Jump to content

GBP/USD/AUD Triad showing short term reversal


Recommended Posts

I am short term bullish on GBPUSD, seeking 13,600 minimum as a target but the move is complex and fraught with difficulties.  I now believe GBPUSD is in a complex retrace, signaled by multiple reversing A-B-C moves inside a range.  I believe that contrary to low timeline signals this market is currently in an A-B down rather than a 1-5 up and when this ends a wave C up to 13,600 will be triggered, possibly by no USD rate rise next week.  Decent UK retail stats did not really spark a rally and Fundamentals traders may point to the BoE data in a 1/2 hour or so but everyone expects no action there so why the wait?


The daily chart indicators suggest a downward move has not yet completed and could travel back down to the higher weekly tramline (purple) and the 13,000 area to complete the B wave.


The AUDUSD, conversely, is showing strength signals after a drop through the Triangle.  In an uncertain market, which I would suggest this certainly is, a retrace back for a retest of the breakout zone is eminently possible here, especially with some strength in commodities (see HG copper).  There are also lower time frame rally signals so looks set for a short term bounce.


To complete the GBPAUD is showing some short term softness.  Again I am medium term bullish on this pair as I believe we are in a big picture retrace to Wave 2 (pink).  However it seems likely that we have only just hit wave A so a return and retest of the tramline breakout in a Wave B is possible.  All this fits with the other 2 scenarios or this Triad.


Therefore while I remain medium term bullish GBP I am short term bearish.  The big trade will not present until the GBPUSD retrace back up to the Brexit price gap is done in my view.  A Fed rate rise next week cancels this analysis and reverses it but what are the chances.  I prefer a no rate rise scenario with a strong rally against the USD at that point.  Note AUDUSD could continue to rally through the Triangle line while GBPAUD also rallies so watch out for that wrinkle.


Link to comment


This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Scrolling through Bitget's Twitter feed today, I stumbled upon something interesting: the upcoming listing of the BLAST token. A quick search revealed a project with some intriguing features, particularly its focus on native yields for ETH and stablecoins. This Layer 2 solution built on Ethereum seems to address some major pain points in the DeFi space.     By leveraging the Shanghai update, it offers auto-rebasing for ETH and T-Bill yields for stablecoins, all while aiming to reduce transaction fees significantly. Plus, it boasts a team with a solid track record and backing from well-respected investment firms. So, what do you guys think? Is BLAST the next big thing in DeFi, or is it just another layer 2 solution in a crowded market? With the token listing soon on Bitget, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on its potential impact on the crypto space.  
    • Ethereum's popularity is undeniable, but its congested network can be frustrating for users due to slow transaction speeds and high fees. Layer-2 solutions like Blast aim to tackle this by offering faster, cheaper transactions without compromising security. Blast takes things a step further by providing native yields for both ETH and stablecoins, simplifying the staking process for users. Similar solutions like Polygon and Arbitrum also offer scalability benefits, but Blast's unique yield generation and focus on bridging real-world assets to DeFi set it apart. This creates an environment where users can earn passive income while enjoying the advantages of a faster and more affordable network. Blast's native token is set to be listing on Bitget June 26th, this could further increase its visibility and adoption within the DeFi community The competition in the layer-2 space is fierce, each platform vying to become the go-to solution for smoother DeFi experiences. What are your thoughts on Blast and its approach? Share your experiences with other layer-2 solutions and let's discuss the future of scaling Ethereum.
    • Coffee Elliott Wave Analysis Function - Counter-Trend Mode - Correction Structure - Double Zigzag for blue Y Position - Wave C of (B) Direction - Wave C of (B) is still in progress Details - We recounted Coffee on all time frames. However, we expect the commodity to ascend after completing the zigzag wave (B) around the Fibonacci reversal zone of 212.9-203.9. Invalidation level is at 192.30. Coffee Elliott Wave Analysis Overview: In the long term, Coffee prices have been on a bullish run since October 2023. Despite several pullbacks, each previous top has been consistently breached. The last top was made in April 2024 at 245.5, followed by a decline to 192.3 within three weeks, extending to May 7th. Notable recoveries started from there. However, prices have yet to breach 245.5 to confirm the continuation of the bullish sequence from October 2023.   Daily Chart Analysis: Since January 2023, a double zigzag structure has been unfolding. Wave W (circled) finished on April 18th at 245.5, and the corresponding wave X (circled) was completed at 192.3 on May 7th, where wave Y (circled) began. Wave (A) of Y appears to have concluded with the impulse surge to the current peak in June 2024. Prices are now correcting into wave (B). If wave (B) completes above 192.3, buyers should gain the advantage to push prices higher, especially above the 245.5 top.   H4 Chart Analysis: On the H4 chart, wave (B) is subdividing into a zigzag structure, potentially completing around the 212.9-203.9 Fibonacci zone before turning upside in wave (C) above 245.5. Alternatively, prices might move sideways between the 245.5 and 192.3 extremes, suggesting a triangle structure for wave X (circled).   Summary: In conclusion, Coffee prices remain bullish with potential for further gains, contingent on the completion of the current corrective wave (B). Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
  • Create New...