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THT Market Education - How to WIN


THT

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Anyone noticed that the FTSE100 Index (cash) has sync'd to a 20 trading day Low-Low cycle?

Markets do this all the time - anyone monitoring TIME would have been one step ahead of the pack as to expecting turns

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  • 2 weeks later...

Another one that works!

Gann Triple bottom, up tick of the 2RSI on the signal bar from below the 25% Oversold level - gapped at the open the next day (can't be avoided) BUT the trade is up 6R

Market is ETF = CNX1 which tracks the Nasdaq100 (I trade this through my SIPP and ISA accounts) 

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PS - Markets CAN'T rally at that ANGLE for long! Pull back is approaching

Some TA actually works - most doesn't though!

Safe trading

THT

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4 hours ago, THT said:

Another one that works!

Gann Triple bottom, up tick of the 2RSI on the signal bar from below the 25% Oversold level - gapped at the open the next day (can't be avoided) BUT the trade is up 6R

Market is ETF = CNX1 which tracks the Nasdaq100 (I trade this through my SIPP and ISA accounts) 

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PS - Markets CAN'T rally at that ANGLE for long! Pull back is approaching

Some TA actually works - most doesn't though!

Safe trading

THT

Looking at my vol signal for nasdaq volatility, the VXN is extremely bullish and at the low end of its volatility range (23.15) whilst very near the top end of its price range @57054. Whilst you are right that pull backs can occur  and very probable at these levels , it is important to be cognisant that if the volatility of the VXN keeps getting compressed and stays compressed , we are blowing past that level with no pull backs. 

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Just now, Courage said:

Looking at my vol signal for nasdaq volatility, the VXN is extremely bullish and at the low end of its volatility range (23.15) whilst very near the top end of its price range @57054. Whilst you are right that pull backs can occur  and very probable at these levels , it is important to be cognisant that if the volatility of the VXN keeps getting compressed and stays compressed , we are blowing past that level with no pull backs. 

correction the VXN @23.15 and CNX1 @57054

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9 hours ago, Courage said:

correction the VXN @23.15 and CNX1 @57054

There'll be a stall in price or a pullback - its impossible for a market to continue posting higher low and higher high bar after bar - the laws of the market don't permit it

It could be a Gann pullback, a sideways correction or a more severe pullback - but it will happen - 20 years of intimately studying the market attest to that

I might be misreading your comment or you my post - I'm not saying that's it for the rally - I'm showing a technical analysis method that actually works  as people will be trading TA that doesn't quite work and wondering what's going on

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6 minutes ago, THT said:

There'll be a stall in price or a pullback - its impossible for a market to continue posting higher low and higher high bar after bar - the laws of the market don't permit it

It could be a Gann pullback, a sideways correction or a more severe pullback - but it will happen - 20 years of intimately studying the market attest to that

I might be misreading your comment or you my post - I'm not saying that's it for the rally - I'm showing a technical analysis method that actually works  as people will be trading TA that doesn't quite work and wondering what's going on

To clarify, I am in agreement with your post , my math says the risk reward is not worth is not worth it trying to chase this one.

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7 minutes ago, Courage said:

o clarify, I am in agreement with your post , my math says the risk reward is not worth is not worth it trying to chase this one.

Yeah it's best to get in as close to the low as possible 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Ok - following on from the last chart

One thing you MUST remember is NO-ONE knows what a market is going to do exactly, we are GUESSING and using BEST GUESSES based on PROBABLISTIC outcomes

CNX1 - The ETF of Nasdaq100 - did exactly as it said on the tin

We had:

  1. The Triple Bottom 
  2. The 2RSI tick up on the formation of the Triple Bottom
  3. Then the pullback

Then we got a DOUBLE top formation, which for those inclined offered a shorting opportunity:

  • Double Top 
  • BOTH the 7RSI and 2RSI showed on the close of the bar labelled (RED) 2 - negative divergence (Lower high reading in the RSI) compared to red bar labelled 1
  • Break of the low of bar labelled red 2 = go short with a stop 1 penny above the high of bar labelled 2

Seeing these "swings" is much much easier by adding a swing file to ones charts - Remember also most chart patterns have logical places that INVAIDATE the trade - that is where your stop goes!

Over 110 years ago - WD GANN said "Buy Double/Triple bottoms and sell double/Triple tops" - That advice still works today and I can attest it beats lots of the touted trading methods out there

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LOW came in on trading day 18/19

This is perfectly acceptable in trading - just because we have a 20 day low cycle in play does not mean it has to come in dead on trading day 20 - I like to see the low point on trading days 19-21, so we have a 1 day window either side of trading day 20

Also clarity over EXPECTATION - I'm expecting an assault on the most recent swing high of a few days back, to be able to make money from  - BUT technically its ALREADY done the low expectation! Lows happened, its printed, the low is in - the swing high happening right now in price COULD be the swing high and we head off to print new lows - as traders we have to have this in our mind as a possibility as remember no-one knows exactly what is going to happen for certain

The "Edge" is we know that there's a 20 trading LOW cycle in the FTSE100 Index that in the past has been exploitable from a profitability point of view - ask 100,000 traders and maybe 500 (0.5% at best) of them will know and understand a) about this and b) how to exploit it properly for profit, but the vast majority of would be traders will be absolutely totally oblivious to realising that a) cycles even exist and b) cycles drive the markets

Not shown is the 2RSI in the oversold zone with a tick upwards in that date range

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Remember just because someone can't make Technical Analysis work does not mean it does not work - As I am showing you quite clearly it does work if used correctly - I'll concede that most of the TA stuff out there does not work for you to make a living as a full-time trader, but the bits that do work, do allow you to!

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  • 2 weeks later...

Rock and Roll

FTSE100 20 trading day cycle performs AGAIN

Low on day 18 and 19 (19 is the KEY) WITH 2RSI Bullish reversal from the oversold zone

Cycle catches the low once again for more profits

"I thought markets were random?" - THT says "Yeah Right LOL"

Remember the next 2 dates are bang around the forthcoming Time Cycle mentioned in my Time Cycle thread

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  • 2 weeks later...

Happy Birthday to me, Happy Birthday to me.......

Another example of a Technical Analysis method that actually works

Here's a position I got into on my birthday late March - GOLD market ETF LONG

Swing file line shows we have a Gann Secondary Reaction at the LOWS, with tick up in RSI  - Can't get simpler than this, caught the swing low within 1 bar of the turn point

Then weeks later all the "noise and chatter" about Inflation - those in the know knew Inflation was set to be an issue back in early March!

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I'm generally not a fan of trendlines, but I am of these - again using with market structure and formation

This is the DAILY chart of EURUSD from 2013

Lots of info on the chart and here

This formation doesn't happen that often, but often enough to profit from - again another under used technical analysis method that actually works!

Right on the chart below we have an Elliott Wave 5 wave - i DO NOT trade Elliott Wave - I just want to show you how some other TA merges into form reading - I only noticed the EW 5 wave AFTER I'd seen and labelled the WM formation 

Notice on the WM formation the Gann Secondary reaction (Elliott Wave 1-2), then the lazy last leg up of the W to form a "twisted" W, then a V to form the wave 5 top, then we get another W which is coming towards us and the last leg is stunted then a A to finish it off - so lets focus on the WA part coming down:

From the wave 5 high to the swing low point e is an Expanding Triangle  - If you'd of been trading the trend line you'd of missed point e as it failed to reach the trend line

Swing low point c would have been a spot on trade

I've marked on the chart swing low points a and c - at point a you would not have formed the trend line but you would have seen it coming down into point c, so you could have bought at the trend line or used Gann's "LOST MOTION" method and bought when price rallied back up through point 1 price level

As we can see point e failed to reach the trend line - so using Ganns "LOST MOTION" trading method you could have gone long at price level made by the low at point c

WD Gann wrote about these formations (WVAMWW) etc way back in the early 1900's - as you can see they work just as well now as they did back then because of the simple fact and reasoning that HUMANS make buying and selling decisions today just as they did way back then!

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Bonus material:

Notice how the pivot points are often (not always) just exceeded and then price reverses, shown by the arrows - WD Gann called this "LOST MOTION"

this is most likely the only time ever i will show you this

Draw a straight horizontal line from each pivot point (I've not shown this line) - sometimes the market just squeaks through and reverses, other times it exceeds by a lot and then reverses - THIS IS WHAT MARKETS DO!

Take the big swing down to a low in July 2013 - Notice it went past the previous swing low then burst upwards - just imagine having a buy order at the prev swing low pivot price point at 12800, the stop would have been 35 pips and the target the previous swing high at 13400 - a 600 pip return for risking 35 pips! That's a whopping 17R (17 times risk)

some swings aren't worth the risk - but some are

Gann's mantra was "Make big gains on small risks" - this and the other Gann methods I've shown you in this thread are the reason Gann managed to turn out 1000's% growth per year by READING the market and trading with leverage (Gann used to risk 10% of his account per trade - I'm not that brave)

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Hi there,

Sorry this question isn't specific to the thread really but i just wanted to ask, is everything you talk about in reference to spread bet trading? I.e. you're using leverage.  I know IG have other instruments but i assume its mostly about spread betting.. And again i assume thats what most poeple are using when they're trading.

Thanks

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53 minutes ago, u0362565 said:

Hi there,

Sorry this question isn't specific to the thread really but i just wanted to ask, is everything you talk about in reference to spread bet trading? I.e. you're using leverage.  I know IG have other instruments but i assume its mostly about spread betting.. And again i assume thats what most poeple are using when they're trading.

Thanks

Everything - I use the same methods and thinking for trading in spreadbetting, my ISA, my SIPP - the vehicle used to trade in is not that important its making money consistently that's important

The only thing i need to think extra about in spread betting is its not a real market, therefore its not as clean price wise, entry or exit as it is trading a ETF or share inside my SIPP or ISA

Because spreadbets are a market made up by the spreadbetting comp you have to factor in slippage and moves that are out of the ordinary, that does not mean the game is rigged or they are trading against you, it just means you have to take account of the spreads and whatnot

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I see ok thanks for that. I have to admit to being very one dimensional up to now and am only using spread bets but as you know it's more about whether it works consistently more than anything else. 

Unrelated, but I know you're a big proponent of Gann's work. What do you make of the fact that apparently he was not a rich man and did not make his primarily living from trading but writing about it. Given hi is methods seem to work I don't really understand that. Unless he gave it all away of course.

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6 minutes ago, u0362565 said:

I see ok thanks for that. I have to admit to being very one dimensional up to now and am only using spread bets but as you know it's more about whether it works consistently more than anything else. 

Unrelated, but I know you're a big proponent of Gann's work. What do you make of the fact that apparently he was not a rich man and did not make his primarily living from trading but writing about it. Given hi is methods seem to work I don't really understand that. Unless he gave it all away of course.

OMG you've now opened up a can of worms lol

Right - I've studied Gann for the past 10 years and I had the exact same question 10 years ago to which I have yet to work out an answer to! He reportedly made $50mill back in the early to mid 1900's - yet his son was forced to work for a living as a broker, and has said his dad never traded! Then you have his Ticker Interview in which an Independent accountant watched him trade in 1909 ish and made 92% win rate from hundreds of trades in 30 days and turned $1k into about $11k - I might be out on the exact figs but you get the gist.

So I don't know - I'm sceptical and that's only because i know some of his stuff works 

Gann was also an Astrologer - he definitely used planets and astrology in some of his course, I know that for a fact and he was a freemason who use esoteric thinking - geometry etc

no-one in the world has been able to recreate his 120 wheat trade of 1909 - so either he never revealed how to in his works or he has and no-one so far has been clever enough to see it and from 1909 he never repeated it either! - you'd think if you could predict the day and the price a market would reach, you'd publicise it every week

What I do know is that part of Gann works - form reading especially and some of his time cycles 

The thing about Gann was back in the 1900's he was talking about the markets being multi-dimensional so he was light years ahead of most people today, as its been proved they are

I use a lot of gann as its simply what the market does, I've developed my own other methods too and I've just mixed them over the years - but you can get way led by Gann if you get consumed by thinking he wrote the secrets to the markets in his courses 

Gann interlaced Price with TIME - but in my experience doing this with gann's conversions would shove loads of lines on a chart, some would work others wouldn't - for me risking money on that is too hit and miss and too imperfect

Saying that - Don't poo poo Gann - This is a very simple use of Gann interlacing price into TIME - as you can see it hit the March 2009 low to the exact day!  All we did was convert the low price into TIME (the following 2 cycle dates are simply 2339 calendar days from the previous)

Whether you use this or not is up to you (I don't) - but you will find is that the market is interlaced with mathematics both in time and price and a lot of it is AFTER price has moved which is useless to trade from/with - so as a trader you need to either completely ignore it or research it to death and use only those factors which work

Also you will find that TIME converts into PRICE levels

SP500 Index:

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PS- in the chart above you will notice the date of 15th August 2015 - I've published in my Time Cycle thread the first chart which shows this plunge date which shows a date of 18th Aug 2015 - these are 2 differing methods but when they confirm a date with each other its high probability 

Now if the Dec  2021 date proves a hit you'll have 3 dates forecast in advance that caused good turning points in the main index market - all from the low price of the bear market of 2002 - with forecast time turns 7, 13 & 19 years PRIOR - just that alone should make people stop and think markets aren't doing what they think they're doing!

PPS - you can add Fibonacci and geometrical ratios to price and time levels and lots of them hit

Now you don't need to know anything at all about Gann or mathematics to make money from the markets - all you need is a tried and tested method to catch reversals, breakouts or a simple trend following method

 

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and to confirm about expanding triangles and failed trend lines:

Today in the ETF CNX1 of the Nasdaq100 Index

Entry = Gann's Lost Motion target is swing high @ d - It just can't get much simpler 

Remember Gann said - "Sell Double/Triple TOPS and Buy Double/Triple BOTTOMS and buy on secondary reactions" - I think this chart shows those pretty self explanatory

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Ok you've lost me on a lot of that but on Gann it is interesting how many stories there seem to be and given it wasn't that long ago, seems to have turned to a lot of chinese whispers. I kind of love all that order to the universe stuff. Anything that personally helps you make sense of the market and make sensible decisions can't be bad.

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13 hours ago, u0362565 said:

Ok you've lost me on a lot of that but on Gann it is interesting how many stories there seem to be and given it wasn't that long ago, seems to have turned to a lot of chinese whispers. I kind of love all that order to the universe stuff. Anything that personally helps you make sense of the market and make sensible decisions can't be bad.

Yeah its a tough one - there's very little material out there on Gann, that's why all the guesses and whatnot - Gann got purchasers to sign non-disclosure agreements which is probably why not much of his work filtered through and the fact that back then he was charging a fortune for it

Then you have the vendors who have spent years researching Gann, figure out that they can't repeat what he did and then start selling his "secrets" to claw back time and money they investing in their pointless research, so over the years a lot of merchants selling their wares have muddied the trading world waters of **** information.

The thing is basic Gann works, some of his Time Cycle and time theory works and I know for a fact that expanding on this through my own work and research has proved that certain aspects of time and price can be used for predictive purposes - obviously all with the aim of exploiting the markets 

I don't know this for a fact but I reckon Gann was one of the first traders to publically identify the stair stepping nature of trends with higher highs and higher lows - whether he made $50 mill or not, he definitely knew how to trade 

I'm one of those people who look at a piece of machinery, see's what it can do and then wants to learn HOW it does it, not everyone is like that, so some will get my work and others might not. 

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  • 1 month later...

15 trading opps, 14 won, 1 loss! 93% win rate - since the March 2020 crash FTSE100 Index (NOT Including March 2020 or June 2021)

Notice this last date - price low 2 days LATER than date - this is the LATEST its been in the past 15 months

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EVERYTHING on this planet and in the universe abides by the laws of vibration and harmony - EVERYTHING, including man-made markets

Where there's a 20 day cycle, there also exists a 10 day cycle (half/50% or 180 degrees) of the 20 day cycle:

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Where there's a 20 & day cycle you'll also find a 5 day cycle that synchronises harmonically with them to!

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All combined:

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DON'T fall into the trap of thinking EVERY peak and trough can be identified - they can't and you don't actually need to - just catching a few can be really worth while 

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Hi THT, I assume you have this vertical time grid plotted out in advance and you're waiting to see if the market obeys it.  Is this time cycle purely derived from observation?  So following the Covid crash you could observe 3 lows and plot 3 vertical lines and see that theres roughly an equal distance between them. You could then plot out more further in time with the same interval. That seems very simplistic but perhaps that is not how you come about it. When I say it looks simplistic I realise there is a lot more to a strategy than this observation to make it work. 

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8 hours ago, u0362565 said:

Hi THT, I assume you have this vertical time grid plotted out in advance and you're waiting to see if the market obeys it.  Is this time cycle purely derived from observation?  So following the Covid crash you could observe 3 lows and plot 3 vertical lines and see that theres roughly an equal distance between them. You could then plot out more further in time with the same interval. That seems very simplistic but perhaps that is not how you come about it. When I say it looks simplistic I realise there is a lot more to a strategy than this observation to make it work. 

It really IS that stupidly simple - the hard part as with lots of methods is how you play it and manage the risk

Sometimes though its not the actual, actual low it could be a swing low 

A chap from the USA called Walter Bressert (Deceased) back in the 1980's published work on a 20 day cycle in the SP500 along with other things

Larry Williams back in the 1980's also published in one of his books on trading a 4 year cycle on the dow/SP500 that goes back 200 years with a highish win rate - Aug-Oct time every 4 years expect a low turn point in the market - 2018 was out by a 2 months - but you can see the cycle right there on the chart below

Note - The Dec low was a major Time Cycle expected that overrode the 4 yr cycle, so although it looks to have been a high/failure, the TC due Dec 2018 took precedence

Next line to keep an eye out for is Aug-Oct time 2022

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Sometimes depending on the market you might have to work to part days which would mean running on intraday timeframes which adds complexity to seeing the cycles - so don't expect to run a 20 day low to low cycle on x market and expect to see it, some markets work off high to high cycles - but for the FTSE100 its a 20 day visible low to low cycle on a daily time frame chart as published

Again there's easier things to trade than this - I'm just publishing stuff most people aren't aware of, to show that the markets aren't random beasts that most people think they are - there's an order to them

 

 

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Here's an update for the CNX1 (Nasdaq100) ETF shown above in May 2021

Remember we entered this using Gann's LOST MOTION technique - very very few people in the world know about lost motion (Physics/Engineering term) in the world of trading - when you get an expanding triangle the risk reward is insane

On the chart below look at all those lost motion trades 

At no point to date has the market taken out a trailing 2 bar stop

The current R profit is standing at 25R the trailing 2 bar low stop stands at 22R

Risking just 2% of an account = 44-50% in what 1 and a half months

Gann said "Large returns off small risks" This is what he was talking about - most "swing trading" methods you'll see will return an average of 3R LM is one of the best swing trading methods out there and hardly anyone knows about it! Because people don't know how to read a chart properly 

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8 hours ago, u0362565 said:

Hi THT, this week's stupid question. When you say 2 bar trailing stop. That's the low of the previous two daily/weekly bars behind the current day/weeks bar?

Hi

There are no stupid questions in this game

Chart below shows 2BTR stop - you could have a 3BTR stop - personal choice - there's no right or wrong here

Your next question should be about the correction between the first a b swing following entry to the trade:

You ONLY move the 2BTR stop up if the market is following higher highs and higher lows and closing higher, so that 1st black line stayed there in place for 6 price bars from swing high point a - if the market does not make new highs with higher lows you don't move the stop until the market starts doing so or fails to do so and stops you out

There's no perfect trailing stop method, it doesn't exist, just explore methods and use what feels best for you - who cares about losing a few R profit when you're making 10's of R gains, the thing is to make the profit and then work out ways to protect some of it that suits you

Make it all mechanical - I've been in that trade long whilst expecting the market to reverse if the Time Cycle worked - the time cycle failed - so the important lesson here too is trade what you SEE not what you think is going to happen, If I'd of been blind-sided by the TC and let my thinking of what might happen influence me  I might not have put that trade on, as it happens over time I've learnt to just trade set-ups as they pop up.

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I see thanks.  And when you're talking about lost motion, this is another phrase for retracements i assume?  I looked up lost motion in engineering-kind of interesting to know but couldn't really see the link to markets, other than if you consider that any dips are just inefficiencies in the system.

Edited by u0362565
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1 hour ago, u0362565 said:

I see thanks.  And when you're talking about lost motion, this is another phrase for retracements i assume?  I looked up lost motion in engineering-kind of interesting to know but couldn't really see the link to markets, other than if you consider that any dips are just inefficiencies in the system.

Lost motion is as in the Engineering term - when the force of price takes out a prior swing and then reverts backwards, sometimes this LM is tiny and other times significant

Price swings of varying % degree size or volatility size - Swings of varying degrees on each market are significant

I just see the market in a different view to most people - that CNX1 trade through advanced knowledge of the market has provided a a 20+R profit compared to a profit of 8R 

The TERMINUS points of swings can have magnetic attraction for the next or future swing(s)

Pink line below shows LM on CNX1 - some work, some don't, but I can tell you, you can massively outperform markets by having the right risk:reward for this, as I've shown on the CNX1 trade above

So you get a swing high then a correction or down swing, then price rallies above the prev swing high = LM trade set=up possibly, market trades back down through the swing high = go short

Vice versa for swing lows

Targets and stops up to the trader - this LM method has a low - average win rate but a big R value, if played correctly

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EUIRUSD: Different swing size - LM still appears

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