Jump to content

Now Oil Fundamentals come into line with technicals


Mercury

Recommended Posts

For some time my technical analysis has been suggesting Oil have further to fall and the bottom has not yet been reached.  Others have talked about how Saudi managed supply will keep Oil prices stable but there are 2 issues with that theory:

 

  1. There is no evidence from the past that anyone can so manipulate oil prices and in any case the US shale producers have to keep producing to service debt and Iran will keep producing to get hard currency
  2. Global economic activity by almost any measure except government stats (or I could say politicised, cook government stats...) is falling and with it demand for commodities has fallen and continues to do so, leading the way for other markets once everyone wises up

Now there is fresh information that oil analysts are waking up to this demand side importance.  Check out the attached article.

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-13/oil-slides-after-iea-turns-pessimistic-sees-oversupply-extending-dramatic-decelerati

 

For me I still see a rally to the $60 ish mark before this demand side reality hits home but in any case the long term prognosis is down to new market lows I think.

Link to comment

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      21,632
    • Total Posts
      91,900
    • Total Members
      41,914
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Sobbosachi_728
    Joined 25/03/23 17:38
  • Posts

    • Charting the Markets: 24 March The FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 slide on renewed banking woes while EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and GBP/USD drop as the US dollar, gold appreciate due to flight-to-quality flows. Crude oil and copper tumble on recession fears.  Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 24 March 2023         This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.  
    • Market Breakdown | WTI Oil, EURUSD, GBPNZD, EURAUDHere are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watchlist.1️⃣ WTI Oil daily time frame️The market is trading in a long term bearish trend .After the last sharp bearish movement, the market is steadily recovering.Ahead, I see a major horizontal supply area.Probabilities are high, that the next bearish wave will initiate from there.2️⃣ EURUSD daily time frameAfter a breakout of a solid daily resistance, the market is preparing for its retest.Watch carefully the underlined zone and look for buying opportunities from there.3️⃣ EURAUD weekly time frameThe pair is currently approaching a weekly horizontal resistance cluster.Taking into consideration, that the pair is quite overbought, probabilities will be high to see a pullback from that4️⃣ GBPNZD daily time frameThe pair is currently retesting a broken neckline of an ascending triangle . As we discussed earlier, the trend line of a triangle and its neckline compose a contracting buy zone now.Chances will be high that the next bullish wave will initiate quite soon.For Additional confirmation use: Divergence Indicators
    • #CHFJPY: Classic Bearish Setup 🇨🇭🇯🇵   🔻CHFJPY has nicely respected a confluence zone based on a horizontal 4H resistance and a 0.5 retracement of the last bearish impulse.   The price formed a double top pattern on that and broke its neckline.   Probabilities will be high that the pair will drop lower soon. Goals: 141.172 / 140.363  
×
×
  • Create New...