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HMB

By HMB,
in Indices and Macro Events

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HMB

HMB 101

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Should wait for the close, I guess, but this NDX correction looks much less violent than the moves of major indices in March.  Narrative that it's mainly "froth" being "removed" seems to make sense.  Also the claim that this move includes dealers reducing large delta-hedges for calls sold recently to retail.

Given that, the distance from ATH to low today should be enough... or not?   Long with stop below today's low.

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THT

Remember trading is not 100% certain - we are working on probabilities People massively misuse Indicators - If you use Indicators properly they can serve a few purposes 1 of which is that th

HMB

at this stage, no I would not (more below).  for reasons given above (and others) I do however think this is simply the market segment where the action is for now, in both directions, and hence my cur

Kodiak

Nasdaq monthly 10 year trend channel Aggresive call buyers made it go "thru the roof" Will the parabolic move continue or is it back in the channel again? I would say back in the c

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HMB

HMB 101

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3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I agree, already showing signs of big buying pressure.  What happened in March was totally different.  It's more like what happened in June.

Thank you dmedin

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Kodiak

Kodiak 177

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Nasdaq monthly

10 year trend channel

Aggresive call buyers made it go "thru the roof"

Will the parabolic move continue or is it back in the channel again?

I would say back in the channel, but with all the stimulus and manipulation going on who knows?

As long as the upper trendline holds (support) i suppose buy the dip continue?

Nasdaq 10 year.png

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HMB

HMB 101

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4 minutes ago, Kodiak said:

Will the parabolic move continue or is it back in the channel again?

I would say back in the channel, but with all the stimulus and manipulation going on who knows?

As long as the upper trendline holds (support) i suppose buy the dip continue?

good point!  personally, I believe back into the channel - and possibly towards the lower trend line given rich valuations and said parabolic run - but not immediately.  expecting dip buying first, with return to somewhere between 50 and 80 percent retracement - I may of course be wrong (I usually am...) 

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HMB

HMB 101

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(looking at price action the last 30 minutes, and considering the drawdown before, I'm willing to make a small bet that there might be a bit of a rebound - over the next 30 minutes or so) 

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HMB

HMB 101

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43 minutes ago, HMB said:

(looking at price action the last 30 minutes, and considering the drawdown before, I'm willing to make a small bet that there might be a bit of a rebound - over the next 30 minutes or so) 

finally, through pretty stubborn resistance at around 11260...

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dmedin

dmedin 871

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13 minutes ago, HMB said:

finally, through pretty stubborn resistance at around 11260...

Is it going your way?

It does look like everything (indices, gold, oil etc) is making a strong bounce.

Don't know if it will keep going back up all the way but it's totally different to March when it simply fell and kept falling.

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HMB

HMB 101

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Is it going your way?

It does look like everything (indices, gold, oil etc) is making a strong bounce.

Don't know if it will keep going back up all the way but it's totally different to March when it simply fell and kept falling.

the first long NDX (opened Friday) is deep in the red.  price oscillating around the entry of my 2nd long NDX the last hour.

Tesla is messing it up...  GM partnering with NIkola - Nikola up 48%, Tesla down 17% today last time I checked... 

I agree with you (again), doesn't look like March to me either.

Although I could well imagine an NDX selloff from a higher level later today, or over the coming days, to extend the correction a bit.  I also see a significant probability of a downtrend for a while.

guess we will get a better idea today - was it really mainly Softbank closing long calls, and what will they do now...?  

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HMB

HMB 101

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..raising the stop of the 2nd long - and the risk of getting stop hunted.. -  opening another NDX long with min. size (0.5 GBP/point), same stop (11211) - like the six green 1 min candles in a row...

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HMB

HMB 101

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At least if we close here, it's a proper close to close more than 10% correction.  never trade NDX too aggressively against the overall intraday trend before a STRONG reversal and don't start before 2:30pm NYT...  (think I had that written down somewhere). 

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HMB

HMB 101

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4 minutes ago, HMB said:

You too?

 

10 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Flying by the seat of my pants personally...

or you meant I do in your opinion?  yea. you're absolutely right.  maybe the "outing" here helps me to be more conscious about it.  but I think it's simply weakness of character at this stage.  probably taking a break, quitting smoking, losing weight, getting into a regular exercise routine etc. would be necessary.  I'm kinda exhausted from the frustration, but on the other hand used to it by now.  strange journey...  

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