Jump to content

NDX


HMB

Recommended Posts

  • 6 months later...
  • 1 month later...

with CPI out of the way - finally continuing to price in the blowout Q1 earnings...? ...or simply continuing recent yield rise reversal..?  ..was it Minerd who saw the 10 year below 1% in H2? - can't remember right now...

image.thumb.png.3dc290336bc0d6b11c927924b154a71e.png

 

image.thumb.png.293f56f47872ee378b1cc91f8f6bbdaa.png 

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
  • 3 weeks later...

Should be a pullback or a sideways price movement of some degree next few weeks, purely based on the 2RSI being overbought on the WEEKLY chart

536.thumb.JPG.2cf406a6b688c60c962016f6c936722c.JPG

DAILY chart suggests price pullback of some degree based on Indicator alone, as its made a bearish reversal - a nice scenario would be small few days pullback in price of a minor amount, then rally and then you'd have the DAILY RSI in the overbought zone twice whilst the WEEKLY is overbought, that would give rise to a half decent pullback of some degree into July

537.thumb.JPG.3cf6c010b7fee573db83b64e750ce77f.JPG

  • Like 1
  • Sad 2
Link to comment

Still waiting for the correction - As mentioned above this should be within the next few weeks, seen as we're working off the WEEKLY chart

WEEKLY chart:

550.thumb.JPG.3cad9a385ea882f0db6ab8ba8e75caef.JPG

DAILY chart:

RSI is over extended in the OB zone - this does not mean price will fall - BUT at some point the WEEKLY chart is going to correct which should bring a correction on both charts of some degree - obviously the daily chart will register first

Deep corrections open up other opportunities, a minor bull market correction allows you to get in on the trend at cheaper prices

551.thumb.JPG.d27380856d822c68a2359b7e18494c0f.JPG

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
  • 3 weeks later...

presumably, if someone decided after the morning action to get out of some very large positions successively, and buys a few bits back between sales to keep prices within an acceptable range, charts would look very much like this...: 

1204360580_USTech100_20210719_14_08.png.06193674463193c94197ee9957668913.png

Link to comment
Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, Kodiak said:

Agree.  Last earnings season didn't lift NDX at all, a small correction came shortly after it was out of the way, followed by a rally - part of the narrative was support for growth stocks by lower discount rates..:

NDX_TLT.thumb.png.902cf19cdd31e40648827eae30fa316c.png

that obviously wasn't dominating enough yesterday to keep NDX in the green - but could well explain its out-performance (like last week).

NDX_NKY_DAX.thumb.png.62105e4c2684ba6a3e999fd45c9a4547.png

..after several hypothesis about bond market action driven by positioning (short squeeze), other technical factors and pricing in/out of policy mistakes had been flowing around since the last dot plot, more recently the moves are frequently attributed to growth worries in mainstream media...

trying to piece these and other mosaic bits together (highly subjectively):  economic growth worries may be priced in sufficiently for now in markets like NKY and Dax (also the SPX drawdown was already larger than the previous one).  NDX may have been held up by the longer (secular) trend and the characteristics of its main members as "new defensives" established since the outbreak.  This view would imply more likely a rebound (following Dax and NKY today).  Earnings season playing out similarly to last time (blowout numbers unable to give much positive impulse) seems unlikely - that would simply be too easy IMHO, plus mentioned yield moves, plus less inflation worries (not least due to recent corrections in  commodities like lumber, oil...) give a very different backdrop...

strong rebound in last half hour of trading yesterday points to BTFP having already started - could quickly lead to FOMO kicking in again...

an alternative view would be that it was simply more idiosyncratic moves (NVIDIA, Moderna, Tesla) providing relative support yesterday

(personally, am currently not trading real money, but in demo and pending social trading account currently positioned for the former) 

guess relevant wildcards are of course neg. earnings surprises and a crypto crash... amongst others

 

Edited by HMB
Link to comment

FANGs reported last week July '20 and  NQ roared almost 20% in the following 5 weeks  . Outside the bounces of march '20 covid lows and Xmas '18 this aug'21 rally is the best 5 week nasdaq rally since 2009 lows    Markets have no memory so it means little 12 months on   .     

Link to comment
5 hours ago, HMB said:

if that's not gonna turn into a 200-point min rally into the close, I'll voluntarily buy 0.01 BTC as soon as it becomes eligible for demo accounts...

723372505_USTech100Cash(1)_20210727_14_05.thumb.png.48b7f83ea96998f44e631f57c03aa139.png

Given 3 of the top 5 largest US stocks reported at close some volatility is a given no doubt  

ScreenShot744.jpg

  • Like 1
Link to comment

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      16,009
    • Total Posts
      76,724
    • Total Members
      63,936
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Leonzh365
    Joined 19/09/21 10:23
  • Posts

    • Interesting data from the latest weekly PHE covid report download (as highlighted in the 'UK Vaccination Programme Part 1'. (article linked several posts above)   Attendance to emergency care and deaths from Covid (Delta)   6 months 1 Feb to 29 Aug 2021Unvaxxed     219,716Vaxxed         222,693     (27,993 + 80,877 + 113,823)   So obviously the vaccines do nothing to reduce infection and illness.But when looking at deaths alone the vaxxed are worse off. 68 per cent of covid deaths when including the partially ‘vaccinated’; while the ‘unvaccinated’ made up less than 30 per cent, when the vaxxed are less than 60% of the population.   So the Vaccines don't work they just make things worse. Reminder that when the drug companies said their vaccines had an efficacy of 95% what they meant was the difference between 0.88% (next to nothing) and 0.04% (also next to nothing). But that was against the now extinct Alpha not the now dominant vaccine resistant Delta (and all subsequent variants).   https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1014926/Technical_Briefing_22_21_09_02.pdf
    • The DMA platform is a special download so you would know if you had it. The IG web based platform as used by most clients is as described below.
    • @Caseynotesthanks for the reply. How do I know if I am trading at DMA platform or any other.       
×
×
  • Create New...