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good luck though that's a pretty strong run back up to the pivot, wouldn't be willing to bet against it myself. certainly if the Dow heads lower dax likely to follow.

Look at how the Fibs line up with monthly Pivots here ūü§ď ¬†

mate, your weakness is you've got a gambling addiction, the only way out is a rules based system that you can stick with because testing proves it works or just giving up and seeking professional help

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9 minutes ago, HMB said:

Okay.  However I don't want to trade with a technical rules-based system as you define it.  It's not were I see myself ever getting an edge.  I won't be able to successfully force myself to try something I am convinced I will not succeed in.  This is for others.  I got different strengths - however for now I must continue to focus on fixing the weaknesses. 

mate, your weakness is you've got a gambling addiction, the only way out is a rules based system that you can stick with because testing proves it works or just giving up and seeking professional help.

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8 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

No, because you just said that trading in demo and in live produces different results.

Different results means you don't have a statistically probable outcome (edge).

So there's no point :D

 

er, perhaps you should read it again.

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1 minute ago, Caseynotes said:

mate, your weakness is you've got a gambling addiction, the only way out is a rules based system that you can stick with because testing proves it works or just giving up and seeking professional help.

I agree on the gambling addiction part.  highly respecting your courage stating that clearly - thanks.  seeking professional help - I have some experience with that:  giving up was not the advice I got there, but maybe that would change after additional counseling.  For the reasons described, I don't believe a rule-based system is the way out for me.  Fixing mental issues to be able to stick to a risk management plan is.

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7 minutes ago, HMB said:

I agree on the gambling addiction part.  highly respecting your courage stating that clearly - thanks.  seeking professional help - I have some experience with that:  giving up was not the advice I got there, but maybe that would change after additional counseling.  For the reasons described, I don't believe a rule-based system is the way out for me.  Fixing mental issues to be able to stick to a risk management plan is.

good and pleased for you and hope goes well, 'mental issues' is being a bit harsh on yourself, we've all diced with gambling or drug or drink or whatever potential addictions, part of living a life really but you must first of all stop the reactionary coin flip revenge/desperate hope trades. Then set about organising your 'risk management' rules. 

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dmedin, Caseynotes:  surely you remember Petty Officer Billy Sunday's (DeNiro, Men of Honor) advice on drinking:   

"A Chief Petty Officer shall not drink. However, if he should drink he shall not get drunk. If he should get drunk, he shall not stagger. And if he should stagger, he shall not fall. And if he should fall, he will fall in such a manner as to cover up his rank so that passerbyers will think he is an officer."

 

I think using that as a template I can reconcile your differing advice with my own perspective and start a set of trading rules:

 

1. A trader shall not trade.

 

2.  However, if he should trade, he shall trade only with a back-, demo- and mini-size tested technical rule-based system.

 

3.  If he should trade without a  back-, demo- and mini-size tested technical rule-based system, he shall be mentally well prepared to lose....

 

;

 

 

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Just now, Caseynotes said:

good and pleased for you and hope goes well, 'mental issues' is being a bit harsh on yourself, we've all diced with gambling or drug or drink or whatever potential addictions, part of living a life really but you must first of all stop the reactionary coin flip revenge/desperate hope trades. Then set about organising your 'risk management' rules. 

Agree.  Thank you very much indeed for your advice - I'm learning loads here in these forums thanks to helpful people like yourself.  And the opportunity to communicate is itself a great tool to become better aware of and deal with "improvement potential" (not to say mental issues - but I meant that quite neutral).   

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3 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

er, perhaps you should read it again.

 

Totally demoralized now.

I just cannot stand days and days of whipsaws and I can't trade lower time frames, yet you have to look at charts all day if you don't want to miss opportunities.

Today I do feel that it is not worth the hassle.

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7 hours ago, dmedin said:

 

 

Totally demoralized now.

I just cannot stand days and days of whipsaws and I can't trade lower time frames, yet you have to look at charts all day if you don't want to miss opportunities.

Today I do feel that it is not worth the hassle.

"There are times when money can be made investing and speculating in stocks, but money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year.  Only the foolhardy will try it.  It just is not in the cards and cannot be done." Jesse Livermore, How to Trade In Stocks, Chapter 1, The Challenge of Speculation 

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2 hours ago, HMB said:

"There are times when money can be made investing and speculating in stocks, but money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year.  Only the foolhardy will try it.  It just is not in the cards and cannot be done." Jesse Livermore, How to Trade In Stocks, Chapter 1, The Challenge of Speculation 

Some people do have consistency, but they are better prepared than you and dmedin.

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On 12/09/2020 at 07:40, HMB said:

"There are times when money can be made investing and speculating in stocks, but money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year.  Only the foolhardy will try it.  It just is not in the cards and cannot be done." Jesse Livermore, How to Trade In Stocks, Chapter 1, The Challenge of Speculation 

That's right, and if you waste your life in front of charts not only will you lose money but you will become unemployable elsewhere :)

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On 11/09/2020 at 20:54, HMB said:

I agree on the gambling addiction part.  highly respecting your courage stating that clearly - thanks.  seeking professional help - I have some experience with that:  giving up was not the advice I got there, but maybe that would change after additional counseling.  For the reasons described, I don't believe a rule-based system is the way out for me.  Fixing mental issues to be able to stick to a risk management plan is.

 

Here's a little more advice, in case you are able to bear it.

Don't fall for people who goad you on.  They typically will not reveal their secrets, for therein lies nothing to reveal, but rather feed you little nuggets of 'wisdom' to keep you going.

Retail trading needs a constant fresh supply of idiots.  These people are vampires.  They have nothing but platitudes to fall back on.  :D 

Edited by dmedin
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On 12/09/2020 at 07:40, HMB said:

"There are times when money can be made investing and speculating in stocks, but money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year.  Only the foolhardy will try it.  It just is not in the cards and cannot be done." Jesse Livermore, How to Trade In Stocks, Chapter 1, The Challenge of Speculation 

 

Quick overview of Jesse's life.

He made money by exploiting insider information and the fact that information was slow to travel between exchanges.  He tells a story about a rival on the trading floor lip-reading the telegrapher's order.  So in other words, a man of his times.

Once his lucky streak was up, he lost everything and resorted to selling technical analysis courses (which he himself never used to make money).

He died penniless and broke, shot himself in the head.

Yep, there's your day trading model right there :D 

Edited by dmedin
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6 minutes ago, HMB said:

mean... previous 1m R taken out, then just through next round level (13250), and immediately some stop hunters take profit...

 

Germany 30 Cash (£1)_20200915_05.56.png

...finally got the meaning of "mean reversion"...  note to self:  anticipate meanness at all meaningful levels...

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13 minutes ago, HMB said:

mean... previous 1m R taken out, then just through next round level (13250), and immediately some stop hunters take profit...

 

Germany 30 Cash (£1)_20200915_05.56.png

Intraday volume is difficult to read and not as clear as on mn, wk and daily charts, consider oscillators.

image.thumb.png.f76e5d00ba37ac2e682a3108f060dd2d.png

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8 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Intraday volume is difficult to read and not as clear as on mn, wk and daily charts, consider oscillators.

image.thumb.png.f76e5d00ba37ac2e682a3108f060dd2d.png

yes, could have as well been trading on that sell signal

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I wish you the best of luck in your 15 minute time frame trading journey, but I warn you now that you are going to get f*ked - financially and more importantly emotionally and in terms of lost precious time which you will never be able to claim back.

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I wish you the best of luck in your 15 minute time frame trading journey, but I warn you now that you are going to get f*ked - financially and more importantly emotionally and in terms of lost precious time which you will never be able to claim back.

Thank you.

Think I am already.

You mean other time frames are better?  why?

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4 minutes ago, HMB said:

yes, could have as well been trading on that sell signal

could have done and would have been ok but I prefer to stick to the trades in the longer term trend direction and take entries when the quicker oscillator (stoch) gets in synch. Less trades overall but higher probability.

image.thumb.png.dddd0bbc94ab6e997bff67072bf5fb3c.png

 

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9 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

could have done and would have been ok but I prefer to stick to the trades in the longer term trend direction and take entries when the quicker oscillator (stoch) gets in synch. Less trades overall but higher probability.

image.thumb.png.dddd0bbc94ab6e997bff67072bf5fb3c.png

 

thanks - think you're definitely right regarding better (unconditional) probability when trading in the the longer-term trend direction (after pullbacks/rebounds) (not much experience with stochastic, will give it a closer look)

Edited by HMB
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1 minute ago, HMB said:

thanks - think you're definitely right regarding better probability when trading in the the longer-term trend direction (after pullbacks/rebounds) (not much experience with stochastic, will give it a closer look)

stoch and cci turns around the end-zones or rsi bounces off the 50, they are all similar and make good triggers but you need to be going with the prevailing wind to increase the probability.

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6 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

they are all similar and make good triggers

makes sense.  cci sounds interesting - as it includes SD

will make checking these oscillators for various time frames a more explicit part of trade preparation

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1 hour ago, HMB said:

Thank you.

Think I am already.

You mean other time frames are better?  why?

 

Many people prefer higher time frames and do a lot better with them.

There isn't a single high-flying wealthy investment manager out there looking at minute charts, for example.

Follow established trends.  People telling you to snipe and scalp are basically leading you into the fire from where you will be burned.

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50 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

stoch and cci turns around the end-zones or rsi bounces off the 50, they are all similar and make good triggers but you need to be going with the prevailing wind to increase the probability.

 

They're not entry triggers.  They are most useful for spotting divergences.  Stop giving duff advice Tom.

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8 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

Many people prefer higher time frames and do a lot better with them.

There isn't a single high-flying wealthy investment manager out there looking at minute charts, for example.

Follow established trends.  People telling you to snipe and scalp are basically leading you into the fire from where you will be burned.

Prop firm traders and institutional traders use price ladders so are actually trading tick charts.

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11 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

They're not entry triggers.  They are most useful for spotting divergences.  Stop giving duff advice Tom.

you seem to think your few months of failed trading experience outweighs years of experience of successful traders. If thinking of looking where it's all gone wrong for you you could start there.

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3 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

you seem to think your few months of failed trading experience outweighs years of experience of successful traders. If thinking of looking where it's all gone wrong for you you could start there.

I'd rather take my advice from established figures (which is what I am reproducing in those posts)  and not from people who hawk sh!tty day trading systems and other mystical hocus-pocus created by men decades ago who turned out to be total failures in life.

Edited by dmedin
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7 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Prop firm traders and institutional traders use price ladders so are actually trading tick charts.

How do you actually know what they do, BTW?  Have you worked with them and seen what they do on a daily basis or are you getting fed by the videos they release for consumption by retail punters ...

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