Where will Wall Street go from here?

[dmedin]

Here is some expert technical analysis for you to enjoy, you lucky cretins

Wall Street hit the magical 88.6% retracement and flopped out!  The MACD is very far above zero and is now about to cross down below the signal line!  An ominous sign indeed!  This suggests momentum is flagging!  And the price is a million light years above its 200 daily MA, so a nice little 'dump' is in order a la 'reversion to the mean'!

Against this view is the fact that we have price above 20 and 50 MAs and the fact that 20 MA crossed 50 MA.  But those candles don't portend price rises in the future!

 

Edited October 20, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

59% of IG clients are short on this index.

Most of IG's clients lose money, but I've found that you can't just take a position opposite to them and expect to win reliably.  (This is partly because the number that IG publishes is dubious and might be incorrect, BTW.)

The fact is that most of IG's retail clients will lose money whether they go long or short.  It's worth paying attention to this number but get it from an alternative source, like DailyFX or program your own thing-a-ma-jig to pull the raw data.  😘

[dmedin]

Look for a break down through 28200 to sell, down to 27879!

 

[dmedin]

Look, a bearish pennant!  What more evidence do you need! 

 

[dmedin]

Of course, if it doesn't break 28200 then we could buy 😘

 

[dmedin]

Keep an eye on it Kathleen.

 

[dmedin]

BUY 🤪

[dmedin]

Well, honey bunny?  Maybe the 20 MA is support after all 😘

 

[dmedin]

Are you confused with all those lines and indicators on the chart, giving contradictory signals?  I sure am 😘

[dmedin]

Look Kathleen 🤓

 

[dmedin]

Oi noi broin coi!  🤪

[dmedin]

I guess we shouldn't have bought under the 200 MA, right?

 

[dmedin]

Oh dear 😢

 

[dmedin]

Yes, it was ill-advised of us to go long on Wall Street.

Should have stuck to the initial impressions from the daily chart.  🤓

 

[dmedin]

Oh Geoffrey, you're such a tease! 🤓

 

[dmedin]

Third time's a charm, short Wall Street!

 

[dmedin]

Wall Street stages another comeback 🤯

[dmedin]

Fourth time's a charm, Peregrin Gamgee!

 

[dmedin]

Wall Street did indeed break our level.  We were just too hasty to put a trade on (by going long not only once but twice).  If you zoom out on the hourly chart you see it is in a downtrend, no need for a MA.  We went long because we thought we saw a support area being respected, but forgot that you need confirmation of a new high (and especially so when price has been moving down sharply).  Also the daily candles were not strong.

 

[dmedin]

So where would we go short now?  Those long-legged blighters don't look encouraging Eileen.  🤔 

Ideally we'd get some kind of reversal pattern off the Fib level overhead before going in long.  

 

[dmedin]

Something like this would be useful, thanks toots 😘

 

[HMB]

5 hours ago, dmedin said:

Wall Street did indeed break our level.  We were just too hasty to put a trade on (by going long not only once but twice).  If you zoom out on the hourly chart you see it is in a downtrend, no need for a MA.  We went long because we thought we saw a support area being respected, but forgot that you need confirmation of a new high (and especially so when price has been moving down sharply).  Also the daily candles were not strong.

 

looks quite directionless to me, and now roughly back at a level around which we've been oscillating for two months:

I'd say high rebound probability, the slightly lower low at this stage is not significant enough IMHO

 

[THT]

16 hours ago, dmedin said:

Fourth time's a charm, Peregrin Gamgee!

 

As our very old friend WD Gann said "4th Time at a level and it often goes through"

Same with the FTSE100 Index yesterday - bingo

[dmedin]

It did break 28200 but then it was very strongly supported by a price level well above the next Fib down below.

 

[dmedin]

61.8% is support, but the MACD is pointing down, so - I have no idea.  Does that mean don't trade it at all?  Wait until it rebuilds momentum?

 

[dmedin]

A very positive green candle bouncing off 50 day SMA, 20 SMA > 50 SMA, but the MACD is still negative.

[dmedin]

We'll go long when it breaks 28570 🐮