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41 minutes ago, HMB said:

No, I'm not.  And for that I have plenty of evidence.

 

I recommend using TradingView's 'replay' function to do 100 trades on past data.  I think it's free for daily replays, unfortunately you have to pay for intraday replays but you can get a free 30 day trial.

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3% in 5 years or so...  

 

684208337_Germany30Cash(1)_20201016_04_04.thumb.png.6a673d78aaf25480ae9a1d3cccaeb3d4.png😐

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1389416678_Germany30_20201028_01_31.thumb.png.8e5db02ffc902e457ad4b99b80c7e1a1.png

 

...11% or so below post-outbreak high...  support around 12300-12350 couldn't stop the SAP move...  then high below that...

however complete undoing of overnight move to 12050 (or even 12200) and it would still be well in a pretty fast down-trend...  some signs of bottoming at current levels...

expecting slight rebound around the open, if that happens, and no more significant up move then, will likely close the trade at wherever it stabilizes in the very short term... 

 

also maybe useful to keep the composition in mind from time to time...:

 

image.png.7bd30461627e00fda5d1da7224c86950.png

 

 

Edited by HMB

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mean...  drop just below the overnight low on bar closing news...  stop hit, re-opened, as move seemed to halt..:786369572_Germany30_20201028_02_55.thumb.png.c0b80c94d23addabe9df55ee15bad111.png

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11 minutes ago, HMB said:

mean...  drop just below the overnight low on bar closing news...  stop hit, re-opened, as move seemed to halt..:786369572_Germany30_20201028_02_55.thumb.png.c0b80c94d23addabe9df55ee15bad111.png

stop hit again of course.  guess one to let play out for now.

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ok, last try - using my own post above as counter indicator...:880222626_Germany30_20201028_03_13.thumb.png.9d0f2c31c7f5c683e9cec7c0912383fe.png:

 

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1 minute ago, HMB said:

ok, last try - using my own post above as counter indicator...:

need to be careful around 'news' events. sudden drop last hour caused by Merkel proposing a new 2 week circuit breaker lockdown for Germany.

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Just now, Caseynotes said:

need to be careful around 'news' events. sudden drop last hour caused by Merkel proposing a new 2 week circuit breaker lockdown for Germany.

ok - thanks

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the best 'news' events are rumours that are quickly refuted causing a V reversal as price returns to it's starting point but this news seems to be straight from the horse's mouth 🙂 

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stop hit again...  the strategy with betting on short-term pre-market rebounds with tight stops at weak support levels just doesn't work.  likely it's gonna rebound on some point, but if that's from -2% or -2.8% I definitely don't know

 

another lesson (which I'll again try to learn...)  ...it's really about avoiding bad habits, isn't it.  amazing how unable to do that I seem to be

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2 minutes ago, HMB said:

stop hit again...  the strategy with betting on short-term pre-market rebounds with tight stops at weak support levels just doesn't work.  likely it's gonna rebound on some point, but if that's from -2% or -2.8% I definitely don't know

 

another lesson (which I'll again try to learn...)  ...it's really about avoiding bad habits, isn't it.  amazing how unable to do that I seem to be

trialing different strategies on demo and finding it doesn't work on a reasonable sample size no harm done. 

imho continuations are easier to play than trying to pick reversals.

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12 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

trialing different strategies on demo and finding it doesn't work on a reasonable sample size no harm done. 

imho continuations are easier to play than trying to pick reversals.

I'm back to live trading, but with small sizes.  I need to learn to deal with emotions better, which doesn't work that well in demo (it does a bit though).  But now facing having my loss limit almost reached and then having to be able to stop trading for a month, although I think there might be nice opportunities, is an experience I didn't get in demo.

Think you are very right regarding continuations vs. reversals, in particular if the short-term trend is down and we are at medium term important levels (or through them) like DAX 12000...

Similarly useful assessment I heard, is some prefer trading the middle of the trend, not the beginning or end.

need to deeply, emotionally redefine what I perceive as opportunity.  I am too contrarian in the short term.  Very often too early.  But I guess this kind of "behavior re-modelling" will require receiving a few more punches - target for now is to keep them smaller, no matter what.

Maybe I move to ETFs for now - wider spreads, but a bit smaller minimum opening sizes.

Edited by HMB

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3 minutes ago, HMB said:

I'm back to live trading, but with small sizes.  I need to learn to deal with emotions better, which doesn't work that well in demo (it does a bit though).  But now facing having my loss limit almost reached and then having to be able to stop trading for a month, although I think there might be nice opportunities, is an experience I didn't get in demo.

Think you are very right regarding continuations vs. reversals, in particular if the short-term trend is down and we are at medium term important levels (or through them) like DAX 12000...

Similarly useful assessment I heard, is some prefer trading the middle of the trend, not the beginning or end.

need to deeply, emotionally redefine what I perceive as opportunity.  I am too contrarian in the short term.  Very often too early.  But I guess this kind of "behavior re-modelling" will require receiving a few more punches - target for now is to keep them smaller, no matter what.

Maybe I move to ETFs for now - wider spreads, but a bit smaller minimum opening sizes.

fine but the point is your system/strategy should be so well honed/defined that you only need to follow the process when the chart triggers it. If you are stuck trying to make decisions on the fly you are totally reliant on some inner skill/insight that you presumably don't have yet.

picking reversals can work but not usually by newbies hence 75% retail traders net short at any one time on the US indices in spite of multi year bull runs and not coincidental 75% retail traders lose money.

 

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1 minute ago, Caseynotes said:

fine but the point is your system/strategy should be so well honed/defined that you only need to follow the process when the chart triggers it. If you are stuck trying to make decisions on the fly you are totally reliant on some inner skill/insight that you presumably don't have yet.

picking reversals can work but not usually by newbies hence 75% retail traders net short at any one time on the US indices in spite of multi year bull runs and not coincidental 75% retail traders lose money.

 

sure, you are right, maybe I should consider trading only demo for years to come.  Or just let it be and live with the (colossal) failure.  Been thinking about that, and will keep doing so - and trading with small size for a while might actually convince me to stop.

I see value in using trading to develop self-control and other more general skills, though, which may be worth a regular small loss. But there may of course be better ways, or I'm wrong with this completely - haven't made up my mind about that, either, yet.

Regarding systems - I think I'm just too far away from that - be it personality, skills or  interests.  I have a hard time to imagine that I could come up with a set of so clearly defined rules when to enter trades that leave any judgment out of the equation, and then still be profitable.  I think if something like that existed, it would have been found by others already and should stop working soon - in particular nowadays with kinda unlimited computing power and AI.  And I don't have the skills to compete in that area.

For now I'm trying to just avoid mistakes (in particular stick to loss limits) and also be more conscious about what I'm doing (e.g. formulate reasons for entry and targets) - for any system development I guess these would also be very early steps.

Monthly loss limit just got hit - back with a new trade in four weeks..!

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2 minutes ago, HMB said:

sure, you are right, maybe I should consider trading only demo for years to come.  Or just let it be and live with the (colossal) failure.  Been thinking about that, and will keep doing so - and trading with small size for a while might actually convince me to stop.

I see value in using trading to develop self-control and other more general skills, though, which may be worth a regular small loss. But there may of course be better ways, or I'm wrong with this completely - haven't made up my mind about that, either, yet.

Regarding systems - I think I'm just too far away from that - be it personality, skills or  interests.  I have a hard time to imagine that I could come up with a set of so clearly defined rules when to enter trades that leave any judgment out of the equation, and then still be profitable.  I think if something like that existed, it would have been found by others already and should stop working soon - in particular nowadays with kinda unlimited computing power and AI.  And I don't have the skills to compete in that area.

For now I'm trying to just avoid mistakes (in particular stick to loss limits) and also be more conscious about what I'm doing (e.g. formulate reasons for entry and targets) - for any system development I guess these would also be very early steps.

Monthly loss limit just got hit - back with a new trade in four weeks..!

not too many people are successful just trying to second guess the market all the time, they tend to be successful because they have developed a system that they can operate without thinking and has a positive expectancy proved by ongoing testing.

Part of that testing is the demo stage and will prove many ideas wrong, finding something that survives demo may well take time but if does then move onto the live testing at minimal size.

That's the stage when you learn many lessons in actual trading that can never be learnt on demo but if you don't have any system at all then it resorts to just guessing and hoping and you will break yourself on it. 

Devise a system that can survive demo first and it might have a chance live. 

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13 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

not too many people are successful just trying to second guess the market all the time, they tend to be successful because they have developed a system that they can operate without thinking and has a positive expectancy proved by ongoing testing.

Part of that testing is the demo stage and will prove many ideas wrong, finding something that survives demo may well take time but if does then move onto the live testing at minimal size.

That's the stage when you learn many lessons in actual trading that can never be learnt on demo but if you don't have any system at all then it resorts to just guessing and hoping and you will break yourself on it. 

Devise a system that can survive demo first and it might have a chance live. 

You mean a system of precisely defined conditions based on observable, quantitative data (for example a purely technical trading system)?

Did you not just earlier (rightly) point out that one needs to be careful around news events?  And does this not involve a subjective component (judgment) that involves thinking and can only be tested within limits? 

 

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1 minute ago, HMB said:

You mean a system of precisely defined conditions based on observable, quantitative data (for example a purely technical trading system)?

Did you not just earlier (rightly) point out that one needs to be careful around news events?  And does this not involve a subjective component (judgment) that involves thinking and can only be tested within limits? 

 

if your system has a contingency for news or market open periods of high volatility fine.

What I meant by be careful was just put your hands in the air and step away from the key board!

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Just now, Caseynotes said:

if your system has a contingency for news or market open periods of high volatility fine.

What I meant by be careful was just put your hands in the air and step away from the key board!

ok

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image.png

Dax has been volatile today. Down 600, Dax down 4% on COVID fears. US open in 10 minutes. 

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