DAX

[dmedin]

It's impossible not to lose money if you sit down in front of charts all day.  It is impossible not to overtrade.  Who can sit in front of their charts for an entire day and not put a single trade on?

[HMB]

2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

It's impossible not to lose money if you sit down in front of charts all day.  It is impossible not to overtrade.  Who can sit in front of their charts for an entire day and not put a single trade on?

I agree.  it's probably worth scheduling a fixed two hour time slot or so, even if that avoids missing some opportunities - what do you think?

[Caseynotes]

1 hour ago, HMB said:

ok, that's it.  went short NDX after open, made 50 quid, then lost it by going long with weak support - didn't take a break to think but tried to make it back immediately with larger bets with nano stop distances - like out of my mind -  took minutes to reduce my account from 300 to 13.  then one last short, stop hit, account size moved to 0.01.  incredibly tempted to refund.  but will at least avoid that.  guess I need an emergency break.  another instant of the same lesson I just won't learn: avoid trading in a state of complete mental unpreparedness..! you probably won't hear from me for a while.    

this is just descending into coin tossing. you need a rules based system.

52 minutes ago, HMB said:

this would probably help to avoid reacting too quickly, yes.

a rules based system would prevent you from reacting too quickly.

23 minutes ago, dmedin said:

It's impossible not to lose money if you sit down in front of charts all day.  It is impossible not to overtrade.  Who can sit in front of their charts for an entire day and not put a single trade on?

I can, because I have a rules based system 👀

[AndrewS]

Hello, this sort of thing has happened to many of us. My suggestion is that you read this thread from the opening post onwards and review the matter. For what it is worth this is what my trading rules look like.

Max Position Size AUD

1. Trade intraday primarily (unless carrying over is in the original decision)

2. Trade Retracements/  Bounces  on multiple time frames

3. Favoured Time 4PM to 4AM

4. Set price alarms

5. IndiciesMainLong for trade setups

6. IndiciesMainShort for trading

7. Check 1 min chart when high velocity

 

 

[dmedin]

10 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

 

I can, because I have a rules based system 👀

 

Trading off pivots isn't rule based.  I looked at the pivots on 15 minute chart and it's a massive f*king clusterf*k of the most epic proportions.

But we all know that you use 'Renko' and adaptive support/resistance zones for your trading

[Caseynotes]

Just now, dmedin said:

 

Trading off pivots isn't rule based.  I looked at the pivots on 15 minute chart and it's a massive f*king clusterf*k of the most epic proportions.

But we all know that you use 'Renko' and adaptive support/resistance zones for your trading

the only rule I have concerning pivots is never enter a trade when price is going into them, only going away from them. They are just levels where orders get stacked as is seen by the frequency they are respected where price will either reverse or charge through with force.

[dmedin]

2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

the only rule I have concerning pivots is never enter a trade when price is going into them, only going away from them. They are just levels where orders get stacked as is seen by the frequency they are respected where price will either reverse or charge through with force.

That's true.

But as I've said a few times, the system I backtested didn't have pivots (data going back one year or more) and also I never took into consideration news or events.  So in theory the system I'm using should make money over the long run even if I turn pivots off and trade oblivious to what news is released on the day.

But when I actually sit down to trade, I am always looking at where the pivots are doing.

[Caseynotes]

7 minutes ago, dmedin said:

That's true.

But as I've said a few times, the system I backtested didn't have pivots (data going back one year or more) and also I never took into consideration news or events.  So in theory the system I'm using should make money over the long run even if I turn pivots off and trade oblivious to what news is released on the day.

But when I actually sit down to trade, I am always looking at where the pivots are doing.

good, if your system is saying take a trade as price is entering a strong S/R level be afraid, be very afraid.

backtesting comes before forward testing, it can't replace it, you will always get different results between backtest, forward demo testing, trading min position size live, and trading large size live.

[dmedin]

1 minute ago, Caseynotes said:

good, if your system is saying take a trade as price is entering a strong S/R level be afraid, be very afraid.

backtesting comes before forward testing, it can't replace it, you will always get different results between backtest, forward demo testing, trading min position size live, and trading large size live.

 

No?  When backtesting I drew NO support/resistance lines, didn't have pivots, didn't use Fibonacci - and it still wins about 50% of the time.

So when I trade using Pivots or the rest, I am automatically not trading the system  

[dmedin]

5 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

backtesting comes before forward testing, it can't replace it, you will always get different results between backtest, forward demo testing, trading min position size live, and trading large size live.

Well if the results are too different then it's difficult to see what backtesting achieves, except that it gives you the confidence to stick to your system.

[Caseynotes]

6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

No?  When backtesting I drew NO support/resistance lines, didn't have pivots, didn't use Fibonacci - and it still wins about 50% of the time.

So when I trade using Pivots or the rest, I am automatically not trading the system  

and i'm saying your backtest only leads you on to a forward demo test and you will not get the same result, nor when you move onto live.

1 minute ago, dmedin said:

Well if the results are too different then it's difficult to see what backtesting achieves, except that it gives you the confidence to stick to your system.

until you have successfully completed the cycle you don't have a system.

[dmedin]

2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

and i'm saying your backtest only leads you on to a forward demo test and you will not get the same result, nor when you move onto live.

until you have successfully completed the cycle you don't have a system.

 

Well, I'm using it now.  And now in demo either  

[dmedin]

As for a one minute chart, I wouldn't even know where to begin.  As far as I'm concerned it's untradeable with any indicator.  I just don't 'see' it.

[dmedin]

Price action is clear as day on the 10 second chart!

 

[HMB]

1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

this is just descending into coin tossing. you need a rules based system.

a rules based system would prevent you from reacting too quickly.

I can, because I have a rules based system 👀

Loss limits, rules, a rule-based system work when you apply them/adhere to them.  My problem is I don't.  To fix that I need to focus more on mental preparation.  I had a few months when it worked.  I sticked to my limits.  The reason I did was, because I had prepared mentally for encountering losses and when they came I was prepared for corresponding emotions and was able to call it a day.  What I had not prepared so well for, was to make some gains surprisingly fast, and then loose them by making a stupid mistake.  It feels different.  That may sound funny, but it's the best explanation I can come up with for why I wasn't able to stick to my loss limit today.  Conclusion is I need to be more comprehensive, more creative in my mental preparation - also imagine scenarios  where I loose gains I just made, which mean a lot to me because my performance was so poor and I'm craving for a success experience, and then I take this way from me with a stupid error.  I need to be able to stop then, too.

[HMB]

1 hour ago, AndrewS said:

Hello, this sort of thing has happened to many of us. My suggestion is that you read this thread from the opening post onwards and review the matter. For what it is worth this is what my trading rules look like.

Max Position Size AUD

1. Trade intraday primarily (unless carrying over is in the original decision)

2. Trade Retracements/  Bounces  on multiple time frames

3. Favoured Time 4PM to 4AM

4. Set price alarms

5. IndiciesMainLong for trade setups

6. IndiciesMainShort for trading

7. Check 1 min chart when high velocity

 

 

Many thanks Andrew, I will review the thread.  Your trading plan makes sense to me - I think something similar can work for me as well.  Much appreciated 

[HMB]

59 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Price action is clear as day on the 10 second chart!

 

good point...

[dmedin]

5 minutes ago, HMB said:

Loss limits, rules, a rule-based system work when you apply them/adhere to them.  My problem is I don't.  To fix that I need to focus more on mental preparation.  I had a few months when it worked.  I sticked to my limits.  The reason I did was, because I had prepared mentally for encountering losses and when they came I was prepared for corresponding emotions and was able to call it a day.  What I had not prepared so well for, was to make some gains surprisingly fast, and then loose them by making a stupid mistake.  It feels different.  That may sound funny, but it's the best explanation I can come up with for why I wasn't able to stick to my loss limit today.  Conclusion is I need to be more comprehensive, more creative in my mental preparation - also imagine scenarios  where I loose gains I just made, which mean a lot to me because my performance was so poor and I'm craving for a success experience, and then I take this way from me with a stupid error.  I need to be able to stop then, too.

 

Don't forget what Casey said.  Expect different results when you put your system into practice.  So really, whether you have a system or not doesn't matter unless you find a way to make money.   

[dmedin]

Also don't forget that 76% or more lose money, and that nobody will ever show you their trades (although I do, possibly because I am the only foolish one), and that the whole business is incredibly painful and ultimately futile compared to putting money into an S&P 500 ETF every month  

[dmedin]

23 minutes ago, HMB said:

Many thanks Andrew, I will review the thread.  Your trading plan makes sense to me - I think something similar can work for me as well.  Much appreciated 

 

Are you taking advice from people who are making money from trading?

Where's the evidence that they are making money from trading their own money?

[HMB]

1 minute ago, dmedin said:

 

Are you taking advice from people who are making money from trading?

Where's the evidence that they are making money from trading their own money?

Well, someone's gotta have the money formerly owned by me...

[dmedin]

14 minutes ago, HMB said:

Well, someone's gotta have the money formerly owned by me...

 

The best advice I could give you or anyone who thinks about trading is save your money, pay off the mortgage and contribute towards your SIPP for tax relief instead.

Anyone who gives you advice otherwise is not thinking about your best interests.  Your chances of making consistent profits as a trader are something in the order of one in 100.

[Caseynotes]

29 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

Don't forget what Casey said.  Expect different results when you put your system into practice.  So really, whether you have a system or not doesn't matter unless you find a way to make money.   

you are another one who keeps pretending they work, you've said you've read the trade testing and planning thread but if you had you'd know.

the way to find a system that actually makes money is to go through the steps.

Backtest a system, if it works try it on forward demo testing and there you will probably find you bs'ed yourself on the backtest. 

If it survives the demo test trial it live with min position size, there you will probably find you bs'ed yourself on the demo compared to using real money.

If it survives the min pos'n size testing trial it on a real pos'n size, there you will probably find you bs'ed yourself on the min size trades.

[Caseynotes]

51 minutes ago, HMB said:

Loss limits, rules, a rule-based system work when you apply them/adhere to them.  My problem is I don't.  To fix that I need to focus more on mental preparation.  I had a few months when it worked.  I sticked to my limits.  The reason I did was, because I had prepared mentally for encountering losses and when they came I was prepared for corresponding emotions and was able to call it a day.  What I had not prepared so well for, was to make some gains surprisingly fast, and then loose them by making a stupid mistake.  It feels different.  That may sound funny, but it's the best explanation I can come up with for why I wasn't able to stick to my loss limit today.  Conclusion is I need to be more comprehensive, more creative in my mental preparation - also imagine scenarios  where I loose gains I just made, which mean a lot to me because my performance was so poor and I'm craving for a success experience, and then I take this way from me with a stupid error.  I need to be able to stop then, too.

you would only not stick to the rules if they weren't really working, if they were you would stick to them like glue.

test your rules properly to have any confidence in them.

[HMB]

9 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

you would only not stick to the rules if they weren't really working, if they were you would stick to them like glue.

test your rules properly to have any confidence in them.

I'm not a purely technical trader.  I don't have the skill set to develop a rule based system.  And I want to try something else.  I still have confidence in my trade ideas - but I horribly mess up the execution and don't stick to my risk management plan.  Due to lack of effective emotion management.  Which I have to solve with mental preparation.  

Edited September 11, 2020 by HMB

[HMB]

5 minutes ago, HMB said:

mental preparation.  

..in a broad sense, including lifestyle adjustments etc.

[Caseynotes]

12 minutes ago, HMB said:

I'm not a technical trader.  I don't have the skill set to develop a rule based system.

it takes time but it doesn't cost money and it's a lot easier than trying to rationalise the market.

First you need to describe yourself, start from trade planning and testing thread OP.

importantly preferred markets and time frames, often these will depend on amount of time and times of day you can devote to charts.

 

 

Edited September 11, 2020 by Caseynotes

[HMB]

8 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

it takes time but it doesn't cost money and it's a lot easier than trying to rationalise the market.

First you need to describe yourself, start from trade planning and testing thread OP.

importantly preferred markets and time frames, often these will depend on amount of time and times of day you can devote to charts.

 

 

Okay.  However I don't want to trade with a technical rules-based system as you define it.  It's not were I see myself ever getting an edge.  I won't be able to successfully force myself to try something I am convinced I will not succeed in.  This is for others.  I got different strengths - however for now I must continue to focus on fixing the weaknesses. 

Edited September 11, 2020 by HMB

[dmedin]

34 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

you are another one who keeps pretending they work, you've said you've read the trade testing and planning thread but if you had you'd know.

the way to find a system that actually makes money is to go through the steps.

Backtest a system, if it works try it on forward demo testing and there you will probably find you bs'ed yourself on the backtest. 

If it survives the demo test trial it live with min position size, there you will probably find you bs'ed yourself on the demo compared to using real money.

If it survives the min pos'n size testing trial it on a real pos'n size, there you will probably find you bs'ed yourself on the min size trades.

 

No, because you just said that trading in demo and in live produces different results.

Different results means you don't have a statistically probable outcome (edge).

So there's no point

 

[AndrewS]

54 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

Are you taking advice from people who are making money from trading?

Where's the evidence that they are making money from trading their own money?

Don’t you review your trades?

3 hours ago, AndrewS said:

Hello, this sort of thing has happened to many of us. My suggestion is that you read this thread from the opening post onwards and review the matter. For what it is worth this is what my trading rules look like.