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HMB

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fake bottoming pattern...  7 green candles in a row till slightly above previous high, with low volume... then sudden reversal...  should have been clear then that something has changed...  (like some large trader switching to whipsawing suckers...) and that this was likely not going anywhere anymore today...:

1130878540_USTech100Cash(1)_20200923_16_36.thumb.png.1ea6164a6f96ed22b31f394d4b176e78.png

 

 

 

 

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short with (dangerously) tight stop - if stop not hit before, review around 11100.  betting on NDX being pulled down a bit by expected retracement of Dax overnight move, plus upper end of recent range should provide some resistance.  (positioned on global equity indices breakout with other trades so this bet on the range holding should have at least some hedging quality (ultra-)short-term - although with the tight stop it's better described as a pretty high-loss-probability gamble...)

 

711251236_USTech100_20200928_00_47.thumb.png.c8576229aa0bc5c41b4b32555eac6f04.png

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2 hours ago, HMB said:

short with (dangerously) tight stop - if stop not hit before, review around 11100.  betting on NDX being pulled down a bit by expected retracement of Dax overnight move, plus upper end of recent range should provide some resistance.  (positioned on global equity indices breakout with other trades so this bet on the range holding should have at least some hedging quality (ultra-)short-term - although with the tight stop it's better described as a pretty high-loss-probability gamble...)

 

711251236_USTech100_20200928_00_47.thumb.png.c8576229aa0bc5c41b4b32555eac6f04.png

 

Well, that looks reasonable.  

It's pure gamble though.  Some would argue that shorting the U.S. indices is inherently dumb because over time they only ever go up.  Even this year, 'the worst EVAR since the Great Depression', they 'only' went down for a few weeks and despite the enormous downward move fully recovered within a few months.  People with money in S&P 500 ETFs are laughing all the way to the bank compared to retail traders.

Also you've got way too much cruft on your charts.  Technical 'analysts' smear their charts with poo to make themselves look clever.  But in reality it's all just useless cr@p.  For example you don't need MFI and volume, because MFI is just volume-weighted RSI.

Edited by dmedin
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thanks dmedin

 

anyone knows what happened here...:

NDX_other_reportable.png.edae6a828cebac08fbb01b2f3aae4b10.png

?

 

if I'm not completely mistaken, this is a net short of almost 43b USD notional - probably largest ever, solely in a category that usually doesn't seem to matter at all (corporate treasuries, central banks, small banks...) (aggregate hedge funds and insdt. asset managers both long...)

http://quiktweet.com/105059

is Softbank in that category..?

 

 

Edited by HMB
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...a lot of indecisiveness around 11350 yesterday (which also had not held pre-market)... then strong up candle (15 min) into the cash close...  a bit back into ETFs after recent outflows..?...  doesn't look like the overnight rise can be considered as particularly sustainable IMHO..  Dax and NKY futures also off the highs...  expecting NDX (future) to approach 11350 soon again..:

 

373903169_USTech100_20200929_02_29.thumb.png.c0a351df12cf9bbcd1d83f6c50f518d8.png   

Edited by HMB
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42 minutes ago, HMB said:

...a lot of indecisiveness around 11350 yesterday (which also had not held pre-market)... then strong up candle (15 min) into the cash close...  a bit back into ETFs after recent outflows..?...  doesn't look like the overnight rise can be considered as particularly sustainable IMHO..  Dax and NKY futures also off the highs...  expecting NDX (future) to approach 11350 soon again..:

 

373903169_USTech100_20200929_02_29.thumb.png.c0a351df12cf9bbcd1d83f6c50f518d8.png   

closed at 11370.5

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19 hours ago, HMB said:

thanks dmedin

 

anyone knows what happened here...:

NDX_other_reportable.png.edae6a828cebac08fbb01b2f3aae4b10.png

?

 

if I'm not completely mistaken, this is a net short of almost 43b USD notional - probably largest ever, solely in a category that usually doesn't seem to matter at all (corporate treasuries, central banks, small banks...) (aggregate hedge funds and insdt. asset managers both long...)

http://quiktweet.com/105059

is Softbank in that category..?

 

 

 

 

ETFs catching up to the correction, possibly.

This is all building up for a huge rally at the end of the year.

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1 minute ago, dmedin said:

ETFs catching up to the correction, possibly.

could be - I would be a bit surprised though, because if ETFs were considered in this category ("Other Reportable"), I would have expected larger numbers earlier as well (below chart with longer history)

NDX_other_reportable_full.thumb.png.5835611b252b632775f6ae8b0c0ad6b2.png

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1 minute ago, dmedin said:

Yes, not too sure about that either.  It's a good find.   Haven't seen anything like it before.

The volume at the top was absolutely gigantic, dwarfing even the volumes at the March/April bottom

NujRglPv

...yes, I looked elsewhere at the COT history since end 1999 - nothing even close to that (neither if you include the standard futures, not only the E-minis).  in the older CFTC classification (commercial vs. non-commercial) you see the non-commercial (i.e. speculative) positioning is the 2nd most net short ever - zerohedge has been reporting about that for some time

...good point on the volume! is that from the exchange?  on IG spreadbetting it looks different

at that time were the rumors about dealers  (un-)hedging options from Softbank and retail traders caused the action...  which OCC data couldn't confirm (see post a while ago) - because dealers' aggregate net volume wasn't that large - it was all in the "Customer" category.

...trying to make sense of these two developments together...  the Other Reportable position is as of 22nd and was built up over four weeks...  so the initial trades could have contributed to the selloff - maybe later the desks in charge of it improved the execution and it slowed down...

still struggling what that could mean for the near future...  tend to agree with your point, that unwind of that position would be a nice way to engineer a rally...  would be quite expensive, though, unless the silently within the boundaries of ineffective laws colluding Wall Street guys get the market to drop first (by triggering all kinds of signals for retail traders and Algos to jump on - think I've heard the 50-day MA is quite popular these days...,  (and Morgan Stanley sees a test of the 200 day MA as possible if I remember correctly...)

...

still more questions than "answers" I mean hypotheses..

 

 

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