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HMB

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"It seems that the ECB wants to talk the EUR exchange rates down. This exchange rate control is politically dangerous and economically damaging - and a heavy burden for the euro." (U. Leuchtman, Commerzbank FX Research, on LinkedIn)

(Leuchtman's  interpretation of Lane's statement "The EUR-USD rate does matter [and] is endogenous to monetary policy") 

EURUSD had  a good run for six weeks or so, probably given shrinking interest rate differential, maybe also reduced EUR re-denomination risk since common Eurozone debt issuance deal, and likely also due to relatively larger Fed asset purchase and lending programs

 

currently (only) considering small short EURUSD  

 

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I disagree with people who base their decisions on 'fundamentals' and 'news'.

Look at the chart.  Is it in a downtrend?   Sell the rally.  Is it in an uptrend?  Buy the dip.

Don't listen to any of these c&nts who get paid by the word.  And remember, by the time 'news' filters its way down to you, all the 'smart money' has already 'been there and done that'.

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I see you're point, I think you're probably right.  I do however still believe that news is not necessarily immediately priced in - I'll not be the first to get it, yes.

something must cause trends to end, in particular given the trend usually gets supported by dip-buying or rally-selling. 

Now of course there is likely a very low probability that I'll be able to spot that, and maybe it's wiser to never try - will think about that once more.... (so for now the emphasis above stays on the "(only) considering")... 

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  • 2 weeks later...
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Close to entering the range of the prior major swing low point

Will the market find support at this double bottom?

Indicators on the higher time frame WEEKLY chart and the daily chart are BOTH <25% and technically "oversold"

All I know is the market is in a zone for a possible long reversal, watching for a set-up - It might happen, it might not, no-one knows for certain here, we could be going lower, we could be reversing to form a triple top, then it could reverse to form a triple bottom range zone etc - Trade what you see not think though, never guess (that does not mean you'll always be 100% correct though! - as sometimes we are simply right but early)

No-One needs telling that a double bottom reversal here with a target of the prior swing high represents a huge R profit if it comes off

Often these swing highs and lows are magnets for future swings

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