This is it! The big one! Err maybe not, contrarians on alert!

[Mercury]

At some point it has to be the big one right?  But usually it comes as a surprise, this is the classic point of a black swan event, it is unexpected.  So that means the slow build up negatives do not amount to a black swan so therefore this is NOT it.  That said a stock market crash doesn't have to be a fall off a cliff moment like in 1987 so maybe...

 

At any rate my thought is this, that there is a **** of a lot of negative press noise around the US election and Fed rate rise risk (or in reality the risk that they won't!) and Brexit and so on.  Recently I saw an article about how if NFP Friday is a red day this will be the longest losing streak for global stocks since 1980.  But wait a minute how can that be?  The index hasn't fallen that far!  The stat means longest number of consecutive days in the red, even if just by 1 point.  Lies, **** lies and Stats and the regular punter only sees these headlines and not the real facts.

 

I can't help wondering if we will either see a rush back into risk and a rally before the "real" drop begins.  Even if this is the beginning of the end expect a serious retrace rally before it really gets going.

 

Bottom line is contrarians are on alert for the opposite of what the mainstream is expecting AND watch out for bear traps!