Jump to content

USDJPY breakout to Long campaign?


Recommended Posts

Looks like this pair have broken the longer term downtrend with the bottom Wave 2orB turning point occurring on Brexit day after all and 10000 being the ultimate support zone.  Possible retest of the Tramline and then fast bounce OR the market could just rally away from here.  Either way it does look like a sustained rally and Long campaign on this pair lies ahead.


Link to comment

Just picking up on the exchange with  on the USDCAD thread (discussion of COT data in relation to the Yen) the technical analysis suggests a breakout of the long term downward trend now, although elsewhere I do see suggestions of Yen strength, at least in the short term.  It is possible that the slide to a lower low could resume and given COT data and other technical indicators I do expect some short term strength in the Yen.  At present I am trusting the breakout signal as a confirmation of a trend change but it is likely in this case that we see a retrace back toward the breakout resistance point (now support).  If the market retraces all the way back to the previously broken daily tramline then we will see a decision point to rally away and confirm the trend change to Long USDJPY or a possible resumption on the move to a new lower low.


For now I see some hourly chart weakness in the Yen to a possible wave B retrace followed by a longer move down in the USDJPY back towards the breakout of the daily tramline and after that I will reassess.


Link to comment

Looks like the EWT 1-2 retrace was shorter than I had thought and now we have a potential breakout of resistance level at the Y104 level.  If confirmed then we could get a strong rally in USDJPY from above the resistance line in a strong wave 3.


Link to comment

For me Mercury, i suspect that W2 has not yet been granted to the market yet and i suspect that W1 is come close to a conclusion, therefore i would suspect that we may have a decent retrace, not necessarily back to the triangle. Notice that W2 is a flat abc and W4 is a zigzag, which further places the probability this may not last for long. I have just used the channel for some buys, but i suspect some short-covering would be required very soon, but as long as that channel is not broken, trend is still well intact, and i would not want to argue with that.

Link to comment

A shift of the count to the right, that could be  but I have found that I missed some good set ups because of that kind of thing so the best play is to assume the EWT1-2 is in and protect against the shift to the right and try again if that happens.

Link to comment
  • 2 weeks later...

Looking at this pair been debating if we are going to see another leg up before an ABC retrace down to form W2. From a 4 hourly perspective from what i can make out is that we have most likely completed a W3 a possible ABC flat completion on the 19th october. If you also join W2 to W4 you have a nice channel of which then you can start wondering more confidently if W5 is in play. However i am not too shore we are going to see a strong bull as markets dont operate like this and therefore any longs should in time be exited due to the nature of potential W2. Therefore the 105-10650 could be W5 termination. Therefore happy to look for more longs, as long as the channel on the daily is not broken. CFTC data as of last tuesday also shows some significant decreases in net longs and minor increases in net shorts. 

Any alternative views please share.

Link to comment
  • 2 weeks later...

Finally we see the end of the first rally wave and a retrace has begun.  There was a good opportunity to get short right at the Fib 23%, which presented on the hourly chart as a pin bar, and then a couple of others at the Fib 76% initial retrace and then the Triangle breakout.  The strong drop from the Triangle suggests no immediate retest of the Triangle is likely, next stop wave A and then a relief rally into Wave B before the final phase of a wave 2 to conclude the retrace and after that we should see a very strong rally in line with major moved in other markets.


I plan to cash the wave A shorts and wait for the relief rally to conclude before shorting again to the end of the move down before seeking the big rally.  This pair is moving similarly to the DX overall it seems.


Link to comment

Only price action is the true determinant of the direction of the trend. Although arguably you could say this is the beginning of a bull trend, fundamentals are the story to every move in the market, and since this is a safe haven currency, i am casting some serious doubts if we are going to see a Bull rally i am afraid. I am more than happy to be proven wrong, but with so much uncertainty looming around this year with Trump presidency and the Italian Referendum i still think we may have further to go on this pair. If we surpass W1 of my possible C wave scenario then the game is on, which could suggest that we will see the EURO bulls have some more fun along with the sterling ones as well. For now i happy with the short trade and will simply hedge and pyramid my way through until the trend becomes obvious that we are unlikely to go down any further. 

Link to comment

Contrary views are always very welcome  and I can see where you are coming from.  Given that, your approach to hold Shorts and reevaluate later is reasonable, however as a swing trader I tend to favour cashing a decent profit if I have reason to suspect a strong move against my positions before a resumption of the trend (at which point I would seek to renter).  My approach is different if I believe the market is in a long term trend and I am holding positions in the direction of that trend (then I hold longer term).


My assessment of USDJPY is that it is aligned to DX as a whole and therefore will retrace is an A-B-C (with possibly a deep WB retrace) before rallying hard in line with DX.  If you look at the Daily chart you can see a Head & Shoulders formation and subsequent breakout from there into a strong 1-5 rally (my Wave 1 - blue).  Then we have a wave 2 (blue) retrace in classic A-B-C and then another rally in 1-5 to Wave 1 (green) and now it seems likely we will see another A-B-C retrace back to the Daily tramline breakout resistance levels to prime the strong Wave 3 rally (also in DX).


Regarding fundamentals the the main issue is reading it right.  Truisms such as commodities go down if USD goes up are nice media narratives and have some relevance some of the time but simply does not stack up if you analyse it over a long period of time.  Therefore the question becomes, are we in a period where there is USD to commodity correlation or not?  Answer is how can you know?  I do believe that the Yen is a "safe currency" in general but in the current economic and Financial market environment how many of the old "rules" will apply?  For me the USD is the ultimate reserve currency and America is stronger than Japan economically so while the Yen may strength against other currencies I don't see that happening vs USD when the **** hits the fan.  (BTW I can see GBPJPY going on a rally too so maybe the Yen will actually turn weak, which is what Kurado has been working for after all).


Still as you say, let's watch and wait.  I have cashed my shorts and will await a wave B whereupon I may seek an entry onto a wave C and then cash and reverse for the rally if it presents itself.  Alas the US election may make this difficult and IG certainly do not help with margin increases, although I understand why they do it.

Link to comment

That is it Mercury, although we may trade slightly differently, I myself use a different approach which is tailored to my strategy, but apart from that my analysis is similar to yours. And as you quite rightly point out the US is the dominant economy. But because the market is so obsessed with the next rate hike, anything including Trump that could disrupt that possibility could send the dollar much lower, hence why up until the election, Gold, EUR, Yen are the safe havens for now. But like all events I rather stay right out of it right up until the election, mostly because algos seem to just go very mad. But in summary because like all analysis it really is based on a probability outcome, so having more than one view is always helpful, never useful if we all end up the same, unless it is too blindly obvious.

Link to comment

Agreed but given the relative timing, unless stock indices drop through the floor now, I can see a relief rally back towards the US election and then a further drop off (either just before or just after the election) to complete the A-B-C on DX.  I have always maintained that a strong long term rally in USD must be accompanied by more than just a rate change but also a meltdown in stocks driving a rush to the safety of Gold and USD.  Such a rate rise in December might just do it for both factors and perhaps the US election is in reality a bit of a side show as despite who wins the economic consequences are the same because the US President cannot control nor stave off the geopolitical and economic headwinds and the consequences of these that are inevitable in my view.


I think you can trade non USD FX pairs (see EURGBP for instance) but I too would be loathed to hold positions on stock indices and USD FX unless I had a lot of room to accommodate spikes and to get out with no loss if the tide turns.


So I will hold my USDCHF shorts against a longer wave C, still go for USDCAD shorts if a strong move sets off under an Oil rally and trade commodities (other than Gold/Silver) with no concern for the election.  BTW, Gold/Silver are decent short opportunities just now, especially if we get a small rally to offer a better entry.

Link to comment


This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
    • Total Posts
    • Total Members
    • Most Online
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Joined 27/09/23 22:00
  • Posts

    • Hi buddy, from my experience m, you sounded like you're setting a life goal for yourself in the crypto trading journey while some only treat it as a side gain where they only trade to make some profits, but seeing your eagerness, I'll say you should take it slow and do some due research.  You can try copy trading, it seems people make a lot from it following experts' trades. Please ensure you do your research and don't just take words from people you meet online. Be consistent with your savings of profits and see how you'll grow.
    • Lam Research Corp., Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Lam Research Corp., (LRCX:NASDAQ): Daily Chart, 27 September 23 LRCX Stock Market Analysis: Looking for upside into wave {v} as we seem to be near the end of the correction into wave {iv}. We could find support on the base channel before turning higher.   LRCX Elliott Wave Count: Wave (c) of {iv}. LRCX Technical Indicators: Between 20 and 200EMA.   LRCX Trading Strategy: Looking for longs into wave {v}. TradingLounge Analyst: Alessio Barretta         Lam Research Corp., LRCX: 4-hour Chart, 27 September 23 Lam Research Corp., Elliott Wave Technical Analysis LRCX Stock Market Analysis: Looking for wave (c) to end within equality and 1.618 (c) vs.(a). We can also look at the current RSI divergence we are seeing.   LRCX Elliott Wave count:  Wave v of (c). LRCX Technical Indicators: Below al averages.   LRCX Trading Strategy: Looking for longs into wave {v} after upside confirmation.
    • AUDJPY Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Day  Chart, 27 September 23 Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen(AUDJPY) Day Chart AUDJPY Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Counter Trend Mode: impulsive Structure: blue wave 3 of C Position:  black wave C Direction Next lower Degrees: wave (3 of C) continue Details: blue corrective wave 2 looking completed at 96.083.now blue wave 3 started and strong move expected . Wave Cancel invalid level:96.081   The AUD/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis on 27 September 23, examines the Day Chart of the Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen (AUD/JPY) currency pair. This analysis utilizes Elliott Wave theory to provide insights into potential market trends and price movements.   The analysis identifies its Function as "Counter Trend," indicating a focus on identifying and interpreting market movements that run contrary to the prevailing trend. In this context, "counter trend" suggests an emphasis on potential reversals or corrective movements within the market.   The Mode is characterized as "impulsive," which implies an anticipation of strong and directional price movement. Specifically, the analysis expects an impulsive wave sequence within the market, suggesting the potential for significant and decisive price shifts.   The Market Structure is described as "blue wave 3 of C." This highlights the importance of the third wave within a broader C-wave structure in the Elliott Wave sequence. It signifies that the analysis is centered on the development of this specific wave.   The Position specifies that the analysis pertains to "black wave C," indicating that the entire C-wave structure is of interest in the analysis. This means that the broader context of the C-wave is taken into consideration.   The Direction Next Lower Degrees points to "wave (3 of C) continue," signifying that the analysis is focused on the continuation of the third sub-wave within the larger C-wave structure.   In the Details section, it is observed that "blue corrective wave 2" is deemed to have completed its course at the level of 96.083. The market is now in the phase of "blue wave 3," and a strong price movement is expected as part of this impulsive phase. The "Wave Cancel invalid level" is specified as 96.081, serving as a reference point for risk management and potential trade entry points.   In summary, the AUD/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis on 27 September 23, suggests that the market is currently undergoing a counter-trend phase with an anticipated impulsive price movement in the form of "blue wave 3 of C." Traders are advised to closely monitor this wave for potential trading opportunities, with the specified invalid level serving as a reference for risk management within their trading strategies.
  • Create New...