that they will work out in accordance of the time cycle  - I've not published on here, but the markets will over the next 14 years be going UP UP and UP - obviously that will not be in a straight line - I might be completely and utterly wrong, but for the past 228 years the USA markets have been conforming to certain cycles and sequences and I fully expect that to happen going forward as long as the USA markets are the worlds leading market for speculation, which the Nas currently is and has been since 1999

I accept and understand that lots of this completely goes against most conventional wisdom on the markets, but then again if conventional wisdom drives the markets why do 95% of would be traders end up failing!

Gold or gold backed money will eventually come good, once the powers that be figure out a way to profit from and control it as they have producing fiat currencies and debt

I don't want to publish my cycle material on this thread - It will completely confuse people learning how to beat the game - I might expand on the Time Cycle thread I published the other week, as when you understand the cycles that control the markets all that confusion about what the market will do next evaporates - That does not mean it is possible to predict the day to day or month to month moves of the market! It means that it is possible to know when the market will experience big turns like 1987, 2000, 2003, 2007, 2009 etc which for some people are worth knowing - but you can still make money fro the markets not having a clue about it as well

Reading Gann you might come across his "Wheat 120" trade of 1909 - I have absolutely no idea and I know of no-one who has ever been able to replicate that prediction to this day, so either Gann had 1 massive lucky call or that information is still buried, so you have to be really careful with Gann

THT

 

 

 

 

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Hi THT, thanks for the reply and info. Am interested in the 369 progressions and note that Tesla had a similar sympathy  for 369. It's not exactly light reading, but fortunately he (Gann) was not writing under the influence of narcotics, in secret, like Nostradamus. Sepharial, also found useful keys, that he then obfuscated and sold. Strange, early nineteenth century trends; discovery, paranoia, followed by obfuscation into meaninglessness. Thing is, as the old adage goes " you can take a horse to water, but they might not drink", which is valid for all information, teaching and learning. If you are ready and receptive then it is easy, if not, no chance.  Any how am quietly, slowly working through it. 

As for  US Equities going UP and Up and UP over the next 14 years, it is consistent with modern trends of US equity over the last 20 years. One has naturally not mentioned the corrections (which is where the really big profits can be made).  For example, selling equity in Feb 2020 and repurchasing same equity in early April 2020 would have returned a gain of 37% in 6 weeks, holding them for 6 months would have returned another gain of 54% vs just holding and a gain of net zero. Shorting Oil in Feb and repurchasing same in April, a return of 200%..... that which goes up, will want to go down, it is the nature of things. Which I suspect which is what Gann was suggesting and presenting a working formula to explain said movements, much as Tesla was hot on the vibrations of 3,6 and 9....

Am still not convinced of the value of the Dow atm, and feel at the least, it should return more to its 20 and 50 day moving averages (28000+/- 150) sooner than later (by Friday), but more realistically fall 3-5% in the near future. Otherwise, it's on track to break out and exceed all time highs and head higher into the clouds, which seems like bad timing  atm(pardon the pun).  Either way would suggest the Dow is in for another whipsaw roller-coaster until the completion of this election cycle. As for Oil, go long, people will start flying and moving again and the price will return to more normal levels Q1-Q2 2021 (Brent @$60) and beyond. Short term, wait until next Monday to go long, as oil futures move more or less in tandem with US  Equity futures and suspect and expect some volatility this week.

That said, have a fine day and hopefully manage to make a little profit.🙂

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1 hour ago, 786Trader said:

Hi THT, thanks for the reply and info. Am interested in the 369 progressions and note that Tesla had a similar sympathy  for 369. It's not exactly light reading, but fortunately he (Gann) was not writing under the influence of narcotics, in secret, like Nostradamus. Sepharial, also found useful keys, that he then obfuscated and sold. Strange, early nineteenth century trends; discovery, paranoia, followed by obfuscation into meaninglessness. Thing is, as the old adage goes " you can take a horse to water, but they might not drink", which is valid for all information, teaching and learning. If you are ready and receptive then it is easy, if not, no chance.  Any how am quietly, slowly working through it. 

As for  US Equities going UP and Up and UP over the next 14 years, it is consistent with modern trends of US equity over the last 20 years. One has naturally not mentioned the corrections (which is where the really big profits can be made).  For example, selling equity in Feb 2020 and repurchasing same equity in early April 2020 would have returned a gain of 37% in 6 weeks, holding them for 6 months would have returned another gain of 54% vs just holding and a gain of net zero. Shorting Oil in Feb and repurchasing same in April, a return of 200%..... that which goes up, will want to go down, it is the nature of things. Which I suspect which is what Gann was suggesting and presenting a working formula to explain said movements, much as Tesla was hot on the vibrations of 3,6 and 9....

Am still not convinced of the value of the Dow atm, and feel at the least, it should return more to its 20 and 50 day moving averages (28000+/- 150) sooner than later (by Friday), but more realistically fall 3-5% in the near future. Otherwise, it's on track to break out and exceed all time highs and head higher into the clouds, which seems like bad timing  atm(pardon the pun).  Either way would suggest the Dow is in for another whipsaw roller-coaster until the completion of this election cycle. As for Oil, go long, people will start flying and moving again and the price will return to more normal levels Q1-Q2 2021 (Brent @$60) and beyond. Short term, wait until next Monday to go long, as oil futures move more or less in tandem with US  Equity futures and suspect and expect some volatility this week.

That said, have a fine day and hopefully manage to make a little profit.🙂

That's EXACTLY how buy and holders should Invest - the corrections are the best places to be buying/selling

Don't go down the predictions route without acceptance of open eyes - its fraught with danger and huge frustration

To compare what to expect from the Nasdaq100 look back to 1949-1968 and 1982-2000 - It should do something similar - I think both periods returned 1000+% growth ish

There's a sequence of UP/DOWN price general rises that run to a cycle of 16-19 years (Gann NEVER ever mentioned this cycle) when looking back the markets make sense when you view them in the right sequence/section - so for example - 1966-1982 was a DOWN section, followed by an UP section 1982-2000, then 2000-2016 was a DOWN section - we're now in the next UP section which MUST be a growth section - might not seem it right now, but when we look back from 2034 it will definitely have been up

Happy Trading

THT

 

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Short SP500 - Weds 14th Oct 2020

Double Top with 2RSI <75% - DAILY Timeframe

25 point stop - this stop is already @ breakeven 

Do we KNOW this will work and reach target? NO BUT we do know that if we do this on EVERY trade potential lots of them WILL and it is THAT, that makes you the % growth

Now we basically Ignore the Indicator from now on and adhere to risk management rules to manage the trade

Those are - Leave alone for 2 trading days, then protect open profits with a trailing stop until stopped or target hit

417.thumb.JPG.fc1a38f5703846a35f3373085d4dff90.JPG

Proof of trade - I've just taken this as a DFB contract, Depends on how quick the trade lasts for it might have been more advantageous to have selected the next months futures contract

 Also I've taken the trade assuming a account value of £2k - risking just 2% of that £2k = £40 for the trade

Target on the chart = 9.57R potential

Worst case we have now is a scratch trade, but the upside is a very healthy nearer 10R profit potential

418.thumb.JPG.bdf0213e8c87bb9fe5888c6b9e5a0883.JPG

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On 15/10/2020 at 09:25, THT said:

Short SP500 - Weds 14th Oct 2020

Double Top with 2RSI <75% - DAILY Timeframe

25 point stop - this stop is already @ breakeven 

Do we KNOW this will work and reach target? NO BUT we do know that if we do this on EVERY trade potential lots of them WILL and it is THAT, that makes you the % growth

Now we basically Ignore the Indicator from now on and adhere to risk management rules to manage the trade

Those are - Leave alone for 2 trading days, then protect open profits with a trailing stop until stopped or target hit

417.thumb.JPG.fc1a38f5703846a35f3373085d4dff90.JPG

Proof of trade - I've just taken this as a DFB contract, Depends on how quick the trade lasts for it might have been more advantageous to have selected the next months futures contract

 Also I've taken the trade assuming a account value of £2k - risking just 2% of that £2k = £40 for the trade

Target on the chart = 9.57R potential

Worst case we have now is a scratch trade, but the upside is a very healthy nearer 10R profit potential

418.thumb.JPG.bdf0213e8c87bb9fe5888c6b9e5a0883.JPG

Stopped out overnight for a SCRATCH / BREAKEVEN trade

Think this could roll into next week before it becomes clear on whether the DT is valid or whether we are in fact heading to highs

What we have now is a bullish situation in the opposite direction! The trend from 24th Sept = UP, 3 bar pull back/correction WITH a PIN BAR and 2RSI <25% in the reversal zone

Next trade set is LONG above 3495

I am worried about the potential DT but we have a valid trade setting up that we've taken many times before successfully, so my "thinking" is:

  1. We could have a reversal to the highs and poss more = long trade
  2. This could just be a temp pull back in the start of a downward trend =This WILL form either DT or a gann secondary reaction to which a short trade can be established from (for this the 2RSI for me does NOT have to hit >75% - I will take the position based on price action form)
  3. The Double Top (DT) could still happen
  4. If the long trade is triggered then if #1 and #3 happen there's enough movement in price to get my stop to BE - if the long trade triggers and #2 is occurring then i might suffer a full 1R loss - happy to take the risk!
  5. The WEEKLY Indicator is Overbought - but this happens in uptrends too as well as DT's/reversals etc so little weight is given to this at the moment, however, it will roll over IF price declines
  6. We've now got a correction to the mini uptrend that is greater in both time and price than any corrections throughout the uptrend - This could be signalling tops in or close to being in

The KEY is to be adaptable - I don't care about being "right" all I care about is that I get onto the move whether its up or down and the driver is price action NOT the Indicator

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