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HMB

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  • 6 months later...
  • 1 month later...

with CPI out of the way - finally continuing to price in the blowout Q1 earnings...? ...or simply continuing recent yield rise reversal..?  ..was it Minerd who saw the 10 year below 1% in H2? - can't remember right now...

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  • 3 weeks later...

Should be a pullback or a sideways price movement of some degree next few weeks, purely based on the 2RSI being overbought on the WEEKLY chart

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DAILY chart suggests price pullback of some degree based on Indicator alone, as its made a bearish reversal - a nice scenario would be small few days pullback in price of a minor amount, then rally and then you'd have the DAILY RSI in the overbought zone twice whilst the WEEKLY is overbought, that would give rise to a half decent pullback of some degree into July

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Still waiting for the correction - As mentioned above this should be within the next few weeks, seen as we're working off the WEEKLY chart

WEEKLY chart:

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DAILY chart:

RSI is over extended in the OB zone - this does not mean price will fall - BUT at some point the WEEKLY chart is going to correct which should bring a correction on both charts of some degree - obviously the daily chart will register first

Deep corrections open up other opportunities, a minor bull market correction allows you to get in on the trend at cheaper prices

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  • 3 weeks later...

presumably, if someone decided after the morning action to get out of some very large positions successively, and buys a few bits back between sales to keep prices within an acceptable range, charts would look very much like this...: 

1204360580_USTech100_20210719_14_08.png.06193674463193c94197ee9957668913.png

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Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, Kodiak said:

Agree.  Last earnings season didn't lift NDX at all, a small correction came shortly after it was out of the way, followed by a rally - part of the narrative was support for growth stocks by lower discount rates..:

NDX_TLT.thumb.png.902cf19cdd31e40648827eae30fa316c.png

that obviously wasn't dominating enough yesterday to keep NDX in the green - but could well explain its out-performance (like last week).

NDX_NKY_DAX.thumb.png.62105e4c2684ba6a3e999fd45c9a4547.png

..after several hypothesis about bond market action driven by positioning (short squeeze), other technical factors and pricing in/out of policy mistakes had been flowing around since the last dot plot, more recently the moves are frequently attributed to growth worries in mainstream media...

trying to piece these and other mosaic bits together (highly subjectively):  economic growth worries may be priced in sufficiently for now in markets like NKY and Dax (also the SPX drawdown was already larger than the previous one).  NDX may have been held up by the longer (secular) trend and the characteristics of its main members as "new defensives" established since the outbreak.  This view would imply more likely a rebound (following Dax and NKY today).  Earnings season playing out similarly to last time (blowout numbers unable to give much positive impulse) seems unlikely - that would simply be too easy IMHO, plus mentioned yield moves, plus less inflation worries (not least due to recent corrections in  commodities like lumber, oil...) give a very different backdrop...

strong rebound in last half hour of trading yesterday points to BTFP having already started - could quickly lead to FOMO kicking in again...

an alternative view would be that it was simply more idiosyncratic moves (NVIDIA, Moderna, Tesla) providing relative support yesterday

(personally, am currently not trading real money, but in demo and pending social trading account currently positioned for the former) 

guess relevant wildcards are of course neg. earnings surprises and a crypto crash... amongst others

 

Edited by HMB
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FANGs reported last week July '20 and  NQ roared almost 20% in the following 5 weeks  . Outside the bounces of march '20 covid lows and Xmas '18 this aug'21 rally is the best 5 week nasdaq rally since 2009 lows    Markets have no memory so it means little 12 months on   .     

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5 hours ago, HMB said:

if that's not gonna turn into a 200-point min rally into the close, I'll voluntarily buy 0.01 BTC as soon as it becomes eligible for demo accounts...

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Given 3 of the top 5 largest US stocks reported at close some volatility is a given no doubt  

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