ASX Index

[Guest Zero]

Australian Unemployment data at 11:30am AEDT (Sydney time) - could spice things up a bit (currencies perhaps??). 

 

Again, interesting... - the Dow had another "random" range of 111 today (11/11) and the SPI closed at 5111.  Mmm mmmm. 

[Guest Zero]

Early weakness/selling on the ASX persisted till the amazing jobs data sent things a bit wild - $AUD went up 800pips, selling died down, but the market didn't know what till do - until about 12:30ish when the choppiness kicked in (was slow-mo ranging until that) and pushed the market higher.  Bit random - sold it straight back down after 1pm.

The PM looked to be ranging but had a detour - a stronger spike than I expected - the Dow took off and China sold off - the ASX had some business higher up - which it did and then promptly fell back - ending the session near where it started. 

I closed out my suggested range-trade, again unecessarily - and didn't really trade at all.  I would 95% of the time not trade news (like today's) so left the AM alone. 

 

My suggestions were not helpful today at all really.  Sorry.  Too vague - re-reading them.  Made sense to me, but that's pointless.  The in-between surges would also have been confusing and would have made the rest obscure.  I didn't expect the large surge from the jobs data for the $AUD either, that skewed my AM a bit.  I'll have to improve my "pre-emptive writing".

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest Zero]

Well, an obvious negative lead, with the SPI already down about 70.  This makes it tricky - the cash will have to fall and the SPI will have to either wait or rally till they meet then go on their way in sync.  Once that settles - maybe 10:15ish, let the market get the overnight move out of the way - selling - and set a low, where it most likely will rally into a steady 1pm.  Then I feel the selling will return in the PM, so look to fade a rally (I would).  Close off PM lows. 

[Guest Zero]

Yesterday I thought I saw IG's prices were biased higher, despite the market selling off into the close.  Not sure if that is manually set or a quirk of their pricing model.  Yet it would have been costly (to IG) if most were shorting the fall, or even the range. 

[Guest Zero]

Hmm, bit of craziness to end the week.  No time for sneaking off early on Friday.  On paper looks like a good day to trade - real-time it went from selling, to a strong bounce, to absolutely flat.  Then out of nowhere, a huge surge, which then fell back fiercely, bounced strongly, then sold down (as it should have!) into the close. 

As suggested, a buy off the early selling was a good trade - I was out so had to be 2.5hours pre-emptive, so took a small position for the range.  Anticipating the selling to dry up and then flat into 1pm as suggested. 

Then in the PM there was a monster rally - I was too too early to short it as suggested, so had to double down (triple or more - which I could have left and they expired profitably to 0 but I had to match out other losses so had to close them real-time) on selling, and close out all of that mess flat.  That put me out for the better trades of fading the surge and then bounce, which as suggested was a good trade.  Close of cash the SPI was off PM lows - but but after the cash closed, the SPI sold off strongly by some more.  All in all a stupid session - who is strong enough to ramp the market 25pts then sell it down 30, bounce 20 more then sell off about 10?  After a dead 2 hours into 1pm.

So a good day got sabotaged by that.  Not made easier by IG's restrictions - days like this they are annoying!

 

Strong selling on large above average volume today, nothing was spared really. 

[Guest Zero]

Expect rallies to be sold, with a weak Friday night lead and now a weak Sunday-indicies lead (IG only).  1pm might see a bit of a bounce, then selling in the PM, steady on close. 

I will be distracted this week with other (house) duties, so may not trade at all?  Will still watch and offer some suggestions. 

[Guest Zero]

Rallies were sold off, as was the close and 1pm bounce.  Yet the rally off the opening was impressive.  Shouldn't trade distracted, was 1min too early and paid the price.  Tricky as the ASX caught up to a SPI steady on close - mucking up any binary strategy set from the rest of the day. 

After the weak start and rally, there were some quick moves on a good volume day.

[Guest Zero]

A strong lead will relax and then find a level, consolidate gains.  Largish range perhaps.  Close will probably try to rally and fade. 

[Guest Zero]

Never seen that before - well that strong - after the cash close the market went to the moon!  Put on almost as much in those 10mins than the prev 2 hours.  Not normal - meant that you either got a once-in 6month deal on the best risk-reward ever (if you bought the rally), or not.  I suggested a PM rally, but expected it to fade.  I went with that even though I had my doubts - small position as I wasn't watching the market all day.  That set me back - gives me some homework for the rest of the week. 

The AM did as suggested, consolidating the overnight gains, and keeping at a decent say 30pt range.  Dow futures perked up around 12:30pm at that kept the ASX/SPI confident.  Asian markets also were strong following the good onight lead. 

 

A strong day on the ASX, large range too - might be some more tomorrow - hopefully!  Good days to trade if you get a whiff of the move early. 

[Guest Zero]

Some of the over-exuberance of yesterday will likely be given back today - the weaker start despite the US a starting point.  Likely to find a range after settling up all of that.  A sell bias about 30mins pre-expiry.  In the PM probably similar (range, widish), selling into the close but then could pop higher on expiry.  Sell 30mins pre-expiry buy near (2mins) pre-expiry - yet that would have to be verified real-time. 

[Guest Zero]

Well, the SPI had things to do today and wasn't going to let anything stop it.  The weaker start settled as suggested, and ranged into 1pm.  The sell 30min out was a bit too accurate (pure guess) - but should have been closed out for safety, as the bounce (I edited this out this morning) was a bit too fierce.  Stupid really.  But anyway - could have traded either, or the range over the morning.  I gifted IG some spare change by buying the wrong binary - silly mouse click while watching a few different sets of prices.  They still filled me - I got in the one I wanted but it was too close to expiry and I was annoyed so just closed it out to undo my mistake. 

PM was just a grind higher.  Hard to read, hard to trade.  Finally hit the magic numbers and then sold off strongly, after ranging at the highs for the last 30mins.  Shorting up there safe! and a good trade as suggested.  The buy on close was only good for a range - didn't pop higher as expected but real-time that was clear. 

 

Miners were hit hard today, banks off their early lows.   

[Guest Zero]

Hmm, despite a strong lead, I'd be looking to sell the strength/rallies (maybe 2 over the AM).  The expiry should be steady, the PM rally might have a kick but I'd be still looking to sell into that. 

Should be an interesting day - intentional moves either keeping it above/below a certain level. 

[jbtrader]

Very strong mkt.

Would you still be selling this?

[Guest Zero]

Hi jbtrader,

 

I was just going to post and saw your post - no I would hold off on shorting on close.  Too strong.  The kick up I expected could fade from here, 5230 sell, but not worth the risk.  Buy on a pullback possibly.  Hard one.  I've been out so couldn't trade the up move - the better trade.  10mins to close better make up my mind...

[Guest Zero]

Well - a strong day to state the obvious.  SPI strength sold off a lot of the AM - early, then mid morning (2 good sells), but then the strength held, and kept the market high.  Rallies were sold early PM too, but the underlying buying was getting stronger - and around the time of jbtrader's post it was kicking higher.  I was out so missed that suggested move - but also wasn't going to fade it.  I was going to post that change of plan to correct my pre-open suggested trade, and was glad someone else (@jbtrader ) was on the job.  I bought a small trade on the close, but thought I would hedge it with some cheaper sells (decent risk-reward) - they were just too close and so cost me lunch.  It was looking perfect until the last 20sec...!  Honestly, can change like that.     

 

Today my suggested trades were better for pure futures/CFD's.  My suggestions are normally neutral, with a slight leaning towards binaries (their wording) - but in general it is a suggestion for the SPI.  The idea is to trade however you feel comfortable - and today CFD's were a good choice.  I am flexible, and am considering mixing things up a bit in the future (a mix of binaries and futures).

 

The market was on a mission today, option expiry.  It wanted to be below 5200, above 5150 on open, then unwinding all of that into the PM.  These days are normally steamroller days.  Wouldn't be surprised to see a continuation tomorrow, but I'll wait and see about that.  Strong futures volume, cash average - well banks strong, rest equal or below average say.  The $AUD (and Kiwi I presume) was stronger all day too. 

[Guest Zero]

There's been a new "move" happening all this week - I've noticed as it's mucked up my 1pm binaries.  Well from memory - not a scientific rule - it seems around 12:30pm (ASX time) the Asian markets and the Dow get a wriggle on and drags the SPI up with it.  Was good for about 20pts for the DOW, enough to pull the ASX higher and muck up any binary strategy.  I'll keep an eye on it.  Often you'll see such a move, but this has been more consistent this week.  I don't like it - maybe now I've outed it it might go away - a-la Quantum Physics? 

 

 

[Guest Zero]

Today I expect some early selling to stabilise, and then recover into 1pm.  Then consolidate near there into the close.  Real-time there should be a few more clues as to how the day will evolve,end. 

 

Should be a good day for binaries - in that there should be a lot to chose from.  The SPI is close to yesterday's close, so there will be 10pt ranges, ladders, tunnels, and then all that x2 if it is changing from positive to negative and back? 

[Guest Zero]

Some early selling turned into a crazy spike higher, which set the day's parameters.  I was too slow to get any trade on - the move was so quick.  After that steadied, I sensed a tunnel binary was safe so got in way early (daily +-30) but had to close it out in the afternoon as I stepped out and couldn't keep an eye on it.  Then that selling continued a bit, stabilised, then surged higher into 1pm as suggested.  A good trade - and there were a few different binaries available to trade it.  Pure ladder, up/down, ranges. 

The PM was a bit silly really - well it was as expected but out of nowhere another surge to the day's high, then brought back lower, then it behaved, ranging into the close.  On the close, the SPI was selling off strongly over 9mins, making my buy suggestion look rubbish.  But the last 30second rally was 20pts! - again silly, but - and that drove everything higher.

Not a bad day to trade - I traded my suggested moves - but got a bit too fancy for my own good and gave back too much. 

Good average volume, Dow futures flat over the session, Asian indicies lower.  We tidied up from yesterday and then went on autopilot - well the algo's seemed to decide in the first 20mins what was going to happen then no arguments.

 

Not my best week of trading - too many distractions, missed gift moves, mucked up standard moves.  Then there's the hard days.... Hopefully anyone trading my suggestions didn't do as I did and had a profitable week.  

[Guest Zero]

No sign of that 12:30pm surge I outed yesterday.  See - quantum physics - works! 

[Guest Zero]

Monday, expect early weakness to develop into buying, which should range at these higher levels into close?

[Guest Zero]

The SPI started weaker then rallied quickly, then met the cash open and they both sold off a little into the early AM, then steadied, and then steadily rose into 1pm.  I was out so couldn't buy as suggested, but shorted the 1pm top.  Then the market consolidated and ranged at these higher levels as suggested.  Buying into close was hard as IG was "mispricing"  their binaries.  I wonder... if they were reading my suggestions then it was a good move BUT it meant I couldn't buy anything reasonably priced.  Even out of the money binaries (3:40pm to close above 5272.40 when the XJO was 5271) was up at a ridiculous 65-75!!  (should be more like 45-55, above 50 to allow for the positive day).  That will burn them big time one day if they're not careful.  I will be on the spot to make sure... But today they got away with it and priced me out of the market.  I had a hedge for the partial upside and most of the downside that ended up costing me, so the high prices I paid for the up move were a negative to me today.  !hmm. 

YET some good suggestions for anyone starting the week.  Today's suggestions alone could have made enough to have the week off if you bought strongly and confidently. 

 

But I might go dark for a while as an experiment?  If anyone wants they can email me - but I might be more random these days in my postings. 

 

The ASX had a good day anyway, with BHP decent volume, the rest less than average.  WOW a strong day (Woolworths, our big supermarket).  The $AUD was a standout today, falling strongly. 

[Guest Zero]

 This was a double-up.  Deleted.  Odd.

[Guest Zero]

I've been dark the past few days doing a few black-op trades.  An interesting week to trade - there's a lot going on and it's probably not helped by Thanksgiving (any offshore money in the ASX ie. US traders/trading - would be tidying up a few days earlier than usual).  There are large moves, usually unpredictable (ie. unwinding hedges so the big players doing whatever the need to, and it can be seemingly random) yet in hindsight controlled to the point.  Today a good example. 

I've been watching, busy, and getting in an out of trouble. 

 

YET I am posting to give IG credit - I took a good sized Futures/CFD position in the last minute of the night session trading today at the session high (short of course) and IG filled me no dramas.  Held that until the market opened again at 9:50am - and IG filled my exit no dramas either and gave me a few points price improvement. 

 

I think that is brilliant actually - at the times of high volatility and probably lighter liquidity, IG were up to it.  It's what makes IG so far ahead of any other broker/CFD provider in my opinion.   

 

I don't recommend trading like that either - yet if you ever have to or want to, IG can. 

[Guest FoxTrader]

hi  - yes, I like the " I don't recommend trading like that either - yet if you ever have to or want to, IG can." - well said.

 

Thought I would share this from Angus Nicholson, IG Market Analyst in Melbourne...

 

ASX

The banks have helped drive the ASX back above 5200. ANZ ’s American Depositary Receipt (ADR) rose 1.26% overnight pointing to a decent session today on the ASX. Financials had a strong session rising 1%. But almost all sectors bar materials and energy were up on the day.

BHP’s ADR was savaged overnight losing 3.5% despite no major moves in the commodities market. The stock broke into the A$18 handle as it lost 3.6%, its lowest level since 2009. Concerns over the viability of BHP’s credit rating and its progressive dividend policy seem to have been the drivers behind the drop.

The materials sector as a whole lost 1.2%, with RIO and Fortescue also trading down on the day.

While on the other end of the spectrum, the strong performing healthcare sector continued to see further gains as it rose 1.2%. Sector bellwether CSL touched A$100 for the first time since 6 August, seemingly signalling a full recovery for the healthcare sector after the August/September selloff.

The big key for the ASX going forward will be whether the financials can break through their October highs. This will largely be the deciding factor as to whether the ASX itself can break through its October high around 5350.

 

 

happy days mate

[Guest Zero]

Hi 

 

Thanks for posting that.  It's a great summary.  Today I had to look twice when I saw the BHP price.  Seems a bit unreal. 

Money probably moving into the ever reliable banks from BHP (our market can be a bit boring that way). 

Today was option expiry too for individual shares, so that would have had some impact on the day.  It was a cracker of a day - the move on the cash open (10am) was amazing.  It just melted up about 50pts! in minutes, then tacked on another 30 or so before lunch.  But that was when the algo's said enough - dropped it down.  All very controlled - yet the size of the move was about twice what I expected.  If you were too keen on a short you would have been margin called or had the worst day until the close, where you might have been able to sneak out with a small loss. 

Interesting the SPI seems to find the 5225 level quite important yesterday (open) and today (close). 

Would have been a great day for futures/cfd's or binaries too.  I was having the day off just to "re-focus". 

Interesting too - Chris Weston (IG) noticed today that the base metals were up quite strongly (over 3%) with no real obvious driver.  Makes BHP's fall more interesting. 

 

I like the analysis you posted - thanks.  There's a big month ahead !

[Guest Zero]

A massive day - so many opportunities.  Such a tricky day too.  I am annoyed I was only half-on-the-job. 

The faux opening rally probably had many excited (talk of interesting technical levels etc) but it was quickly erased, and then some.  Ranged into 1pm (the range of that session was about 50 meaning about 40 up 50 back : imagine the trades in that sort of move!) off the AM lows. This was despite a sudden selling of the Dow and China around 12:30pm.  The reason was irrelevant for the time (still haven't checked if there is a reason).  We held up - then after 1pm had some catching up to do on the downside.  Made new lows but by 3pm had decided enough is enough, and didn't go lower.  Small rally faded into the close, which I shorted just to niggle the market and let him know that I was watching his antics.  For a daily range of over 70 it could have been a jackpot week's end.  Yet the moves were erratic as the volume on the thin side.  May have meant some of the moves were exaggerated.  All the more reason to trade, yet you needed to be fully alert and on the edgy side of even. 

 

BHP still under $19.00.  Gold seems to be weaker and a largish move for the Australian/Asian session.

 

Looking forward to trading next week, hopefully with no distractions.  Monday might kick things off with a bang!  (IMF meeting, end of month). 

[Guest FoxTrader]

hi  - also looking forward to Monday, LOTS of activity expected hey...saw this report early today, from Angus Nicholson, IG Melbourne...

 

ASX

The move in metals markets over the past few days has been welcomed by the battered materials sector. The pullback in the US dollar has also been a boost to energy and materials sectors. The good performance of European markets (US markets were closed for Thanksgiving) also helped set the ASXup for a strong start.

Good buying for the banks helped the index throughout most the day, but poor data out of China and Japan and a further weakening of the CNY midpoint saw the ASX pull back alongside all the other major Asian markets. After almost touching 5260 at the open, the index proceeded to lose over 1% from that point.

General market sentiment clearly moved down after developments in Asia. All the banks opened up on the day, but by the afternoon the whole financial sector was down 0.4% with all the top five banks in the red.

The energy sector was the best performing, managing to still gain 1% despite selling across the index, with large caps Woodside and Origin seeing the best performance.

Large cap diversified miners BHP and Rio Tinto both managed to find some respite as heavily sold metals prices saw a bit of a jump. Their huge market cap weighting managed to help keep the materials sector in the green, as it added 0.1%.

 

Happy days

[Guest Zero]

Hi FoxTrader,

 

Thanks - a much more detailed and technical than my summary, which is probably more informative for most.  At least we (me and Angus) agree!  - goes to show I am not making it up.

 

I see he puts the move in China down to them fiddling their peg?  The Dow futures (well IG's value) is down 71 now, China was down over 4% into it's close.  The SPI has taken a bit more off the table, but isn't panicking ... yet? 

 

 

[Guest Zero]

Monday - expect a weaker tone to the week, with Monday ranging with a negative bias.  Selling spikes/rallies higher. 

Dec could see early selling which rallies back to unwind this by the end of year. 

[jbtrader]

Thanks Zero

 

Watching closely with my usual longer term outlook.

 

Cheers,

 

JB.