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Anyone noticed that the FTSE100 Index (cash) has sync'd to a 20 trading day Low-Low cycle?

Markets do this all the time - anyone monitoring TIME would have been one step ahead of the pack as to expecting turns

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Best thing to do is read what people post - you soon work out those that haven't got a clue - I "ignored" him weeks ago, so I don't see anything he writes - just ignore him, don't bite He'll fail

OKAY - I'm assuming that you'll read those books, understand about expectancy, risk, position sizing etc as it's absolutely vitally Important - It's a massive reason that most people fail  You ne

This thread is to help those that are struggling to WIN and to BEAT the markets, it will also help you to look at the markets differently and understand what is going on from a technical analysis poin

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Another one that works!

Gann Triple bottom, up tick of the 2RSI on the signal bar from below the 25% Oversold level - gapped at the open the next day (can't be avoided) BUT the trade is up 6R

Market is ETF = CNX1 which tracks the Nasdaq100 (I trade this through my SIPP and ISA accounts) 

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PS - Markets CAN'T rally at that ANGLE for long! Pull back is approaching

Some TA actually works - most doesn't though!

Safe trading

THT

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4 hours ago, THT said:

Another one that works!

Gann Triple bottom, up tick of the 2RSI on the signal bar from below the 25% Oversold level - gapped at the open the next day (can't be avoided) BUT the trade is up 6R

Market is ETF = CNX1 which tracks the Nasdaq100 (I trade this through my SIPP and ISA accounts) 

487.thumb.JPG.e5c2349695137dd7a4038077497ac59e.JPG

PS - Markets CAN'T rally at that ANGLE for long! Pull back is approaching

Some TA actually works - most doesn't though!

Safe trading

THT

Looking at my vol signal for nasdaq volatility, the VXN is extremely bullish and at the low end of its volatility range (23.15) whilst very near the top end of its price range @57054. Whilst you are right that pull backs can occur  and very probable at these levels , it is important to be cognisant that if the volatility of the VXN keeps getting compressed and stays compressed , we are blowing past that level with no pull backs. 

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Just now, Courage said:

Looking at my vol signal for nasdaq volatility, the VXN is extremely bullish and at the low end of its volatility range (23.15) whilst very near the top end of its price range @57054. Whilst you are right that pull backs can occur  and very probable at these levels , it is important to be cognisant that if the volatility of the VXN keeps getting compressed and stays compressed , we are blowing past that level with no pull backs. 

correction the VXN @23.15 and CNX1 @57054

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9 hours ago, Courage said:

correction the VXN @23.15 and CNX1 @57054

There'll be a stall in price or a pullback - its impossible for a market to continue posting higher low and higher high bar after bar - the laws of the market don't permit it

It could be a Gann pullback, a sideways correction or a more severe pullback - but it will happen - 20 years of intimately studying the market attest to that

I might be misreading your comment or you my post - I'm not saying that's it for the rally - I'm showing a technical analysis method that actually works  as people will be trading TA that doesn't quite work and wondering what's going on

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6 minutes ago, THT said:

There'll be a stall in price or a pullback - its impossible for a market to continue posting higher low and higher high bar after bar - the laws of the market don't permit it

It could be a Gann pullback, a sideways correction or a more severe pullback - but it will happen - 20 years of intimately studying the market attest to that

I might be misreading your comment or you my post - I'm not saying that's it for the rally - I'm showing a technical analysis method that actually works  as people will be trading TA that doesn't quite work and wondering what's going on

To clarify, I am in agreement with your post , my math says the risk reward is not worth is not worth it trying to chase this one.

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7 minutes ago, Courage said:

o clarify, I am in agreement with your post , my math says the risk reward is not worth is not worth it trying to chase this one.

Yeah it's best to get in as close to the low as possible 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Ok - following on from the last chart

One thing you MUST remember is NO-ONE knows what a market is going to do exactly, we are GUESSING and using BEST GUESSES based on PROBABLISTIC outcomes

CNX1 - The ETF of Nasdaq100 - did exactly as it said on the tin

We had:

  1. The Triple Bottom 
  2. The 2RSI tick up on the formation of the Triple Bottom
  3. Then the pullback

Then we got a DOUBLE top formation, which for those inclined offered a shorting opportunity:

  • Double Top 
  • BOTH the 7RSI and 2RSI showed on the close of the bar labelled (RED) 2 - negative divergence (Lower high reading in the RSI) compared to red bar labelled 1
  • Break of the low of bar labelled red 2 = go short with a stop 1 penny above the high of bar labelled 2

Seeing these "swings" is much much easier by adding a swing file to ones charts - Remember also most chart patterns have logical places that INVAIDATE the trade - that is where your stop goes!

Over 110 years ago - WD GANN said "Buy Double/Triple bottoms and sell double/Triple tops" - That advice still works today and I can attest it beats lots of the touted trading methods out there

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LOW came in on trading day 18/19

This is perfectly acceptable in trading - just because we have a 20 day low cycle in play does not mean it has to come in dead on trading day 20 - I like to see the low point on trading days 19-21, so we have a 1 day window either side of trading day 20

Also clarity over EXPECTATION - I'm expecting an assault on the most recent swing high of a few days back, to be able to make money from  - BUT technically its ALREADY done the low expectation! Lows happened, its printed, the low is in - the swing high happening right now in price COULD be the swing high and we head off to print new lows - as traders we have to have this in our mind as a possibility as remember no-one knows exactly what is going to happen for certain

The "Edge" is we know that there's a 20 trading LOW cycle in the FTSE100 Index that in the past has been exploitable from a profitability point of view - ask 100,000 traders and maybe 500 (0.5% at best) of them will know and understand a) about this and b) how to exploit it properly for profit, but the vast majority of would be traders will be absolutely totally oblivious to realising that a) cycles even exist and b) cycles drive the markets

Not shown is the 2RSI in the oversold zone with a tick upwards in that date range

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Remember just because someone can't make Technical Analysis work does not mean it does not work - As I am showing you quite clearly it does work if used correctly - I'll concede that most of the TA stuff out there does not work for you to make a living as a full-time trader, but the bits that do work, do allow you to!

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  • 2 weeks later...

Rock and Roll

FTSE100 20 trading day cycle performs AGAIN

Low on day 18 and 19 (19 is the KEY) WITH 2RSI Bullish reversal from the oversold zone

Cycle catches the low once again for more profits

"I thought markets were random?" - THT says "Yeah Right LOL"

Remember the next 2 dates are bang around the forthcoming Time Cycle mentioned in my Time Cycle thread

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