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...zero hedge calls it a short squeeze...  volume looks interesting... is that just IG volume...?  maybe a representative sample..?

 

108300210_USTech100_20201007_16_10.thumb.png.8d314284c699a110e4701177805327f2.png

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time to take a break, I guess - as the market doesn't give me one...

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Lessons:

every pullback may be a set-up for a short squeeze

Jay trumps all

stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits stick to daily limits

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Apple +6% - which breakthrough are they gonna present tomorrow - the mobile phone..?

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23 hours ago, HMB said:

Apple +6% - which breakthrough are they gonna present tomorrow - the mobile phone..?

They actually did it!  iphone 12 mini - small enough to be considered truly mobile...!   cell phones are becoming handy...!

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and only 12 dollars per month...!  brilliant!  I wonder what they pay the guy who came up with this...  do you get it...?  12 dollars, 12 months in a year, i-phone 12...?  isn't that advanced psychology luring us in here...?

 

about to order 12 pieces.

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Cook:  "people love how their iphones connect them in personal ways"...  yea, by their heads bumping together while they're staring on their i-phones while walking

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...**** I'm really listening to this...  Siri:  what to do with my life..?

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can't wait to try out "four times better drop performance" thanks to the new the "Ceramic Shield" - so out of 100 times dropping the phone, it survives four times instead of one...?

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Supposedly Apple sell premium hardware.  Well I got the famous sticky space key on my Macbook Air 2019.  And apparently the onboard T2 security chip has a serious flaw that can't be fixed without replacing the chip itself.  And since the chip is soldered into the motherboard, that means it effectively will never be fixed.

F*k Apple.  And f*k everyone who uses Apple sh!t.  And f*k everyone who buys Apple stock.

Edited by dmedin

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looks like levels significantly above range which was recently left successfully defended...:

 

198840294_USTech100Cash(1)_20201015_15_18.thumb.png.c60422fae3d6b6fa86c793543f9a73e6.png 

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Sorry for bothering with the "post storm" on the rest of the world the last 20 minutes or so.  Just kinda overwhelmed by the realization I may have missed out (just a lil' bit) with a diversified contrarian value approach...  All these dramas in between - GFC, Euro crisis, Arab Spring, Russian invasions, Brexit, Trade Wars, QE, QE, QE, QT, QE, GVC, QQQE....:

28629678_USTech100Cash(1)_20201016_04_43.thumb.png.1753a0e0f51f1270684a4161c0a15a85.png

 

 

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19 minutes ago, HMB said:

Sorry for bothering with the "post storm" on the rest of the world the last 20 minutes or so.  Just kinda overwhelmed by the realization I may have missed out (just a lil' bit) with a diversified contrarian value approach...  All these dramas in between - GFC, Euro crisis, Arab Spring, Russian invasions, Brexit, Trade Wars, QE, QE, QE, QT, QE, GVC, QQQE....:

28629678_USTech100Cash(1)_20201016_04_43.thumb.png.1753a0e0f51f1270684a4161c0a15a85.png

 

 

...looking at this vs. rest of the asset world (see earlier posts in other sections): it seems all that matters in capitalism is change in consumer behavior enabled by technological progress; wars and other destructive episodes cause only temporary shifts; same for global convergence of standards of living - by definition.  indices like NDX (i.e. portfolios with automated replacement of defaulted companies..) that are underweight mature industries (i.e. industries with high level of competition or highly regulated industries like traditional energy, utilities, materials and financials) will always outperform (broader indices) in the long run.   thoughts?

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34 minutes ago, HMB said:

Sorry for bothering with the "post storm" on the rest of the world the last 20 minutes or so.  Just kinda overwhelmed by the realization I may have missed out (just a lil' bit) with a diversified contrarian value approach...  All these dramas in between - GFC, Euro crisis, Arab Spring, Russian invasions, Brexit, Trade Wars, QE, QE, QE, QT, QE, GVC, QQQE....:

28629678_USTech100Cash(1)_20201016_04_43.thumb.png.1753a0e0f51f1270684a4161c0a15a85.png

 

 

 

Dollar cost averaging (as opposed to putting all your money in and doing nothing) helps to mitigate multiple 'flat' years as you so eloquently have been pointing out.  Don't forget reinvested dividends.  But yes, it is the U.S. indices which only ever go up throughout time.  That is because it is the U.S. that is the bastion of Western civilization.  Europe is in stagnation for decades.

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Dollar cost averaging

I've seen studies coming to the conclusion that it doesn't matter much - but like all studies, they are limited.  leverage will likely change everything.  I tend to agree with you, and maybe there is some value one can add with timing - by strict cost averaging or some other approach (I obviously haven't managed to do that, yet).

6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Don't forget reinvested dividends.

yes, think there are also studies pointing to long-term S&P 500 returns basically consisting mostly of dividends.

 

however, I wanted to stress another conclusion, related to your next comment:

7 minutes ago, dmedin said:

But yes, it is the U.S. indices which only ever go up throughout time.  That is because it is the U.S. that is the bastion of Western civilization.

 think my previous post came after yours, so repeating a part here:

10 minutes ago, HMB said:

it seems all that matters in capitalism is change in consumer behavior enabled by technological progress

i.e. as you say "bastion of Western civilization" - because of the strength of the (aggregate) US consumer... but also due to frequent innovation of technologies triggering changes in consumer behavior.

cultural factors may play a role, too - importance of fashion, materialism... etc.  this could be interesting to monitor as well, maybe it changes (history would suggest not...) 

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12 minutes ago, HMB said:

think there are also studies pointing to long-term S&P 500 returns basically consisting mostly of dividends.

sorry this is nonsense of course - long-term average US equity returns, not SPX

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4 hours ago, dmedin said:

it is the U.S. that is the bastion of Western civilization

global_CS_201015.thumb.png.f9811265133b0c8ecac47a14a38455fb.png

...leading (to concentration..) everywhere... even in the boring CS sector - six US companies >30% of global market cap...

(and two of them make identical soft drinks...)

 

global_CS_201015.png

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trying out third oder pivots as defined by Adam H. Grimes (https://adamhgrimes.com/library/market-structure/)..:  a short entered after it became clear (with the open of the candle starting 4 pm Wednesday) that the Tuesday NQ high was a third order pivot on the one hour chart would be in profit - however, no exit signal, yet, correct me if I'm wrong...:

111698869_USTech100_20201019_03_49.thumb.png.7d4c49ca3a2551ce2442592a6bbb788f.png

black arrows: 1st order "Grimes pivots", blue: 2nd order, yellow: 3rd order (first order pivots only marked if relevant to establish 2nd order pivots)

(maybe this can be fine-tuned by distinguishing by the the extent of pullbacks, or direction vs direction of a higher level trend..)

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"Funds have pulled back from one of the biggest short positions in U.S. tech stocks in over a decade, in a near-record buying spree of Nasdaq futures, CFTC data from last week showed."

...

"The QQQ has reached $144.65 billion in assets under management, a record high, according to data from Lipper."

...

"The ratio of call options relative to put options, a measure of how bullish traders are, has climbed since late September and is close to the peak reached just before the sell-off that month."

...

"Interest in call options for companies such as Apple Inc AAPL.O, Facebook Inc FB.O and Netflix Inc NFLX.O - members of the market-leading group collectively known as FAANG - has especially climbed in recent weeks. Skew, a measure of demand for puts versus calls, is near its lowest levels over the past year for those companies, according to Trade Alert"

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-options-tech/bulls-are-back-in-the-nasdaq-and-options-are-aflutter-idUSKBN2742FJ

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