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Remember trading is not 100% certain - we are working on probabilities People massively misuse Indicators - If you use Indicators properly they can serve a few purposes 1 of which is that th

at this stage, no I would not (more below).  for reasons given above (and others) I do however think this is simply the market segment where the action is for now, in both directions, and hence my cur

Nasdaq monthly 10 year trend channel Aggresive call buyers made it go "thru the roof" Will the parabolic move continue or is it back in the channel again? I would say back in the c

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Okay Taylor Riggs, what is it this time?  Obviously not earnings - and neither long-term real yield rate of change.

image.thumb.png.6f33f4832b2a6ac53a22fab82be5fdaf.png

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  • 1 month later...

with CPI out of the way - finally continuing to price in the blowout Q1 earnings...? ...or simply continuing recent yield rise reversal..?  ..was it Minerd who saw the 10 year below 1% in H2? - can't remember right now...

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image.thumb.png.293f56f47872ee378b1cc91f8f6bbdaa.png 

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    • It really IS that stupidly simple - the hard part as with lots of methods is how you play it and manage the risk Sometimes though its not the actual, actual low it could be a swing low  A chap from the USA called Walter Bressert (Deceased) back in the 1980's published work on a 20 day cycle in the SP500 along with other things Larry Williams back in the 1980's also published in one of his books on trading a 4 year cycle on the dow/SP500 that goes back 200 years with a highish win rate - Aug-Oct time every 4 years expect a low turn point in the market - 2018 was out by a 2 months - but you can see the cycle right there on the chart below Note - The Dec low was a major Time Cycle expected that overrode the 4 yr cycle, so although it looks to have been a high/failure, the TC due Dec 2018 took precedence Next line to keep an eye out for is Aug-Oct time 2022 Sometimes depending on the market you might have to work to part days which would mean running on intraday timeframes which adds complexity to seeing the cycles - so don't expect to run a 20 day low to low cycle on x market and expect to see it, some markets work off high to high cycles - but for the FTSE100 its a 20 day visible low to low cycle on a daily time frame chart as published Again there's easier things to trade than this - I'm just publishing stuff most people aren't aware of, to show that the markets aren't random beasts that most people think they are - there's an order to them    
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