The Truth about Betting Systems

[dmedin]

The Truth about Trading Betting Systems

Not only do betting systems fail to beat casino games with a house advantage, they can’t even dent it. Roulette b@lls and dice simply have no memory. Every spin in roulette and every toss in craps is independent of all past events. In the short run, you can fool yourself into thinking a betting system works, by risking a lot to win a little. However, in the long run no betting system can withstand the test of time. The longer you play, the ratio of money lost to money bet will get closer to the expectation for that game.

https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/

Edited July 10, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

Maybe this is why every 'successful trader' quits as soon as he 'makes millions of dollars' and instead becomes a coach or a trainer because he wants to 'give something back to the community'

[DavyJones]

I think for the most part yes but some traders do make money consistently. I working in the trading floor for 15years but they have huge advantages.  much lower margin far tighter bid ask spreads, Direct market access First in,  Wealth of research, news feeds, quants, economist supporting them, working in teams  of experienced and specialist traders, Squawk box would sound any market information. The odds are pretty well stacked against you as a home trader. 

Whether home traders actually make money or not I am not convinced. The pass off BS like not going to give away their secret as if they found the answer to alchemy. I'd say  anyone who genuinely makes money  has nothing to hide as they got there through years of  hard and intelligent work. The beginner is not going to pick that up no matter what.

Like a pianist saying, I'm a maestro but I won't play in front of you . Do IG ever publish anonymous stats of their best clients?

[Caseynotes]

3 hours ago, DavyJones said:

I think for the most part yes but some traders do make money consistently. I working in the trading floor for 15years but they have huge advantages.  much lower margin far tighter bid ask spreads, Direct market access First in,  Wealth of research, news feeds, quants, economist supporting them, working in teams  of experienced and specialist traders, Squawk box would sound any market information. The odds are pretty well stacked against you as a home trader. 

Whether home traders actually make money or not I am not convinced. The pass off BS like not going to give away their secret as if they found the answer to alchemy. I'd say  anyone who genuinely makes money  has nothing to hide as they got there through years of  hard and intelligent work. The beginner is not going to pick that up no matter what.

Like a pianist saying, I'm a maestro but I won't play in front of you . Do IG ever publish anonymous stats of their best clients?

Hi, I would agree with most of your post though there are a couple of points, firstly, and not trying to be rude but you must be either quite old or trading something unusual, most floor traders became desk jockeys in the late 1990s  when most markets went computerized, though some like the London Metals Exchange stayed floor operated until just a few years ago.

You can get all the add-ons you want, either pay £2k a month desk fees at a prop firm or just subscribe and get them at home, prob total about the same. Trouble being is that you need to already be reasonably successful to afford them in the first place. 

Many people on the forum have said exactly how they trade, many times over in fact, the problem is many people are just very hard of hearing (listening) or just plain hard of thinking, or what they really want is for someone to tell them exactly what to do step by step in real time forever after. Maybe as you say the beginner can't just pick it up and instead needs to go through the whole process.

I doubt IG will release the stats of successful traders, they have over 150,000 clients including many professionals and the info is likely to push those who are struggling and whose mental health is already on a knife edge completely into the abyss. 😁😁😁

 

[DavyJones]

45 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Hi, I would agree with most of your post though there are a couple of points, firstly, and not trying to be rude but you must be either quite old or trading something unusual, most floor traders became desk jockeys in the late 1990s  when most markets went computerized, though some like the London Metals Exchange stayed floor operated until just a few years ago.

 

Dude I am FSA registered  and worked as a derivatives structurer for 15+ years. Every investment bank (and I have worked in 3 big ones )  world wide has "trading floors". They are all called "trading floors" because traders work on them nothing more, front line sales often work on these floors too. Further they are isolated from the rest of the buildings to prevent conflicts of interest. 

 

I know how traders work. I have done it plenty of times myself in a commercial setting .  

As to how successful home trading is,  I have my doubts as there is heck of a lot of BS in this game from "educators" youtube forums etc ,  Doesn't matter how people say how they trade, the effectines is what I am referring to, techniques  means diddly squat without hard proof,  

[Caseynotes]

4 minutes ago, DavyJones said:

As to how successful home trading is,  I have my doubts as there is heck of a lot of BS in this game from "educators" youtube forums etc ,  Doesn't matter how people say how they trade, the effectines is what I am referring to, techniques  means diddly squat without hard proof,  

that's true, a good follow on twitter is GuruLeaks that for years have been outing scammers in what is basically a completely unregulated space. As for providing absolute proof to the constant stream of casual inquiries as to how successful someone is I doubt anyone could be bothered. There is always Nav Sarao of course who made 70 million trading from his bedroom in his mom and dad's house, the US FBI proved that at his court case.

[Kodiak]

Maybe some of the "pro" are making money? (or they have lots of money to start with😉)

"

66% of ESMA region revenue was generated from Professional clients.

-   The Group served 6,000 unique ESMA region Professional clients in FY19.  The average revenue per ESMA Professional client was nearly £27,000 in the year."

 

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/IGG/ig-group-holdings-preliminary-results/14158834

[dmedin]

8 hours ago, Kodiak said:

Maybe some of the "pro" are making money? (or they have lots of money to start with😉)

Sure, and people holding on to an S&P 500 ETF or the like, doing nothing more than buying more shares once a month, are making money too  

Edited July 11, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

13 hours ago, DavyJones said:

I think for the most part yes but some traders do make money consistently. I working in the trading floor for 15years but they have huge advantages.  much lower margin far tighter bid ask spreads, Direct market access First in,  Wealth of research, news feeds, quants, economist supporting them, working in teams  of experienced and specialist traders, Squawk box would sound any market information. The odds are pretty well stacked against you as a home trader. 

Whether home traders actually make money or not I am not convinced. The pass off BS like not going to give away their secret as if they found the answer to alchemy. I'd say  anyone who genuinely makes money  has nothing to hide as they got there through years of  hard and intelligent work. The beginner is not going to pick that up no matter what.

Like a pianist saying, I'm a maestro but I won't play in front of you . Do IG ever publish anonymous stats of their best clients?

All very true.

I wonder if the reason why 'top traders' in the City have a tendency to quit as soon as they can is simply because it is such an unpleasant environment to work in.

So if you've made millions, you can buy a lovely big home in Singapore or Scotland instead of only being able to afford a tiny apartment in central London.

Your quality of life increases so much when you get out of the 'big stink' and start to slow down.  And if you've got plenty of money then it's perfect.

[DavyJones]

21 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

that's true, a good follow on twitter is GuruLeaks that for years have been outing scammers in what is basically a completely unregulated space. As for providing absolute proof to the constant stream of casual inquiries as to how successful someone is I doubt anyone could be bothered. There is always Nav Sarao of course who made 70 million trading from his bedroom in his mom and dad's house, the US FBI proved that at his court case.

 

Its quite easy to sucker someone in to a scheme. In fact to prove a point, years ago on another forum I GUARANTEED that I can consistently make money, day trading . Naturally I was called a total BSitter however I did prove  over 5 days I won and showed Broker screenshots. 

I suddenly turned in Nostradamus with loads of messages as to what my trading strategy was. It would have been easy to start charging a 1000 quid for a trading course to the naive.  
No secret: I just took both sides of the trade every time (so perfectly hedged) and  showed with winning one, with a layer of BS about candlestick patterns and entry / exit  points 😄

I came clean to demonstrate that the industry is fraught with charlatans.

I got pretty sick of reading 'gurus' trading books who constantly cherry pick charts and reinvent age old TA to prove how good they are 

In fact I just quit for Dr Elder's trading forum. He's the dude who wrote  that best seller  book "The New Trading for a Living". 

The inner group as a whole were underperforming the S&P500  and his gold star traders were barely out performing

[Caseynotes]

3 hours ago, DavyJones said:

I suddenly turned in Nostradamus with loads of messages as to what my trading strategy was. It would have been easy to start charging a 1000 quid for a trading course to the naive.  
No secret: I just took both sides of the trade every time (so perfectly hedged) and  showed with winning one, with a layer of BS about candlestick patterns and entry / exit  points 😄

Excellent, well done, hopefully you saved many from walking into a trap but as instagram shows there are thousands of the gullible out there begging to hand over their money.

A regular one that comes round like clockwork every 2 or 3 years is the wonderkid who made millions overnight on the FX and is featured in a nation newspaper. Inevitably the frontman has a rich backer who paid for the photo shoots with the hired Lambo, private jet and faked account statements which they pass on to the hapless hack who prints it all up. With that kind of publicity reach potential punters queue up in their thousands to pay for mentoring or signals or whatever at between 2 and 5k a month each. The best part is that when they finally realise they've been had they're too embarrassed to tell anyone.

[dmedin]

15 hours ago, DavyJones said:

The inner group as a whole were underperforming the S&P500  and his gold star traders were barely out performing

 

So, if somebody just plonked money into an S&P 500 ETF every month, reinvesting the dividends, and held it until they retire, they would outperform these 'successful traders'?  😯

[DavyJones]

6 hours ago, dmedin said:

So, if somebody just plonked money into an S&P 500 ETF every month, reinvesting the dividends, and held it until they retire, they would outperform these 'successful traders'?  😯

that's what warren buffet has been saying for decades, he knows a thing or two about investing  😄

[dmedin]

Here's a good one.  His name even has the word 'money' in it!

https://www.moneyberg.com/wealth-training-webcast