NDX

[HMB]

6 minutes ago, HMB said:

(yet...)

..there you go..

[HMB]

Okay Taylor Riggs, what is it this time?  Obviously not earnings - and neither long-term real yield rate of change.

[HMB]

with CPI out of the way - finally continuing to price in the blowout Q1 earnings...? ...or simply continuing recent yield rise reversal..?  ..was it Minerd who saw the 10 year below 1% in H2? - can't remember right now...

 

 

[HMB]

...engineering a Q2 earnings rally in July would probably be easier for WS from somewhat lower levels...:

 

[THT]

Should be a pullback or a sideways price movement of some degree next few weeks, purely based on the 2RSI being overbought on the WEEKLY chart

DAILY chart suggests price pullback of some degree based on Indicator alone, as its made a bearish reversal - a nice scenario would be small few days pullback in price of a minor amount, then rally and then you'd have the DAILY RSI in the overbought zone twice whilst the WEEKLY is overbought, that would give rise to a half decent pullback of some degree into July

[THT]

Still waiting for the correction - As mentioned above this should be within the next few weeks, seen as we're working off the WEEKLY chart

WEEKLY chart:

DAILY chart:

RSI is over extended in the OB zone - this does not mean price will fall - BUT at some point the WEEKLY chart is going to correct which should bring a correction on both charts of some degree - obviously the daily chart will register first

Deep corrections open up other opportunities, a minor bull market correction allows you to get in on the trend at cheaper prices

[HMB]

presumably, if someone decided after the morning action to get out of some very large positions successively, and buys a few bits back between sales to keep prices within an acceptable range, charts would look very much like this...: 

[Ozquant]

Broken short term trend since mid may looking for pullback towards medium term trend  .  FANGs type stocks reporting next week should make things interesting  .   

[Kodiak]

Everybody looking for BTFP🤑

https://twitter.com/johnfcarter/status/1416117371262148609

[HMB]

38 minutes ago, Kodiak said:

Everybody looking for BTFP🤑

https://twitter.com/johnfcarter/status/1416117371262148609

Agree.  Last earnings season didn't lift NDX at all, a small correction came shortly after it was out of the way, followed by a rally - part of the narrative was support for growth stocks by lower discount rates..:

that obviously wasn't dominating enough yesterday to keep NDX in the green - but could well explain its out-performance (like last week).

..after several hypothesis about bond market action driven by positioning (short squeeze), other technical factors and pricing in/out of policy mistakes had been flowing around since the last dot plot, more recently the moves are frequently attributed to growth worries in mainstream media...

trying to piece these and other mosaic bits together (highly subjectively):  economic growth worries may be priced in sufficiently for now in markets like NKY and Dax (also the SPX drawdown was already larger than the previous one).  NDX may have been held up by the longer (secular) trend and the characteristics of its main members as "new defensives" established since the outbreak.  This view would imply more likely a rebound (following Dax and NKY today).  Earnings season playing out similarly to last time (blowout numbers unable to give much positive impulse) seems unlikely - that would simply be too easy IMHO, plus mentioned yield moves, plus less inflation worries (not least due to recent corrections in  commodities like lumber, oil...) give a very different backdrop...

strong rebound in last half hour of trading yesterday points to BTFP having already started - could quickly lead to FOMO kicking in again...

an alternative view would be that it was simply more idiosyncratic moves (NVIDIA, Moderna, Tesla) providing relative support yesterday

(personally, am currently not trading real money, but in demo and pending social trading account currently positioned for the former) 

guess relevant wildcards are of course neg. earnings surprises and a crypto crash... amongst others

 

Edited July 20, 2021 by HMB

[Ozquant]

FANGs reported last week July '20 and  NQ roared almost 20% in the following 5 weeks  . Outside the bounces of march '20 covid lows and Xmas '18 this aug'21 rally is the best 5 week nasdaq rally since 2009 lows    Markets have no memory so it means little 12 months on   .     

[HMB]

if that's not gonna turn into a 200-point min rally into the close, I'll voluntarily buy 0.01 BTC as soon as it becomes eligible for demo accounts...

[Ozquant]

5 hours ago, HMB said:

if that's not gonna turn into a 200-point min rally into the close, I'll voluntarily buy 0.01 BTC as soon as it becomes eligible for demo accounts...

Given 3 of the top 5 largest US stocks reported at close some volatility is a given no doubt  

[HMB]

From BBG (link below):  "But particularly in light of the rising resolve to fight inflation among central bankers, many sensed a change in the air after a year of virtually uninterrupted gains. "

...

"As rough as it got, bargain hunters remained mostly undaunted. Retail day traders, this bull market’s steadfast ally, are again buying the dip, snapping up shares at a clip that according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. was unprecedented. Dip buyers emerged late Friday, sending the S&P 500 up more than 30 points in the final 10 minutes of trading."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-03/two-years-of-market-swagger-go-missing-in-week-of-stock-upheaval?sref=xrmt8Ljy

...would be interested in views regarding if dip-buying will prevail this time eventually, or if the shift in central bank policies is fundamental enough to end the bull...

Personally I consider a Monday NDX rebound more likely than a continued sell-off, I think Santa rally bets will still play a role, long bonds have actually been rising the whole week, which could of course mean pricing in of a policy mistake - but the 2 year also rebounded Friday and is pretty close to where it was just eight days ago, so one could also argue that overall bond markets disagree with the extent to which the hawkish narrative is priced into equities...  if instead Omicron was indeed the driving factor, then I wonder why stay-at-home trades should continue to under-perform, and would argue that potential further supply chain issues could well be priced in by now - with NDX Friday low a bit more than 7% below the intraday ATH in November.

Again, just my personal weighing - looking forward to responses..!

Edited December 4, 2021 by HMB

[Kodiak]

50% correction of the previous wave 

Will it be enough?

[HMB]

Interesting!  great chart.