Whats your record for the most losing trades in a row?

[u0362565]

Hi all,

Easy question of the day.  Just wondered what the stats were from people who know a lot more than me.  As i keep reading every trade is 50/50 so interesting to know how this looks in reality.  It makes me laugh how many tools there are out there and yet it still seems easier to win on flipping a fair coin than to trade on a daily basis.

Thanks

[Karma]

my success ratio is about 60% though must confess I get a bit nervous with my account. Funnily on demo account I do fantastic but I only got into this 2 months ago. I have reduced my account to 20% of my original capital and feel more confident. That said I have been investing long term for 20 years and done very well.

Edited August 10, 2020 by Karma
typo

[dmedin]

15 minutes ago, u0362565 said:

every trade is 50/50

lol, who really believes that?

There's a 50/50 chance the price goes up or down the exact moment after you place it, perhaps ... 

[Ignored]

can be more than 10 times in a row for me..almost feels like the market is just looking at what I am doing and going opposite of me.

It also makes me feel like I would do better trading with my eyes closed at times...

 

[Karma]

3 minutes ago, Ignored said:

can be more than 10 times in a row for me..almost feels like the market is just looking at what I am doing and going opposite of me.

It also makes me feel like I would do better trading with my eyes closed at times...

Today is too hard to read I closed up 0.76% but I should not have traded at all as so hard to read - Im on sidelines now will get back in later.

 

[u0362565]

14 minutes ago, dmedin said:

lol, who really believes that?

There's a 50/50 chance the price goes up or down the exact moment after you place it, perhaps ... 

So you think its more or less?

[u0362565]

I just wonder if a large proportion of people would do as well trading randomly one way or the other compared to trading with what they think they know is happening.  The markets are so random hence might as well flip a coin on short term.

[u0362565]

10 minutes ago, Karma said:

 

Yes i have that paranoia too, but thats all it is

[dmedin]

1 minute ago, u0362565 said:

So you think its more or less?

 

 

If you're saying that every trader has a 50% chance of winning every trade they put on, they it's total garbage.

If that were true, all of us could make money by having a risk-to-reward ratio of 2:1 and only betting 1% of our total account on each trade and we'd all make money, even if we lost 10 trades in a row.

And that would be without the use of any technical analysis.

It's total BS.

A winning strategy can have a less than 50% win rate!

[jlz]

More than -17K in three days.

 

It took me 2 years to recover it  

[dmedin]

9 minutes ago, dmedin said:

a risk-to-reward ratio of 2:1

Reward to risk

[u0362565]

Ok assume you know nothing and you have a 1:1 risk/reward. Now is it 50/50? It's as simple as win or lose in the end per trade but can you say that an individual's probability of winning is skewed by their system hopefully to the good. This is surely evidence based e.g. profitable or not. Anyway it's got a lot more complicated. It was merely a poll of the max number of losing trades. Like is 10 highly unusual? It is when all outcomes are unknown statistically but not once each trade plays out.

 

[dmedin]

5 minutes ago, u0362565 said:

Like is 10 highly unusual?

It's within the bounds of probability but you would not expect to see it often.  

You might occasionally get 10 winners in a row too

[THT]

48 minutes ago, u0362565 said:

I just wonder if a large proportion of people would do as well trading randomly one way or the other compared to trading with what they think they know is happening.  The markets are so random hence might as well flip a coin on short term.

That's the EXACT reason I posted my NEW MOON post - I was going to flip a coin but as I couldn't be bothered to I just opted for it to trade long every new moon - They KEY of the system is the money management and I'm willing to bet it beats 99% of traders and Investors out there most years over 20/30 years

Try trading randomly on paper for 12 months - Flip a coin 1st trading day of every month (heads = go long and tails = go short @ the open - set a stop that is a % of ATR/volatility and a target that is 4+ times the risk  

I've had in the past about 30 losses in a row in my early days - but i was trading multiple methods and it's dead easy to have 10 in a row per system especially with too tight a stop loss!

Drawdowns are parts of all trading methods - you have absolutely no idea in what order the wins/losses are coming in - so its best to know your numbers and assume all the losses are coming one after the other

[Karma]

1 hour ago, jlz said:

More than -17K in three days.

 

It took me 2 years to recover it  

what are you doing these days with trades. although early loss pretty bad you can tell your system seems to be good.

[jlz]

37 minutes ago, Karma said:

what are you doing these days with trades. although early loss pretty bad you can tell your system seems to be good.

Short story - I automated everything, I do not trade anything manually. Everything is automatically executed using the rest API. 

Long Story - I started without a plan, looking at 5 minutes charts with a trembling hand clicking on every candle. What could go wrong? I failed miserably.

Then I prepared a system, nothing too spectacular. Any system can work if it is properly executed. I started with an idea and moved to what I have now, changing parameters as I went along just to comply with the target that I wanted to achieve. I back-tested everything with local historical csv data and the demo account. Then when my code was reliable I moved to the live account.  If you are able to define entry and exit points as well as limit and trailing stops with a system, if it is profitable on paper the only reason why it fails is because of the human factor, a person cannot execute a system perfectly, so there is always a way for a trader to decrease the performance of a system just because that trader cannot cope with the perfect execution of it. If you are able to automate it then your system will gain in performance and at the end in R/R ratio.
You can take any system you want and start your back-test with one simple premise: Whatever you do, make sure that if it goes wrong you can try again. Any risk management technique will translate that sentence into mathematical jargon with hyper complex algorithms, but for me it is literally that: The ability to try again.
That and an automated execution made it to work.
 

[Karma]

4 minutes ago, jlz said:

Short story - I automated everything, I do not trade anything manually. Everything is automatically executed using the rest API. 

Long Story - I started without a plan, looking at 5 minutes charts with a trembling hand clicking on every candle. What could go wrong? I failed miserably.

Then I prepared a system, nothing too spectacular. Any system can work if it is properly executed. I started with an idea and moved to what I have now, changing parameters as I went along just to comply with the target that I wanted to achieve. I back-tested everything with local historical csv data and the demo account. Then when my code was reliable I moved to the live account.  If you are able to define entry and exit points as well as limit and trailing stops with a system, if it is profitable on paper the only reason why it fails is because of the human factor, a person cannot execute a system perfectly, so there is always a way for a trader to decrease the performance of a system just because that trader cannot cope with the perfect execution of it. If you are able to automate it then your system will gain in performance and at the end in R/R ratio.
You can take any system you want and start your back-test with one simple premise: Whatever you do, make sure that if it goes wrong you can try again. Any risk management technique will translate that sentence into mathematical jargon with hyper complex algorithms, but for me it is literally that: The ability to try again.
That and an automated execution made it to work.
 

I been thinking the same when you refer to API are you referring to Application Programming Interface also do you need to know a **** load of computing to work them things. Any chance of reccomendation whats good.

I think your so correct when I look at my performance in demo Im **** hot can go 7 to 10 days with no down days but in the heat of trading I end up letting losses run and taking profits early. Based on my calcuation I thought Dow up, Nasdaq down and Brazil index up and so far all worked according to plan though due to what I can only describe as fear I banked 40 pounds today lol. 

[jlz]

The documentation for the API is at https://labs.ig.com/community

There are a few examples there that can get your started. You are right, you will need to handle it properly and write a lot of code. There are examples on most of the common languages, but if you want your own system you will need to develop it yourself.

I helped others in the past, if you need anything automated I can give you a hand. They got the system automated and I got to see what they were doing, bringing more ideas to my brain. Send me message if you need a hand.

[Karma]

38 minutes ago, jlz said:

Thanks mate - I private messaged you - ill go through link you sent and get back to you. But gosh IG.com dont make it easy do they. Site is gr8 but user friendliness is a wee bit wanting.

 

[RANZ]

3 hours ago, jlz said:

More than -17K in three days.

 

It took me 2 years to recover it  

Hey jlz, do you mind if I ask what is the range of your funds to recover 17K?  

[Kodiak]

Here is one system with 16 losses in a row😁

(on demo)

Time to tune up or terminate😉

[jlz]

32 minutes ago, RANZ said:

Hey jlz, do you mind if I ask what is the range of your funds to recover 17K?  

I continued with the smallest bet size on an index with 30k, to be sure that I was not going to be wiped out again.

Edited August 10, 2020 by jlz

[Caseynotes]

13 -  twice.

See below graph taken from the 'Trade Planing and Testing' thread.

 

 

 

[DavyJones]

14 hours ago, jlz said:

It took me 2 years to recover it  

damm, you have resilience! . Your  misfortune is oddly comforting thought, sorry buddy! 😄

Glad it came good in the end  You know there is something wrong when your mindset is "Oh I only lost £150 today, good day!😅

Why use the API and not PRT

 

[jlz]

1 hour ago, DavyJones said:

damm, you have resilience! . Your  misfortune is oddly comforting thought, sorry buddy! 😄

Glad it came good in the end  You know there is something wrong when your mindset is "Oh I only lost £150 today, good day!😅

Why use the API and not PRT

 

I cannot take much credit on the execution, the bot did it for me.

If there is an API available there is no need to use any third-party software, I can develop my own one. A rest API uses a standard protocol that allows you to use any language of your preference.

Developing your own code means that you can run it anywhere and at any time. Meaning that I can run it on a server 24/7 with proper exception handling, email alerts, disaster recoveries and all the techniques that would make it to run reliably.  I do not execute my trades from my local desktop, they are sent from a service on a linux server in the cloud. I sent 2190 trades in about 3 years so I am not sure how you would do that  with PRT.

PRT is a client application, you have to run it on a local desktop. That will not allow  me to handle it the way I would like to. I would have to run it on laptop on my dodgy virgin-media-piece-of-sh*t connection. There is no way that would work. 

Edited August 11, 2020 by jlz

[dmedin]

Well aren't you a fancy-pants with your C# and your Restful API and your Linux servers in the cloud.

Ever considered a career in IT?

[jlz]

1 minute ago, dmedin said:

Well aren't you a fancy-pants with your C# and your Restful API and your Linux servers in the cloud.

Ever considered a career in IT?

How about Senior Software Architect, my current position?

I am 42 springs buddy, wash your mouth before talking about me.

[u0362565]

2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

13 -  twice.

See below graph taken from the 'Trade Planing and Testing' thread.

 

 

 

Makes for stark reading.  How do you factor in risk/reward into this given it will affect your win rate? And this is data from trading your system presumably?

[Caseynotes]

7 minutes ago, u0362565 said:

Makes for stark reading.  How do you factor in risk/reward into this given it will affect your win rate? And this is data from trading your system presumably?

no, just straight probability stats.

 

[dmedin]

I wonder if they've watched the TradingRush videos, Tom