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Remember trading is not 100% certain - we are working on probabilities People massively misuse Indicators - If you use Indicators properly they can serve a few purposes 1 of which is that th

at this stage, no I would not (more below).  for reasons given above (and others) I do however think this is simply the market segment where the action is for now, in both directions, and hence my cur

Nasdaq monthly 10 year trend channel Aggresive call buyers made it go "thru the roof" Will the parabolic move continue or is it back in the channel again? I would say back in the c

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Lessons:

every pullback may be a set-up for a short squeeze

Jay trumps all

stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits

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23 hours ago, HMB said:

Apple +6% - which breakthrough are they gonna present tomorrow - the mobile phone..?

They actually did it!  iphone 12 mini - small enough to be considered truly mobile...!   cell phones are becoming handy...!

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and only 12 dollars per month...!  brilliant!  I wonder what they pay the guy who came up with this...  do you get it...?  12 dollars, 12 months in a year, i-phone 12...?  isn't that advanced psychology luring us in here...?

 

about to order 12 pieces.

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can't wait to try out "four times better drop performance" thanks to the new the "Ceramic Shield" - so out of 100 times dropping the phone, it survives four times instead of one...?

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Supposedly Apple sell premium hardware.  Well I got the famous sticky space key on my Macbook Air 2019.  And apparently the onboard T2 security chip has a serious flaw that can't be fixed without replacing the chip itself.  And since the chip is soldered into the motherboard, that means it effectively will never be fixed.

F*k Apple.  And f*k everyone who uses Apple sh!t.  And f*k everyone who buys Apple stock.

Edited by dmedin
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Sorry for bothering with the "post storm" on the rest of the world the last 20 minutes or so.  Just kinda overwhelmed by the realization I may have missed out (just a lil' bit) with a diversified contrarian value approach...  All these dramas in between - GFC, Euro crisis, Arab Spring, Russian invasions, Brexit, Trade Wars, QE, QE, QE, QT, QE, GVC, QQQE....:

28629678_USTech100Cash(1)_20201016_04_43.thumb.png.1753a0e0f51f1270684a4161c0a15a85.png

 

 

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19 minutes ago, HMB said:

Sorry for bothering with the "post storm" on the rest of the world the last 20 minutes or so.  Just kinda overwhelmed by the realization I may have missed out (just a lil' bit) with a diversified contrarian value approach...  All these dramas in between - GFC, Euro crisis, Arab Spring, Russian invasions, Brexit, Trade Wars, QE, QE, QE, QT, QE, GVC, QQQE....:

28629678_USTech100Cash(1)_20201016_04_43.thumb.png.1753a0e0f51f1270684a4161c0a15a85.png

 

 

...looking at this vs. rest of the asset world (see earlier posts in other sections): it seems all that matters in capitalism is change in consumer behavior enabled by technological progress; wars and other destructive episodes cause only temporary shifts; same for global convergence of standards of living - by definition.  indices like NDX (i.e. portfolios with automated replacement of defaulted companies..) that are underweight mature industries (i.e. industries with high level of competition or highly regulated industries like traditional energy, utilities, materials and financials) will always outperform (broader indices) in the long run.   thoughts?

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34 minutes ago, HMB said:

Sorry for bothering with the "post storm" on the rest of the world the last 20 minutes or so.  Just kinda overwhelmed by the realization I may have missed out (just a lil' bit) with a diversified contrarian value approach...  All these dramas in between - GFC, Euro crisis, Arab Spring, Russian invasions, Brexit, Trade Wars, QE, QE, QE, QT, QE, GVC, QQQE....:

28629678_USTech100Cash(1)_20201016_04_43.thumb.png.1753a0e0f51f1270684a4161c0a15a85.png

 

 

 

Dollar cost averaging (as opposed to putting all your money in and doing nothing) helps to mitigate multiple 'flat' years as you so eloquently have been pointing out.  Don't forget reinvested dividends.  But yes, it is the U.S. indices which only ever go up throughout time.  That is because it is the U.S. that is the bastion of Western civilization.  Europe is in stagnation for decades.

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Dollar cost averaging

I've seen studies coming to the conclusion that it doesn't matter much - but like all studies, they are limited.  leverage will likely change everything.  I tend to agree with you, and maybe there is some value one can add with timing - by strict cost averaging or some other approach (I obviously haven't managed to do that, yet).

6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Don't forget reinvested dividends.

yes, think there are also studies pointing to long-term S&P 500 returns basically consisting mostly of dividends.

 

however, I wanted to stress another conclusion, related to your next comment:

7 minutes ago, dmedin said:

But yes, it is the U.S. indices which only ever go up throughout time.  That is because it is the U.S. that is the bastion of Western civilization.

 think my previous post came after yours, so repeating a part here:

10 minutes ago, HMB said:

it seems all that matters in capitalism is change in consumer behavior enabled by technological progress

i.e. as you say "bastion of Western civilization" - because of the strength of the (aggregate) US consumer... but also due to frequent innovation of technologies triggering changes in consumer behavior.

cultural factors may play a role, too - importance of fashion, materialism... etc.  this could be interesting to monitor as well, maybe it changes (history would suggest not...) 

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12 minutes ago, HMB said:

think there are also studies pointing to long-term S&P 500 returns basically consisting mostly of dividends.

sorry this is nonsense of course - long-term average US equity returns, not SPX

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4 hours ago, dmedin said:

it is the U.S. that is the bastion of Western civilization

global_CS_201015.thumb.png.f9811265133b0c8ecac47a14a38455fb.png

...leading (to concentration..) everywhere... even in the boring CS sector - six US companies >30% of global market cap...

(and two of them make identical soft drinks...)

 

global_CS_201015.png

  • Like 1
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trying out third oder pivots as defined by Adam H. Grimes (https://adamhgrimes.com/library/market-structure/)..:  a short entered after it became clear (with the open of the candle starting 4 pm Wednesday) that the Tuesday NQ high was a third order pivot on the one hour chart would be in profit - however, no exit signal, yet, correct me if I'm wrong...:

111698869_USTech100_20201019_03_49.thumb.png.7d4c49ca3a2551ce2442592a6bbb788f.png

black arrows: 1st order "Grimes pivots", blue: 2nd order, yellow: 3rd order (first order pivots only marked if relevant to establish 2nd order pivots)

(maybe this can be fine-tuned by distinguishing by the the extent of pullbacks, or direction vs direction of a higher level trend..)

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"Funds have pulled back from one of the biggest short positions in U.S. tech stocks in over a decade, in a near-record buying spree of Nasdaq futures, CFTC data from last week showed."

...

"The QQQ has reached $144.65 billion in assets under management, a record high, according to data from Lipper."

...

"The ratio of call options relative to put options, a measure of how bullish traders are, has climbed since late September and is close to the peak reached just before the sell-off that month."

...

"Interest in call options for companies such as Apple Inc AAPL.O, Facebook Inc FB.O and Netflix Inc NFLX.O - members of the market-leading group collectively known as FAANG - has especially climbed in recent weeks. Skew, a measure of demand for puts versus calls, is near its lowest levels over the past year for those companies, according to Trade Alert"

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-options-tech/bulls-are-back-in-the-nasdaq-and-options-are-aflutter-idUSKBN2742FJ

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On 19/10/2020 at 03:57, HMB said:

trying out third oder pivots as defined by Adam H. Grimes (https://adamhgrimes.com/library/market-structure/)..:  a short entered after it became clear (with the open of the candle starting 4 pm Wednesday) that the Tuesday NQ high was a third order pivot on the one hour chart would be in profit - however, no exit signal, yet, correct me if I'm wrong...:

111698869_USTech100_20201019_03_49.thumb.png.7d4c49ca3a2551ce2442592a6bbb788f.png

black arrows: 1st order "Grimes pivots", blue: 2nd order, yellow: 3rd order (first order pivots only marked if relevant to establish 2nd order pivots)

(maybe this can be fine-tuned by distinguishing by the the extent of pullbacks, or direction vs direction of a higher level trend..)

with the previous hour's candle completed, Monday's low became a third-order Grimes pivot point - taking this as a signal would have resulted in closing the short 400 points below entry:

1910904792_USTech100_20201020_18_07.thumb.png.cefbf7a8e90569522e413b4c2018ab8f.png

I find this interesting.  of course this a sample of one so absolutely not representative.  and there are probably easier ways to come to the same conclusion - e.g. selling after a pronounced up-move once two lower highs emerge, or breakthrough the approximate neckline of a h&s pattern, and buying once a low held a very close test and a re-test would have lead to the same here...  also kinda would require 24/5 monitoring...

will try to work on a plan addressing these issues 

 

Edited by HMB
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8 hours ago, HMB said:

will try to work on a plan addressing these issues 

Have you thought about asking jlz for help writing an algorithm?  He makes money auto-magically without even looking at charts.

Andrew S is profitable 1700 out of 1900 times and Tom is an unrivalled genius who knows better than anyone.

Seems strange to me that you are not imbibing the milk of the greats.

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NDX vs. SPX 071320 Chart 5

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/when-performance-matters%3A-nasdaq-100-vs.-sp-500-second-quarter-20-2020-07-13

should look similar with GICS - i.e. NDX underweight (vs SPX)to Financials (incl. RE), Energy, Materials and Utilities together roughly 25%... and those went kinda nowhere over the more or less recent past...:

666539272_iSharesUSFinancialsETF_20201022_18_51.thumb.png.e004a82edb961d67d13e723934ea1474.png

529634382_iSharesUSRealEstateETF_20201022_18_54.thumb.png.8b9b552591c91e8611a05b7c2723888d.png

 

362953075_iSharesUSEnergyETF_20201022_18_52.thumb.png.fd9ef39bccdd3460634651ad6cbf9d3e.png

1666763226_iSharesUSUtilitiesETF_20201022_18_53.thumb.png.005529133b762961c994b8d2afdeaf24.png

 

2101247725_MaterialsSelectSectorSPDRFund_20201022_18_51.thumb.png.1401806cc52b84daaad685a23d9cf6c9.png

...of course this is rather superficial, but (together with comparisons posted earlier) suggests really exactly two - closely linked - segments in global asset markets have been trending (up) recent years:  US large cap tech and consumer (incl. Healthcare) stocks.   ...apparently a significant share of all the money printed globally this period  seems to eventually somehow have found its way into these highly concentrated segments...

iShares US Real Estate ETF_20201022_18.54.png

Edited by HMB
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Based on the daily picture, would you only look for shorts?  (Until the daily picture looks like it has turned a corner)

Since 'intra-day penetrations (of support levels) are not as significant as daily closes below those support levels' 🤔🤪🧐

Those long legs tell me that there's a lot of buying pressure and the selling momentum is drying up.

 

US Tech 100_20201023_07.29.png

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4 hours ago, dmedin said:

would you only look for shorts?

at this stage, no I would not (more below).  for reasons given above (and others) I do however think this is simply the market segment where the action is for now, in both directions, and hence my current focus

 

4 hours ago, dmedin said:

Those long legs tell me that there's a lot of buying pressure and the selling momentum is drying up.

yes, reading it the same.

there are a few major issues pending:  antitrust suit, election...  which may be holding NDX down for now. Valuations are ginormous, correction risk is massive at any point IMHO.  https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NDAQ/nasdaq/price-sales 

Nevertheless,  I still think expectations of further changing consumer behavior and growth acceleration in some segments due to  technology convergence constitute a strong fundamental trend that may cause any significant pullback to be bought quickly as discussed earlier:

...also, as long as US large cap tech/tech-enabled consumer/communication products/services companies keep investing in respective inventions (and buying up inventors early...), long NDX "hedges" you against missing out on profiting from innovation (if you share that "concern")...

counter-arguments could be that technology progress and other major trends lead also to significant growth potential in other areas, where valuations are not that high...  e.g. Jeremy Rifkin points to the potentially changing business model of utilities (think he mentioned explicitly Germany) in his vision of the "sharing economy" - think I posted this 2018 link earlier...: 

...sorry, probably a bit digressing here... in summary, I'd say the banks and others will need volatility in the current flat curve environment...  at times it may seem relatively attractive for them to silently collude and cause a bit of a NDX panic for a while (till M&A/IPO profits seem in danger...), but I don't argue for reverting of valuations to any kind of a historical or broader cross-sectional mean anymore...  however I'm probably also biased after having lost big and consistently with US large cap shorts since 2016... as @Kodiak pointed out in the thread linked to vabove - election shouldn't be forgotten...

..what I'm also still trying to make up my mind with if the role of money in this world has permanently changed in a way that also makes traditional valuation ratios to be looked at differently... any veiws on that? 

sorry digressing again from your question...  best summary I can come up with...:  I HAVE NO IDEA, ...still would rather look for shorts elsewhere - of course I've been repeatedly an incredibly reliable counter-indicator, though..

Edited by HMB
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...looks almost like they found a way to cheat the algos...:  buy the dip, see if there's a rebound, and if yes, come out with a no-deal-yet comment, to buy more after the subsequent dip...:

1868453471_USTech100_20201023_15_50.thumb.png.07b1ee453208b3df92a81639332a9bf4.png

 

Edited by HMB
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