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"It seems that the ECB wants to talk the EUR exchange rates down. This exchange rate control is politically dangerous and economically damaging - and a heavy burden for the euro." (U. Leuchtman, Commerzbank FX Research, on LinkedIn)

(Leuchtman's  interpretation of Lane's statement "The EUR-USD rate does matter [and] is endogenous to monetary policy") 

EURUSD had  a good run for six weeks or so, probably given shrinking interest rate differential, maybe also reduced EUR re-denomination risk since common Eurozone debt issuance deal, and likely also due to relatively larger Fed asset purchase and lending programs

 

currently (only) considering small short EURUSD  

 

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I disagree with people who base their decisions on 'fundamentals' and 'news'.

Look at the chart.  Is it in a downtrend?   Sell the rally.  Is it in an uptrend?  Buy the dip.

Don't listen to any of these c&nts who get paid by the word.  And remember, by the time 'news' filters its way down to you, all the 'smart money' has already 'been there and done that'.

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I see you're point, I think you're probably right.  I do however still believe that news is not necessarily immediately priced in - I'll not be the first to get it, yes.

something must cause trends to end, in particular given the trend usually gets supported by dip-buying or rally-selling. 

Now of course there is likely a very low probability that I'll be able to spot that, and maybe it's wiser to never try - will think about that once more.... (so for now the emphasis above stays on the "(only) considering")... 

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