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GBP/USD/AUD Triad showing short term reversal


Mercury

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I am short term bullish on GBPUSD, seeking 13,600 minimum as a target but the move is complex and fraught with difficulties.  I now believe GBPUSD is in a complex retrace, signaled by multiple reversing A-B-C moves inside a range.  I believe that contrary to low timeline signals this market is currently in an A-B down rather than a 1-5 up and when this ends a wave C up to 13,600 will be triggered, possibly by no USD rate rise next week.  Decent UK retail stats did not really spark a rally and Fundamentals traders may point to the BoE data in a 1/2 hour or so but everyone expects no action there so why the wait?

 

The daily chart indicators suggest a downward move has not yet completed and could travel back down to the higher weekly tramline (purple) and the 13,000 area to complete the B wave.

 

The AUDUSD, conversely, is showing strength signals after a drop through the Triangle.  In an uncertain market, which I would suggest this certainly is, a retrace back for a retest of the breakout zone is eminently possible here, especially with some strength in commodities (see HG copper).  There are also lower time frame rally signals so looks set for a short term bounce.

 

To complete the GBPAUD is showing some short term softness.  Again I am medium term bullish on this pair as I believe we are in a big picture retrace to Wave 2 (pink).  However it seems likely that we have only just hit wave A so a return and retest of the tramline breakout in a Wave B is possible.  All this fits with the other 2 scenarios or this Triad.

 

Therefore while I remain medium term bullish GBP I am short term bearish.  The big trade will not present until the GBPUSD retrace back up to the Brexit price gap is done in my view.  A Fed rate rise next week cancels this analysis and reverses it but what are the chances.  I prefer a no rate rise scenario with a strong rally against the USD at that point.  Note AUDUSD could continue to rally through the Triangle line while GBPAUD also rallies so watch out for that wrinkle.

 



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